JP Morgan adds to Apple supply chain worries, cuts early 2016 iPhone estimates

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 63
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    ac1234 said:
    A critical undercurrent for many of we long term (decade+) shareholders is the mountain of cash that Apple holds and they can't figure out a way or don't want to return it to shareholders.  If Apple was not performing financially or if they did not have such a huge cash position, many of us would take our losses and invest elsewhere.

    Bring some of the $$$ back onshore - pay the taxes - and distribute huge dividends.  AND, quit wasting $$ on the buybacks - they are not working and rarely do !!
    If your a decade plus holder of the stock there are no "losses" to take..
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 42 of 63
    sog35 said:
    techlover said:
    ???

    Are you sure about that?

    More like late April, 2015. But not January 2015.

    What chart/data are you looking at? 
    It his $133 in Feb 2015, sorry.

    But what's $1500 when you lost $37000.  Friken unreal.
    Nope. No it did not.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=00&b=1&c=2015&d=00&e=31&f=2015&g=d

    Prove me wrong please.
  • Reply 43 of 63
    sog35 said:
    techlover said:
    ???

    Are you sure about that?

    More like late April, 2015. But not January 2015.

    What chart/data are you looking at? 
    It his $133 in Feb 2015, sorry.

    But what's $1500 when you lost $37000.  Friken unreal.
    So you just sold everything? Or is this paper loss?
  • Reply 44 of 63
    techlover said:
    sog35 said:
    It his $133 in Feb 2015, sorry.

    But what's $1500 when you lost $37000.  Friken unreal.
    Nope. No it did not.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=00&b=1&c=2015&d=00&e=31&f=2015&g=d

    Prove me wrong please.
    Just trying to prove one lie with another lie.
    Besides, What are the chances, that he bought at real top of the year, which may be intra-day high.

    As said, nothing makes sense. Two day back he says he sold everything except 800 and before that he says he has options.

    It's like lie spiral just like downward spiral , where you keep making stuff up to prove your lies are not lies.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 45 of 63
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    jfc1138 said:
    ac1234 said:
    A critical undercurrent for many of we long term (decade+) shareholders is the mountain of cash that Apple holds and they can't figure out a way or don't want to return it to shareholders.  If Apple was not performing financially or if they did not have such a huge cash position, many of us would take our losses and invest elsewhere.

    Bring some of the $$$ back onshore - pay the taxes - and distribute huge dividends.  AND, quit wasting $$ on the buybacks - they are not working and rarely do !!
    If your a decade plus holder of the stock there are no "losses" to take..
    You are not thinking like an investor.  The velocity of my ROI has dropped significantly at a time when AAPL has squirreled away huge amounts of cash and is sitting on it.  AAPL today is about where it was 3.5 years ago.
  • Reply 46 of 63
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:
    Just trying to prove one lie with another lie.
    Besides, What are the chances, that he bought at real top of the year, which may be intra-day high.

    As said, nothing makes sense. Two day back he says he sold everything except 800 and before that he says he has options.

    It's like lie spiral just like downward spiral , where you keep making stuff up to prove your lies are not lies.
    Yes I sold everything except 800.
    Yes I bought options and sold options which I closed with a $0 loss.
    I rebought 700 shares the last couple days.

    My average shares was about 1200-1500 during the year.  

    Do you want me to do a screen shot of my account? 
    Yes please, cut down the account number and post screen shot to prove it.
    Besides, you are literally day trading and expecting to have results/profit.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 47 of 63
    shahhet2 said:
    techlover said:
    Just trying to prove one lie with another lie.
    Besides, What are the chances, that he bought at real top of the year, which may be intra-day high.

    As said, nothing makes sense. Two day back he says he sold everything except 800 and before that he says he has options.

    It's like lie spiral just like downward spiral , where you keep making stuff up to prove your lies are not lies.
    But this is fun!

    I want to get to the event-lie-horizon of the black hole of lies that make up the Intersel-lies of the Lie-ception.

    --man I gotta lay off the Christopher Nolan flicks for a while--

     :) 
  • Reply 48 of 63
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    Let me help some of you understand the issue of buybacks as I have opined on:

    Rough figures, Apple has spent about $100 billion on repurchases since the inception of the current program.  There are roughly 6 billion shares outstanding.

    So, add $100 billion from the cash horde - you now have $200 billion to distribute to shareholders.  Spread that out over the 6 billion shares and you get $33.33/share.

    If you held 5000 shares you would receive $166,000 in a dividend.

