iPhone X preorders could top 50 million, but TrueDepth camera is bottleneck for Apple

Posted:
in iPhone edited September 2017
The premium-priced iPhone X is on track to be a colossal success for Apple, but whether or not the company can overcome production issues to satisfy consumer demand remains a major question mark ahead of its November launch.




Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities said on Monday he believes that preorder demand for the iPhone X could top 50 million units. He noted that it is the first completely revamped form factor for the iPhone since the iPhone 6 debuted in 2014 -- an update that generated a so-called "super cycle" for purchases, upgrades and switchers.

In particular, Kuo said he is convinced that the new Face ID login feature will be a major selling point, as no one else on the market offers such a seamless and reliable experience.

But that selling point is also a bottleneck for Apple in terms of iPhone X production, Kuo claims.





"The 3D sensing (TrueDepth camera) on iPhone X is composed of a structured-light system, time-of-flight system and a front-facing camera, which represents a far more complex structure than those of rivals," Kuo said. "It will therefore be harder to achieve mass production."

Kuo believes that Apple will ramp up output of the iPhone X in late October, ahead of an early November launch. But he doesn't think that supply will begin to catch up with demand until some point in the first half of calendar year 2018.

Preorders for the all-new iPhone X begin Oct. 27, while the device arrives on Nov. 3. In addition to its facial recognition camera, it features an edge-to-edge OLED display, wireless charging, and dual rear cameras.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 17
    spsheridanspsheridan Posts: 1unconfirmed, member
    "He noted that it is the first completely revamped form factor for the iPhone since the iPhone 6 debuted in 2016 ..."
    I don't think the iPhone 6 debuted in 2016.  I think it was Sept. 2014.
    albegarcwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 17
    What would be really popular is the iPhone 8 with a Samsung S8/Plus style OLED screen retaining Touch ID. 

    That would help massively with the shortage of the X, i’d expect most people like myself are getting the X for the screen and not the face ID.
    78Bandit
  • Reply 3 of 17
    The iPhone 6 came out in 2014. Some fact checking might add to your credibility.
  • Reply 4 of 17
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,306member
    Obviously a flop!  /s
    BebealbegarcrepressthisSpamSandwichwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 17
    How many iPhone 7/iPhone 7+ units were preordered in 2016? How does 50 million compare to prior years?
    gregg thurmanalbegarcrepressthiswatto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 17
    MacPro said:
    Obviously a flop!  /s
    Even iPhone 8/+ is. I had showed up at KS local Apple store both on Saturday and Sunday and was told that:
    1). Waiting time is 25-30 minutes to buy anything with the exception of accessories. (the place was quite crowded)
    2). They already sold out all models of iPhone8 space grey 64GB (unlocked or carrier locked option).

    When I tried my luck at the local ATT store, I was told that they are out of space grey 64GB models, and the backlog is about 2 weeks.
    :#
    edited September 2017 albegarcstanthemanwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 17
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,095moderator
    thehecta said:
    How many iPhone 7/iPhone 7+ units were preordered in 2016? How does 50 million compare to prior years?
    Apple stopped reporting pre-orders two years ago.  Last year, when they didn’t report the numbers, they made a statement about how those numbers and opening weekend sales numbers are meaningless as they are always supply constrained in the weeks after a launch.  Makes sense, as there’s only so much manufacturing volume it makes sense to build out, which would be closer to longer-term steady state demand versus any initial surge in demand.
    pscooter63SpamSandwichwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 17
    thehecta said:
    How many iPhone 7/iPhone 7+ units were preordered in 2016? How does 50 million compare to prior years?
    Apple stopped reporting pre-orders two years ago.  Last year, when they didn’t report the numbers, they made a statement about how those numbers and opening weekend sales numbers are meaningless as they are always supply constrained in the weeks after a launch.  Makes sense, as there’s only so much manufacturing volume it makes sense to build out, which would be closer to longer-term steady state demand versus any initial surge in demand.
    Okay I understand. But what did the analysts estimate for actual preorders for the 7? Kuo is throwing out this number of 50 million but it means very little when it has nothing to compare to
    gregg thurmanrepressthiswatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 17
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    Another record breaker and no this is the first redesign since the iPhone in 2007. 
    radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 17
    thehecta said:
    How many iPhone 7/iPhone 7+ units were preordered in 2016? How does 50 million compare to prior years?
    Phone 6, 6S and 7 sold about 50 million units in their respective December quarters. However, each had 13 weeks to achieve that number. Because iPhone X doesn’t ship until November 3 it will have but 8 weeks to do the same amount. If there truly is a bottle neck it won’t be sensors, it will be Foxconn. For the last 3 iPhone launches Foxconn produced, on average, about 820,000 iPhones, of all models, per day. Kuo is suggesting that Foxconn is capable of producing 890,000 iPhone Xs ONLY per day, PLUS iPhone SE, iPhone 6S, iPhone 6S Plus AND iPhone 7/7 Plus. Not without a MASSIVE expansion of its production facilities they won’t, and we’ve heard nothing about Foxconn doing that. This is another excellent example of Kuo’ claims not standing up to scrutiny.
    repressthiswatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 17
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,095moderator
    sog35 said:
    thehecta said:
    thehecta said:
    How many iPhone 7/iPhone 7+ units were preordered in 2016? How does 50 million compare to prior years?
    Apple stopped reporting pre-orders two years ago.  Last year, when they didn’t report the numbers, they made a statement about how those numbers and opening weekend sales numbers are meaningless as they are always supply constrained in the weeks after a launch.  Makes sense, as there’s only so much manufacturing volume it makes sense to build out, which would be closer to longer-term steady state demand versus any initial surge in demand.
    Okay I understand. But what did the analysts estimate for actual preorders for the 7? Kuo is throwing out this number of 50 million but it means very little when it has nothing to compare to
    last year Apple sold about 70 million iPhones in the December quarter.  That's the number you should compare the 50 million X units.

