Nearly all Apple Watch retail try-ons are resulting in preorders, Cowen says

Posted:
in Apple Watch edited April 2015
Customers who schedule an appointment to try on the Apple Watch are extremely likely to walk away with a preorder for the device, according to a new informal poll of retail employees conducted by an analyst.




Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company visited Apple retail stores in the San Francisco Bay Area over the weekend, and spoke with employees about the try-on appointments that began last Friday.

Apple employees indicated to Arcuri that nearly all customers who came in to try on the Apple Watch preordered the device. The analyst said his team spoke to several dozen salespeople at each retail store, and they said between 85 and 90 percent of those who had an appointment to try on the Apple Watch bought in to the device.

The informal poll has led Arcuri to estimate that opening weekend preorders for the Apple Watch could easily be in the 1-million-unit range. To him, this number is "respectable," and even a little better than he had anticipated.

Separately, research from Slice Intelligence suggested that Apple Watch preorders may have reached 1 million in the first 24 hours of availability. Their data was based on a poll of 9,090 online shoppers.

Arcuri continues to estimate that Apple will sell about 3 million Apple Watch units in the June quarter, and the number will increase to 7 million units in the September quarter. He sees the average selling price at launch being at $449, and dropping to $422 in the subsequent quarter.

Looking longer term, Arcuri believes Apple will sell 31 million units in the first 12 months of the Apple Watch. If that prediction comes true, he noted it would be the company's largest initial year of sales for any new product category in its history.

Cowen and Company has maintained its price target of $135, with an "outperform" rating for shares of AAPL.
«13456

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 112
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    31 million is an insane prediction. If Apple sells more than 5 million, the Apple Watch should be considered a massive success.
  • Reply 2 of 112
    taddtadd Posts: 121member

    I might have pre-ordered a watch after the scheduled try-on but they would only allow pre-orders on-line so at the end of the demo my wife and I went home.  At the try-on, they did not know the complete set of prices.  They had to go into the menus on an iphone-like-device to find out.  That was pretty tedious.  

     

    I had some questions that the Apple sales people couldn't answer:

    1. will there be aftermarket bands for the watch?  Is that something Apple is prohibiting somehow?

    2. What does the watch do or say when it goes out-of-range of the cellphone or if the cellphone is powered off?

    3. Can you get the phone's battery level to show on the clock-face along with the time?

    4. Is the magnet on the Milanese Loop band a danger to credit card magnetic strips in my wallet? 

    5. what software support is there for wearing the watch on the other arm?  Does it move the crown-knob to the other side?  

  • Reply 3 of 112
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,452member
    Not surprising. But how do we know? Are Apple employees guiding customers to a computer in store, or assisting them with doing it on their iPhones? Or are they just saying they are going to pre-order?

    BTW, I don't think the picture with the Rolex side by side with the watch do it any favors.
  • Reply 4 of 112
    shenshen Posts: 434member
    Interesting, even if the estimates are high. I imagine this is largely due to the inability to wait in the traditional line to buy one.

    My try on didn't result in an order, as I am waiting to get some real world reports about the glass vs sapphire screens to decide which I want. But I listened to three other try on appointments while is was there, and all three resulted in a purchase. One of them resulted in two sales. I assumed that was just pure luck, but maybe not.....
  • Reply 5 of 112
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post





    BTW, I don't think the picture with the Rolex side by side with the watch do it any favors.

     Is "it" the Rolex or the Apple Watch in your statement?  Looking at the two on his wrist I'm definitely more drawn to the Apple Watch.

  • Reply 6 of 112
    http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/04/12/an-apple-watch-meta-review-reimagined/

    Jean-Louis has a good breakdown of the clickbait reviews (as well as a much appreciated slam of Patel) and what they really say. This is going to be a gamechanging device.
  • Reply 7 of 112

    Arcuri's average selling price is nonsensically low.  As others have said in other threads with a 60% Sport/36% Watch/4% Edition mix the average selling price has to be well north of $700, probably more in the neighborhood of $850 (though I'm guessing even higher).  That's pretty much double what this analyst is predicting.

  • Reply 8 of 112
    nobodyynobodyy Posts: 377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tadd View Post

     

    I might have pre-ordered a watch after the scheduled try-on but they would only allow pre-orders on-line so at the end of the demo my wife and I went home.  At the try-on, they did not know the complete set of prices.  They had to go into the menus on an iphone-like-device to find out.  That was pretty tedious.  

     

    I had some questions that the Apple sales people couldn't answer:

    1. will there be aftermarket bands for the watch?  Is that something Apple is prohibiting somehow?

    2. What does the watch do or say when it goes out-of-range of the cellphone or if the cellphone is powered off?

    3. Can you get the phone's battery level to show on the clock-face along with the time?

    4. Is the magnet on the Milanese Loop band a danger to credit card magnetic strips in my wallet? 

    5. what software support is there for wearing the watch on the other arm?  Does it move the crown-knob to the other side?  




