KGI: iPhone 7 won't sell as well as the iPhone 6s

Posted:
in iPhone edited September 2016
Contrary to remarks by carriers, one analyst firm is increasing how many iPhone 7 family devices that it thinks Apple will sell before the end of the year, but still expects fewer sales than the iPhone 6s garnered in 2015.




According to research provided to AppleInsider by KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus.

However, the analyst firm believes artificial scarcity explains carrier reports of sell-outs and strong consumer demand, with both factors "not entirely due to market demand." KGI points to market share gains from carriers due to promotions inflating numbers, as well as a larger amount of launch countries spreading out stocks leading to depleted inventories world-wide.

Kuo points to low yields on the jet black casing, between 60 and 70 percent, as another reason for low stock of the desired iPhone 7 Plus. KGI is suggesting investors take profit now on near-term stock highs.

On Sept. 20, multiple South Korean analysts had a different viewpoint. In a combined report, Song Eun-jeong from Hi Investment & Securities believed that Apple can seize the top position in the premium smartphone market on the strength of the carrier promotions that KGI derided.

In the same report, IBK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Seung-woo revealed that South Korean suppliers had orders for components to build 80 to 85 million iPhone 7 units pre-launch, with an increase of 17 percent to 25 percent recently, pushing quantities over 100 million phones before the end of the year.

T-Mobile Chief Executive John Legere declared demand for the iPhone 7 a "phenomenon," and said that preorders up to Sept. 12 had been "like four times bigger than the iPhone 6."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 80
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • Reply 2 of 80
    safi said:
    The desire for constant growth needs to stop. Let Apple work out what it has to do and stop this ridiculous grow grow grow culture. Yes, I believe it probably won't sell as well as the 6S but this is a sign of strength for Apple. Rather than coming out with another gimmick design to boost sales, the company puts in thought and effort and withholds new products until they are perfect! Which other company does this? For fucks sake, leave Apple alone. I wish it would just become a private company and ditch these greedy leaches AKA shareholders. Cook/Ive are probably running the company long-term and not for these greedy leeches. 
    What possibly makes you think it would be different if Apple were a privately held company? Where do you expect the $600 billion or more is going to come from to take them private? And you somehow think the whoever comes up with that will settle for smaller returns than Apple currently produces? Those "greedy leeches" you so easily criticize are the ones who own this company. People like you do not. If you don;tlie the direction your beloved Apple is taking then acquire a stake and speak out and marshal other owners to your side. You also make the classic mistake of focusing on the short term and analysts limited time span projections. Those pronouncements have some relevancy to the short term investor and traders. They have little relevancy to investors and those betting on the longer term future except where they may indicate longer term trends. I'll sum it up for you - You don't really understand investment versus short term and you should probably stick to tech and leave finance and securities alone. Additionally, you are not an owner of Apple and have no say. You do have an opinion and are entitled to that, but as the saying goes about assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.
    williamhai46dasanman69
  • Reply 3 of 80
    No one will buy the 6s, it's too similar to the 6. No one will buy the 7, it's too similar to the 6s. And yet the most accurate sales guidance has always been from Apple's quarterly meetings... funny that.
    ronnmacseekerrob53anantksundarambaconstangfotoformatzimmermannjude2012badmonkredgeminipa
  • Reply 4 of 80
    AI can we please start a new feature called analysts scorecard, which tracks in a very simple and easy-to-read way, what each major analyst predicts vs what actually happened. I personally think that would become a hugely popular feature on this site. 

    Heck we we cold even invent a new kind of fantasy football of Apple predictions: pick your dream team of analysts/charlatans. 
    bigbaconstangrich gregorybrian greenjude2012entropysphone-ui-guymathteachermike1pscooter63
  • Reply 5 of 80
    This is close to incoherent....
    The number they were floating initially was 80-100M...
    the 6s sold 80M I think and 78M for the 6, mostly because the China sales were displaced to after the new years.
    The numbers will likely be close to 6s, maybe slightly higher with a much higher ASP (128G 7+ being in such demand).