    By contrast, we get a $2 dividend per share/year - $10,000 a year.



    edited December 2015 cnocbui
  • Reply 49 of 63
    sog35 said:
    So you just sold everything? Or is this paper loss?
    Sold nothing. I'm not going to let Wall Street 'steal' my money.  Won't sell till I'm in my grave or its fairly valued.  I'll take this down to my grave. Fuc Wall Street.
    So you didn't lose anything.
    I'm as frustrated as the next guy, but I'm in it for the long haul.
    AAPL is hugely undervalued but climbs when forced to by actual results. I wish it were properly valued, but what can you do if you don't have a billion dollar hedge fund or thousands of millionaires giving you their money to invest?
    I'm still happy- bought AAPL two splits ago for $32/share.
  • Reply 50 of 63
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    Yes please, cut down the account number and post screen shot to prove it.
    Besides, you are literally day trading and expecting to have results/profit.
    friken pathetic that I have to post this.


    I don't doubt that you hold stocks. Everyone figures that you are holding chunk of stocks and that's why you are bitter one here.
    I don't think that you lost $37,000 alone this year as you are pointing out few posts above.

    Besides if you counting loss from top most point, then you should count profit from bottom most point of June 2013, where it was around $55., so you have profit of  $82,500(100% up) from bottom most point(June 2013/2.5 years ago) and still complaining that AAPL stock should do better then this?

    Not many big market cap company can give you profit of 100% in 2.5 years? 
    Just putting in perspective on how you calculate your $37,000 loss.
  • Reply 51 of 63
    We can all go back and forth between different highs and lows to define AAPL performance.

    The trend - the trend


  • Reply 52 of 63
    dws-2 said:
    They have started selling almost all their products (except iPhones) at larger discounts than normal to get big promotions from big box stores. 
    Are you sure this is true?  My understanding is that the big box stores are the ones offering discount on Apple products and it's not Apple who's lower their prices (and margins and profits).  The reason they do this is to get people in their store.  In other words, because Apple products are so popular it's natural to use them as loss leaders.  I hope I'm not guilty of wishful thinking, so I hope you're mistaken, but I don't know for sure one way or the other.
    Quite certain you are correct about the chain stores using the iPhone as a loss leader.
  • Reply 53 of 63
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:
    Just trying to prove one lie with another lie.
    Besides, What are the chances, that he bought at real top of the year, which may be intra-day high.

    As said, nothing makes sense. Two day back he says he sold everything except 800 and before that he says he has options.

    It's like lie spiral just like downward spiral , where you keep making stuff up to prove your lies are not lies.
    Yes I sold everything except 800.
    Yes I bought options and sold options which I closed with a $0 loss.
    I rebought 700 shares the last couple days.

    My average shares was about 1200-1500 during the year.  

    Do you want me to do a screen shot of my account? 
    Holy crap, dude, quit your whining.

    I have over 5x your holdings and I haven't lost a dime....because I haven't sold.

    Even though AAPL has gained ~9000% in valuation since I invested in '98, I haven't earned a dime, either (aside from dividends).

    I have neither lost nor earned...because I haven't sold.

    You've lost nothing because you haven't sold. 

    Losses and gains are never realized until the shares are sold.

    As they say...if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.


    edited December 2015 SpamSandwich
  • Reply 54 of 63
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    ac1234 said:
    eightzero said:
    Silence is not nothing. Meanwhile, they plan a massive stock buyback at low prices. 
    To accomplish what ????  Over $100,000,000,000 of shareholder value has been wasted on this buyback scheme.
    People might say it helped the stick not fall further but those counter factuals are hard to prove. 
  • Reply 55 of 63
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    ac1234 said:
    Let me help some of you understand the issue of buybacks as I have opined on:

    Rough figures, Apple has spent about $100 billion on repurchases since the inception of the current program.  There are roughly 6 billion shares outstanding.

    So, add $100 billion from the cash horde - you now have $200 billion to distribute to shareholders.  Spread that out over the 6 billion shares and you get $33.33/share.

    If you held 5000 shares you would receive $166,000 in a dividend.

    By contrast, we get a $2 dividend per share/year - $10,000 a year.



    I have said several times that Apple only has to announce an intention to pay a decent dividend going forward, rather than this weird buy-back thing, and the share price would take off like it had rocket boosters strapped to it.
    palomine
  • Reply 56 of 63
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    asdasd said:
    ac1234 said:
    To accomplish what ????  Over $100,000,000,000 of shareholder value has been wasted on this buyback scheme.
    People might say it helped the stick not fall further but those counter factuals are hard to prove. 
    I agree - but a huge special dividend in my pocket would be rock solid ROI - let AAPL stock price be set by the market and not artificially "enhanced" through buybacks.

    The critical question is "why AAPL needs to be propped up?" given its solid metrics.  My premise is that Tim Cook and the board are doing a miserable job at shareholder return.
  • Reply 57 of 63
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,088member
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:

    From your desperation it looks like, you are invested very heavily in options that may be expiring soon and you will loose all values if AAPL price don't go up soon.

    I really don't think that price is going to move anytime soon until results comes in Jan End.
    I also think that results of current quarter will not matter, even if they are outstanding but outlook for the next quarter/year will matter the most.
    That's where all analyst are pointing the down drift.

