Apple on track to sell record 54M iPhones in March quarter, Morgan Stanley says

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited March 2015
The latest data from Morgan Stanley suggests Apple is on target to set a new record and sell at least 54 million iPhones in the current quarter, which concludes later this month.




The investment firm's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker suggests that there is demand for 55 million units in the quarter, though Apple may not be able to build that many. Morgan Stanley's research chain analysis suggests that Apple expects to build just over 52 million iPhones for the three-month period.

But Apple must also fill the channel with about two weeks of inventory to reach the mid-point of its 5-to-7-week target. Analyst Katy Huberty believes Apple will only be able to add less than a week of channel inventory in the quarter, equating to about 2 million units.

As a result, her forecast calls for Apple to ship 54 million total iPhones in the March quarter, which would be a new record for the company. That number is also about what is generally expected on Wall Street.

There are more bullish estimates however, such as UBS, which is projecting sales of 58 million iPhones for the March 2015 quarter. Barclays has an estimate of 54 million units, but has signaled to investors that its projection is "conservative."




In the same quarter a year ago, Apple sold 43.7 million iPhones, so sales of 54 million in the March quarter would represent a 24 percent year over year increase. Apple has topped the 50-million-unit mark only twice in its history, and both of those milestones came during holiday quarters following the launch of new handsets.

Just this week, Apple announced that it has shipped 700 million iPhones to date. As of the end of last quarter, it was at 665 million, which means Apple has shipped at least 35 million, but likely much more as Apple tends to report round numbers to the public outside of earnings.

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey, which compiles sell-through data using Web search analysis, suggests that China and Brazil are seeing the fastest year-over-year growth for iPhone sales. The "clear laggard" for iPhone demand, according to the data, is Japan.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 35
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Still no projected ASP?
  • Reply 2 of 35

    The iPhone is a monster. Even in his wildest dreams I can't imagine Steve ever conceived of selling 50 million in an 'off' quarter, let alone 75 million in a holiday one.

  • Reply 3 of 35
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post



    Still no projected ASP?



    It's been out there IIRC.

  • Reply 4 of 35
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    jfc1138 wrote: »

    It's been out there IIRC.

    I'm projecting an $80 increase, but since I haven't taken into consideration how much older iPhone models sell as a percentage of the total number of units the farther we get from the initial market date of the current flaghsip model.
  • Reply 5 of 35
    So why the f*** is the share price down?
  • Reply 6 of 35
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AAPLfanboy View Post



    So why the f*** is the share price down?



    Today? Likely because some of iCloud's services are suffering an outage.

     

    Or because investors are weenies...

     

    Take your pick.

  • Reply 7 of 35
    gqbgqb Posts: 1,934member

    The entire market is in the tank.

  • Reply 8 of 35
    ...and every one of those sales is a potential Apple Watch customer. If Apple sold a Apple Watch to even 2% of iPhone buyers from the previous and current quarter combined, that would still be more than every other smart watch sold last year and this year. Just saying.
  • Reply 9 of 35
    dugbugdugbug Posts: 283member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

     



    Today? Likely because some of iCloud's services are suffering an outage.

     

    Or because investors are weenies...

     

    Take your pick.


     

     because doomed

  • Reply 10 of 35
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GQB View Post

     

    The entire market is in the tank.




    Not true, at least right now.

     

    S&P 500, 0.00%

    Dow, +0.02%

    Nasdaq, -0.02%

    Russell 2000, +0.64%

     

    Large caps are effectively flat, small caps are actually up.

  • Reply 11 of 35
    Good day to buy AAPL. Since the stock went down after the San Francisco presentation Wall St wrongly is taking that as a negative, as if "nothing they announced moves the needle". But they are wrong. The HBO deal is huge as I predict it is the first of many power grabs by Apple TV until they end up #1 in the world within a year or two. The new Mac looks like a beauty and will sell like hotcakes. The Apple Watch will sell out fast and then sell tons of aps and more and more as time goes by. And the Research and Healthkit news looks amazing. All frosting on the cake, none of this has been priced into the stock.
  • Reply 12 of 35
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 3,954member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

     



    Today? Likely because some of iCloud's services are suffering an outage.

