KGI: Force Touch won't be enough to drive 'iPhone 6s' upgrades, could mean negative iPhone growth
Apple may not be able to convince many users to upgrade to its next-generation iPhone if Force Touch is the only major addition, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes, which could lead to the first ever year-over-year contraction in iPhone sales.
The analyst believes that the so-called "iPhone 6s" lacks a killer app to drive current users to upgrade, as Apple has failed to convince the public that Force Touch is a useful feature with the Apple Watch and recent MacBooks. In comparison, the iPhone 4s added Siri and the iPhone 5s introduced Touch ID --?two features which became industry benchmarks.
As a result, KGI forecasts Apple's holiday iPhone sales to fall between 65 million and 75 million. Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones in the same period last year, its best tally in history.
Kuo made his prediction in a note to investors which was first covered by Taiwanese newspaper Apple Daily.
The latest prediction is a major change of course for Kuo, who said back in April that he believed Force Touch would be the most significant change to date to Apple's iOS user interface. At the time, he suggested that the upgrade would be so large that Apple might consider calling the handset the "iPhone 7," completely bypassing the company's typical "s" cycle.
AppleInsider's own sources indicated back in February that Force Touch would be a key feature of this year's iPhone models.
Aside from Force Touch, the iPhone 6s will likely bring a new "A9" processor alongside a stiffened chassis --?though the overall design should be nearly identical. Other improvements on tap are rumored to include 2 gigabytes of RAM as standard and a faster, more accurate Touch ID sensor.
Apple is expected to announce its new iPhone alongside an updated Apple TV at a special media event on Sept. 9.
The analyst believes that the so-called "iPhone 6s" lacks a killer app to drive current users to upgrade, as Apple has failed to convince the public that Force Touch is a useful feature with the Apple Watch and recent MacBooks. In comparison, the iPhone 4s added Siri and the iPhone 5s introduced Touch ID --?two features which became industry benchmarks.
As a result, KGI forecasts Apple's holiday iPhone sales to fall between 65 million and 75 million. Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones in the same period last year, its best tally in history.
Kuo made his prediction in a note to investors which was first covered by Taiwanese newspaper Apple Daily.
The latest prediction is a major change of course for Kuo, who said back in April that he believed Force Touch would be the most significant change to date to Apple's iOS user interface. At the time, he suggested that the upgrade would be so large that Apple might consider calling the handset the "iPhone 7," completely bypassing the company's typical "s" cycle.
AppleInsider's own sources indicated back in February that Force Touch would be a key feature of this year's iPhone models.
Aside from Force Touch, the iPhone 6s will likely bring a new "A9" processor alongside a stiffened chassis --?though the overall design should be nearly identical. Other improvements on tap are rumored to include 2 gigabytes of RAM as standard and a faster, more accurate Touch ID sensor.
Apple is expected to announce its new iPhone alongside an updated Apple TV at a special media event on Sept. 9.
Comments
-A9 processor
-Possible announcement on 9-9
Everything's coming up nines.
If Kuo had any credibility left this just did away with it.
Not even close to being accurate. Many people I know (including four 5s users in the family) typically upgrade their phones to the 's' models. Even if there aren't a lot of changes between the previous phone or not. Anxiously waiting ...
Edit: I thank you AI mods for not modifying my posts to your own ends, especially without notifying me or posting a message that you have done. What other posts do you edit to fit better with you ideology? Criticism of your rehashed articles perhaps?
iPhone 5 era 3-year contracts are now coming up for renewal. maybe that's a good iPhone 6 driver?
Lots of people still using the iPhone 4 and 4S. Maybe that's a good driver?
People in 2011 were implying Siri wasn't enough to drive 4S sales. They were wrong.
Force touch will improve the "big screen" experience. I think it will be enough.
As an example, I think most people who bought the 5S were not aware of what TouchID was about but they bought anyway. And he forgot to mention 64 bit processing so even he doesn't fit his example.
I don't think we will see 30-40% growth YOY, maybe half that but normal upgrade cycles won't allow contraction.
Yeah, no killer apps, some what true, but what he is kind of failing to notice. There is a whole population of users who are not on the 6 platform yet. The 6 platform as a whole does have bunch killer apps and the 6s platform will just add to that. The only issue is how many of those on the smaller phone perfer to stay on the smaller phones. We know that not everyone wants or likes the larger phones the only question will what will Apple have for them in the next go around.
Other upgeade every year. The thing is, the current 6/6+ line-up are so good I think maybe less people will upgrade from 6/6+ this year than previously. Then again, nah why wait if you don't have to
Still loads of iPhone4S/5/5S users to upgrade though
Can't believe some of the comments I'm reading here, some of you need to grow up. Ming-Chi Kuo has an excellent track record as an Apple observer and I agree with him - Force Touch, faster processor and more RAM likely won't be driving huge numbers of upgrades but Apple will still do nicely. And that's fine, all this stuff comes in cycles and Apple will amaze us with the iPhone 7. I see the "S" versions of iPhones as giving Apple the time to develop the next great non-"S" version iPhone.
"...could mean negative iPhone growth"
Yes, exactly, be cause Apple has no idea of what they are doing.
Vast majority of industry profits, growing at of 80% year over year in China (a market that the pundits have been saying for years Apple would never be able to compete in), highest number of Android switchers ever, which, by the way, will only increase with the 6 being discounted by $100 (yes, it's because Apple is aggressively going after Android users that is the reason there won't be a 6c wrapped in plastic), I could go on.
Another year, another set of reasons not to upgrade from the immediately preceding generation of iPhones, and another year of the completely obvious: People DON'T upgrade every year. Nobody I know does (I had a few rich customers whose hobby it was to always have the newest stuff, but that's it).
Why does Apple change form factors only every other year?
How is this newsworthy? Every single year?
Can't believe some of the comments I'm reading here, some of you need to grow up ("Ming Ching Chong"..??? really?).
Thank you. Casual racism is not okay.
What exactly makes the 6S boring whereas the 7 will be amazing?
This goober's prediction of iPhone sales reported in July's quarterly earnings report was 54 million, which set up actual sales of 47 million to appear 'disappointing'.
He's one of the many "analysts" who take one data point and extrapolate.
Goober.
Elijahg was wrong to use that racial cheap shot and deserves to be singled out. The use of the broad "some of you need to grow up " phrase to avoid pointing the finger at a single instance of race-baiting is also weak.
Enough already with his nonsense. Please.