    Either stop playing with options/stocks all together (Not only AAPL) or have courage to take bigger profit/loss.
    I What Wall Street is doing is CRIMINAL.  Its like saying you bought a car at Toyota.  But then you realize the car has no engine in it.  Would you not bitch about it?  Oh but why don't you just sell the car if you don't like it!!!  That's the same thing as telling someone just to sell his stock when its criminally under valued.

    That's just another windmill since it's NOT criminal. Not one darn thing you can do to make it any different than it is. Nuthin. Sell the Apple investment and move on. Surely you know of better investments if near-term returns are of utmost importance. If they aren't then what's the problem? Apple will only become more valuable over time. Just not as fast as in the past. 
  • Reply 58 of 63
    ac1234 said:
    asdasd said:...
    I agree - but a huge special dividend in my pocket would be rock solid ROI - let AAPL stock price be set by the market and not artificially "enhanced" through buybacks.

    The critical question is "why AAPL needs to be propped up?" given its solid metrics.  My premise is that Tim Cook and the board are doing a miserable job at shareholder return.
    Seeing as it was Carl Icahn who was making the most noise about a buyback, there's more than one good argument that the buyback has been ineffective and/or should be reevaluated or ended. If lackluster companies like Google/Alphabet and Amazon can generate stock growth based on almost nothing, Apple should really look for a solid, experienced hire with an eye toward solidifying the stock. Whether than means via PR or strategic planning, I do not know. Obviously the company and products continue to perform well and that repeatedly fails to translate into stock movement.
    edited December 2015 palomine
  • Reply 59 of 63
    The parade of analysts concerned about weak outlooks from Apple suppliers continues to grow, with J.P. Morgan on Thursday advising investors that it is reducing near-term forecasts for iPhone sales.




    Analyst Rod Hall noted that he still sees AAPL stock as "attractive," and advised investors to use any "weakness" in the stock in early 2016 as an opportunity to increase holdings.

    Though J.P Morgan remains "overweight" on Apple, the firm did reduce its March quarter iPhone estimates by 8 percent, or 4.9 million units. Hall now sees Apple shipping 55 million iPhones in the three-month span, which would be a decrease from the 61 million iPhones the company sold in its March 2015 quarter.

    Like others who have reduced estimates in recent days, Hall was prompted by Apple suppliers, who have indicated some weakness heading into the coming quarters. Specifically, Hall said that comments by Dialog Semiconductor suggest the March quarter could be weaker than expected, while low numbers from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have prompted a "cautious" view for the proceeding June quarter.

    Hall has left his June 2016 quarter estimates untouched, calling for Apple to ship 51 million iPhones in the three-month span. He believes any weakness could be offset by demand for a new, lower-priced 4-inch iPhone model, which is rumored to be in the works.

    Hall is more bullish on Apple's fiscal 2017, however, when the company is expected to offer a next-generation "iPhone 7." He sees iPhone shipments returning to 7 percent growth, reaching 251 million units, while average selling prices are projected to decline 4 percent to $624.

    Finally, Hall also reduced his estimates for sales of the Apple Watch to 23.5 million in fiscal year 2016. That's a reduction of 6.5 million from his previous estimate.

    Foxconn


    Despite the reductions, J.P. Morgan has maintained its $145 December 2016 price target on shares of AAPL.

    Though analysts have been reducing estimates, they have largely stood by Apple as a solid investment going forward. But investors are concerned that the current iPhone 6s cycle may not drive continued growth for the smartphone platform.

    For its part, Apple has advised investors not to read too much into supply chain data for years. Its complex array of component suppliers can vary based on a number of factors, including pricing, yield rates, availability and more.

    Back in 2013, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said basing assumptions about sales based on limited data is not recommended.

    "Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to interpret that data point as to what it meant for our business," Cook said.
    Why haven't these well informed analysts reported the recent (December 15th) 10% increase of Apple IPhones in China? Isn't that a number a significant yoy increase in sales? Doesn't that number indicate Apple is thriving from strong, robust sales? My instincts suspect some analysts deliberately mislead investors, by not disclosing beneficial information of a company. Back in August, September, and part of October analysts worried about the slowing Chinese economy affecting iPhones sales in China. As a result of this misinformation, the price of the stock was kept down. Well, Apple's quarterly earnings report which many anxiously awaited sure disproved these misguided concerns, and beat the street's estimate. Although Apple's positive earnings report sparked a rally, it was short lived by Credit Suisse's supply chain report. By the end of November, short interest in Apple shares soared to 53%, making Apple fifth on the list of the most shorted stocks. Like a school of piranha, if left unchallenged the'll devour Apple Inc.  
  • Reply 60 of 63
    star55 - good points.

    Who is in the best position to challenge these analysts?

    Why haven't they?
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