Seeing Android switchers fueling iPhone growth, Cowen & Co. raises Apple price target to $135

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited May 2015
After conducting a new survey showing that iPhone growth is being driven by new owners of the platform, investment firm Cowen and Company raised its price target for Apple on Monday to $135.




In a research note issued to investors, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, analyst Timothy Arcuri said his team recently surveyed 3,000 people from around the world about the iPhone, Apple Watch and Apple Pay. To him, the results indicated a number of positives for Apple.

The poll found that about 25 percent of all iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus purchases came from users who are new to the iPhone platform, mostly Android switchers. To him, this means that Samsung's forthcoming Galaxy S6 likely means "do or die" for the South Korean electronics maker.
Cowen and Company's survey found that about 25 percent of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus buyers are new to the iOS platform.
Arcuri's survey also bodes well for Apple Pay, as Cowen and Company found that about 35 percent of all iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus users in the U.S. are using the tap-to-pay service. And among those, nearly two-thirds indicated they use Apple Pay several times per week.

And among those who have yet to buy the latest iPhone models, the inclusion of Apple Pay was rated as an important factor by 65 percent of respondents.

"To us, Apple Pay in the near/medium-term remains primarily a driver of future hardware sales and this survey supports that view," Arcuri wrote.

As for the Apple Watch, Arcuri also came away impressed from the survey, as more than 50 percent of all respondents, regardless of ecosystem or region, indicated they are strongly interested in the device. Perhaps most surprisingly, Android users polled were more interested in the Apple Watch than iOS device users.

With pricing of the Apple Watch, the Cowen survey found that 75 percent of respondents paid less than $500 for their conventional watch. He believes that the $500 price point remains a key threshold for Apple if it wants to make the Watch a success.

Cowen and Company's revised price target was somewhat overdue, as the previous projection had been underwater for weeks, despite an "overweight" rating for AAPL. Its new price target of $135 is up from a previous projection of $115, which was established in January.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 18
    boredumbboredumb Posts: 1,405member

    I wonder what effect, if any, the Galaxy S6 will have on this trend?

    It looks nice in the ads they've started running...kind of reminds me of something...

    Just can't quite remember what, though...

  • Reply 2 of 18
    $135 is my AAPL target, too, for December 31st, 2015.
  • Reply 3 of 18
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    boredumb wrote: »
    I wonder what effect, if any, the Galaxy S6 will have on this trend?
    It looks nice in the ads they've started running...kind of reminds me of something...
    Just can't quite remember what, though...

    I wonder if ?Watch interest will cause non-iPhone users to buy an iPhone 5 or newer.
  • Reply 4 of 18
    hexclockhexclock Posts: 418member
    There seems to be some discrepancies regarding the number of people using Apple Pay. This article claims 35 percent of users actively using it, while the previous AI article on the subject cities a study where only 6 percent have used it.
    http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/15/03/18/study-6-of-iphone-6-owners-have-used-touchless-apple-pay-in-stores-85-have-not
  • Reply 5 of 18
    croprcropr Posts: 841member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I wonder if ?Watch interest will cause non-iPhone users to buy an iPhone 5 or newer.



    I don't, they won't.  If non iPhone users switch to an iPhone it is because of the value of the iPhone 6 (or 6+), not for the Watch, which does not have a decent use case.  Everything one can do with an iPhone + Apple Watch, one can do with just an iPhone.  The Watch slightly increases the convenience but it does not increase the feature set

  • Reply 6 of 18
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hexclock View Post



    There seems to be some discrepancies regarding the number of people using Apple Pay. This article claims 35 percent of users actively using it, while the previous AI article on the subject cities a study where only 6 percent have used it.

    http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/15/03/18/study-6-of-iphone-6-owners-have-used-touchless-apple-pay-in-stores-85-have-not

    That article was referring to terminals that actually are part of Apple's official 'ApplePay' ecosystem -- i.e., terminals with the ApplePay logo.

     

    The use of iPhone 6 with TouchID and credit cards stored in ApplePay via NFC terminals (where you still have to touch 'credit', sign, etc.) is likely much, much higher. For example, in my case, of the five or so places I regularly use my iPhone with TouchID to pay, only one (Walgreens) is Apple's 'ApplePay' partner.

