Future of the MacBook, MacBook Air and MacBook Pro
This discussion has been going on in a bunch of threads, including (somewhat improbably) one in the iPhone forum... I thought I'd post my own hopes, guesses and concerns in a thread that is obviously about what we once called PowerBooks, and hope that others will chime in as well.
It seems very likely that we'll see some version of Skylake MacBook Pros and maybe MacBook Airs coming very soon (the Airs could possibly be left to wither on the vine, as the 13" non-Retina MBP has been left as the last Mac with a SuperDrive). We could also see a merging of Pro and Air lines in some way, or a lineup that had something like 12"MacBook/14"MacBook Air/16" MacBook Pro - one size each, ports, power and screen size going up together. I am somewhat concerned about the possibility that everything becomes a MacBook, with reduced performance and minimal ports...
Possibility #1: redesign? What redesign? - Apple could introduce new Skylake MBPs as a silent intro before or after WWDC, and, if they did this, they'd probably look an awful lot like what we have now. CPU performance would increase modestly, especially on the 15", which never got Broadwell and is coming from a two year old processor that is a very close relative of a three year old processor (the midrange model uses a "Haswell refresh" i7-4870HQ that is pretty much identical to the older 4850HQ which first showed up on a 2013 MBP). The 13" model is already on Broadwell, so the jump to Skylake would be even more modest. The jump from Haswell to Skylake integrated graphics is pretty dramatic, and Apple could source a substantially better performing discrete GPU for the top model. There is a possibility that 32 GB of RAM, a 2 TB SSD or both might be available on the 15" model, for a price (and a perhaps lesser possibility of a screen update). I would suspect that the port lineup would be similar, but not identical (my guess is that we'd probably lose one USB port and one Thunderbolt port in return for a pair of USB-C ports). I would suspect the Airs lose out if the Pros go this way - the only non-Retina Mac (other than a sad bottom model of the iMac) makes no sense when it's half a pound lighter than the just-updated Pro, and the 11" Air already makes no sense with the MacBook out there
Variant: Apple does the above to the 15" Pro, either discontinues the 13" Pro or leaves it to rot, and does some variety of a 13" Retina Air instead. There's probably no reason why the 13" Pro screen won't go in the Air case, and they could easily give it a 16 GB RAM option and perhaps a 1 TB SSD option. The 13" Air and 13" Pro are awfully close, and I'd expect Apple to update one or the other but not both(barring a major redesign, my money's on the Pro because it's already Retina, but I could be wrong).
Possibility #2: New MacBook Pro (s) -If Apple put some serious design effort into the MacBook line, a positive outcome would be something like a 12" (existing MacBook)/14"/16" combination. I'd expect the largest model to retain the MacBook Pro name, and I could see the middle model being called MacBook, MacBook Air or MacBook Pro. All the redesigned machines would probably get thinner, given Apple's tendencies.
All the redesigned machines would probably get Force Touch and some variant of the MacBook's "butterfly" keyboard - hopefully an improved version in the models with more room. I'd have a fair amount of hope for a new screen (4K, wide-gamut or both) in the top model, and for the availability of 32 GB of RAM, a 2 TB SSD or both. I'd expect a new port lineup based around USB-C, but hopefully retaining at least one USB port and one Thunderbolt port that don't need adapters for older peripherals. I'm not at all sure that the HDMI port or the SD reader would make the cut, although I would hope for both. If I were to guess (and this is purely a guess) about the ports, I'd say that the top (16"?) MacBook Pro would retain conventional USB, Thunderbolt and one or the other of HDMI or SD, while the 14"(?) middle model keeps a USB port or two but loses the rest.
