Fall LCD iPhone could be $200 cheaper than OLED counterparts, says analyst

Posted:
in iPhone
The next generation of iPhones will start production in August, according to a supply chain report from investment firm Rosenblatt Securities, with Apple expected to offer an LCD version of the smartphone at around $200 below the cost of the OLED models shipping at the same time.

iPhone X


The note written by Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang obtained by AppleInsider anticipates three new iPhone models will be launched later this year. The lineup will consist of two OLED versions, with 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch displays, alongside a 6.1-inch LCD version.

It is estimated as many as 60 million LCD models could be produced, more than the combined 50 million units expected for the OLED versions, consisting of 28 million 5.8-inch and 22 million 6.5-inch models.

While slightly different in quantity, this seems to match the views of other analysts for what Apple will be shipping this fall.

"We believe the LCD model is being positioned to be priced more aggressively - in the $799 range" the report states, suggesting it would help push iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s users to upgrade to the "iPhone 8S," apparently also known as the "Jaguar" model.

KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently suggested an even cheaper version of the 6.1-inch LCD model could be offered for between $550 and $650, while a $700 to $800 variant could include dual SIM slots without eSIM support.

The $200 price cut compared to the OLED models is down to an array of cost-cutting measures, including a $50 saving in using LCD instead of OLED, and switching out the steel frame for another material to save $20. Material cost reduction around the radios, a single camera on the rear, the removal of force touch, and other reductions are suggested.

While using LCD, Rosenblatt suggests Apple will still retain the notch at the top, but could also introduce a small bezel at the bottom. It is unclear why this may be included, but adding a chin would help simplify production by working within the limitations of LCD screen technology.

The 5.8-inch OLED "Porsche" model apparently won't have many "significant design changes" compared to the existing iPhone X.

The larger 6.5-inch OLED "Rolls-Royce" model will be positioned at a far higher price, and will have some slightly unusual features. The firm believes it will support the "iPen," which could be a reference to the Apple Pencil or a similar device, though the accessory will not be included in the box with the iPhone.

The bigger model is also thought by Rosenblatt to include a dual-SIM card design, which could help it appeal to regional markets like China where dual SIM card usage is more common.

The new iPhones may benefit from improvements from 3D sensing, it is suggested, with second-generation 3D sensing modules consuming less battery while enabling new application features. Lumentum is believed to be the main supplier of the higher-efficiency VCSEL modules that will be used in the new iPhones.

Another feature that may make an appearance is increased water resistance. The iPhone X, iPhone 8, and iPhone 8 Plus are IP67 rated, allowing them to endure splashes and immersion of up to 1 meter (3 feet 3 inches) for up to 30 minutes, but Apple is apparently working to push this to a depth of 10 meters.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 19
    Cheapest price of iPhone X currently = $999. Cheapest price of iPhone 8 Plus = $799. Therefore, Kuo's "prediction" is something that is already true.
    SpamSandwichcornchip
  • Reply 2 of 19
    tjwolftjwolf Posts: 275member
    What I'm really curious about is whether all the new iPhone 8s's (i.e. the LCD models) will have Face ID.  I imagine Apple will want to eventually bring that feature to all phones & tablets, but it seems too early to do it in an "s" cycle - especially since it's pretty much the main distinguishing feature between the X and 8 series (well, there's the OLED, but in my book that's not that big a selling feature, except to geeks.  I moved from an old iPhone 6 to an X and, sure, the screen is better, but not more so than with every other upgrade I had in the past).
    repressthis
  • Reply 3 of 19
    GG1GG1 Posts: 256member
    I don't mind an added 6.1 inch LCD model with TouchID, but please leave the dual camera and Force Touch alone.

    Hopefully, dual-SIM will make it to the "Porsche" model.
    netmagerandominternetpersonrepressthis
  • Reply 4 of 19
    jcs2305jcs2305 Posts: 740member
    Cheapest price of iPhone X currently = $999. Cheapest price of iPhone 8 Plus = $799. Therefore, Kuo's "prediction" is something that is already true.
    I thought exactly the same thing? 
  • Reply 5 of 19
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,920member
    There are a lot of moving parts here of course, but with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I can't help but wonder if perhaps going to OLED screens might not have been a great idea. 

    I know there were a lot of people in the press clamoring for OLED, and criticizing Apple relative to Samsung for not having OLED. I personally never thought it was a big deal that Apple stuck with LCD, especially given that their LCD screens have really been very good. 

    I wonder if Apple might have fallen into the trap of competing on a line in the spec sheet rather than the entirety of the product. 
    aylk
  • Reply 6 of 19
    hmlongcohmlongco Posts: 177member
    blastdoor said:
    I wonder if Apple might have fallen into the trap of competing on a line in the spec sheet rather than the entirety of the product. 
    Apple has indicated that the "folding" aspect of OLED screens is what lets them get the edge-to-edge design.
    randominternetpersonrepressthis
  • Reply 7 of 19
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,527member
    It is possible the new iPhone X model could come down a bit in price due to the talks of OLED panel prices also being reduced by Samsung/other suppliers.  So that product could start at $949 as an example.

