my thoughts
ok let's even pretend slice is accurate. at 10-20k a day for one year is 3.6m-7.3m, add in the 1.3m preordered sold, and you are looking at 4.9m - 8.6m just for the US market alone in the first calendar year of sales.
the US is only 37.7% of apple's sales. so we extrapolate out the sales according to that for international sales and you are at 9.5m-19.4m.
Also factor in that these sales are for one of the weaker quarters for all of retail due to xmas in the western culture and chines new year (jan/feb) being in january for china. So you can probably add another 15-20% for holiday sales which takes you to around 12m - 24m for a full year.
Lastly factor in that WatchOS2.0 is much more powerful and allows 3rd party native apps which hopefully will finally unleash the power of the apple watch. And also the 3rd party watch band program kicking in by xmas , and not to mention owners buying multiple bands, maybe getting a new band every few months just for fun/fashion sakes.
12-30m apple watches in the first calendar year? it's looking possible! Even with going by this slice data being accurate!
These numbers hardly give a sky is falling scenario for apple watch. In fact it looks like they are off to a anywhere from a very solid start to an outstanding start!
Personally I've visited the apple stores in hong kong every day of the last week to see how demand is going and I tell you apple watch is selling VERY well now that's it's available in store in asia. I saw the same thing happening in shanghai apple stores. It was actually really surprising to me because I thought demand and interest was low. you basically see a few customers in the process of buying their apple watches constantly throughout the day. I even saw one guy buying a two bags of about 20 apple watches!!! The customers that are buying them are very varied too, form parents buying for their teens, to office ladies, to young men, to grandparents. I'm convinced that year 2 of apple watch will be amazing as it starts to reach critical mass and the apps can take advantage of that user base.
Personally i preordered mine and received it on Day 1 and I'm still wearing it. I dare say i actually like it better than my iPhone due to it's more luxury feeling. I already upgraded to the link bracelet as it looks better for meetings and social occasions and LOVE IT. it's actually more comfortable than the sport bands! My main use for the apple watch is as a fitness band. My nike fuel band which i used for the year before hasn't been charged again since the day i got apple watch. I find that as soon as i stop wearing my apple watch i become more sedementary and sit at my computer working for 4 hours without moving. The apple watch has done an outstanding job helping me track my progress on my fitness goals and helping me up my calorie burn targets as well.
Anyways, that's my thoughts on this apple watch doom and gloom article. thanks for reading. sorry for the length and wordiness 