An Apple redesign could always contain an unexpected feature or two - from something small like Touch ID on up... One I'd love to see is an Apple take on a numeric keypad - I don't think they'll ever include "just a numeric keypad" - even their old 17" MBPs (which had PLENTY of room, and were just about the only 17" laptops ever NOT to feature a numeric keypad) never did. My concept of an Apple take on the idea is some sort of programmable buttons or keys (which could even be a touch surface instead of physical keys), with an eInk or other low power display on them so they display their function differently based on what you're doing. The original idea is from Art Lebedev, who released the Optimus Maximus keyboard with displays on every key. It was outrageously expensive, and the feel was never right, so it never made a real impact (my guess is that only a few hundred were made). We've seen versions of the idea on one laptop (the Razer Blade Pro) and a couple of gaming keyboards, along with several specialized audio and video control surfaces. Apple could do this right (and I suspect Jony Ive has a keyboard less Mac that uses nothing but a configurable touch surface tucked away somewhere, but I'd be shocked if they had the force feedback good enough for THAT one yet - it has to feel a lot better than typing on an iPad screen).
The redesigned MacBook Pro might even come with a new adapter that provided some extra ports - as long as there are ports on both the computer and the adapter, an adapter/docking station would be welcome (best if there's both a compact travel adapter and a perhaps optional port-laden docking adapter - the Thunderbolt Display was an expensive version of this idea)
Possibility #3: It's all MacBook, like it or not... - Also something like a 12"/14"/16" lineup, but with more emphasis on weight reduction instead of performance... I'd say it's all MacBook if we see any of the following (even if we get a 4K screen or something similar):
1.) Top model actually SLOWER than the top Haswell model, because the CPU moved down the power curve.
2.) No model with a discrete GPU (I'm expecting the discrete GPU only on one variant of the largest screen size, but I hope it's there).
3.) Less than 4 total multipurpose ports (USB, USB-C, Thunderbolt, but not counting HDMI, MagSafe or the card reader) on the top model, less than 3 on the middle model - subtract one from the count if either charges over USB-C only, because most of the time you're using more than one peripheral, you're also plugged in (I could see them charging over USB-C AND MagSafe, to make USB-C docks as easy as possible, but provide MagSafe for on the go charging where tripping on a cord is a bigger issue. At least to me, one or two ports on the AC adapter count towards the total, but ALL the ports (or even all the standard USB ports) being on the adapter makes it a MacBook (although an innovative one).
4.) Top model missing either USB or Thunderbolt
5.) 14" or 13" model missing USB (I could see the midsize losing Thunderbolt without being a disaster - most people who hook their laptops to RAID units don't buy the 13")
6.) (more arguable) HDMI port missing, no standard video output - the only way to connect a projector involves a dongle (of course, Apple will say "that's why you use a wireless projector").
7.) (more arguable) compromised keyboard that doesn't feel as good as previous model on a larger machine for thickness' sake. I haven't used a MacBook enough to know if that keyboard is as good as what's in the Haswell Pros.
I REALLY hope this doesn't happen, but it seems all too possibly Apple...
It seems very likely that we'll see some version of Skylake MacBook Pros and maybe MacBook Airs coming very soon (the Airs could possibly be left to wither on the vine, as the 13" non-Retina MBP has been left as the last Mac with a SuperDrive). We could also see a merging of Pro and Air lines in some way, or a lineup that had something like 12"MacBook/14"MacBook Air/16" MacBook Pro - one size each, ports, power and screen size going up together. I am somewhat concerned about the possibility that everything becomes a MacBook, with reduced performance and minimal ports...
