Nikkei pushing iPhone X production cuts as reason Samsung is looking for OLED screen custo...

Posted:
in iPhone edited February 18
A new report suggests that Samsung is "casting about" for OLED panel production, under the premise that it is being caused by soft iPhone X demand and production cuts -- which don't appear to be grounded in reality.




A report on Friday morning by the Nikkei Asian Review continues to claim that production cuts in the iPhone X are causing a cascade effect in the supply chain. Allegedly, as a result of the cuts, which appear to be either false or normal seasonality, this means that Samsung is "saddled with excess production capacity" of OLED substrates and screens.

However, the report also goes on to note that Chinese OLED panel makers have expanded production capacity, and screens from LG Display and BOE Technology on the way. Data from IHS Markit quoted in the article also doesn't suggest that Apple is the prime mover of a contraction in demand -- or a cut in OLED screen orders beyond seasonality.

The new report doesn't provide any more information than a previous report by the publication claiming that the iPhone X was seeing production cuts. That report is also likely wrong, given Apple CEO Tim Cook's remarks about the iPhone X sales since availability.

"We're thrilled to report the biggest quarter in Apple's history, with broad-based growth that included the highest revenue ever from a new iPhone lineup," said Cook during the last quarterly financial report. "iPhone X surpassed our expectations and has been our top-selling iPhone every week since it shipped in November."

Other supply chain sources belie reports of any iPhone X production cut.

The Nikkei Asian Review generally provides accurate information from the supply chain, so in all likelihood, Samsung has excess OLED production because of assorted market factors. However the publication's track record on Apple-specific events, or cause-and-effect from Apple's moves is iffy at best.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    jony0jony0 Posts: 253member

    But … where else could a drop in demand possibly come from ?

    Could it be that in the just finished year …

    • the overall industry drooped 9 percent
    • during quarter four, [Strategy Analytics] characterizes the precipitous decline as the "biggest annual fall in smartphone history."

    Apple tops worldwide smartphone vendor list in Q4 amid industry contraction, report says

    Or could it be that Samsung doesn't have or is not expecting great pre-orders or future sales for its upcoming new release ?
    Nah, gotta be because of Apple and the obvious iPhone X failure.
    There, that was easy. Hey our analysis is now done and we can start our weekend, yippee.
    edited February 18 watto_cobralolliverradarthekatmagman1979cornchiplongpathMacsplosion
  • Reply 2 of 20
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,623member
    everyone at at that place should be in prison. Seems they're shameless in lying nearly 100% of the time.

    Considering Samsung itself may be overcapacity because they're own god damn phone are not going to be selling (or selling), the whole logic is flawed.

    That's especially crazy cause it's obvious the X woudl sell less in Q3 (like Iphones do every year) and if the S9 doesn't sell well they'll be stuck with a huge amount of capacity during the summer. If anything, people should be worried about Samsung.

    It's true though that phone sales cycles are extending and that's why Apple is very slowly weaning itself off them and looking at devellopping recurring revenues from their installed base
    edited February 18 watto_cobramagman1979JFC_PA
  • Reply 3 of 20
    .



    Jony: hey Tim I think you might be holding that wrong mate.
     Tim: ( under his breath ) shhh can't you see this young fella want's to take my picture ?
    king editor the gratemike54Macsplosion
  • Reply 4 of 20
    They must be short. 
  • Reply 5 of 20

    Designer Jonny: no Tim, that is not me. The colour pallete on the skirt may be the same as my jacket, but clearly my hairstyle is better.
    edited February 18 brakken
  • Reply 6 of 20
    Apple is going to be sending business to LG for its new OLED Screens - after fixing problems that knocked it out of contention for the iPhone X.

    This reduces Samsung's share of the OLED business. 
    watto_cobralolliverradarthekatmagman1979RonnnieOzroger73
  • Reply 7 of 20
    This article was posted in Nikkei on Friday, Feb 16th (2:15pm JST..12:15AM EST) Don’t understand why you are saying it was published in the Sunday morning edition. From the market’s perspective, this is old news.  Could be one reason the stock dipped on Fri.  Maybe you can correct it.  Thanks!
    seafox
  • Reply 8 of 20
    Because they went short. 
  • Reply 9 of 20
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 2,535administrator
    This article was posted in Nikkei on Friday, Feb 16th (2:15pm JST..12:15AM EST) Don’t understand why you are saying it was published in the Sunday morning edition. From the market’s perspective, this is old news.  Could be one reason the stock dipped on Fri.  Maybe you can correct it.  Thanks!
    Hm, I looked at that date three times, and still interpreted it to mean today. 