    I can answer some of these for you. 

     

    1. Yes, Apple sells a few and there are many 3rd party manufacturers heating up this market

    2. It will say nothing (but may present you with a notification) and work as independently as possible if connected to a Wifi network, which means Messages, Siri, and other Internet enabled things will work, however, functions that tether to the phone will not work, such as 3rd party apps. If no network, you'll be able to use it as a standalone device, though limited. Things like the Watch App will still function fine.

    3. No, you can only access battery life in Glances and when charging

    4. Probably. Most magnets can desensitize a CC strip after extended exposure, but not if you're reaching and happen to brush against it.

    5. It has a full range of options to both switch arms and the orientation. 

  • Reply 9 of 112
    shenshen Posts: 434member
    mac_128 wrote: »
    Not surprising. But how do we know? Are Apple employees guiding customers to a computer in store, or assisting them with doing it on their iPhones? Or are they just saying they are going to pre-order?

    BTW, I don't think the picture with the Rolex side by side with the watch do it any favors.

    The order I watched while waiting to try on, the Apple employee walked them through the order. They asked how they could order two watches, and he walked them through the purchase from the App Store app on their own iPhones. I have no idea what the guy in the article is counting, and it could be the % is so high because he accepts the Apple employees impression they will buy or something like that.

    I agree with you about the watch photo. The POS next to the apple watch looks terrible by comparison. But I think they are just making a statement about the size. ;)

    BTW, I was impressed with the size when I tried it on. The apple watch is about the size as, weighs much less than, is slightly thinner than my citizen Eco Skyhawk. I will certainly be buying one once I have some info about the glass vs sapphire.
  • Reply 10 of 112
    mike1mike1 Posts: 1,941member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tadd View Post

     

    I might have pre-ordered a watch after the scheduled try-on but they would only allow pre-orders on-line so at the end of the demo my wife and I went home.  At the try-on, they did not know the complete set of prices.  They had to go into the menus on an iphone-like-device to find out.  That was pretty tedious.  

     

    I had some questions that the Apple sales people couldn't answer:

    1. will there be aftermarket bands for the watch?  Is that something Apple is prohibiting somehow?

    2. What does the watch do or say when it goes out-of-range of the cellphone or if the cellphone is powered off?

    3. Can you get the phone's battery level to show on the clock-face along with the time?

    4. Is the magnet on the Milanese Loop band a danger to credit card magnetic strips in my wallet? 

    5. what software support is there for wearing the watch on the other arm?  Does it move the crown-knob to the other side?  


     

     

    1. Probably, like with other items that require the specific measurements, other accessory makers will need real watches to make this happen unless Apple releases the drawings sooner.

    4. It would have to be a real strong magnet to have an impact and unless you keep the phone in your wallet, it will likely not present a problem.

    5. Already explained at launch that the watch screen will invert. There is no physical hardware difference. If worn on the right wrist, the crown faces the arm, not the hand.

  • Reply 11 of 112
    aduzikaduzik Posts: 94member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post



    Not surprising. But how do we know? Are Apple employees guiding customers to a computer in store, or assisting them with doing it on their iPhones? Or are they just saying they are going to pre-order?

    The stores are encouraging people to pre-order using the in-store computers because the store gets credit for the sale that way. Employees may not be on commission, but their bonuses depend on meeting sales targets.

  • Reply 12 of 112
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    I have no time for anecdotal data that gets extrapolated out to mean something. The only date of that matters will come from Apple should they choose to provide it to us.
  • Reply 13 of 112
    idreyidrey Posts: 643member
    sog35 wrote: »
    They will sell 5 million by Summer

    I'll go with 5mills the first week
  • Reply 14 of 112
    2old4fun2old4fun Posts: 226member



    Pre-orders are always online.  But the sales person would have done it all for you.  My wife ordered hers online on her iPhone with the help of the Apple person.  She went through two try-on sessions to make sure of what she wanted.  After the first try-on and then looking at the display for sometime, another sales person scheduled another try-on session for her.  She got the same person that helped her with the first session, who helped with the ordering process.  It took time but when spending that much money it is better to be sure.

     

    Sales training 101, never quote prices from memory.

     

    Items 2 and 3, are those buying decisions?  If so, I suspect you are sold on the watch.

  • Reply 15 of 112
    mrboba1mrboba1 Posts: 275member

    They were 2 for 2 with my family.

     

    And I wasn't going to do it now, either. My guy was *extremely* knowledgeable about all my questions, and would have known every answer to Tadd's questions (I had some of the same ones)

     

    I went with the Aluminum Sport for now, and will get other bands this summer.  I thought it looked better on me than the SS.