Possibility #1: redesign? What redesign? - Apple could introduce new Skylake MBPs as a silent intro before or after WWDC, and, if they did this, they'd probably look an awful lot like what we have now. CPU performance would increase modestly, especially on the 15", which never got Broadwell and is coming from a two year old processor that is a very close relative of a three year old processor (the midrange model uses a "Haswell refresh" i7-4870HQ that is pretty much identical to the older 4850HQ which first showed up on a 2013 MBP). The 13" model is already on Broadwell, so the jump to Skylake would be even more modest. The jump from Haswell to Skylake integrated graphics is pretty dramatic, and Apple could source a substantially better performing discrete GPU for the top model. There is a possibility that 32 GB of RAM, a 2 TB SSD or both might be available on the 15" model, for a price (and a perhaps lesser possibility of a screen update). I would suspect that the port lineup would be similar, but not identical (my guess is that we'd probably lose one USB port and one Thunderbolt port in return for a pair of USB-C ports). I would suspect the Airs lose out if the Pros go this way - the only non-Retina Mac (other than a sad bottom model of the iMac) makes no sense when it's half a pound lighter than the just-updated Pro, and the 11" Air already makes no sense with the MacBook out there
Variant: Apple does the above to the 15" Pro, either discontinues the 13" Pro or leaves it to rot, and does some variety of a 13" Retina Air instead. There's probably no reason why the 13" Pro screen won't go in the Air case, and they could easily give it a 16 GB RAM option and perhaps a 1 TB SSD option. The 13" Air and 13" Pro are awfully close, and I'd expect Apple to update one or the other but not both(barring a major redesign, my money's on the Pro because it's already Retina, but I could be wrong).
Possibility #2: New MacBook Pro (s) -If Apple put some serious design effort into the MacBook line, a positive outcome would be something like a 12" (existing MacBook)/14"/16" combination. I'd expect the largest model to retain the MacBook Pro name, and I could see the middle model being called MacBook, MacBook Air or MacBook Pro. All the redesigned machines would probably get thinner, given Apple's tendencies.
All the redesigned machines would probably get Force Touch and some variant of the MacBook's "butterfly" keyboard - hopefully an improved version in the models with more room. I'd have a fair amount of hope for a new screen (4K, wide-gamut or both) in the top model, and for the availability of 32 GB of RAM, a 2 TB SSD or both. I'd expect a new port lineup based around USB-C, but hopefully retaining at least one USB port and one Thunderbolt port that don't need adapters for older peripherals. I'm not at all sure that the HDMI port or the SD reader would make the cut, although I would hope for both. If I were to guess (and this is purely a guess) about the ports, I'd say that the top (16"?) MacBook Pro would retain conventional USB, Thunderbolt and one or the other of HDMI or SD, while the 14"(?) middle model keeps a USB port or two but loses the rest.
An Apple redesign could always contain an unexpected feature or two - from something small like Touch ID on up... One I'd love to see is an Apple take on a numeric keypad - I don't think they'll ever include "just a numeric keypad" - even their old 17" MBPs (which had PLENTY of room, and were just about the only 17" laptops ever NOT to feature a numeric keypad) never did. My concept of an Apple take on the idea is some sort of programmable buttons or keys (which could even be a touch surface instead of physical keys), with an eInk or other low power display on them so they display their function differently based on what you're doing. The original idea is from Art Lebedev, who released the Optimus Maximus keyboard with displays on every key. It was outrageously expensive, and the feel was never right, so it never made a real impact (my guess is that only a few hundred were made). We've seen versions of the idea on one laptop (the Razer Blade Pro) and a couple of gaming keyboards, along with several specialized audio and video control surfaces. Apple could do this right (and I suspect Jony Ive has a keyboard less Mac that uses nothing but a configurable touch surface tucked away somewhere, but I'd be shocked if they had the force feedback good enough for THAT one yet - it has to feel a lot better than typing on an iPad screen).
The redesigned MacBook Pro might even come with a new adapter that provided some extra ports - as long as there are ports on both the computer and the adapter, an adapter/docking station would be welcome (best if there's both a compact travel adapter and a perhaps optional port-laden docking adapter - the Thunderbolt Display was an expensive version of this idea)
Possibility #3: It's all MacBook, like it or not... - Also something like a 12"/14"/16" lineup, but with more emphasis on weight reduction instead of performance... I'd say it's all MacBook if we see any of the following (even if we get a 4K screen or something similar):
1.) Top model actually SLOWER than the top Haswell model, because the CPU moved down the power curve.