     

    Or because investors are weenies...

     

    Take your pick.


     

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dugbug View Post

     

     

     because doomed




    Isn't it obvious???  Solar flares.

  • Reply 13 of 35

    54 million iPhones might pull Apple's share price out of its current funk.  I was hoping $125 would have been its bottom but the elevator ride continues to even lower floors.  If it goes below $120 I guess I'll buy a few more shares before this quarter's earnings call.  I think it's a good opportunity to buy because I do believe shares will go back to around $130 at some point.  It's amazing how much market cap Apple lost with just a $10 share price drop.

     

    I get a kick out of the analysts always saying how "nothing will move Apple's needle."  It seems that's Wall Street's new Apple anti-rally cry.  How many other stocks do you hear that cry for?  None.  The pessimism is back for Apple.

  • Reply 14 of 35
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,742member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Steffen Jobbs View Post

     

    54 million iPhones might pull Apple's share price out of its current funk.  I was hoping $125 would have been its bottom but the elevator ride continues to even lower floors.  If it goes below $120 I guess I'll buy a few more shares before this quarter's earnings call.  I think it's a good opportunity to buy because I do believe shares will go back to around $130 at some point.  It's amazing how much market cap Apple lost with just a $10 share price drop.

     

    I get a kick out of the analysts always saying how "nothing will move Apple's needle."  It seems that's Wall Street's new Apple anti-rally cry.  How many other stocks do you hear that cry for?  None.  The pessimism is back for Apple.




    Apple's stock cannot seem to sustain a trailing P/E above 17. The whole "law of large numbers" / "regression to the mean" argument is just too deeply entrenched. Apple now exists outside of the range of data that analysts use to predict the future. Their statistical models keep insisting that Apple will regress to the mean. Every time Apple pushes higher, they become more firmly convinced that mean regression is right around the corner. I don't see this cycle ending. 

  • Reply 15 of 35
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,724member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

     

     

     

     

    Large caps are effectively flat, small caps are actually up.


    Large caps, small caps...But what about humongous caps?  Thats what you have to look at to compare with AAPL...

     

    I believe that we are in for a few weeks of seemingly inexplicable stock decline.  

     

    There was just a huge run-up and there is going to be some pull back.  I think the stock will be in a malaise until the quarterly sales are released.  AI fans will say "But of course!  Why the surprise--we knew it was going to be another blow-out quarter!"  But if it was up to us, the stock would never go down!

    Or maybe things will pick up when ?Watch pre-sales start piling up...

  • Reply 16 of 35

    AAPL buying opportunity.  (... for us and for the Apple Buyback Program)

  • Reply 17 of 35
    aaplfanboy wrote: »
    So why the f*** is the share price down?

    It's being depressed by Butt Frost's whinning and complaining on this board... /s
  • Reply 18 of 35

    54 million in a single quarter. And Samsung is expecting to sell 46 million of their S6/S6 Edge this year (over 3 quarters). And that's up from their original estimate of 38 million (that they increased due to better than expected demand from carriers).

  • Reply 19 of 35
    elmoofoelmoofo Posts: 100member

    In three days, you will hear all about how Samsung has announced that they will be on track to sell 54.1m phones in the same quarter due to their superior design and operations excellence.

  • Reply 20 of 35
    aaplfanboy wrote: »
    So why the f*** is the share price down?

    The dollar has recently gotten very strong against the euro--one euro is now worth $1.05, compared to $1.38 a year ago today, but all of their Euro-zone profits are made in euros and then converted to dollars when they report their earnings. In other words, if their profits are up ~30% in the euro zone, they will end up being flat once the numbers are converted to USD to report their earnings, anything less and they will be "down" year-over-year. It also makes pricing tricky--do you raise your prices by ~30%, even though your customers are probably not 30% richer than they were a year ago, do you leave prices where they are, so your products are a lot cheaper in those countries and you make a much smaller profit when the numbers are converted to dollars, or somewhere in between?

    Anyway, I think this could at least partially explain why the stock has been down a tiny bit. It doesn't really have anything to do with the quality of their products or execution, but it could have some impact on the numbers they report next month--especially if the euro continues to fall.
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