Apple may be back on track soon.
The Winter quarter sales of somewhere around 750,000 units was pretty pathetic but I think Apple may soon be back on track and to where they were in 2000. Some of you may say they are affected by the economy, but this should only account for maybe a 10% sales decrease. In 1999 and 2000 Apple was selling between 850,000 and 1,050,000 during the slow seasons amd 1.1 - 1.4 million during Christmas.
So let's look at what it would take to get back to these healthy numbers and $100 - $200 million quarterly profits. To be fair, you have to remember that since the Wintel market has GROWN since then the same numbers would equal a smaller marketshare.
The first thing is the old iMac. Last quarter it sold almost 300,000 units. I don't think it will go down much because it hits a good price point. But the processors are still only 500 and 600 MHZ, when Apple clearly has access to 700MHZ G3s because there was a 700MHZ iMac before. Let's not write the old iMac off as yesterday's news. It will likely continue to sell well and as many or more units than the new iMac. Just because the new iMac is grabbing the headlines doesn't mean the old iMac isn't important in getting new and keeping old customers. It has a healthy niche as an entry level all in one machine. I think sales would only go up if they made all the iMac G3s 700MHZ. And I doubt that it would at all cannabalize sales of the iMac G4 or make it look any worse because it's the same MHZ. You buy the G4 for the design and the LCD and it's a great value. Why not make the iMac G3 700 MHZ or at least 700 and 600 for the low end?
In the glory days Apple was selling between 450,000 and 700,000 iMacs, so they need to sell between 150,000 and 400,000 of the iMac G4 in addition to the 300,000 old iMacs. I'd say this may be possible. They had a lot of preorders but the new iMac still might not be a big hit in the long run or it may be huge.
Powerbook sales could be a lot stronger if they increased the MHZ. If they have these new G4s that use silicon on insulator and use less power, they most likely will bump the Powerbooks to 700 and 800 MHZ soon. We could see sales go back up to 150,000 units per quarter. Hopefully within a month or two we'll see a speed bump.
And the same thing with the iBook. If they had 700MHZ G3s before what are they doing with them? When they bump the Powerbook up, then they'll bump the iBook up. I guess it makes sense that they want to keep the MHZ on the iBook lower than on the Powerbook for marketing purposes. If they bump the iBook up to 650MHZ and 750MHZ I think we'd see sales go back to the 200,000 mark, especially with the new lower prices.
And I figure the new PowerMac should sell at least 250,000 units.
So if all goes well
300,000 iMac G3
200,000 iMac G4 (conservative but optimistic)
250,000 PowerMac
150,000 PowerBook
200,000 iBook
This adds up to 1.1 million Macs per quarter. I think it's possible. And then throw on top of that iPod sales and Apple is back to $150 million quarterly profits.
What do you think Apple should do if they had faster G3s than G4s? Should they put them in the old iMac and iBook anyway. I think so. You can only sell more with a better lineup.
So let's look at what it would take to get back to these healthy numbers and $100 - $200 million quarterly profits. To be fair, you have to remember that since the Wintel market has GROWN since then the same numbers would equal a smaller marketshare.
The first thing is the old iMac. Last quarter it sold almost 300,000 units. I don't think it will go down much because it hits a good price point. But the processors are still only 500 and 600 MHZ, when Apple clearly has access to 700MHZ G3s because there was a 700MHZ iMac before. Let's not write the old iMac off as yesterday's news. It will likely continue to sell well and as many or more units than the new iMac. Just because the new iMac is grabbing the headlines doesn't mean the old iMac isn't important in getting new and keeping old customers. It has a healthy niche as an entry level all in one machine. I think sales would only go up if they made all the iMac G3s 700MHZ. And I doubt that it would at all cannabalize sales of the iMac G4 or make it look any worse because it's the same MHZ. You buy the G4 for the design and the LCD and it's a great value. Why not make the iMac G3 700 MHZ or at least 700 and 600 for the low end?
In the glory days Apple was selling between 450,000 and 700,000 iMacs, so they need to sell between 150,000 and 400,000 of the iMac G4 in addition to the 300,000 old iMacs. I'd say this may be possible. They had a lot of preorders but the new iMac still might not be a big hit in the long run or it may be huge.
Powerbook sales could be a lot stronger if they increased the MHZ. If they have these new G4s that use silicon on insulator and use less power, they most likely will bump the Powerbooks to 700 and 800 MHZ soon. We could see sales go back up to 150,000 units per quarter. Hopefully within a month or two we'll see a speed bump.
And the same thing with the iBook. If they had 700MHZ G3s before what are they doing with them? When they bump the Powerbook up, then they'll bump the iBook up. I guess it makes sense that they want to keep the MHZ on the iBook lower than on the Powerbook for marketing purposes. If they bump the iBook up to 650MHZ and 750MHZ I think we'd see sales go back to the 200,000 mark, especially with the new lower prices.
And I figure the new PowerMac should sell at least 250,000 units.
So if all goes well
300,000 iMac G3
200,000 iMac G4 (conservative but optimistic)
250,000 PowerMac
150,000 PowerBook
200,000 iBook
This adds up to 1.1 million Macs per quarter. I think it's possible. And then throw on top of that iPod sales and Apple is back to $150 million quarterly profits.
What do you think Apple should do if they had faster G3s than G4s? Should they put them in the old iMac and iBook anyway. I think so. You can only sell more with a better lineup.
Comments
Have they sold 150,000 old iMacs since Jan 7? I doubt it. And if not, then the new iMac sure has one heck of a head start.
Not that I wouldn't like to see 1Million+ Macs sold/quarter, I just don't see the old iMac as making up nearly a quarter of that 1.1million.
Anything is possible I guess. At least you're thinking. I gotta give you credit Spindler, you're always thinking (something the real Spindler didn't do much of, unless it was thinking about how to sell Apple).