2.) No model with a discrete GPU (I'm expecting the discrete GPU only on one variant of the largest screen size, but I hope it's there).
3.) Less than 4 total multipurpose ports (USB, USB-C, Thunderbolt, but not counting HDMI, MagSafe or the card reader) on the top model, less than 3 on the middle model - subtract one from the count if either charges over USB-C only, because most of the time you're using more than one peripheral, you're also plugged in (I could see them charging over USB-C AND MagSafe, to make USB-C docks as easy as possible, but provide MagSafe for on the go charging where tripping on a cord is a bigger issue. At least to me, one or two ports on the AC adapter count towards the total, but ALL the ports (or even all the standard USB ports) being on the adapter makes it a MacBook (although an innovative one).
4.) Top model missing either USB or Thunderbolt
5.) 14" or 13" model missing USB (I could see the midsize losing Thunderbolt without being a disaster - most people who hook their laptops to RAID units don't buy the 13")
6.) (more arguable) HDMI port missing, no standard video output - the only way to connect a projector involves a dongle (of course, Apple will say "that's why you use a wireless projector").
7.) (more arguable) compromised keyboard that doesn't feel as good as previous model on a larger machine for thickness' sake. I haven't used a MacBook enough to know if that keyboard is as good as what's in the Haswell Pros.
I REALLY hope this doesn't happen, but it seems all too possibly Apple...
Comments
On the Mac itself - something like 2 USB, 2 USB-C, HDMI, SD Card Reader, 1 Thunderbolt (larger model) - smaller one loses the Thunderbolt, a USB and a USB-C.
Ships with a Travel Adapter that either connects via USB-C and provides a USB-C port and a USB port OR connects via MagSafe and has no ports of its own. Travel Adapter can be a little smaller and lighter than previous Mac adapters (which are already smaller and lighter than most PC adapters for comparable computers) because it doesn't necessarily charge the computer if it's running flat-out (it'll charge a sleeping Mac, a sleeping Mac charging an iPad, or a Mac in Word Safari or Mail). It will provide enough power to render in Final Cut (or do anything else intensive) without draining the battery, but it WON'T necessarily render and charge simultaneously (and it certainly won't render and charge while there's an iPad Pro trying to charge off the USB port).
$149-$249 accessory - Apple USB-C Dock. Provides ~150 watts of power (which will render, charge the computer AND charge an iPad Pro), connects via USB-C, has a bunch of ports on the dock.
Something like (most of):
4 USB 3.0
3 USB-C
2 Thunderbolt
HDMI
Full-size DisplayPort
Gigabit Ethernet (bonus points if it's 10 Gigabit, or if there's a WiFi antenna that boosts signal).
Essentially the Thunderbolt Display without the display - works with any USB-C Mac (makes life easier on owners of the existing 12" MacBook as well). As a matter of fact, it then becomes easy to make a $999 accessory that includes this plus the 5K display from the 5K iMac...
I'm not sure what your point is about the processor. Are you lamenting the difference in performance between Skylake and Haswell on 15"? It seems like it. The Skylake architecture is a next generation one. I don't know about benchmarks, but Skylake has a number of features simply not possible on either of its cousins, including support for wireless charging, from my understanding. Skylake is not a "modest" upgrade. It is the cutting edge.
Now, that being said, possibility #1 is the only likely option. I would be very surprised if they changed form factors/screen sizes. My guess at this time is Skylake, USB-C, more storage and RAM, a modest cosmetic redesign and possibly Touch ID integrated into the ForceTouch trackpad. I doubt it will be anything like a touch bar or what not as described in today's article. This is based on Apple's past upgrade behavior, as well as the fact that the machine has gone a year without an update. I suppose there is a possibility of a significant redesign, which would explain the skipping of processors.
Apple is not going to release a USB-C dock, or an "all MacBook" line. Same goes on the travel adapter, though I do enjoy the good old wish list posting. That hasn't been a big thing here for the last several years.