Apple predicted to post best holiday quarter revenue ever on strong iPhone 7 sales

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
Apple could beat its quarterly record for revenue set at this time last year, on the strength of the iPhone, increased Mac sales, and services, one analyst believes. But that growth could also be at the cost of 2017 expansion and a soft "iPhone 8" demand.




Brean Capital analyst Ananda Baruah believes Apple is looking at a quarter where earnings will exceed $76 billion, topping the record set in Apple's first fiscal quarter in 2016. He also expects to see a slight increase in revenue gleaned from Mac sales in 2016 versus the year-ago quarter, with a continued drop in iPad sales, but offset by the release of the Apple Watch in September.

Baruah points to the increase of iPhone 7 Plus versus the iPhone 7 sales versus the same comparison to the iPhone 6s family as a reason Apple's revenue will skew higher than expected. Brean Capital also believes that iPhone sales will hit 78 million on the quarter, a bit higher than estimates from other analyst firms.

The firm believes that the growth will come at the expense of the next quarter. While the analysts previously believed that the second fiscal quarter of 2017 for Apple will see about 56 million iPhones sold, it now believes that there will be closer to 53 million because of weaknesses in the Chinese market.




Overall, Baruah sees metrics in every regard but iPad sales bettering that of the year-ago quarter, with revenue up about $8 billion, and profit up about 3 billion every quarter versus 2016.

While the firm is looking forward to the "iPhone 8," it points to a "lack of model clarity" and "lack of super-compelling new features" -- the same as most analysts did with the iPhone 7 -- for what it sees to be a muted demand for the new iPhone range in the fall of 2017.

A pair of purported Apple manufacturing documents leaked to the web on Tuesday suggests that 2017 will see Apple bring three iPhone models to market, including a completely redesigned high-end variant codenamed "Ferrari."

A three-model lineup corresponds with earlier rumors that Apple intends to launch two upgraded iPhone 7 models, likely branded "iPhone 7s" and "iPhone 7s Plus," alongside a high-end version stuffed with exotic technologies. This top-tier model, expected to boast a glass sandwich design, borderless OLED display, "invisible" home button, wireless charging and more is the alleged "Ferrari," according to the latest leaks.

Supply chain rumors continue to differ on a spring iPad refresh, with new units with an "A10X" processor possible in 9.7, 10.5, and 12.9-inch sizes, and the ultimate fate or upgrade specs of the iPad mini unknown.
idaho43
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 45
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 4,576member
    So are we setting the bar really high so they can fail at it and tank the stock price?

    I can't speak for iPhone sales, but I do see a lot of empty iPad cages in the stores around me so I would think Apple did quite well with iPad sales this holiday season. Not that my crappy region is the gold standard of sales...just going by what I see around me. 

    Not sure why some keep relying on supply chain for sales, refreshes, etc. 
    edited December 2016 calialbegarc
  • Reply 2 of 45
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,381member
    Apple could beat its quarterly record for revenue set at this time last year, on the strength of the iPhone, increased Mac sales, and services, one analyst believes. But that growth could also be at the cost of 2017 expansion and a soft “iPhone 8” demand.
    Perpetually doomed! Gimme a break. First analysts predicted the iPhone 7 would flop because it wasn’t much different than the iPhone 6. It would also flop because of the headphone jack being removed, a prediction confirmed by the chronically bitching haters right here on AI. Okay, so fast forward and the iPhone 7 could produce the best ever holiday revenue, leaving analysts and AI based haters with massive amounts of egg on their faces. What is their reaction? Why to predict all this success will kill sales of the iPhone 8 of course. See what I mean by “perpetually doomed”? Apple can’t win... EVER.
    califotoformatalbegarcmuppetryiphonenickbrucemcRayz2016gilly017watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 45
    tgr1tgr1 Posts: 33member
    iPhone 8 will be the 10th anniversary phone. I seriously doubt 1) Apple won't do something special with it and 2) it will sell poorly.
    caligilly017
  • Reply 4 of 45
    Quote:
    While the firm is looking forward to the "iPhone 8," it points to a "lack of model clarity"

    So they want Apple to tell them and only them the exact spec of a device that won't be on sale for 9 months?

    Who are the Bozos? Do they work for Samsung?




    fotoformatpscooter63brucemcStrangeDayscaligilly017watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 45
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,283member
    Why are we talking about the iPhone 8 series for 2017, not the 7S series?
    heliosheathnik21
  • Reply 6 of 45
    Huh? I thought so.

    "Best in class" MacBook, Apple enjoys ~98% of Market Share of laptops over $1,000.

    "Best in class" MacBook Pro

    "Best in class" Apple Watch...within 8 months of it's debut, it was second to only Rolex as far a income generation.

    "Best in class" desktops.

    "Best in class" OS.

    "Best in class" iOS. Just ask MS, RIM, Nokia, etc., etc.

    "Best in class" mobile phone....ask Samsung! :)

    "Best in class" Free software included w/ every device.

    Most popular camera in the world.

    Most popular video camera in the world (I think that's right?).

    Best Music SW. iTunes.

    Best TV interface. AppleTV.

