Tablets expected to make up 75% of the mobile computing market by 2017

Posted:
in iPad edited February 2014
Traditional notebook PCs are expected to be outsold by tablets three-to-one within the next three years, less than a decade after Apple kicked off the post-PC revolution with the iPad.

NPD Data


The forecast comes in a Thursday report from market research firm NPD DisplaySearch, which predicts that businesses and consumers will be snapping up more than 450 million tablets per year by 2017.

Fueling the shift, NPD expects the average selling price of tablets to fall slightly -- from $311 in 2014 to $296 in 2017 -- as economies of scale make display production less costly and manufacturers move to smaller tablet sizes. Traditional PC makers will be forced to follow the trend, NPD believes, leading to even more savings for consumers thanks to increased competition.

According to NPD senior analyst Richard Shim, "momentum for the tablet PC market is in full swing as they have become the dominant mobile PC form factor. Competition is expected to increase as traditional notebook PC brands, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell update their product portfolios to emphasize tablet PCs."

Much of the growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets, which NPD predicts will account for more than 60 percent of mobile PC shipments by 2017. Those regions overwhelmingly prefer the tablet form factor already -- traditional notebooks book just 30 percent of sales, with tablets taking the remainder.

If true, the shift would be good news for Apple. When counting tablets, the Cupertino, Calif.-based company already takes home nearly 20 percent of the mobile computing market.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 26
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    But many predictions I have seen say that everyone who wants an iPad will soon have one and then Apple will be doomed. Once tablets (the iPad specifically) are perfected (very soon I suspect) how often will one have to upgrade his iPad? Apple seems to not orphan its equipment like the Windows of yore and Android of now. Android updating is not so obviously going to be a problem in sales as the Android OS you get is the OS you get to keep. Want a new Android OS; toss device to back of sock draw and purchase new.
    And how well do droid tablets stand the wear of time? Do they just suddenly blank out to the eternal hell that is special to droids? Or are they more like the Energiser Bunny and just keep banging away on that drum.

    What a complicated world predicting has become.
    (2nd time to post this puppy)
  • Reply 2 of 26

    This development is expected. Jobs and company were visionaries to see the coming post-PC era and steer Apple towards taking full advantage of it. 

     

    I actually think that there will be a post post-PC era very soon where wearable technologies will more important than tablets or mobile phones. This is why I believe Apple may want to release an iWatch like device and Google is working on Google Glass.

  • Reply 3 of 26
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,664member
    It's all those mysterious "white box" tablets that no one ever sees although I did spot Big Foot with one.

    Prediction the future in tech is a fool's errand.
  • Reply 4 of 26
    According to NPD senior analyst Richard Shim, "momentum for the tablet PC market is in full swing as they have become the dominant mobile PC form factor. Competition is expected to increase as traditional notebook PC brands, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell update their product portfolios to emphasize tablet PCs."

    I remember in January 2010, when Steve Jobs announced the iPad. Two things happened: (1) people snickered at the name, and (2) haters were saying nobody was buying tablets and that the iPad would be "Steve's Newton".

    VINDICATION OF A VISIONARY.
  • Reply 5 of 26

    And shortly after, Apple will discontinue the laptop as a concept. Just like I’ve been saying for years.

  • Reply 6 of 26
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post





    I remember in January 2010, when Steve Jobs announced the iPad. Two things happened: (1) people snickered at the name, and (2) haters were saying nobody was buying tablets and that the iPad would be "Steve's Newton".



    VINDICATION OF A VISIONARY.

    Interesting you should say that, Newton.

     

    I just recently read "Dogfight" (Good read.) about Google and Apple and it said SJ was amazed at introduction the muted response of the iPad. People, indeed, just did not get it. I re-watched the keynote and it there were pretty much no oohs and ahs like there was with the iPhone. Unbelievable. It is surely a magical device.

     

    The iPad Air and iPad Retina are the best tablets and the Apple eco-system, from mobile to OSX is the best, bar none! :)  

     

    Best.

  • Reply 7 of 26

    This could be very bad news for Apple in the long run. With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough. They won't be selling at the premium prices Apple demands. There is no doubt that Apple will improve their software when needed to remain a leader, but remember that they don't always lead. Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

     

    An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. Those products will be grabbing the majority of sales. If Apple can't make a tablet that totally blows them out of the water as the original iPad did, then Apple won't be able to earn the same profits they are earning now with tablets.

  • Reply 8 of 26
    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

    With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough.

     

    Windows has had 30 years and it’s still not good enough.

  • Reply 9 of 26
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     

     

    Windows has had 30 years and it’s still not good enough.




    They don't count. They can only do good servers. Their consumer products have been crap since..... Well I can't say how long because I started with XP. I'm sure people who used their operating systems before that would be able to give a better opinion than I.

     

    It's funny. I don't even consider Microsux in any of my thoughts of future computing. They are irrelevant in my mind. They just don't figure into anything in the future.

  • Reply 10 of 26

    "Told you so" says Steve Jobs.

