Supply chain suggests iPhone orders will rebound this summer ahead of 'iPhone 7' launch

AppleInsider

Forecast trends in the demand for flexible PCB (printed circuit board) parts for iPhones indicate that while iPhone production may be down in the first half of the year, it will likely rebound in the second half as work begins on Apple's next-generation models.

FPCB suppliers are expecting sales to pick up in June or July as other companies in the iPhone supply chain work to produce components for the new devices, DigiTimes supply chain sources said on Wednesday. In the meantime, however, FPCB shipments are predicted to decline year-over-year.

The sources noted that iPhones have become increasingly depenedent on FPCBs because of larger displays, 3D Touch, and Apple's drive to make devices increasingly thin. Suppliers are believed to include Flexium Interconnect and Zhen Ding Technology Holding.

In its most recent results call, Apple guided to its first-ever iPhone sales decline for the March quarter, following relatively modest growth in the previous quarter. CEO Tim Cook attributed the situation to blockbuster results last year, combined with current global economic problems.

Some analysts have expressed concerns, however, because the iPhone is Apple's primary revenue generator, and the company has traditionally enjoyed substantial growth with it -- sometimes in double-digit percentages.

canukstorm

sog35 said:

Love me some supply chain rumors.

So obvious Wall Street is going to pump up Apple stock for the iPhone7 launch.

2012 - juice stock to $100. Sell to retail investors
2013 - bash stock to $54. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bough at $90-$100
2015 - juice stock up to $134. Sell to retail investors.
2016 - bash stock to $94. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bought at $120-$130
2016 - juice stock to $150

Financial engineering at its best

tmay

sog35 said:

Love me some supply chain rumors.

So obvious Wall Street is going to pump up Apple stock for the iPhone7 launch.

2012 - juice stock to $100. Sell to retail investors
2013 - bash stock to $54. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bough at $90-$100
2015 - juice stock up to $134. Sell to retail investors.
2016 - bash stock to $94. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bought at $120-$130
2016 - juice stock to $150

You might want to look at AAPL and GOOG this morning.

I expect that Wall Street would have liked to get a better pump out of GOOG than they did; looks like a lot of profit taking at a minimum.

I'm fine that it's Alphabet's turn in the barrel.

tmay

sog35 said:

tmay said:

You might want to look at AAPL and GOOG this morning.

I expect that Wall Street would have liked to get a better pump out of GOOG than they did; looks like a lot of profit taking at a minimum.

I'm fine that it's Alphabet's turn in the barrel.

I think the rotation is over.

For the rest of the year we will see AAPL go up and GOOGL go down.  

I would not be surprised in the least if Apple sees $150 this year on the iPhone7 hype. With iPhone7 hype Wall Street can easily model $11 EPS for FY2017.  That gives you $150 with a PE of 13.5

Well, Wall Street got some $200 plus billion out of the hands of Apple stockholders and into the Casino; I don't doubt that they can "revalue" APPL and get those same billions back into APPL, with a tidy skim as it were.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

radster360

Here we go again with supply chain rumors! And what was the market Anal-ysts saying not too long ago.

Tim Cook was right as he runs the company and is a master of these things - Supply Chain is complex and don't try to make something out of pieces of data. I hope there are lot more such stories, even if they might be inaccurate. Because, either side of the rumor does not give correct information.

JamesBB

Today Tim Cook starts repurchasing shares after a 6 week blackout period... enough said... anyone who sold rather than bought during this downturn is being taken to the cleaners by WS.

ireland

Don't trust supply chain rumours positive or negative for Apple.

schlack

good buying opportunity. as i have said before. if apple never grew its market share again...but continued to rake in the profit it currently is bringing in...it could completely buy itself out and go private in several years...

radster360

tmay said:

sog35 said:

Love me some supply chain rumors.

So obvious Wall Street is going to pump up Apple stock for the iPhone7 launch.