    But even that is not a good number to compare to, because its not a guarantee that all preorders will be shipped by the end of Dec.

    So basically Kuo's number means jack shit.
    Apple sold about 75 million iPhones innlast year’s Oct-Dec quarter, across all models on sale at the time worldwide.  As you say, it’s unlikely Apple would be able to ship 50 million iPhone X units in the quarter, but it’s quite possible they’ll ship more than 75 million total iPhones in tne quarter.   That and the ASP will be the Dec quarter numbers to be looking for come the January earnings report. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 17
    i think the 50 million for the first week of orders is believable but it will take awhile for Apple to fulfill that production backlog.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 17
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,312member
    sog35 said:
    This is just another case of Wall Street manipulations.

    Keep your wallet ready guys to buy some AAPL stock.  It could drop to $140-$145 in a couple days/weeks.

    I'm trying to free up some cash in the next couple days to make a buy.  Also trying to free up some cash to buy some Shopify stock if it drops below $105.

    I'm expecting the stock to hit $190 early next year.  
    The timing is important. I think apple will announce weak enough guidance this Q, and probably weaker sales in the Q from 2016. That is the time to not panic. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 17
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,312member
    sog35 said:
    thehecta said:
    thehecta said:
    How many iPhone 7/iPhone 7+ units were preordered in 2016? How does 50 million compare to prior years?
    Apple stopped reporting pre-orders two years ago.  Last year, when they didn’t report the numbers, they made a statement about how those numbers and opening weekend sales numbers are meaningless as they are always supply constrained in the weeks after a launch.  Makes sense, as there’s only so much manufacturing volume it makes sense to build out, which would be closer to longer-term steady state demand versus any initial surge in demand.
    Okay I understand. But what did the analysts estimate for actual preorders for the 7? Kuo is throwing out this number of 50 million but it means very little when it has nothing to compare to
    last year Apple sold about 70 million iPhones in the December quarter.  That's the number you should compare the 50 million X units.

    But even that is not a good number to compare to, because its not a guarantee that all preorders will be shipped by the end of Dec.

    So basically Kuo's number means jack shit.
    Apple sold about 75 million iPhones innlast year’s Oct-Dec quarter, across all models on sale at the time worldwide.  As you say, it’s unlikely Apple would be able to ship 50 million iPhone X units in the quarter, but it’s quite possible they’ll ship more than 75 million total iPhones in tne quarter.   That and the ASP will be the Dec quarter numbers to be looking for come the January earnings report. 
    The 50M pre-orders will include people who would have upgraded to the 8 were that the only available option, hence the sales of the 8 and whatever is available of the X may not reach 75M by end Q1

    That's just a delay though as the sales will be booked in the next Q
    edited September 2017
  • Reply 15 of 17
    The 50 million pre-orders must refer to Apple’s orders to Foxconn and components suppliers for the entire quarter. Possibly longer. Apple will not receive anything like 50 million customer orders for iPhone X prior to launch, particulately at prices of $999 and up.
    edited September 2017
  • Reply 16 of 17
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,312member
    The 50 million pre-orders must refer to Apple’s orders to Foxconn and components suppliers for the entire quarter. Possibly longer. Apple will not receive anything like 50 million customer orders for iPhone X prior to launch, particulately at prices of $999 and up.
    Pretty sure that Kuo means customer preorder when he says:

     believes that preorder demand for the iPhone X could top 50 million units.

    Upgraders in Q1 tend to be the most diehard Apple fans. My guess is over the year the iPhome 8 becomes the dominant model sold. 
    edited September 2017
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