Apple's 'fundamentally different' iPhone 6 expected to buck seasonal sales trends

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited April 2015
Apple's iPhone 6 and larger iPhone 6 Plus will likely perform better in the June and September quarters than previous iPhone models, analyst Gene Munster believes, which will help to propel shares of the company's stock to new highs.




In a note to investors on Friday, the Piper Jaffray analyst called Apple's iPhone 6 product cycle a "fundamentally different" story than previous models. The note, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider explains that in previous years, Apple's overall smartphone market share was 4 percentage points lower in the June and September quarters than in March.

But he expects that to change this year, and Munster has predicted that sales of the iPhone 6 series will not fall as much in the next two quarters as they have dropped in years past.

Specifically, Munster believes investors on Wall Street are expecting Apple to sell 42.7 million iPhones in the June quarter, and 45.1 million in the September quarter. Based on his estimates of the global smartphone market, he sees those numbers earning Apple 12 percent, and then 11 percent, in the two quarters.

As for the holiday 2015 quarter, expectations are relatively low on Wall Street. According to Munster, consensus calls for the company's December quarter to see sales of 73.4 million iPhone units, which would actually be a decrease from the 74.5 million units Apple sold in the holiday 2014 quarter.

Given those expectations, Munster sees upside potential for investors looking to buy into Apple stock headed into the second half of the year. Piper Jaffray has accordingly maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL with a $160 price target.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 22
    inklinginkling Posts: 731member
    Hopefully, with these larger screen iPhones Apple is learning to offer the market more variety. Limiting models made sense when the company was small and struggling in the late 1990s. It makes no sense today.

    The iPhone, for instance, needs a sports model like the Apple Watch, and a thicker model with an far longer battery life for on the go people. It'd also be great to have a display-free desktop model in the huge gap between the Mac mini and the Mac Pro.
  • Reply 2 of 22
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 5,806member

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/stupid/smartphone-debate-ends-with-stabbings-908541

     

    Nothing to do with this article but I just had post it somewhere. It doesn’t say who was the fAndroid and who was the Fanboy. Any guesses?

  • Reply 3 of 22
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,013member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

     

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/stupid/smartphone-debate-ends-with-stabbings-908541

     

    Nothing to do with this article but I just had post it somewhere. It doesn’t say who was the fAndroid and who was the Fanboy. Any guesses?


     

    I think the guy that struck the other on the back of the head with a beer bottle was the android.  He's drinking beer, and hit hit from behind.  A cowardly cheap-shot.  Typical Fandroid behavior. 



    The Apple Fan would have used a vodka bottle, and at least had the dignity of hitting him from the front. :)

  • Reply 4 of 22
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,013member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    Hopefully, with these larger screen iPhones Apple is learning to offer the market more variety. Limiting models made sense when the company was small and struggling in the late 1990s. It makes no sense today.



    The iPhone, for instance, needs a sports model like the Apple Watch, and a thicker model with an far longer battery life for on the go people. It'd also be great to have a display-free desktop model in the huge gap between the Mac mini and the Mac Pro.



    Last thing Apple needs to do is explode their product-line as you suggest.  Too much choice is bad as well... just look at the mess Android phones are in.  That alone should tell you that Apple's smaller product-line is better to manage and handle.

  • Reply 5 of 22
    staticx57staticx57 Posts: 393member

    This ANALysts do not know what they are talking about. The iPhone will not buck seasonal trends and will sell like crap.

     

     

    Oh wait, we only hate them when they say things we don't like.

  • Reply 6 of 22
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,447member
    inkling wrote: »
    Hopefully, with these larger screen iPhones Apple is learning to offer the market more variety. Limiting models made sense when the company was small and struggling in the late 1990s. It makes no sense today.

    The iPhone, for instance, needs a sports model like the Apple Watch, and a thicker model with an far longer battery life for on the go people. It'd also be great to have a display-free desktop model in the huge gap between the Mac mini and the Mac Pro.

    Except the larger-screened phones had to wait for the production capacity of Apple's suppliers of LTPS displays to expand to the level of 25 million per month.

    I'm getting tired of reminding people that these things don't grow on trees. It's got nothing to do with Apple learning snything.
  • Reply 7 of 22

    So if wall street expects sales in the 42-45 million range then why is this idiot saying anything under 60m will be a disappointment?

     

    http://247wallst.com/consumer-electronics/2015/04/17/did-apple-sell-60-million-iphones/

     

    "analysts".... There's a reason the first 4 letters of analyst are what they are...

  • Reply 8 of 22
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,508member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Serendip View Post

     

    So if wall street expects sales in the 42-45 million range then why is this idiot saying anything under 60m will be a disappointment?