    Fixed thanks.

    As far as the dip, though, it appears to have followed the larger NASDAQ trend. Obviously, Apple is part of that, but still.
    edited February 18
  • Reply 10 of 20
    jony0 said:

    But … where else could a drop in demand possibly come from ?

    Could it be that in the just finished year …

    • the overall industry drooped 9 percent
    • during quarter four, [Strategy Analytics] characterizes the precipitous decline as the "biggest annual fall in smartphone history."

    Apple tops worldwide smartphone vendor list in Q4 amid industry contraction, report says

    Or could it be that Samsung doesn't have or is not expecting great pre-orders or future sales for its upcoming new release ?
    Nah, gotta be because of Apple and the obvious iPhone X failure.
    There, that was easy. Hey our analysis is now done and we can start our weekend, yippee.
    Yes blame Apple. The perfect marketing strategy for Samsung. Have a 3rd party blame Apple, that way Samsung can say it wasn't them that spread the rumor. The damage is done, and Samsung spins their lies on how the next phone is better than Apple's. 

    So Samsung isn't faulted for poor forecasting, it's Apple's fault. I'm sure they didn't have a minimum run agreement so that they could avoid excess inventory...... riiight. 

    Ps. Samsung displays on the X suck. 
    They scratch more easily then non-oled iPhones and from the looks of things, they fail more often.   Maybe Apple is looking elsewhere?
  • Reply 11 of 20
    Another 'Fare poorly, and good-bye, SS!' story. I'm very happy. Despite smartphone sales in plateau, Apple continues to expand its user base and services revenues, just like with the Mac. Any angst directed at Apple seem to me to be more a desperate cry of the passive-aggressive.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 20
    That pic of Tim is is very meme-able. 
    zroger73
  • Reply 13 of 20
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 4,998member
    I am sure that the supply orders for the X are falling, you would expect that post Christmas. Apple will try and make its suppliers build as much inventory as possible and then tell them as the last moment that there is a slowdown, although anybody could have anticipated it. Over the year you would expect the cheaper device (8 and 8 plusses) to become more dominant in the mix. 

    one of the reasons Apple created two models this year was not the anniversary - they barely mentioned that - but because of the fact that OLED production would not have kept up if the X were the only model. Definitely it was the cheaper model. For that reason they might discontinue the X this year ( not low sales). 
  • Reply 14 of 20
    Perfect headline for the story which rightly (but unusual these days) included context and perspective.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 20
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 5,890member
    It continues to sadden me that some investors use questionable data like this to make buy/sell decisions not only with AAPL but other stocks as well. I usually watch a bit of CNBC in the morning and the financial bantering, while entertaining, makes me uncomfortable when I think of people’s retirements accounts being at the whim of these bozos. If you visit a consumer financial website, say like MarketWatch, for every positive article there’s a corresponding negative article about the economy, about Apple, about whatever. Are you supposed to pick and choose which to believe? Throw a dart blindfolded and hope? It’s one of the many reasons I chose to hire a professional financial advisor whom I trust and who is associated a major investment firm (Stifel Nicolaus in my case). I know that doesn’t guarantee me success or security but it’s a damn site better than my own management skills or that of “a friend of a friend’s uncle”. And yes, I know people who suffered dearly because of that, and they were usually the ones boasting about their investment prowess.

    I do have some AAPL in my IRA portfolio.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 20
    mike1mike1 Posts: 1,617member
    jony0 said:

    But … where else could a drop in demand possibly come from ?

    Could it be that in the just finished year …

    • the overall industry drooped 9 percent
    • during quarter four, [Strategy Analytics] characterizes the precipitous decline as the "biggest annual fall in smartphone history."

    Apple tops worldwide smartphone vendor list in Q4 amid industry contraction, report says

    Or could it be that Samsung doesn't have or is not expecting great pre-orders or future sales for its upcoming new release ?
    Nah, gotta be because of Apple and the obvious iPhone X failure.
    There, that was easy. Hey our analysis is now done and we can start our weekend, yippee.
    Yes blame Apple. The perfect marketing strategy for Samsung. Have a 3rd party blame Apple, that way Samsung can say it wasn't them that spread the rumor. The damage is done, and Samsung spins their lies on how the next phone is better than Apple's. 