  • Reply 11 of 26
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

     

    This could be very bad news for Apple in the long run. With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough. They won't be selling at the premium prices Apple demands. There is no doubt that Apple will improve their software when needed to remain a leader, but remember that they don't always lead. Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

     

    An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. Those products will be grabbing the majority of sales. If Apple can't make a tablet that totally blows them out of the water as the original iPad did, then Apple won't be able to earn the same profits they are earning now with tablets.


     

    Android will suffer the same fate as MS. It's hard coded into the business model. Watch as it fractures, gets more riddled with bugs, security issues etc as they all fight for control. It's just new, they had a chance to start afresh, that's all.

  • Reply 12 of 26

    Look at the last category on the graph. It says Ultra-slim PC shipments. That number is going up. Are these things like the Mac Mini? ASUS has been making tiny XP machines for a while. HP just started selling a very small i7 equipped box that is perhaps as small as the Mini. It is for business customers only.

     

    We've heard of Chromebooks for a while. Google also puts Chrome OS into desktop machines called Chromeboxes. ASUS will be offering one in March for only $179. It has the Celeron Haswell chip that is in the popular Acer C720 Chromebook. The NUC boxes from Intel are also tiny machines that are catching on as HTPCs. To make those work one must buy RAM and drives separately as well as supplying an OS. This graphs shows that the desktop machine is not totally dead and a new breed of desktop machine is growing in popularity.

  • Reply 13 of 26
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member
    . This graphs shows that the desktop machine is not totally dead and a new breed of desktop machine is growing in popularity.

    No. It does not
  • Reply 14 of 26
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

     

    An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. 


    Forget something? Windows tablets.

  • Reply 15 of 26
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

     



    It's funny. I don't even consider Microsux in any of my thoughts of future computing. They are irrelevant in my mind. They just don't figure into anything in the future.


    I hope you didn't mean this because they have a new CEO.

  • Reply 16 of 26
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

     

     Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

     

     


     

    um... remember when the first windows 7 phone did not have copy and paste?  before you can predict the future- remember the past.

    and knowing how annoyed my android friends are that their device will not get kit-kat, predicting the next 6 months is more difficult than we might think.

  • Reply 17 of 26
    emesemes Posts: 239member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

     



    They don't count. They can only do good servers. Their consumer products have been crap since..... Well I can't say how long because I started with XP. I'm sure people who used their operating systems before that would be able to give a better opinion than I.


    Microsoft currently makes amazing input hardware in their Sculpt Ergonomic Desktop. Windows currently powers 90.60% of laptops and desktops. The Xbox One sold over a million units in the first 24 hours. Their cloud service rivals that of Amazon. Skype currently has over 50 million users. Xbox music lets anyone with a Microsoft account stream any song under 10 minutes for free. And anyone who says the Surface is crap has obviously never used one.

     

    Oh, and there's Steve Gleason

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

     

    It's funny. I don't even consider Microsux in any of my thoughts of future computing. They are irrelevant in my mind. They just don't figure into anything in the future.


    Keep telling yourself that. Microsoft has been around for 39 years and they're still relevant. And you forget that Windows Embedded is in many real-time devices and POS devices like cash registers. When Microsoft is gone, who's going to take up that job? Apple? Hardly.

  • Reply 18 of 26
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Emes View Post

     

    Microsoft currently makes amazing input hardware in their Sculpt Ergonomic Desktop. Windows currently powers 90.60% of laptops and desktops. The Xbox One sold over a million units in the first 24 hours. Their cloud service rivals that of Amazon. And anyone who says the Surface is crap has obviously never used one.

     


    i had the misfortune of using the the first surface for 8 months at work.  it was dreadful.  it was slow, the battery was weedy, the orientation change was very slow (landscape to portrait), and it was heavy.  using internet explorer was no fun either- everything was so small, the buttons and boxes of the window were so small and i had to just Alt+f4 my way out of everything.  

    I even went to the MS store to get some help and tricks to make it easier since the business made us use the surface.  it never got easier, we just learned to put up with it.  

  • Reply 19 of 26
    emesemes Posts: 239member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by revenant View Post

     

    i had the misfortune of using the the first surface for 8 months at work.  it was dreadful.  it was slow, the battery was weedy, the orientation change was very slow (landscape to portrait), and it was heavy.  using internet explorer was no fun either- everything was so small, the buttons and boxes of the window were so small and i had to just Alt+f4 my way out of everything.  

    I even went to the MS store to get some help and tricks to make it easier since the business made us use the surface.  it never got easier, we just learned to put up with it.  




    They made a new one. Thinner, faster, lighter, cheaper.

     

    You must have been using the original Surface Pro, because I can't see how 1.5 pounds is heavy.

  • Reply 20 of 26
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Emes View Post

     



    They made a new one. Thinner, faster, lighter, cheaper.

     

    You must have been using the original Surface Pro, because I can't see how 1.5 pounds is heavy.


    right, you never specified, i am just saying i used one extensively.  

     

    and come on, people complain about the iPad being heavy at 1.3 pounds.

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