Apple Music estimated at 21M North American listeners, converting at 2.5 times rate of Spo...

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in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV edited September 25
Apple Music is advancing rapidly against Spotify in terms of paid subscribers, in no small part because of its captive marketing audience, according to an analyst memo shared with AppleInsider on Tuesday.

Apple Music nag screens


"Adjusting for addressable market...Apple is converting potential customers into paying customers at a rate 2.5x faster than Spotify," writes Loup Ventures analyst Gene Munster. In North America, where Apple CEO Tim Cook recently claimed to have overtaken Spotify in paid customers, Munster estimates that Apple Music has 21 million subcribers versus Spotify's 20 million.

The analyst suggests that while Apple's conversion rate can be attributed partly to iPhone owners having more disposable income, the bigger factor is Apple's control of iOS -- which not only provides a "seamlessly integrated music experience," but built-in advertising working to persuade people to subscribe. The company has so far denied integration of third-party streaming services into iOS and Siri, and while Spotify may be popular, iPhone owners must actively seek it out.

Apple Music has "room to grow," with 45 million global subscribers out of some 780 million active iPhone users, Munster says. Spotify is still said to dominate the global music streaming market, though its share has slid year-over-year from 65 to 62 percent. Apple has grown from 30 to 34, while Pandora has slipped from 6 percent to 4.

Spotify is said to have at least one advantage, which is that it works well on both iOS and Android devices. While Apple Music is technically available for Android, Munster estimates that 95 percent of subscribers are on iOS. Many of the reasons to use the service disappear on Android, such as Siri voice commands or HomePod compatibility.

Unmentioned by Munster is the fact that unlike Apple, Spotify has a free, ad-supported tier in addition to subcriptions. Though free listeners generate less money, they can stick with the service beyond any trial period, and eventually sign up if they have the money for monthly fees. Spotify has 180 million or more listeners worldwide, of which 83 million are Premium subscribers.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 11
    How’s that Apple Television (not to be confused with Apple TV) doing Gene? Coming out any day now?
    claire1
  • Reply 1 of 11
    I just signed up for Apple Music. It offers what others don't: anime theme songs, movie soundtracks and extensive collection of A to Z-POPs. The best part is when I "SoundHound" a track, it finds the song from Apple Music and automatically adds it to a Playlist.
    Deelronwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 11
    Don’t forget,with Shortcuts Support, Pandora & iHeartRadio can also get Siri support & better iOS integration.
    watchOS 5 also helps with apps getting offline playback support.
  • Reply 4 of 11
    Wall Street is only going to look at AppleMusic's subscriber base from a global perspective which will make it fall well short of Spotify which will definitely not help AppleMusic's value to help boost Apple's overall value. AppleMusic will remain tied to how many iPhones Apple can sell globally which is a relatively limited amount when compared to Android devices. Spotify runs on almost every device out there. AppleMusic not so much. Apple's only alternative is to keep holding on to older iOS users and gain at least a tiny amount of new iOS users every year. AppleMusic will never be valued by Wall Street even close to Spotify. Spotify has a share price of $180 with an EPS of -10.2x. That's just friggin crazy. I'll bet AppleMusic isn't even valued a tenth of that and there's no way AppleMusic would have a negative EPS as there are only paid subscribers. Spotify is automatically being given the benefit of the doubt by investors while AppleMusic is basically being overlooked in terms of value.
    goodbyeranchclaire1
  • Reply 5 of 11
    Wall Street is only going to look at AppleMusic's subscriber base from a global perspective which will make it fall well short of Spotify which will definitely not help AppleMusic's value to help boost Apple's overall value. AppleMusic will remain tied to how many iPhones Apple can sell globally which is a relatively limited amount when compared to Android devices. Spotify runs on almost every device out there. AppleMusic not so much. Apple's only alternative is to keep holding on to older iOS users and gain at least a tiny amount of new iOS users every year. AppleMusic will never be valued by Wall Street even close to Spotify. Spotify has a share price of $180 with an EPS of -10.2x. That's just friggin crazy. I'll bet AppleMusic isn't even valued a tenth of that and there's no way AppleMusic would have a negative EPS as there are only paid subscribers. Spotify is automatically being given the benefit of the doubt by investors while AppleMusic is basically being overlooked in terms of value.
    I think you might be confused.  Apple Music isn't a separate company and isn't valued as such by Wall Street investors.  It's value also goes well beyond the direct subscribers as it enhances the entire ecosystem and it allows those 50-60 million and rising subscribers to be monetized any number of ways, such as with the upcoming video streaming service.  Most importantly,  Spotify is in very precarious financial position as it has never made money and is hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate.  It is a one trick pony based on a few wealthy venture capitalists betting on being bought out.  It can't raise prices as music streaming has become close to a "commoditized" business where consumers largely choose on price; that's why it has had to match every price discount Apple has offered.  Thus, Spotify can't raise prices as its costs rise because Apple, Amazon and Google have enormous business with large revenue streams other than their music streaming.  I bet your farm on Spotify as their only hope is someone buys them.
    edited September 25 lostkiwiwatto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 11
    I would rather listen to music for free on Spotify with a few ads than be locked in to renting music from Apple with a monthly charge.  I still by CDs from my favorite artists for the better sound quality and I can rip them at a higher quality than any streaming service.
  • Reply 7 of 11
    Back when Apple overpaid for Beats iTunes had 800-900 million accounts and after all this time and all the free giveaways of trails they have 20 million paying customers? I would call that a flop despite the endless hype.