    So Samsung isn't faulted for poor forecasting, it's Apple's fault. I'm sure they didn't have a minimum run agreement so that they could avoid excess inventory...... riiight. 

    Ps. Samsung displays on the X suck. 
    They scratch more easily then non-oled iPhones and from the looks of things, they fail more often.   Maybe Apple is looking elsewhere?
    Huh? My X is the first phone for which I decided not to use a screen protector. Not a scratch after about four months now. Cite your data on the screens failing more often.
    gatorguywatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 20
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 5,890member
    mike1 said:
    jony0 said:

    But … where else could a drop in demand possibly come from ?

    Could it be that in the just finished year …

    • the overall industry drooped 9 percent
    • during quarter four, [Strategy Analytics] characterizes the precipitous decline as the "biggest annual fall in smartphone history."

    Apple tops worldwide smartphone vendor list in Q4 amid industry contraction, report says

    Or could it be that Samsung doesn't have or is not expecting great pre-orders or future sales for its upcoming new release ?
    Nah, gotta be because of Apple and the obvious iPhone X failure.
    There, that was easy. Hey our analysis is now done and we can start our weekend, yippee.
    Yes blame Apple. The perfect marketing strategy for Samsung. Have a 3rd party blame Apple, that way Samsung can say it wasn't them that spread the rumor. The damage is done, and Samsung spins their lies on how the next phone is better than Apple's. 

    So Samsung isn't faulted for poor forecasting, it's Apple's fault. I'm sure they didn't have a minimum run agreement so that they could avoid excess inventory...... riiight. 

    Ps. Samsung displays on the X suck. 
    They scratch more easily then non-oled iPhones and from the looks of things, they fail more often.   Maybe Apple is looking elsewhere?
    Huh? My X is the first phone for which I decided not to use a screen protector. Not a scratch after about four months now. Cite your data on the screens failing more often.
    No need for cited data. Just do a Google search on iPhone X screen failures and report the number of hits. Then say based on the “data” that the issue is all over the Internet. That’s how we “prove” things these days. /s
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 20
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 2,535administrator
    jony0 said:

    But … where else could a drop in demand possibly come from ?

    Could it be that in the just finished year …

    • the overall industry drooped 9 percent
    • during quarter four, [Strategy Analytics] characterizes the precipitous decline as the "biggest annual fall in smartphone history."

    Apple tops worldwide smartphone vendor list in Q4 amid industry contraction, report says

    Or could it be that Samsung doesn't have or is not expecting great pre-orders or future sales for its upcoming new release ?
    Nah, gotta be because of Apple and the obvious iPhone X failure.
    There, that was easy. Hey our analysis is now done and we can start our weekend, yippee.
    Yes blame Apple. The perfect marketing strategy for Samsung. Have a 3rd party blame Apple, that way Samsung can say it wasn't them that spread the rumor. The damage is done, and Samsung spins their lies on how the next phone is better than Apple's. 

    So Samsung isn't faulted for poor forecasting, it's Apple's fault. I'm sure they didn't have a minimum run agreement so that they could avoid excess inventory...... riiight. 

    Ps. Samsung displays on the X suck. 
    They scratch more easily then non-oled iPhones and from the looks of things, they fail more often.   Maybe Apple is looking elsewhere?
    The service data we have for the iPhone X doesn't suggest a larger-than average screen failure rate at the same time in the lifespan as previous models. In fact, it's a bit lower than any of the last three models -- but not outside the realm of statistical variance.
    gatorguywatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 20
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 429member
    Given Apples notorious secrecy surrounding actual sales data, It seems like the best way to estimate iPhone X sales would be to look at internet meta data, rather than making wild extrapolations on other rumors. Either way, unless you're over-leveraged in Apple stock, why does this matter? Demand for the X could be low, or it could be fine but either Apple or Samsung forecasted too high. Or Apple is diversifying it's OLED supply chain to reduce the dependence on Samsung. Whatever - All I care about is what iPhones are available and how well they work. 

    Judging by the comments here, there are a lot of people who are worried about their stock values.


  • Reply 20 of 20
    jony0jony0 Posts: 253member
    MplsP said:
    Judging by the comments here, there are a lot of people who are worried about their stock values.

    I wouldn't say worried. We're pretty inured to the ups and downs of all the WS trader shenanigans, it's just a healthy dose of cynicism as far as I'm concerned.
    edited February 19 watto_cobra
Sign In or Register to comment.