  • Reply 16 of 112
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,452member
     Is "it" the Rolex or the Apple Watch in your statement?  Looking at the two on his wrist I'm definitely more drawn to the Apple Watch.
    This isn't a popular opinion around here, but to me the ?Watch seems particularly hard to photograph well. Sometimes it seems like the most beautiful design ever, and others it looks like a cheap Casio. Seeing them in person is definitely a game changer, where the fit and finish can be appreciated, and even then watches like the space gray Sport looks cheaper than it does in most pictures.

    With reference to the photo AI uses, yes the Rolex looks old and dated, but it also is more contoured and stylish than the ?Watch, so even though they are about the same size, the ?Watch to my eye looks larger and blocky. It also looks kind of like plastic the way the light reflects off of it compared to the Rolex -- nothing like it looks in person, especially that Milanese band which is gorgeous. I also think the placement on the wrist is wrong, the ?Watch should have been above the Rolex so that it fit on the arm better. And it was on a demo loop, so capturing a watch face wasn't easy to do -- so the net effect for me is that in that particular photo, the ?Watch looks like a smart watch for nerdy/techie types, rather than a suitable replacement for a wristwatch. And someone who's interested in the ?Watch who has a more fashion conscious eye, might see that particular photo as less fashionable compared to traditional wrist wear.

    Since I know it doesn't look like that in person, I'm just saying that especially for articles that extol the positives about the watch, extra care should be given to "candid" photos that might not show the watch in the best light.

    Then again with these sales forecasts, perhaps it doesn't really matter. ;-)
  • Reply 17 of 112
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,452member
    aduzik wrote: »
    The stores are encouraging people to pre-order using the in-store computers because the store gets credit for the sale that way. Employees may not be on commission, but their bonuses depend on meeting sales targets.
    Thanks. There was conflicting info, and fits with the leaked memo about assisting walk-ins with demo/fittings, but encouraging them to pre-order afterwards.
  • Reply 18 of 112
    jkichlinejkichline Posts: 1,336member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tadd View Post

     

    I might have pre-ordered a watch after the scheduled try-on but they would only allow pre-orders on-line so at the end of the demo my wife and I went home.  At the try-on, they did not know the complete set of prices.  They had to go into the menus on an iphone-like-device to find out.  That was pretty tedious.  

     

    I had some questions that the Apple sales people couldn't answer:

    1. will there be aftermarket bands for the watch?  Is that something Apple is prohibiting somehow?

    2. What does the watch do or say when it goes out-of-range of the cellphone or if the cellphone is powered off?

    3. Can you get the phone's battery level to show on the clock-face along with the time?

    4. Is the magnet on the Milanese Loop band a danger to credit card magnetic strips in my wallet? 

    5. what software support is there for wearing the watch on the other arm?  Does it move the crown-knob to the other side?  


     

    0. If you have to nitpick over the price of individual details, you're not the target market.

    1. Most likely, but since it just came out it may be some time before they are available. I believe Apple has made the hardware specs known.

    2. Many reviewers have stated that the watch continues to operate generally normally when out of range or disconnected from the iPhone.

    3. I'm sure they thought of this and many of the watches faces include "complications" that can be configured.

    4. Are you keeping your watch in your wallet? Attaching your wallet to your arm? You probably won't need to worry.

    5. This was demoed in September. You simply flip the watch around and the crown is on the other side for lefties.

  • Reply 19 of 112
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tadd View Post

     

    3. Can you get the phone's battery level to show on the clock-face along with the time?


     

    Quote:

    The main face is the watch face. There are currently ten faces you can choose from, and you can customize each one to show things like date, weather, activity levels and battery life. Apple is calling these tiny info displays “complications,” a nod to mechanical watches.


    per http://recode.net/2015/04/08/a-week-on-the-wrist-the-apple-watch-review/

     

    Quote:

     Along with the basic colour face option, I added battery life on the upper right corner


    per http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/technology/social-gadgets/article/1760846/apple-watch-review-potentially-revolutionary

     

    where you'll also see an image of the watch with the battery life complication.

  • Reply 20 of 112
    phone-ui-guyphone-ui-guy Posts: 1,018member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post



    Not surprising. But how do we know? Are Apple employees guiding customers to a computer in store, or assisting them with doing it on their iPhones? Or are they just saying they are going to pre-order?



    BTW, I don't think the picture with the Rolex side by side with the watch do it any favors.

     

    The title is misleading. If you read the article, they are saying that people doing the try-ons had already pre-ordered before their appointment. I pre-ordered what I thought I wanted and then went to the store to see it in person. I didn't do the try on, but wanted more than seeing the image on a web page. If people change their minds at the try on, they can then just cancel the pre-order and wait in the virtual line for the what they think is the correct device for them.

Sign In or Register to comment.