    bigbaconstangai46
  • Reply 6 of 80
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,979member
    Kuo, I give yiu some credits for predicting iPhone leaks and shit. But about financial performance, you are just a regular dude I meet at Safeway grocery market.
    biganantksundaramstompyrevenantredgeminipanolamacguytycho24TurboPGTpscooter63ai46
  • Reply 7 of 80
    SoliSoli Posts: 9,176member
    I'm expecting the last fiscal quarter for 2016 to be the highest unit sales for a closing quarter for iPhones.
    ai46palomine
  • Reply 8 of 80
    Let me just throw my 2 cents in. I just got my iPhone 7 Plus last night. I am upgrading from an iPhone 6. While I am very happy with my new phone, I upgraded mainly because I wanted a larger phone. If I had the iPhone 6 Plus, I would not have upgraded. The new features are wonderful, but they're not enough to make me have wanted to upgrade if I already had a Plus. My phone cost almost as much as my MacBook Air did, and so I will be more hesitant to upgrade in the future. Unless next year's phone blows me away, I will keep this phone for at least 3 years, possibly even longer.
    bigdanny602brian green
  • Reply 9 of 80
    sog35 said:
    ...Stick to supply chain rumors and leave unit estimates to Apple. 

    You are already 10,000,000 units wrong 
    Exactly. He has moles in the supply chain and has made calls related to that, but to pretend he has some sort of detailed knowledge of sales is just plain dishonest.
    He is a secretive guy, rarely gives interviews and talks behind doors it seems. We now know that he hates being wrong.
    bigtycho24
  • Reply 10 of 80
    tommikele said:
    safi said:
    The desire for constant growth needs to stop. Let Apple work out what it has to do and stop this ridiculous grow grow grow culture. Yes, I believe it probably won't sell as well as the 6S but this is a sign of strength for Apple. Rather than coming out with another gimmick design to boost sales, the company puts in thought and effort and withholds new products until they are perfect! Which other company does this? For fucks sake, leave Apple alone. I wish it would just become a private company and ditch these greedy leaches AKA shareholders. Cook/Ive are probably running the company long-term and not for these greedy leeches. 
    What possibly makes you think it would be different if Apple were a privately held company? Where do you expect the $600 billion or more is going to come from to take them private? And you somehow think the whoever comes up with that will settle for smaller returns than Apple currently produces? Those "greedy leeches" you so easily criticize are the ones who own this company. People like you do not. If you don;tlie the direction your beloved Apple is taking then acquire a stake and speak out and marshal other owners to your side. You also make the classic mistake of focusing on the short term and analysts limited time span projections. Those pronouncements have some relevancy to the short term investor and traders. They have little relevancy to investors and those betting on the longer term future except where they may indicate longer term trends. I'll sum it up for you - You don't really understand investment versus short term and you should probably stick to tech and leave finance and securities alone. Additionally, you are not an owner of Apple and have no say. You do have an opinion and are entitled to that, but as the saying goes about assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.
    You know what you could have educated the guy without insulting him. As you seem to know what you are talking about. Fail. 
    bigbrian greenslprescott
  • Reply 11 of 80
    Well Even if the 7 does not sell as well as the 6s or 6 but if you add up the the 7 + the 6s + the 5se sells for this holiday season, they will add up to a lot of phones.

    baconstangbigbadmonkjbdragon
  • Reply 12 of 80
    sog35 said:
    So iPhone7 will sell 10 million more units then he expected because Note7 problems? The Note7 only sold 1.5 million units at launch. And you SERIOUSLY think 10 million Note7 customers will buy iPhone7 instead?

    Nah. I think your critical reading skills were a little off here.

    The exact quote is "the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus. "

    Key points:

    Escalated sales estimates..... mostly because of.....recall.....and the dual camera.

    You arbitrarily try to say that the 1.5 million Note 7s sold and recalled don't add up to the additional estimated 10 million sales for iPhone; and therefore it's bullshit. Well, yes and no. Here's why.

    In one sense, obviously not all 1.5 million ppl who bought Note 7s are instead buying the iPhone 7 because of the recall (Samsung actually said 90% of customers who comply with the recall stick with the free replacement Note 7.) Still, that other 10% doesn't account for the extra 10 million iPhone sales. Duh. So this leads to the next point.

    In another sense, the Note 7 had been released for like what, 2 weeks, before the issues were reported and later the recall was announced? How many more people would've bought the Note 7 if they weren't exploding and being recalled? Once the reports went mainstream, then the international news about the explosions, then national and international recalls, warnings from the FCC, airlines, US government, foreign governments...... you could argue that this deterred potential future buyers of the Note 7.

    A third point is the aforementioned dual camera. Other phones have dual cameras, sure. But iPhone is by far more popular and revered by the general public as a "gold standard"; whether or not you agree the historic sales say they are the most popular. HTC One M8, LG G5, Huawei P9 have dual cameras but do not sell like the iPhone and the vast majority of people outside the tech world don't know they exist. "Everyone" knows the iPhone brand. So that brings in more iPhone buyers interested because of the "new" dual lens camera.

