Guest post request - Apple Watch

Posted:
in iPhone edited September 2014

I've searched and searched the web for somebody, somewhere to write an article online that reveal the kind of truth that seems so clear to me about the Apple Watch.  For the first time in my research about Apple, I've found nothing that captures *everything* I feel about an Apple product.  As a result, I'm hereby requesting that people hear me out and tell me why I'm crazy, or that you agree, or whatever. Here we go...

 

 

My background is of an apple insider "lurker" since 2007 that has been watching Apple's success, through this site primarily, and I've had a spectacularly good 'batting average' for predicting Apple's actual performance accurately compared to publicly available investor expectations. So far, this insight has made me a lot of money.  Right now I plan to share my latest insight free of charge.  

 

First prediction.. The Apple Watch sales will be less than expected of investors. I've been a happy iPhone, iPod (RIP), iPad, and iMac  owner, but I'm just going to 'Watch" as a bunch of idiots spend $350+ for a product that doesn't solve any consumer problem.  The first time I see someone fiddling with a "digital crown" on a 1-2" screen, I"m going to stand next to them with my iPhone and make them look like an idiot with whatever task they're trying to accomplish.

 

Second prediction.. Apple knows that their Watch is a beautiful solution to nothing today, but is also certain to be the tech. of the future.  Wearable tech. isn't at the point where it solves real problems, but Apple can't risk getting behind the competition.. and thus Samsung forced Apple's hand in a way it'd never like to admit.  Apple has plenty of financial capital, but in this case it's using it's "halo-effect" in its fan-base to sell products that will ultimately fund the product development when wearable tech becomes more feasible.

 

I spent some time today watching some nostalgic compilation video of Justin Long in those old "Get a Mac" solutions.  Apple seemed like a refreshing solution against the dreary problems of the Windows norm; investors at the time knew that they had to put up with Jobs' vision in order to get the returns they wanted.  Investors took the back seat because they believed--rightfully so-- that Jobs's vision would be better than whatever they'd come up with for a plan to be most profitable.  Nowadays, it's simply not the same situation.  Nowadays, Apple produces self-congratulating videos about tech. while secretly having a 'master-plan' for using its fan-base and social capital to fund its product development against the competition long-term.

 

Bottom line... Apple succeeded in the past for charging an 'Apple Tax' for a cooler, better-to-use product.  Now? Apple watch show-offs will look like idiots and be forced to endure the social punishment from the image of using an Apple watch... because nobody is buying the Apple narrative for this product  Apple Watch will fail because it doesn't solve problems. It looks less fashionable.  It isn't cool. The smart investors will realize this sooner than later.

 

Bonus Commentary

The heart rate sensor is good and beyond what an iPhone does by itself, but the market is so limited!  The market is obviously regular athletes.  However, most regular athletes can use their body to tell when it needs to push harder or less hard to achieve a good workout. Those professional athletes that actually understand how heart-rate monitor contributes to health know that heart rate is the only metric to determine health other than user inputs such as height and weight... but so much more is a factor!  Easy example: as you become more dehydrated throughout a workout, your blood has less volume, and thus the whole formula changes.

 

Conclusion: Avoid Apple Watch at all costs. The heart rate sensor is as gimmicky as any other heart rate sensor on a celebrity-endorsed infomercial workout device that makes uninformed stay-at-home housewives foolishly think that they are using science and technology to accurately estimate their workout progress.  Surprise... they're not!! ;)

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