    Best Stores: Apple Store generate more sales $'s per sq/ft than Tiffany's.

    Highest Customer Sat., in the ~90%+

    Best.




    edited December 2016 StrangeDayscaliuraharasingularitywatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 45
    Those putzes are saying this after everyone called the iPhone 7 one of the most boring smartphones Apple has ever made. I've seen a fair number of rants on how the iPhone 7 is worse than Android smartphones at half the price. The buzz had been how consumers refuse to buy any Apple product which lacks innovation. /s

    What really puzzles me is how Apple continues to open new retail stores around the world despite the claim that "almost no one" is buying Apple products. Does that sort of strategy make any sense at all for a company? I would think Apple executives would realize it would be pointless to do if there was no demand for new stores. I do remember at one point there were Starbucks stores on almost every corner and Wall Street had claimed Starbucks stores weren't doing enough business to warrant the number of stores. Is this the case with Apple?

    Whatever it is, Apple must be doing something wrong. I still believe investors are shunning Apple to put their money into the FANG stocks and even worse, Microsoft. Investors believe they can get more bang for their buck in almost any other tech company than they can from Apple. All I know is that it's a very frustrating situation for Apple shareholders having to watch every other major tech stock make gains while Apple stock makes almost no gains at all.  The internet hate for Apple products continues without end.  I would almost think Apple products are ruining people's lives they way they're scorned.  It's just a company selling hardware and no one is even being forced to buy their products.  No one is being injured or killed from Apple products.  If that's the case, Smith and Wesson is making far more gains this year than Apple is and people aren't constantly complaining about S&W products or the company for selling consumer weapons.  I'll never understand all the hate against Apple.  That's almost like hating Casio for making watches.
    edited December 2016 StrangeDayslkruppcaligilly017watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 45
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,902member
    sog35 said:
    Another stupid shit Wall street shit head.

    The same shit heads that said the iPhone7 would flop
    Same shit heads that said the Air pods would flop

    Now that both are selling like hot cakes they change the narrative and say the iPhone8 will flop

    Tim Cook seriously needs to send some 'security professionals' to visit these shit heads
    In another news today, manipulation starts now:
    http://marketrealist.com/2016/12/apple-scaling-back-iphone-7-orders/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed
  • Reply 9 of 45
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,902member

    sog35 said:
    Soli said:
    Why are we talking about the iPhone 8 series for 2017, not the 7S series?
    Apple will make both

    7s - $650
    7s Plus - $769

    iPhone X - $850
    And that $850 so called Ferrari better start with 64GB+. Ferrari doesn't have the same fuel tank as Honda Civic
    mwhite
  • Reply 10 of 45
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,548member
    Apple can't win with these analyst morons. A record breaking qtr spells doom for future quarters. A "typical" Apple qtr spells doom for Apple now. 

    Analyst are analysts for a reason: they failed to run their own businesses. 
    lkruppcaligilly017watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 45
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,017member
    It's strange that 10 months put, we would see predictions as to how a line would do. Strange, at best.
  • Reply 12 of 45
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 518member
    hahaha...
    they said weak Iphone 7 demand bc everyone was holding out for the 8....now it's reversed.

    weak demand when no one knows the features...!!!
    that's like saying there's weak demand for winter coats in the summer


    caliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 45
    fallenjt said:
    This seems to happen at this time of year every year. IF (and that is a big IF) Apple are reducing orders they will be for March Delivery onwards. Sorta makes sense that 6 months after release the volume of sales will drop when compared to the launch period.

    Move along there, nothing to see.

    The People who talk out of their backside need to generate stories to get hits on their sites in order to get Ad revenue.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 45
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,381member
    sog35 said:
    Another stupid shit Wall street shit head.

    The same shit heads that said the iPhone7 would flop
    Same shit heads that said the Air pods would flop

    Now that both are selling like hot cakes they change the narrative and say the iPhone8 will flop

    Tim Cook seriously needs to send some 'security professionals' to visit these shit heads
    Fake Steve Jobs had Moshe and Katie when he needed to “wack” somebody. Who does Cook have?
    edited December 2016
  • Reply 15 of 45
    Huh? I thought so.

    "Best in class" MacBook, Apple enjoys ~98% of Market Share of laptops over $1,000.

    "Best in class" MacBook Pro

    "Best in class" Apple Watch...within 8 months of it's debut, it was second to only Rolex as far a income generation.

    "Best in class" desktops.

    "Best in class" OS.

    "Best in class" iOS. Just ask MS, RIM, Nokia, etc., etc.

    "Best in class" mobile phone....ask Samsung! :)

    "Best in class" Free software included w/ every device.

    Most popular camera in the world.

    Most popular video camera in the world (I think that's right?).

    Best Music SW. iTunes.

    Best TV interface. AppleTV.

    Best Stores: Apple Store generate more sales $'s per sq/ft than Tiffany's.

    Highest Customer Sat., in the ~90%+

    Best.




    Best in class desktops?   Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.   are you being sarcastic, because that's a good one?  Ha ha ha 
  • Reply 16 of 45
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 4,160member
    altivec88 said:
    Huh? I thought so.