     

    http://247wallst.com/consumer-electronics/2015/04/17/did-apple-sell-60-million-iphones/

     

    "analysts".... There's a reason the first 4 letters of analyst are what they are...


    Ummm, because the link you provided are the expectations of what Apple did in the March quarter, and the 45 and 42 M numbers were for June and September quarters.  Different quarters, different expectations.

     

    However, I will be very very surprised, when the June and September quarterly results are announced, if the street hasn't increased its expectations significantly from those levels.  Whenever those expectations rise (and I think it will probably be immediately after this next announcement, which should blow doors off of expectations and prove Munster's premise) you can expect the stock to get some juice too.

  • Reply 9 of 22
    Everyone knows about pent-up demand from Asia spiking the 6& for the 2nd quarter.

    I definitely would not expect sales to be as high as 42-45-73 for current-fall-holiday quarters. I think you could count on 35-35-60, tho. It depends on how wonderful is the iPhone 7 family.
  • Reply 10 of 22
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,508member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DogCowabunga View Post



    Everyone knows about pent-up demand from Asia spiking the 6& for the 2nd quarter.



    I definitely would not expect sales to be as high as 42-45-73 for current-fall-holiday quarters. I think you could count on 35-35-60, tho. It depends on how wonderful is the iPhone 7 family.

    There's no way iPhone sales will drop to 35-35-60 in the June/Sep/Dec quarters.  If that happens you will definitely see a huge selloff in AAPL.  

     

    So I disagree with you.  I would bet that 45-42-73 would be much closer to reality, and probably a bit low on the front end.

  • Reply 11 of 22
    sleakajsleakaj Posts: 32member

    Since when in recent memory has Munster been right about anything?

  • Reply 12 of 22
    cash907cash907 Posts: 893member
    Stopped reading at "Munster." And that's not trying to be cute, just recognizing that this guy has a horrible track record, and should be taken seriously either way. I could throw a dart at a wall full of numbers and come up with something more reliable than this guy.
  • Reply 13 of 22
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,799member

    But but Samsung GS6 and 6Edge come out and claim the best phones on the market....

  • Reply 14 of 22
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 4,950member
    serendip wrote: »
    So if wall street expects sales in the 42-45 million range then why is this idiot saying anything under 60m will be a disappointment?

    http://247wallst.com/consumer-electronics/2015/04/17/did-apple-sell-60-million-iphones/

    "analysts".... There's a reason the first 4 letters of analyst are what they are...

    That's just a click bait blog. Badly written, no research, ridiculous conclusions.

    He's not an analyst though.
  • Reply 15 of 22
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 4,950member
    Everyone knows about pent-up demand from Asia spiking the 6& for the 2nd quarter.

    I definitely would not expect sales to be as high as 42-45-73 for current-fall-holiday quarters. I think you could count on 35-35-60, tho. It depends on how wonderful is the iPhone 7 family.

    You are expecting a fairly spectacular y-o-y drop in the holiday quarter. I'd be surprised. They are probably hoping 80m-100m units. I think there will be a reintroduced 4" for poorer markets.
  • Reply 16 of 22
    Wish
    sleakaj wrote: »
    Since when in recent memory has Munster been right about anything?
    I wish I could be wrong so often and earn millions!
  • Reply 17 of 22
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    Hopefully, with these larger screen iPhones Apple is learning...

     

    You've spammed this same diatribe eighteen times already.  And you almost never engage in followup discussion, you just fart something negative out and leave. 

     

    What you've suggested (eighteen times!) makes as much sense as a five-star restaurant converting to a cafeteria-style buffet.  No way is this grounded in Apple's best interests.

  • Reply 18 of 22
    pistispistis Posts: 247member
    Where are all the people on here who predicted over $200 by year end, cmon we know who you are. Oh that's right they got pulled along by all the usual hype and hysteria when the iph6 came out and stock jumped to 135. And now has fallen away... No doubt they will be back as the stock tests those highs again.
  • Reply 19 of 22

    You do know that Apple didn't make phones in the 90's lol  and the struggles of the 90's were specifically due to unqualified upper management, restricted product licensing and limited applications. 



     

     

  • Reply 20 of 22

    You crack me up. "Everyone knows about pent-up demand from Asia spiking the 6& for the 2nd quarter."    

    ?Sorry but your credibility slipped with the "6&"  (eyes rolling)   Apple doesn't make a 6and they do make a 6+.....

     

    "35-35-60"   get ready for a shocker.

     

    The 6 and 6+  have done much better than the numbers the  Wall ST stock manipulators have published.

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