  • Reply 7 of 18
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    cropr wrote: »
    Everything one can do with an iPhone + Apple Watch, one can do with just an iPhone. 

    Bullfuckingshit!
  • Reply 8 of 18
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Its new price target of $135 is up from a previous projection of $115, which was established <a href="http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/01/28/wall-street-shocked-by-apples-staggering-quarter-prompting-analysts-to-raise-estimates">in January</a>.

    So, he predicts Apple will only go up $8 per share in the next 12 months. I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL hit $135 this week. I'm not saying it will and also wouldn't be surprised if it dropped by 6% over the week. Now if we're talking over 30% change in a year then things start to get interesting.
  • Reply 9 of 18
    chasmchasm Posts: 858member
    Hexclock: the discrepancy is easily explained by the self-selecting nature of the people surveyed by Cowen. This was a survey about interest in some of the latest tech out there, so it is naturally going to draw people who are interested/already using it.

    The lower figure is probably more accurate to the full, general population of iPhone owners, the majority of which can't use it even if they want to/are aware of it (Apple Pay not being really available outside the US).
  • Reply 10 of 18
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 2,594moderator
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cropr View Post

     



    I don't, they won't.  If non iPhone users switch to an iPhone it is because of the value of the iPhone 6 (or 6+), not for the Watch, which does not have a decent use case.  Everything one can do with an iPhone + Apple Watch, one can do with just an iPhone.  The Watch slightly increases the convenience but it does not increase the feature set


     

     


    The Watch will deliver four key use cases well suited to a wearable device:



    1. Notification and dispatch. This is what everyone has been talking about so I won't detail this use case.

     


    2. Simple [lightweight] communications. For many, the concept of a smartphone as a phone (a real-time voice communicator) is becoming an anachronism. Many people use real-time voice communications only for short exchanges, to arrange a meetup or a quick check-in. These types of communications can easily be handled by the Watch, with longer conversations left to the smartphone. Apple's clever taptic communications (reach out and touch someone or send your heartbeat), the quick drawing app, and voice texts, all are lightweight forms of communication best suited for a wearable.



    3. Simple actions. With the introduction of HomeKit, and with ApplePay and integration with the Internet of Things, watches will soon be expected to perform the functions of house keys, car keys, workplace access Fobs and swipe cards, credit cards, light switches, television and stereo remotes, heat and air conditioning controllers, security system controllers, garage door openers, printed airline tickets and other passes. Just as the smartphone replaced many stand-alone products, so too will the smart watch.



    4. Tracking. Not just fitness and health tracking, soon watches will be expected to be able to input simple data into applications. From SalesForce to Facebook to employee rating to project tracking, status updates that are easily input will become a fourth, stealth use case.

     

  • Reply 11 of 18
    croprcropr Posts: 841member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post

     

     

     


    The Watch will deliver four key use cases well suited to a wearable device:



    1. Notification and dispatch. This is what everyone has been talking about so I won't detail this use case.

     


    2. Simple [lightweight] communications. For many, the concept of a smartphone as a phone (a real-time voice communicator) is becoming an anachronism. Many people use real-time voice communications only for short exchanges, to arrange a meetup or a quick check-in. These types of communications can easily be handled by the Watch, with longer conversations left to the smartphone. Apple's clever taptic communications (reach out and touch someone or send your heartbeat), the quick drawing app, and voice texts, all are lightweight forms of communication best suited for a wearable.



    3. Simple actions. With the introduction of HomeKit, and with ApplePay and integration with the Internet of Things, watches will soon be expected to perform the functions of house keys, car keys, workplace access Fobs and swipe cards, credit cards, light switches, television and stereo remotes, heat and air conditioning controllers, security system controllers, garage door openers, printed airline tickets and other passes. Just as the smartphone replaced many stand-alone products, so too will the smart watch.



    4. Tracking. Not just fitness and health tracking, soon watches will be expected to be able to input simple data into applications. From SalesForce to Facebook to employee rating to project tracking, status updates that are easily input will become a fourth, stealth use case.

     


     

    1. Is available on the iPhone.  No added value for the Watch. Maybe a slight increase of convenience, if the battery would last at least a week

    2. is available on the iPhone. No added value for the Watch. Maybe a slight increase of convenience, if the battery would last at least a week

    3. Apple Pay is available on the iPhone.  Putting car and/or home keys on a Watch might seem convenient but increases exponentially the security risk.  If the Watch is lost or stolen, you can start scratching your head.  If you are locked out and the battery is flat, you can start scratching again.

