Apple's forecast to sell 71.5M iPhones units in Q4, iPhone 6 sales more than double iPhone 6 Plus

Posted:
in iPhone edited December 2014
On the back of strong seasonal demand, Apple is forecast to ship over 71.5 million iPhones in quarter four, but will see a drop in demand to below 50 million units during the first quarter of 2015, one analyst says.




According to a fresh report from prominent KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo obtained by AppleInsider, quarter-over-quarter Apple iPhone shipments will swell 82 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Leading the charge is iPhone 6, predicted to account for just shy of 60 percent of all sales for the quarter, or 41.65 million units. Coming in a distant second is the iPhone 6 Plus, which has been the more talked about next-generation variation due in large part to its scarcity at retail outlets. Kuo says the 6 Plus supply shortage is not only an indicator of high demand, but also confirmation that suppliers are having production issues. He believes final fourth quarter sales are largely dependent on supply chain success with 6 Plus yields.

Given Apple's current situation, Kuo foresees a major slip in iPhone sales for the first quarter of 2015, mostly due to poor off-season demand. The analyst pegs shipments at a combined 49.4 million units, including 21.6 million iPhone 6 handsets and 10.2 million iPhone 6 Plus versions.

Nearly all iPhone model sales will see quarter-on-quarter contraction save for entry level iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S variants, which are tapped to grow 77.3 percent and 58.2 percent, respectively. Kuo expects promotional pricing will drive iPhone 5C demand, while the three-generation-old iPhone 4S numbers suggest Apple is marketing to emerging markets.

Despite the growth in quarter one 2015, Kuo forecasts Apple to deprecate both iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S models, resulting in a more streamlined product offering. The iPhone lineup has seen a bit of bloat since moving to increasingly larger screen sizes.

Finally, Kuo expects Apple to build on its 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch offerings next year with revised hardware, meaning iPhone 6 models will be pushed down to mid-tier options and the iPhone 5s should go free on contract. Along with iPad updates, the move would complete Apple's transition to an all Touch ID-equipped mobile lineup, advancing the company's Apple Pay initiative.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 93
    Looking forward to a 4" iPhone 6s.
  • Reply 2 of 93
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,982member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    Looking forward to a 4" iPhone 6s.

    Keep looking into the past. 4.7" is the new one hand use. Live with it.

  • Reply 3 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    Looking forward to a 4" iPhone 6s.

    Don't hold your breath.  If you want a 4" iPhone, you'll be buying an iPhone 5S. 

  • Reply 4 of 93
    I do love this 6 Plus but it took forever to get, numbers will improve when supply does.
  • Reply 5 of 93
    thetorrey wrote: »
    Don't hold your breath.  If you want a 4" iPhone, you'll be buying an iPhone 5S. 
    I've been wondering there what will be the 6C(or equivalent model), will it be a 4 inch to maintain that market? Will it be just 4.7 inch, or will it be 5.5 included, surely they won't sell the 6C+ for price of 6S right?

    Can someone please explain why the 4S is supposed to increase if it's off market, sure it's in 3rd world markets, but wouldn't that put it at about no change?
  • Reply 6 of 93
    "On the back of strong seasonal demand, Apple is forecast to ship over 71.5 million iPhones in quarter four, but will see a drop in demand to below 50 million units during the first quarter of 2015."

    Wow, a drop in demand after holiday season. Who would have thunk it?
  • Reply 7 of 93
    As an Apple watcher, all I read was "drop in demand."

    It's over for Apple. Sell the company before the ship sinks.
  • Reply 8 of 93
    I've been wondering there what will be the 6C(or equivalent model), will it be a 4 inch to maintain that market? Will it be just 4.7 inch, or will it be 5.5 included, surely they won't sell the 6C+ for price of 6S right?

    Can someone please explain why the 4S is supposed to increase if it's off market, sure it's in 3rd world markets, but wouldn't that put it at about no change?

    Maybe Apple cut the price further, or there will be heavier discounting. The only thing the 4S has going for it is aesthetics.
  • Reply 9 of 93
    The only thing the 4S has going for it is aesthetics.

    And price. With the cost in some countries between Apple and the local retailer creating excessively high costs these older models with only 8GB of storage are still popular. Personally, I am shocked that people would pay that much on a device that I see as outdated, limited and EOL in terms of SW support, but the results YoY speak for themselves.
  • Reply 10 of 93
    Apple will be very pleased that > 15 million 6 Plus phones sold in 1 quarter, no matter how asininely stated AI continues to infer it's not popular.
  • Reply 11 of 93
    so. much. cash.
  • Reply 12 of 93
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,982member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Curtis Hannah View Post





    I've been wondering there what will be the 6C(or equivalent model), will it be a 4 inch to maintain that market? Will it be just 4.7 inch, or will it be 5.5 included, surely they won't sell the 6C+ for price of 6S right?