    I would expect that the 6.1" LCD model would retain the $799 price (if not increase to $849 due to size and potentially other features).  Thus price difference could easily be only $150, or even $100, which seems about right.

    Apple could possibly reduce the 5.8" new iPhone X to $899 (with some more aggressive OLED panel and other component cost reductions), but that sets up the crisis of people (millions) having just paid $999 for the 2017 model iPhone X the quarter before. I don't think they will do that.

    As for Ming's view that a variant of the 6.1" LCD could be introduced at $550 - that kind of screws up the pricing for all other older models.  Unless Apple is planning a MAJOR shakeup to their entire iPhone sales approach (basically destroying the value of iPhone 8/8+ and 7/7+), Ming's comment rings as pure BS.
  • Reply 8 of 19
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 1,975member
    jcs2305 said:
    Cheapest price of iPhone X currently = $999. Cheapest price of iPhone 8 Plus = $799. Therefore, Kuo's "prediction" is something that is already true.
    I thought exactly the same thing? 
    Me too. Maybe he is running out of cats. 
  • Reply 9 of 19
    jcs2305jcs2305 Posts: 740member
    tjwolf said:
    What I'm really curious about is whether all the new iPhone 8s's (i.e. the LCD models) will have Face ID.  I imagine Apple will want to eventually bring that feature to all phones & tablets, but it seems too early to do it in an "s" cycle - especially since it's pretty much the main distinguishing feature between the X and 8 series (well, there's the OLED, but in my book that's not that big a selling feature, except to geeks.  I moved from an old iPhone 6 to an X and, sure, the screen is better, but not more so than with every other upgrade I had in the past).
    They introduced Touch Id with the iPhone 5S so it wouldn't be that far of a reach to think they Face ID could be included with this year's S model, if that is even the naming that will be used this year for the new phones?
  • Reply 10 of 19
    They won't introduce a 6.1" model at $800 without force touch and another 6.1" model (implying the same form factor) at $550. A second SIM means nilly dilly to most people. If it doesn't have dual camera and force touch, $800 is way too high.
  • Reply 11 of 19
    SumocatSSumocatS Posts: 1unconfirmed, member
    "While using LCD, Rosenblatt suggests Apple will still retain the notch at the top, but could also introduce a small bezel at the bottom. It is unclear why this may be included, but adding a chin would help simplify production by working within the limitations of LCD screen technology." -- iPhone X folds the flexible OLED at the bottom to connect the display and eliminate the bezel. LCD can't do that.
    GeorgeBMacrepressthis
  • Reply 12 of 19
    brucemc said:
    It is possible the new iPhone X model could come down a bit in price due to the talks of OLED panel prices also being reduced by Samsung/other suppliers.  So that product could start at $949 as an example.

    I would expect that the 6.1" LCD model would retain the $799 price (if not increase to $849 due to size and potentially other features).  Thus price difference could easily be only $150, or even $100, which seems about right.

    Apple could possibly reduce the 5.8" new iPhone X to $899 (with some more aggressive OLED panel and other component cost reductions), but that sets up the crisis of people (millions) having just paid $999 for the 2017 model iPhone X the quarter before. I don't think they will do that.

    As for Ming's view that a variant of the 6.1" LCD could be introduced at $550 - that kind of screws up the pricing for all other older models.  Unless Apple is planning a MAJOR shakeup to their entire iPhone sales approach (basically destroying the value of iPhone 8/8+ and 7/7+), Ming's comment rings as pure BS.
    Just on the highlighted point - Not really. As per this rumor, the 6.1" LCD model would not have 3D touch functionality. Most likely it would not have dual cameras as well. And another possibility - A10 or A11, paired with 2 GB RAM as well. And No water resistance rating as well. Those features would differentiate iPhone 8/8+/7/7+ with the new model. Apple knows how to differentiate the relatively low cost models as we all know. I don't see a problem with new LCD model starting at $550 or $600.
  • Reply 13 of 19
    tjwolftjwolf Posts: 275member
    jcs2305 said:
    They introduced Touch Id with the iPhone 5S so it wouldn't be that far of a reach to think they Face ID could be included with this year's S model, if that is even the naming that will be used this year for the new phones?
    True, but like I said - FaceID is kind of the main differentiator between the X and 8 "series".  If they start putting that in the 8s, what would be the reason for buying an Xs? (I assume that by including FaceID, the Home button will also disappear and, thus, the 8s would have edge-to-edge display).
  • Reply 14 of 19
    I doubt Apple will drop force touch from any iPhone.  It's hard enough to get developers to adopt new technologies (e.g., updating their apps to make effective use of this option) without pulling the rug out from under them by not fully supporting it.  And I'm certain that users who have gotten used to force touch would be none to pleased to learn that their new $600 phone isn't as good as their old phone in that regard.