2012 - juice stock to $100. Sell to retail investors
2013 - bash stock to $54. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bough at $90-$100
2015 - juice stock up to $134. Sell to retail investors.
2016 - bash stock to $94. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bought at $120-$130
2016 - juice stock to $150

You might want to look at AAPL and GOOG this morning.

I expect that Wall Street would have liked to get a better pump out of GOOG than they did; looks like a lot of profit taking at a minimum.

I'm fine that it's Alphabet's turn in the barrel.

I love to see the shit face of MarketWatch and CNBC who kept hammering the story about Apple going to soon lose their crown of most market cap company of the world to Alphabet and now Apple is a single product company, etc. I guess that didn't last for too long - Did it? Who is laughing now MW and CNBC? 

5150iii

sog35 said:

tmay said:

You might want to look at AAPL and GOOG this morning.

I expect that Wall Street would have liked to get a better pump out of GOOG than they did; looks like a lot of profit taking at a minimum.

I'm fine that it's Alphabet's turn in the barrel.

I think the rotation is over.

For the rest of the year we will see AAPL go up and GOOGL go down.  

I would not be surprised in the least if Apple sees $150 this year on the iPhone7 hype. With iPhone7 hype Wall Street can easily model $11 EPS for FY2017.  That gives you $150 with a PE of 13.5

$150 huh? This ought to be interesting.

P.S. I agree with your thesis.

jonl

Lots of talk about "rumors". Reminder: The difference this time is that these are the usual rumors and chatter, not bad earnings and guidance issued by multiple suppliers in their quarterly reports. I'm not giving an opinion on the content of these new rumors, just drawing the distinction which few people seem to get. It's important.

tmay

jonl said:

Lots of talk about "rumors". Reminder: The difference this time is that these are the usual rumors and chatter, not bad earnings and guidance issued by multiple suppliers in their quarterly reports. I'm not giving an opinion on the content of these new rumors, just drawing the distinction which few people seem to get. It's important.

People need to understand that there is in fact a recessionary environment in most of the world's economies today. I buy Aluminum and copper for various things I make and the prices are as low as they were a decade ago.

Apple will do well just to maintain flat growth, even slight negative growth would be fine, for the foreseeable future, but I would like them to maintain their margins and continue to delight us with new products and services. This is the rainy day that will make that cash worth having; lots of M&A opportunities may await.

jfc1138

tmay said:

sog35 said:

Love me some supply chain rumors.

So obvious Wall Street is going to pump up Apple stock for the iPhone7 launch.

2012 - juice stock to $100. Sell to retail investors
2013 - bash stock to $54. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bough at $90-$100
2015 - juice stock up to $134. Sell to retail investors.
2016 - bash stock to $94. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bought at $120-$130
2016 - juice stock to $150

You might want to look at AAPL and GOOG this morning.

I expect that Wall Street would have liked to get a better pump out of GOOG than they did; looks like a lot of profit taking at a minimum.

I'm fine that it's Alphabet's turn in the barrel.

Once under the microscope that 99% reliance on advertising for revenue of Alphabet will  make Apple seem positively evenly weighted....

aaplguy

canukstorm said:

sog35 said:

Love me some supply chain rumors.

So obvious Wall Street is going to pump up Apple stock for the iPhone7 launch.

2012 - juice stock to $100. Sell to retail investors
2013 - bash stock to $54. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bough at $90-$100
2015 - juice stock up to $134. Sell to retail investors.
2016 - bash stock to $94. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bought at $120-$130
2016 - juice stock to $150

Financial engineering at its best

No, that is manipulation not engineering.  Further more, anyone can take advantage of this simple cycle.  By low (Jan after the "S" upgrade), sell high (Mar after the model # upgrade).  The problem is that the iP6 was a huge from factor upgrade (phablet) if Apple cannot move the #'s with the iP7...you will see a quick reversal. 

narcoma

JamesBB said:

Today Tim Cook starts repurchasing shares after a 6 week blackout period... enough said... anyone who sold rather than bought during this downturn is being taken to the cleaners by WS.