    If you were a salesman and I gave you a contact list of better than 3/4 of a billion accounts and you could not convert but 20 million to the new product, the review would be that either you were not a good salesman or the product sucked. We all know Apple has spent a fortune promoting rental rap from ads to free trials, so the other possibility would be a good take. The entire market after all this time is less than the population of Texas.

    Flop.
  • Reply 8 of 11
    I would rather listen to music for free on Spotify with a few ads than be locked in to renting music from Apple with a monthly charge.  I still by CDs from my favorite artists for the better sound quality and I can rip them at a higher quality than any streaming service.
    And that's fine. You may not be aware of the other things you're missing that are only on Apple Music (some great radio shows, music documentaries, artist profile docs, certain exclusives, and a lot more privacy), but perhaps that doesn't matter to you -- and again, that's cool. I should mention that you can actually get Apple Music for $8.25 a month by agreeing to be billed yearly. Not sure if Spotify has that option, but particuarly thanks to the above features (and what I find to be a superior recommendation engine), I think Apple Music's a bargain (and yes, I also buy CDs of my favourites too).
    claire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 11
    The best part is when I "SoundHound" a track, it finds the song from Apple Music and automatically adds it to a Playlist.

    Shazam does this too.
    ravnorodomclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 11
    Don’t forget,with Shortcuts Support, Pandora & iHeartRadio can also get Siri support & better iOS integration.
    watchOS 5 also helps with apps getting offline playback support.

    Shortcuts is amazing. I've already loaded some on my Control Center. I'm using it a lot more now than when it was WorkFlow! The way Apple has integrated this so deeply into iOS is amazing.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 11
    claire1claire1 Posts: 446unconfirmed, member
    davgreg said:
    Back when Apple overpaid for Beats iTunes had 800-900 million accounts and after all this time and all the free giveaways of trails they have 20 million paying customers? I would call that a flop despite the endless hype.

    If you were a salesman and I gave you a contact list of better than 3/4 of a billion accounts and you could not convert but 20 million to the new product, the review would be that either you were not a good salesman or the product sucked. We all know Apple has spent a fortune promoting rental rap from ads to free trials, so the other possibility would be a good take. The entire market after all this time is less than the population of Texas.

    Flop.
    Not sure if you're being sarcastic but you're comparing GLOBAL iTunes accounts to North American Apple Music subscribers(with a 2.5x rate of Spotify).

    That's like giving a sales man 900 million customers around the world but you only count his sales in North America.
    watto_cobra
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