    Personally, I'm very curious how many users use force touch.  I expect there are literally millions of iPhone owners that have never discovered it.  
    SpamSandwich
  • Reply 15 of 19
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 4,500member
    For me, there's only one question:   Can my 6+ hang on for another 5 months?

    Come on boy!  You can do it!   I know you can do it!
    ... It's like the Little Train That Could:   Chug, Chug, Chug, up the hill...
    edited April 2018 muthuk_vanalingamapplesnoranges
  • Reply 16 of 19
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,129member
    I doubt Apple will drop force touch from any iPhone.  It's hard enough to get developers to adopt new technologies (e.g., updating their apps to make effective use of this option) without pulling the rug out from under them by not fully supporting it.  And I'm certain that users who have gotten used to force touch would be none to pleased to learn that their new $600 phone isn't as good as their old phone in that regard.

    Personally, I'm very curious how many users use force touch.  I expect there are literally millions of iPhone owners that have never discovered it.  
    It's a useful feature that is inconsistently implemented.
  • Reply 17 of 19
    designrdesignr Posts: 503member
    Should we be concerned that Apple is code-naming their products things like "Porsche", "Jaguar" and "Rolls-Royce"?

    ;)  <<<<<

    edited April 2018
  • Reply 18 of 19
    brucemc said:
    It is possible the new iPhone X model could come down a bit in price due to the talks of OLED panel prices also being reduced by Samsung/other suppliers.  So that product could start at $949 as an example.

    I would expect that the 6.1" LCD model would retain the $799 price (if not increase to $849 due to size and potentially other features).  Thus price difference could easily be only $150, or even $100, which seems about right.

    Apple could possibly reduce the 5.8" new iPhone X to $899 (with some more aggressive OLED panel and other component cost reductions), but that sets up the crisis of people (millions) having just paid $999 for the 2017 model iPhone X the quarter before. I don't think they will do that.

    As for Ming's view that a variant of the 6.1" LCD could be introduced at $550 - that kind of screws up the pricing for all other older models.  Unless Apple is planning a MAJOR shakeup to their entire iPhone sales approach (basically destroying the value of iPhone 8/8+ and 7/7+), Ming's comment rings as pure BS.
    Just on the highlighted point - Not really. As per this rumor, the 6.1" LCD model would not have 3D touch functionality. Most likely it would not have dual cameras as well. And another possibility - A10 or A11, paired with 2 GB RAM as well. And No water resistance rating as well. Those features would differentiate iPhone 8/8+/7/7+ with the new model. Apple knows how to differentiate the relatively low cost models as we all know. I don't see a problem with new LCD model starting at $550 or $600.
    Possibly, but this ~$550 feature-reduced iPhone would not caring the nomenclature ‘iPhone 8s, or 9’ IMO. Successors to pervious flagships do not lose major features. In your scenario this ~$550 model would have a new name.
  • Reply 19 of 19
    brucemc said:
    It is possible the new iPhone X model could come down a bit in price due to the talks of OLED panel prices also being reduced by Samsung/other suppliers.  So that product could start at $949 as an example.

    I would expect that the 6.1" LCD model would retain the $799 price (if not increase to $849 due to size and potentially other features).  Thus price difference could easily be only $150, or even $100, which seems about right.

    Apple could possibly reduce the 5.8" new iPhone X to $899 (with some more aggressive OLED panel and other component cost reductions), but that sets up the crisis of people (millions) having just paid $999 for the 2017 model iPhone X the quarter before. I don't think they will do that.

    As for Ming's view that a variant of the 6.1" LCD could be introduced at $550 - that kind of screws up the pricing for all other older models.  Unless Apple is planning a MAJOR shakeup to their entire iPhone sales approach (basically destroying the value of iPhone 8/8+ and 7/7+), Ming's comment rings as pure BS.
    Just on the highlighted point - Not really. As per this rumor, the 6.1" LCD model would not have 3D touch functionality. Most likely it would not have dual cameras as well. And another possibility - A10 or A11, paired with 2 GB RAM as well. And No water resistance rating as well. Those features would differentiate iPhone 8/8+/7/7+ with the new model. Apple knows how to differentiate the relatively low cost models as we all know. I don't see a problem with new LCD model starting at $550 or $600.
    Possibly, but this ~$550 feature-reduced iPhone would not caring the nomenclature ‘iPhone 8s, or 9’ IMO. Successors to pervious flagships do not lose major features. In your scenario this ~$550 model would have a new name.
    Agreed, it would have a new name (SE plus, just as a guess???). If costs permit, it might even have FaceID to sweeten the deal and will not be looked down upon as a full downgrade from the regular models (7 plus/8 plus).
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