'iPhone 7' sales pitch seen as key for 275M iPhone owners running devices more than 2 years old

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in iPhone
The success of this year's "iPhone 7" could depend largely on Apple's ability to convince a growing number of users on pre-iPhone 6 models that it's time to finally upgrade, one analyst believes.




Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray issued a note to investors on Monday after Apple officially announced its Sept. 7 media event. There, the company is expected to unveil its 2016 iPhone, featuring a tweaked design with improved cameras, and without a 3.5-millimeter headphone jack.

Munster estimates that among the current iPhone install base, some 275 million users are on devices more than two years old. Those are potential customers using handsets with screen sizes of 4 inches and smaller, who could be key customers to entice into upgrading to a larger display.

It's expected that this year's "iPhone 7" will feature the same screen sizes of 4.7 inches for the base model, and 5.5 inches for the larger "Plus" model. Beyond the removal of the headphone jack, improved cameras -- including a new dual-lens design for the "iPhone 7 Plus" -- are expected to be the main selling point.

Munster suggested that investor expectations for the so-called "iPhone 7" are low. As a result, he believes any unexpected announcements or features unveiled next week --?such as an improvement in battery life over the current iPhone 6s series -- could help propel shares of AAPL higher.

In his view, Apple has "two shots on goal" over the next year: First, the "iPhone 7" this fall, followed by an anticipated major redesign of the iPhone for its 10th anniversary next year.




In all, Munster has forecast sales of 234.5 million iPhones in Apple's fiscal year 2017. He believes about 150 million of those will be of the new flagship "iPhone 7" series.

But the 2017 redesign could result in a "super-cycle," he said, representing a more meaningful hardware update and attracting device owners with older devices.

All will be revealed next Wednesday at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern, when Apple will announce its fall product lineup. AppleInsider will be there live in San Francisco at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium with full coverage of the keynote presentation and hands-on impressions with any new products.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 17
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,698member
    To be honest, statements by "analysts" are not even worthy of being given a headline, due to how inaccurate and clueless they have proved themselves to be, time after time.

    Wasn't this the analyst who was claiming that Apple would be releasing an Apple TV (a real tv, not the little black box) for many years?

    Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray sees Apple's full-fledged television set retailing between $1,500 and $2,000, with screen sizes between 42 inches and 55 inches. 

    What a bunch of crap.

    I too can smoke some questionable substance and make up wild stories, where's my headline?  :#
    lmagooDeelronnetmage
  • Reply 2 of 17
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,318member
    Well at least we already know what the reaction to any sales pitch by Apple will be on sites like AI, 9TO5Mac, MacRumors, etc. It is 100% predictable and written in stone that Apple centric website reaction will be negative and derogatory, depressing and disappointing, gloomy and lethargic. After all curved screens, iris scanners, useless features are the rage for the innovation crowd. Who cares if the battery lasts longer if it doesn’t have a curved screen, right?
    igorsky
  • Reply 3 of 17
    lmagoolmagoo Posts: 49member
    "Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray sees Apple's full-fledged television set retailing between $1,500 and $2,000, with screen sizes between 42 inches and 55 inches. " Say What??? Their Computers cost more than that...and I would guess if it is state of the art and they make at least a 75" set it would be 3-4X that much! Sony is coming out with a 75" set that will retail for $9K!!!
  • Reply 4 of 17
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,698member
    lmagoo said:
    "Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray sees Apple's full-fledged television set retailing between $1,500 and $2,000, with screen sizes between 42 inches and 55 inches. " Say What??? Their Computers cost more than that...and I would guess if it is state of the art and they make at least a 75" set it would be 3-4X that much! Sony is coming out with a 75" set that will retail for $9K!!!
    He was saying that back in 2012-13 I think.

    That's why most people on this site are quite skeptical towards anything that any analysts say or claim.

    They've been spouting their BS for many years now, and we have to read it, time and time again.
    JanNL
  • Reply 5 of 17
    Still using my 5S sans case. I'll be motivated to upgrade when it breaks.
    baconstang
  • Reply 6 of 17
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,980member
    If they make iPhone 7 look completely different, then they may have a chance, but too bad, iPhone 7 will look mostly the same as 6/6s. So, those users who care about the look beside internal upgrades ain't upgrade. I'll stick with my 6+ for another year. 
    It's so easy for Apple to update the chassis to make it look different from previous generations like making a matching color with screen bezels for the top and bottom back sections wrapped by antenna bands (like in iPhone 5 but in metal instead of glass). They just decided not to. 

