and I'm planning on selling asap on monday....its already gained like 2 points since I bought it...not to shabby
I missed out on the biggest stock oppurtunity with aapl ever, since then I'm left with ALOT of aapl stock but nothing to do with it, that why I hope whatever apple has up its sleeves helps them achieve their goal(doubling their market share) cause if that happens I'll gain mondo profit on all my various aapl purchases made throughout the past 3 years
[quote] No, it usually falls after keynotes. Buy and then dump first thing Monday morning. <hr></blockquote>
There was just a Wall Street Journal article on this that was pretty misleading. They point out that Apple stock usually goes up before a MacWorld, in this case about 40% since October 1. Of course that was right when Apple hit its post September 11 low. If you go to Yahoo and compare the performance of Apple and Gateway for the last three months you will see that Gateway outperformed Apple. If anything Apple has not done as well as other tech stocks in the run up to MacWorld this time, suggesting that big announcements are not already priced in.
The Wall Street Journal points out that AAPL has fallen after 3 out of the last 5 MacWorlds. Well, it is also 3 out of the last 6. I don't really remember the specifics before that, but if there wasn't a run up after the iMac introduction there should have been. Also the stock doubled (briefly) after the announcement that M$ had invested in Apple.
You also have to remember Apple has only hyped announcements like this a couple times before, and even then they didn't promise as much. "Pro. Go. Whoa." just isn't as much of a promise as "Count on being blown away." The two times Apple has done any comparible amount of hype where for the iMac and the online store. From a stock holders point of view, both of these events were extremely important and, if anything, should have moved the stock more than they did.
So, to reiterate, 1) I do not think there has been much run up in Apple's stock (that is, whatever run up has been is entirely explained by the run up in the NASDAQ; it is not some MacWorld hype run up); 2) Apple has in the past gone both directions after MacWorld; and 3) When Apple is hyping this MacWorld so hard you have to believe they have something up their sleeves worthy of moving the stock at least a little.
Discloser and Disclaimer: I put 10% of my portfolio into Apple January calls and I intend to hold them through the keynote (I will probably hold at least some of them until Apple announces their earnings. They haven't warned yet so the earnings are unlikely to come out too far below expectations). However, whether it goes up or down really depends on whether stock mutual fund managers are impressed by the Stevenote on Monday. I have no better idea than anyone else on these boards what Steve is going to say and no insight at all into the minds of fund managers, so don't follow my lead if you aren't prepared to lose money doing so.
There is absolutely no way of knowing if AAPL is a good buy today (short-term that is, I still believe it's a very good long-term buy!), unless you have insider knowledge.
It depends. It is true that there is a trend of sell-offs right after the big trade-shows.
However, it also depends on what Apple is actually going to release tomorrow. If it fully lives up to the hype, and is priced sensitively, then I see no reason why AAPL should go down.
On the other hand, if it turns out to be much over-hyped, then the stock will surely fall.
As always, with Apple, it's a question of faith and knowledge at the same time.
Comments
and I'm planning on selling asap on monday....its already gained like 2 points since I bought it...not to shabby
I missed out on the biggest stock oppurtunity with aapl ever, since then I'm left with ALOT of aapl stock but nothing to do with it, that why I hope whatever apple has up its sleeves helps them achieve their goal(doubling their market share) cause if that happens I'll gain mondo profit on all my various aapl purchases made throughout the past 3 years
There was just a Wall Street Journal article on this that was pretty misleading. They point out that Apple stock usually goes up before a MacWorld, in this case about 40% since October 1. Of course that was right when Apple hit its post September 11 low. If you go to Yahoo and compare the performance of Apple and Gateway for the last three months you will see that Gateway outperformed Apple. If anything Apple has not done as well as other tech stocks in the run up to MacWorld this time, suggesting that big announcements are not already priced in.
The Wall Street Journal points out that AAPL has fallen after 3 out of the last 5 MacWorlds. Well, it is also 3 out of the last 6. I don't really remember the specifics before that, but if there wasn't a run up after the iMac introduction there should have been. Also the stock doubled (briefly) after the announcement that M$ had invested in Apple.
You also have to remember Apple has only hyped announcements like this a couple times before, and even then they didn't promise as much. "Pro. Go. Whoa." just isn't as much of a promise as "Count on being blown away." The two times Apple has done any comparible amount of hype where for the iMac and the online store. From a stock holders point of view, both of these events were extremely important and, if anything, should have moved the stock more than they did.
So, to reiterate, 1) I do not think there has been much run up in Apple's stock (that is, whatever run up has been is entirely explained by the run up in the NASDAQ; it is not some MacWorld hype run up); 2) Apple has in the past gone both directions after MacWorld; and 3) When Apple is hyping this MacWorld so hard you have to believe they have something up their sleeves worthy of moving the stock at least a little.
Discloser and Disclaimer: I put 10% of my portfolio into Apple January calls and I intend to hold them through the keynote (I will probably hold at least some of them until Apple announces their earnings. They haven't warned yet so the earnings are unlikely to come out too far below expectations). However, whether it goes up or down really depends on whether stock mutual fund managers are impressed by the Stevenote on Monday. I have no better idea than anyone else on these boards what Steve is going to say and no insight at all into the minds of fund managers, so don't follow my lead if you aren't prepared to lose money doing so.
It depends. It is true that there is a trend of sell-offs right after the big trade-shows.
However, it also depends on what Apple is actually going to release tomorrow. If it fully lives up to the hype, and is priced sensitively, then I see no reason why AAPL should go down.
On the other hand, if it turns out to be much over-hyped, then the stock will surely fall.
As always, with Apple, it's a question of faith and knowledge at the same time.
I wouldn't buy Apple though. They are on a knife edge.