    Can someone please explain why the 4S is supposed to increase if it's off market, sure it's in 3rd world markets, but wouldn't that put it at about no change?

    Quit wondering because there's no way Apple will design something new for the mid-tier which has lower margin. Instead, they pass down the last year model. 4" screen is history and won't be here in 2 years. If there's any 6C, it'll be rebadged of 6 or 6+ this year in a polycarbonate body.

  • Reply 13 of 93
    sog35 wrote: »
    Exactly. Those 15 million iPhone 6 Plus sales would have been Samdung sales if Apple did not release the 5.5.

    Next years line up:

    6S Plus $750
    6S $650
    6C $550 (4.7 inch plastic)
    5S $450
    5C $350

    sweet line up.
    We won't be seeing a 6C Plus. Apple will reserve the 5.5 screen for the very top end only.


    Interesting thoughts on 6c positioning. Note Apple uses small letters in iPhone naming
  • Reply 14 of 93
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,982member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post





    Exactly. Those 15 million iPhone 6 Plus sales would have been Samdung sales if Apple did not release the 5.5.



    Next years line up:



    6S Plus $750

    6S $650

    6C $550 (4.7 inch plastic)

    5S $450

    5C $350



    sweet line up.

    We won't be seeing a 6C Plus. Apple will reserve the 5.5 screen for the very top end only.

    Where is 6+? Discontinued? Let's me fix that:

    6S Plus $750

    6S $650

    6C $650 (5.5 inch Polycarbonate, rebadged 6+)

    6 $550

    5S $450

    5C $350

    Remember, Apple won't just discontinue a model like that, but rebadge it. Based on yours, they will kill 6+ entirely...unlikely.

  • Reply 15 of 93
    I call horse manure on another terrible headline from the amateurs at [I]AppleInsider[/I]. [B]"Apple's forecast to sell 71.5M iPhone units in Q4"[/B] is in fact, Ming-chi Kuo's forecast and not [I]Apple's[/I]. If you want to obfuscate the subject in the headline by using passive verbs, at least say "Apple forecasted to sell 71.5M iPhone units in Q4". It's still weak, but less misleading.

    Yes, yes, I know you thought "Apple's forecast" would be a clear contraction of "Apple is forecast." But "Apple's forecast" is also (and commonly understood to be) the possessive form of the noun "Apple." The headline is ambiguous at best, deceptive at worst.
  • Reply 16 of 93
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,193member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    Looking forward to a 4" iPhone 6s.

     

    Not gonna fucking happen, so we can definitely look forward to a never-ending stream of bitching and whining from you when it doesn't. The market for it (ie. those who who not get a 4.7 iPhone because they think is too large) is almost non-existent, and it's not worth the extra engineering, development, sales, and marketing overhead, not to mention added complexity and variables for developers going forward. 

     

    But hey, when has common sense ever had an effect on your thinking. 

  • Reply 17 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stargazerCT View Post



    "On the back of strong seasonal demand, Apple is forecast to ship over 71.5 million iPhones in quarter four, but will see a drop in demand to below 50 million units during the first quarter of 2015."



    Wow, a drop in demand after holiday season. Who would have thunk it?

    Prominent, my butt!  You really need to ignore these idiot analysts.  I'm sure he's totally clueless about how many iPhones are going to be sold in quarter four and what demand is going to be like after that.  Everything will depend on how many iPhones Apple can build within a certain period of time.  This dude is not going around asking everyone if they're going to buy iPhones so he can't possibly know future demand.  If he's going to give numbers, I want some details about how he's arriving at them.  Pulling random numbers out of his buttocks simply isn't good enough.  I think any analyst is getting ahead of themselves calling back to back quarter sales numbers when it comes to Apple.  If Apple Pay becomes a popular standard, there's no telling how high iPhone demand will go.  Last quarter, analysts had no idea how popular the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus would be and that's why they keep upwardly revising iPhone sales numbers as time passes.  Even an iPhone sales number below 50 million is nothing to snort about after the holiday season.  I don't know what other smartphone companies are doing in sales for their flagship models, but Apple is probably leading them by at least a factor of 5.  I'm not sure what investors expect from Apple but their expectations are far too high for Apple and relatively modest for other tech companies.

  • Reply 18 of 93

    If Samsung can manage to keep their metaphorical noses above the water line for another year, then the 4" iPhone will be history, then they can  steal back their market share with innovative new 4" models

  • Reply 19 of 93

    65 million... tops.

  • Reply 20 of 93
    Originally Posted by fallenjt View Post

    Keep looking into the past. 4.7" is the new one hand use. Live with it.



    Talk about psychosis.

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