Do you have a solid link for this? I thought the blackout period was before earnings. If you are correct, it would translate to 5 weeks before and 1 week after E. Thanks in advance for clarification.

jonl

You guys realize the blackout period applies only to opportunistic buybacks, right? Scheduled buybacks proceed apace. Apple's been buying stock steadily every day.

patchythepirate

sog35 said:

Love me some supply chain rumors.

So obvious Wall Street is going to pump up Apple stock for the iPhone7 launch.

2012 - juice stock to $100. Sell to retail investors
2013 - bash stock to $54. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bough at $90-$100
2015 - juice stock up to $134. Sell to retail investors.
2016 - bash stock to $94. Scare retail investors to sell the same stock they bought at $120-$130
2016 - juice stock to $150

Exactly. Anyone with a bit of awareness around Apple can see that what happens to AAPL is complete manipulation, and that there is a blatantly obvious, concerted effort to bash AAPL in the financial media (WSJ, seeking alpha, etc.).* People are constantly trying to come up with an organic reason for AAPL's valuation, but nothing really comes close to explaining the ridiculous valuation of AAPL, and particularly the discrepancy between AAPL and other tech companies.

I usually enjoy and appreciate your posts, and I'm glad you're still posting, but the Tim bashing was beyond ridiculous. There's very little that he could've done to change the cycle of manipulation. Even if he could've had a slight impact, the amount of groveling that he would've had to do to the produce-nothing a holes on wall street is beneath him, and certainly beneath Apple.

*It was interesting to see that AAPL got a little bump after Eddie Cue spoke at a WSJ event; my guess is that it's not typical for Apple to 'play ball' with the powers that be.

josu

tmay said:

sog35 said:

I think the rotation is over.

For the rest of the year we will see AAPL go up and GOOGL go down.  

I would not be surprised in the least if Apple sees $150 this year on the iPhone7 hype. With iPhone7 hype Wall Street can easily model $11 EPS for FY2017.  That gives you $150 with a PE of 13.5

Well, Wall Street got some $200 plus billion out of the hands of Apple stockholders and into the Casino; I don't doubt that they can "revalue" APPL and get those same billions back into APPL, with a tidy skim as it were.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Those billions you speak about are theoretical, there is nothing real in market cap, is a theoretical figure, no stockholders don't have lose 200 billions, I have never lose a dime with Apple in this sixteen years, The only real money that moves is the dividend I have get from them. And to date I only can say that Apple have nearly repaid all my investment, if not, this year will happen. So, no, sorry, don't built pies in the sky, nobody lose money, or wins for that matter, until the stock is sold.

josu

radster360 said:

Here we go again with supply chain rumors! And what was the market Anal-ysts saying not too long ago.

Tim Cook was right as he runs the company and is a master of these things - Supply Chain is complex and don't try to make something out of pieces of data. I hope there are lot more such stories, even if they might be inaccurate. Because, either side of the rumor does not give correct information.

OK last time they where right, so this time they can be too. The only complain I got over this rumor is that the previous ones speak about a quarter of softness due to stock adjustments in the channel. This is speaking about softness for two quarters. 

josu

ireland said:

Don't trust supply chain rumours positive or negative for Apple.

Right, but there was certain truth in the previous ones. That said, only if it develops a cascade of following ones would be a smoke with fire, otherwise, and coming from Digitizes, most to credible.

josu

schlack said:

good buying opportunity. as i have said before. if apple never grew its market share again...but continued to rake in the profit it currently is bringing in...it could completely buy itself out and go private in several years...

No, it will end up being mine, I will die before selling my shares if Apple want mine, they will be the last in the market, I will be very happy in my new Cupertino hula hop styled home, and my home theatre is very beautiful one. I will put a farm in the rounded inner garden and a Heli pod. And those thousands of garage spaces are a dream come true for a car guy like me. I could store all the crap on wheels I love. And believe me, every car guy has its own weird secret love on wheels.