    "Best in class" MacBook, Apple enjoys ~98% of Market Share of laptops over $1,000.

    "Best in class" MacBook Pro

    "Best in class" Apple Watch...within 8 months of it's debut, it was second to only Rolex as far a income generation.

    "Best in class" desktops.

    "Best in class" OS.

    "Best in class" iOS. Just ask MS, RIM, Nokia, etc., etc.

    "Best in class" mobile phone....ask Samsung!

    "Best in class" Free software included w/ every device.

    Most popular camera in the world.

    Most popular video camera in the world (I think that's right?).

    Best Music SW. iTunes.

    Best TV interface. AppleTV.

    Best Stores: Apple Store generate more sales $'s per sq/ft than Tiffany's.

    Highest Customer Sat., in the ~90%+

    Best.




    Best in class desktops?   Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.   are you being sarcastic, because that's a good one?  Ha ha ha 
    It's entirely possible that you're not in Apple's target market. 

    You might have have been at one point, but then you got set in your ways, and now you're not. 
    edited December 2016 cali
  • Reply 17 of 45
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,283member
    sog35 said:
    Soli said:
    Why are we talking about the iPhone 8 series for 2017, not the 7S series?
    Apple will make both

    7s - $650
    7s Plus - $769

    iPhone X - $850
    I love¡ how you make absolute statements without any evidence to back up your claims.
    calisingularity
  • Reply 18 of 45
    altivec88 said:
    Huh? I thought so.

    "Best in class" MacBook, Apple enjoys ~98% of Market Share of laptops over $1,000.

    "Best in class" MacBook Pro

    "Best in class" Apple Watch...within 8 months of it's debut, it was second to only Rolex as far a income generation.

    "Best in class" desktops.

    "Best in class" OS.

    "Best in class" iOS. Just ask MS, RIM, Nokia, etc., etc.

    "Best in class" mobile phone....ask Samsung! :)

    "Best in class" Free software included w/ every device.

    Most popular camera in the world.

    Most popular video camera in the world (I think that's right?).

    Best Music SW. iTunes.

    Best TV interface. AppleTV.

    Best Stores: Apple Store generate more sales $'s per sq/ft than Tiffany's.

    Highest Customer Sat., in the ~90%+

    Best.




    Best in class desktops?   Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.   are you being sarcastic, because that's a good one?  Ha ha ha 
    Nope. I'd have no other -- Macs lave the longest useful lifespan and lowest TCO. My main desktop for software dev is a 2011 iMac. Read that again: a five/six-year old mac. Drives a second 27" monitor and runs my VMs, databases and IDEs no problem.

    Which is how I know all the whining from rumor sites is just kavitching, because even a three-year-old Mac Pro would scream compared to this. Most people are *not* video editors driving multiple monitors and rendering stuff at the same time. For whatever reason the Apple haters want to pounce on the update delays as more "proof" of their agenda, despite what actual people are actually doing. Same as it ever was.
    brucemccaliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 45
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,434member
    A few other points to consider as well:
    - Record high revenue despite the USD being at its strongest point in about 14-15 years (which makes Apple products much more expensive in other markets, and dampens demand somewhat).
    - Apple continues to build its installed base.  I think it was Above Avalon that did some calculations to show that Apple grew its iPhone user base over 100M subs in FY 2016.  And no doubt that continues until today.  It is that growth of the installed base, driven by great products, which is allowing Apple to grow their services revenue so much.  And most of those new users will upgrade in the future.
    - The AirPods are surprising on the upside with more units being sold than estimated I would say.

    iPads probably will shrink with no new updates, but at the same time as the installed base gets older, there will be more natural upgrades.  My wife's needed replacement (4 year old with broken screen), so I went with the iPad Air 2 (she doesn't need the features of the 9.7" Pro).  Similarly, I bought one for my mother on her 80th birthday - first computer product she has ever had.  Point here is that even without updates, I needed to buy two new iPads as gifts, and while I would rather have had an "iPad Air 3", the $399 iPad Air 2 was what got the orders (what else would I buy them that works as well? - they are very fast all of the required tasks).
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 45
    Rayz2016 said:
    altivec88 said:
    Huh? I thought so.

    "Best in class" MacBook, Apple enjoys ~98% of Market Share of laptops over $1,000.

    "Best in class" MacBook Pro

    "Best in class" Apple Watch...within 8 months of it's debut, it was second to only Rolex as far a income generation.

    "Best in class" desktops.

    "Best in class" OS.

    "Best in class" iOS. Just ask MS, RIM, Nokia, etc., etc.

    "Best in class" mobile phone....ask Samsung!

    "Best in class" Free software included w/ every device.

    Most popular camera in the world.

    Most popular video camera in the world (I think that's right?).

    Best Music SW. iTunes.

    Best TV interface. AppleTV.

    Best Stores: Apple Store generate more sales $'s per sq/ft than Tiffany's.

    Highest Customer Sat., in the ~90%+

    Best.




    Best in class desktops?   Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.   are you being sarcastic, because that's a good one?  Ha ha ha 
    It's entirely possible that you're not in Apple's target market. 

    You might have have been at one point, but then you got set in your ways, and now you're not. 
    Thanks. :)
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