    So to recap:

    1) People switching away from their Note 7 due to the recall

    2) Potential future Note 7 buyers deterred from buying it because of the recall

    3) Dual lens camera attracting people away from Note 7 that doesn't have it

    4) "Mostly because of". The report says mostly. Keyword mostly. What is mostly, it's 51% or more. Could be 95% or could be 51% of the reason for increased estimates. They didn't specify. So there are obviously more factors that weren't mentioned that are attributable to the increase in estimates.

    You can't just say "So instead of admiting you were fuking wrong, you make an excuse that iPhone7 is selling well because of Note7 failure."

    Well yes. But also not in the way you expressed it; that's not quite what he or the report said. That's not well thought out nor does it include the nuances in what was actually written. I think you're mad and seeing red; I've done that too sometimes. It's hard to admit, I know. It sucks. 

    edited September 2016 bigbrian greenwilliamhnhughes
  • Reply 13 of 80
    Just to say I love Apple's stock.  These little monthly bumps and dips don't worry me.  It's a part of life.  The best thing one can do is buy Apple stock and just visit once a year.  Upon retirement age when one needs money, then one can sell Apple stock as needed.

    For me, just watch the ride.  At the earliest, it will be around the year 2030 when I'll sell some of the stock I own.  Even then, I might convert it.  I don't agree with the management of Apple regarding certain issues but because of the simplicity of the Mac and iOS devices, my heart is with Apple.
    brian greenbadmonk
  • Reply 14 of 80

    T-Mobile Chief Executive John Legere declared demand for the iPhone 7 a "phenomenon," and said that preorders up to Sept. 12 had been "like four times bigger than the iPhone 6."
    In addition, the CEO of Sprint said that demand for the 7 is "5x" that of iPhone 6. 

    I think AI should tell us a bit more about the process by which Kuo arrived at his estimate of demand, more than just "Kuo thinks..."  Until then, I'll assume that it is utter bullshit. 
    edited September 2016 Solibrian greencoolfactorTurboPGT
  • Reply 15 of 80
    It was a calculated risk. Take more time to deliver a great all new phone and face this backlash, or rush out a new design for the sake of appearances.
    They chose to deliver a refined iPhone 6 and take the heat. For that I give major props to Cook. He has balls. 
    edited September 2016 badmonk
  • Reply 16 of 80
    I compared the camera quality between 7 and 6s  (not Plus series) and have found that 6S is far much better with selfie. I mean way much better. iPhone 7 is actually a step backward in camera quality. I found image quality to be worse on 7. Consumer Reports said that they couldn't find improvements over 6S... but I can say that from my examination of both devices that 7 is significantly worse. 

    The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural. 

    Definitely not recommending 7 to anyone... I'd just tell them to get 6s. 


    macplusplus
  • Reply 17 of 80
    artificial scarcity- as in Apple did it on purpose to make it seem like it sold out fast? 

    I know diamonds have an artificial scarcity- I doubt apple is doing that.
    nolamacguynetmageai46watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 80
    SoliSoli Posts: 9,176member
    netrox said:
    The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural. 
    You know that the Home Button no longer moves, right? It can't be pressed and the sensation you feel is from the haptic motor.
    badmonkai46
  • Reply 19 of 80
    I've got a lousy hunch Apple is going to under-perform all other tech stocks as far as share gains again in 2016, including Microsoft. All of Apple's value seems to hang upon how many iPhones can be sold and this year isn't going to cut it. Why can't Apple manage to diversify like other tech companies? It's almost certain Apple isn't going to make any major acquisitions and it will probably need to in order to boost the value of the company. I'm not blaming Apple for not being able to sell more iPhones because I know the smartphone market is mostly saturated. I just don't understand why they didn't start a cloud computing business like all the other tech companies did. Wall Street seems to think that every company with cloud services is going to do well and that leaves Apple out in the cold. It's just that the other tech companies make gains so easily while Apple struggles just to gain a $1 in a week. It seems so odd how Apple always comes out on the bottom as far as the big investors are concerned. Apple should at least try to do something to attract investors other than trying to sell more iPhones. Of all the major tech companies only Apple can't lose the doom and gloom surrounding the company. There has to be a reason for that.
  • Reply 20 of 80
    SoliSoli Posts: 9,176member
    Why can't Apple manage to diversify like other tech companies?
    If people paid attention they'd see that Apple is highly diversified.
    JanNLnolamacguynetmageai46palominetycho24
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