BMO forecasts 19M Apple Watch sales in 2015, with more than half selling in holiday season

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited March 2015
Momentum for the Apple Watch will likely take a short time to build driven mostly by apps, one analyst believes, with sales quickly escalating to 10 million units in the holiday 2015 shopping season.




Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets believe Apple will sell 19 million Apple Watch units in calendar year 2015, with more than half of those being sold in the December quarter. His prediction was issued in a new note to investors this week, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.

Bachman is bullish on the Apple Watch, but he believes it will take some time for applications to be built that will truly sell the public on the upcoming wrist-worn device.

His estimates suggest there will be an installed base of more than 484 million iPhone users as of December 2015. Sales of 19 million Apple Watch units would equate to 3.9 percent of the total user base.




For fiscal year 2016, Bachman believes Apple will sell 36.5 million of the Apple Watch, growing to 10.9 percent of iPhone users by September of 2016.

Bachman's confidence in the Apple Watch comes despite the fact that there is still much not known about the wearable. In particular, he's especially curious to find out final pricing, application availability, and battery life.

Regarding the high-end price point, BMO's analyst isn't concerned if the 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition sells for more than $10,000. He suspects Apple will sell very few units at that price, as most high-end watch consumers will opt for a brand like Rolex that can stand the test of time.

Bachman also isn't concerned about suspected battery life of around 24 hours. He noted that most consumers have become accustomed to recharging their iPhone at night by their bedside, and he expects Apple Watch users will do the same.

BMO has maintained its price target of $135 for shares of AAPL, along with an "outperform" rating.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    thrangthrang Posts: 776member
    $23M
  • Reply 2 of 20
    mubailimubaili Posts: 399member
    How about settle for 1% of the watch market?
  • Reply 3 of 20
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,373member
    Note to wealthy folks from a share holder ... . Remember to buy one of each model with every strap and store them a way in a bank vault as collectors items. :D
  • Reply 4 of 20
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,373member
    mubaili wrote: »
    How about settle for 1% of the watch market?

    I have to wonder how long it will be before that becomes: 20% Apple (90% of the profit) and 70 % Scamsung (20% of the profit) 10% Microcrap (-10% of the profit) ;)
  • Reply 5 of 20
    darendinodarendino Posts: 126member
    Wish these analyst would piss off
  • Reply 6 of 20
    macapfelmacapfel Posts: 513member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mubaili View Post



    How about settle for 1% of the watch market?



    Yeah, that's good! I agree with this ... and so would someone else.

  • Reply 7 of 20
    The trolls will someday move the goalposts from "No one will buy Apple Watch" to "Apple Watch loses marketshare (troll spelling: "looses")." It's the circle of troll memes.
  • Reply 8 of 20
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    sog35 wrote: »
    LOL.

    Looks like some fools will be banned this year.

    paging Bennie Frosty
    paging Bennie Frosty

    1) It's someone's guess so there is no looks like.

    2) Do you have the post in which he agreed to the bet so others can moderate for the winner?

    3) If you are certain of 19M units then why haven't you taken me up on my bet of $350 to the winner (the starting price of ?Watch)?
  • Reply 9 of 20
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    The trolls will someday move the goalposts from "No one will buy Apple Watch" to "Apple Watch loses marketshare (troll spelling: "looses")." It's the circle of troll memes.

    I think you forgot a couple between those two.

    1. "No one will buy I-Watch [sic]."

    2. "Of course the Apple iSheep will buy it."

    3. "That's because Apple is only good at marketing."

    4. "iWatch [sic] looses [sic] marketshare."
  • Reply 10 of 20
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,526member
    Meanwhile, BTO forecasts that Apple will be takin' care of business.
  • Reply 11 of 20
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,418member
    quinney wrote: »
    Meanwhile, BTO forecasts that Apple will be takin' care of business.

    Do people still remember Bachman Turner Overdrive?
  • Reply 12 of 20
    solipsismy wrote: »
    I think you forgot a couple between those two.

    1. "No one will buy I-Watch [sic]."

    2. "Of course the Apple iSheep will buy it."

    3. "That's because Apple is only good at marketing."

    4. "iWatch [sic] looses [sic] marketshare."

    I stand corrected.
  • Reply 13 of 20
    ingelaingela Posts: 217member
    I used to believe it would be a failure, but now it is looking more appealing to me. I think it will be a modest success that will satiate initial demand, then level off and decline like iPad sales did.
  • Reply 14 of 20
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,980member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I think you forgot a couple between those two.

     

    1. "No one will buy I-Watch [sic]."

       

    2. "Of course the Apple iSheep will buy it."

       

    3. "That's because Apple is only good at marketing."

       

    4. "iWatch [sic] looses [sic] marketshare."


    iSheep = the term fandroids use to describe Apple device owners when idevices beat the shit out of android.

  • Reply 15 of 20
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,985member
    I have to wonder how long it will be before that becomes: 20% Apple (90% of the profit) and 70 % Scamsung (20% of the profit) 10% Microcrap (-10% of the profit) ;)

    So much hatred for MS from you lately.
  • Reply 16 of 20
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,493member

    Sounds reasonably accurate. I'm inclined to be guided by Jony's phrase that Apple Watch is a "compelling beginning."

     

    WatchAware.com has an interesting piece about the sensors on the back not being a heart rate sensor.

  • Reply 17 of 20
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ingela View Post



    I used to believe it would be a failure, but now it is looking more appealing to me. I think it will be a modest success that will satiate initial demand, then level off and decline like iPad sales did.

     

    Ipads still sold 21M last quarter (10B in sales!), 18% under its peek.  Taking in almost 100% of the industry profits.

    If it "fails" in this way 4.5 years from release, they'd have a runaway success.

    They'd take that.

  • Reply 18 of 20
    jameskatt2jameskatt2 Posts: 720member

    If Apple sells 20 million Apple Watches a year, then at an average of $600 a watch, Apple will add $12 BILLION in revenue.

     

    The ENTIRE worldwide watch market is $16 BILLION in revenue.

     

    Apple not only will create and add revenue to the worldwide watch market, it will TAKE A LARGE CHUNK out of the luxury watch market.

     

    Go Apple!

  • Reply 19 of 20
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    jameskatt2 wrote: »
    If Apple sells 20 million Apple Watches a year, then at an average of $600 a watch, Apple will add $12 BILLION in revenue.

    The ENTIRE worldwide watch market is $16 BILLION in revenue.

    Apple not only will create and add revenue to the worldwide watch market, it will TAKE A LARGE CHUNK out of the luxury watch market.

    Go Apple!

    That's a big 'if' on both the number of units and ASP. What basis do you have for those values that are more than 25% higher than the fastest selling CE ever sold, the iPad, being beaten by an iPhone accessory with a higher ASP?
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