    edited August 2016
  • Reply 7 of 17
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,449member
    I'm not sure why he thinks someone hanging onto a 2 year old 4" or smaller iPhone is going to be interested in a phone without a headphone jack, whether interested in a larger screen or not.
    edited August 2016 baconstang
  • Reply 8 of 17
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,492member
    Still using my 5S sans case. I'll be motivated to upgrade when it breaks.
    Concur. Fairly, I am seeing some battery degredation, but it suits my needs fine. YMMV.
    baconstang
  • Reply 9 of 17
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    fallenjt said:
    If they make iPhone 7 look completely different, then they may have a chance, but too bad, iPhone 7 will look mostly the same as 6/6s. So, those users who care about the look beside internal upgrades ain't upgrade. I'll stick with my 6+ for another year. 
    It's so easy for Apple to update the chassis to make it look different from previous generations like making a matching color with screen bezels for the top and bottom back sections wrapped by antenna bands (like in iPhone 5 but in metal instead of glass). They just decided not to. 

    yes, that's because -- as they've stated many times -- they don't do change for change's sake. if that means you can't find personal fulfillment in your tool looking similar to another, oh well. 
    baconstangchianetmage
  • Reply 10 of 17
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    mac_128 said:
    I'm not sure why he thinks someone hanging onto a 2 year old 4" or smaller iPhone is going to be interested in a phone without a headphone jack, whether interested in a larger screen or not.
    why would a person using an old phone care about headphone jacks? that person is surely going to use whatever headphones come in the box.

    techies care more about what Apple does than its actual customer base. 
    netmagebrucemc
  • Reply 11 of 17
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 1,142member

    Still using my 5S sans case. I'll be motivated to upgrade when it breaks.
    Other than de-linting the lightening port ever now and then it's just a prefect phone that is smart.
    baconstangking editor the grate
  • Reply 12 of 17
    misamisa Posts: 827member
    fallenjt said:
    If they make iPhone 7 look completely different, then they may have a chance, but too bad, iPhone 7 will look mostly the same as 6/6s. So, those users who care about the look beside internal upgrades ain't upgrade. I'll stick with my 6+ for another year. 
    It's so easy for Apple to update the chassis to make it look different from previous generations like making a matching color with screen bezels for the top and bottom back sections wrapped by antenna bands (like in iPhone 5 but in metal instead of glass). They just decided not to. 

    Has that ever stopped people from leasing a new car every 3 years?

    Hell the depreciation on a car makes it pretty stupid to ever own a new car, just lease a new one every 2-3 years perpetually. Ooops out of a job? Now you have no car at all. Better spend $2000 on an old one and run it into the ground.
    baconstang
  • Reply 13 of 17
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,980member
    misa said:
    fallenjt said:
    If they make iPhone 7 look completely different, then they may have a chance, but too bad, iPhone 7 will look mostly the same as 6/6s. So, those users who care about the look beside internal upgrades ain't upgrade. I'll stick with my 6+ for another year. 
    It's so easy for Apple to update the chassis to make it look different from previous generations like making a matching color with screen bezels for the top and bottom back sections wrapped by antenna bands (like in iPhone 5 but in metal instead of glass). They just decided not to. 

    Has that ever stopped people from leasing a new car every 3 years?

    Hell the depreciation on a car makes it pretty stupid to ever own a new car, just lease a new one every 2-3 years perpetually. Ooops out of a job? Now you have no car at all. Better spend $2000 on an old one and run it into the ground.
    Phones aren't cars. 
    edited August 2016
  • Reply 14 of 17
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,980member
    fallenjt said:
    If they make iPhone 7 look completely different, then they may have a chance, but too bad, iPhone 7 will look mostly the same as 6/6s. So, those users who care about the look beside internal upgrades ain't upgrade. I'll stick with my 6+ for another year. 
    It's so easy for Apple to update the chassis to make it look different from previous generations like making a matching color with screen bezels for the top and bottom back sections wrapped by antenna bands (like in iPhone 5 but in metal instead of glass). They just decided not to. 

    yes, that's because -- as they've stated many times -- they don't do change for change's sake. if that means you can't find personal fulfillment in your tool looking similar to another, oh well. 
    Then why Rose Gold 6s outsold other colors if it's not about the look? 
  • Reply 15 of 17
    seafoxseafox Posts: 86member
    Munster estimates that among the current iPhone install base, some 275 million users are on devices more than two years old. Those are potential customers using handsets with screen sizes of 4 inches and smaller, who could be key customers to entice into upgrading to a larger display.

    Wasn't the whole point of the iPhoneSE to get these people with pre-iPhone 6's to upgrade? If those people haven't upgraded to a larger phone yet, it's likely because they just don't want one that's that size.

    Not to mention the iPhoneSE definitely still has a headphone jack.
    edited August 2016 netmage
  • Reply 16 of 17
    badmonkbadmonk Posts: 833member
    sog35 said:
    I wish Apple made a 4 inch iPhone7

    I know there are alot of people who are on the 5/5s but think the 4.7 screen is too big.
    but as you said yourself sog, a headless and chinless 4.7 inch with integrated-speaker-touchIDhomebutton is probably ideal.

    i think Apple knows it's end game.  with major redesign next year everyone will forget about 4" phones.
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