    4.  Tracking might be interesting if the good apps are developed. 

     

    My conclusion remains solid as a rcok. Non iPhone user would definitely not swap to iPhone because of the Watch, but because of the value of the iPhone.

  • Reply 12 of 18
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,903member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by boredumb View Post

     

    I wonder what effect, if any, the Galaxy S6 will have on this trend?

    It looks nice in the ads they've started running...kind of reminds me of something...

    Just can't quite remember what, though...


    GS 6 is nice but won't be much impact since fandroids are upset at Samsung for killings of waterproof, removable battery and mSD slot. On top of that, GS6 Edge is overpriced for a pure gimmicky device.

  • Reply 13 of 18
    chiachia Posts: 682member
    cropr wrote: »

    the Watch, which does not have a decent use case.  Everything one can do with an iPhone + Apple Watch, one can do with just an iPhone.  The Watch slightly increases the convenience but it does not increase the feature set.

    The same argument can be made about an iPhone versus a Macbook with cellular modem.

    There are times and moments when it's more convenient to look at a device on the wrist than fumble with getting something out of the pocket.

    Skiing, cycling, jogging, carrying something with both hands, some examples where looking at the watch is more convenient than fumbling in the pocket for a phone.
  • Reply 14 of 18
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,758member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post

     

     

     


    The Watch will deliver four key use cases well suited to a wearable device:



    1. Notification and dispatch. This is what everyone has been talking about so I won't detail this use case.

     


    2. Simple [lightweight] communications. For many, the concept of a smartphone as a phone (a real-time voice communicator) is becoming an anachronism. Many people use real-time voice communications only for short exchanges, to arrange a meetup or a quick check-in. These types of communications can easily be handled by the Watch, with longer conversations left to the smartphone. Apple's clever taptic communications (reach out and touch someone or send your heartbeat), the quick drawing app, and voice texts, all are lightweight forms of communication best suited for a wearable.



    3. Simple actions. With the introduction of HomeKit, and with ApplePay and integration with the Internet of Things, watches will soon be expected to perform the functions of house keys, car keys, workplace access Fobs and swipe cards, credit cards, light switches, television and stereo remotes, heat and air conditioning controllers, security system controllers, garage door openers, printed airline tickets and other passes. Just as the smartphone replaced many stand-alone products, so too will the smart watch.



    4. Tracking. Not just fitness and health tracking, soon watches will be expected to be able to input simple data into applications. From SalesForce to Facebook to employee rating to project tracking, status updates that are easily input will become a fourth, stealth use case.

     


     

    One thing people have forgotten is that the watch connects with the phone on the same WIFI network (and I expect that eventually it will even connect with a phone that's not on the same network (with discoverability handled by the Apple cloud). That means that you could have your phone anywhere in your house and answer it.  Currently, android wear doesn't do this.

  • Reply 15 of 18
    red oakred oak Posts: 614member

    It is crazy with these data points and insights that he only gets to $135 price target.  Ludicrous 

  • Reply 16 of 18
    boredumbboredumb Posts: 1,405member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by boredumb View Post

    I wonder what effect, if any, the Galaxy S6 will have on this trend?

    It looks nice in the ads they've started running...kind of reminds me of something...

    Just can't quite remember what, though...


    I wonder if ?Watch interest will cause non-iPhone users to buy an iPhone 5 or newer.

    We can only hope - not that the iPhone is having any problems, but it would be a nice momentum

    boost to ?Pay if that pairing produced a sales bump...

     

    I still can't convince myself the ?Watch will have those legs - 

    I know (almost) everyone here is very positive, but we're hardly a representative sample.  

     

    Still, you have to love the realization of Jobs' vision of these devices enabling one another,

    and growing the lifestyle of the future...if we can't have "flying cars", at least we have Apple.

  • Reply 17 of 18
    jdamlanjdamlan Posts: 3member

    Apple just got another buy rating from Cowen & Co (not surprising) but the analyst has a 100% success rate on the stock: https://www.tipranks.com/experts/timothy-arcuri I wonder what analysts will say once the iPhone 6 wave winds down

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