Lack of iPhone XR delivery delays suggest softer launch demand than iPhone XS

Posted:
in iPhone
Fewer people are rushing to buy the iPhone XR on the first day of preorders than during the iPhone XS launch, but the iPhone XR should still ultimately reign as the most popular 2018 iPhone, Loup Ventures' Gene Munster claims.

Apple iPhone XR


By noon Eastern time on Friday, "we were surprised to see that lead [delivery] times remained entirely unchanged except for several SKUs on T-Mobile," wrote Munster in a research note. This compares against equivalent times for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, which quickly stretched out to between three and four weeks.

"As of noon ET, you can still order a[n] XR and have it delivered on October 26," the analyst noted. Munster also pointed out that the inferring demand based on delivery times slipping has some risks, as there is no way of knowing how many units Apple produced in total, or by model.

In spite of the this early data, Munster argues that the XR will become the bestselling iPhone in the next year, representing 38 percent of shipments in Apple's fiscal 2019. The phone is said to be the "greatest value" for shoppers, presumably referring to it starting at $749 -- $250 less than the XS -- while having many of the same features as its more expensive cousins, like Face ID, an edge-to-edge screen, and an A12 processor.

Loup is aiming to collect more data on October 26, when people will line up to buy an XR in-store.

"If lines are shorter than what we observed for the XS and XS Max launches in September, we will reevaluate our mix assumptions," said Munster. "Either way, this doesn't change our belief that iPhone unit growth in FY19 will be 3 percent y/y, slightly ahead of the Street's 1 percent. Separately, we continue to believe there is ASP [average selling price] upside and are modeling for $791 vs. the [Wall] Street [consensus] at $770."

The iPhone XR could potentially force ASP numbers down, but Apple may be counting on better shipments to make up the difference. Prior to the iPhone X launch in 2017, some analysts were worried about how many people would be willing to buy a $999 iPhone, but shoppers took to the device and kept ASP up.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 54
    Not entirely shocking when you consider the 5c.
    bb-15claire1dick applebaum
  • Reply 2 of 54
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,783member
    I'm sure Apple produced more Xr phones than Xs so they clearly expected more demand for the Xs which would obviously have a bigger impact on early availability.

    Of course how much they could actually produce for the initial roll out is more interesting and that's unknown.

    If the first shipments were on the low side high availability might be indicative of something.

    It's worth noting that even the 'affordable' Xr is basically a 1,000€ phone in the EU. That's a lot of money and with Black Friday on the horizon people might be holding off a bit, especially if the purchase is a possible Xmas gift. 

    I was back in the market for an X model until prices were announced. It's now a no go for us.
  • Reply 3 of 54
    Oh Vey !!!

    Not this again?!?!?

    Perhaps Apple made many more Xr's, than Xs or Xs Max?

    Perhaps?
    chasmjbdragonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 54
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,442member
    Or maybe it suggests Apple got the demand right and has enough product to sell. And so now the metric for how successful an Apple product is means counting the number of people in line? Like going into Best Buy and counting boxes on the shelves? Do these asshats really do that? I know a lot of people wake up every morning and check the news to see if Apple has failed yet but my God, really?
    edited October 19 magman1979chiaracerhomie3thinkman@chartermi.netbb-15macxpressStrangeDayswilliamlondonclaire1TomE
  • Reply 5 of 54
    magman1979magman1979 Posts: 1,066member
    OMFG, who the hell even listens to this waste of skin anymore??? I'm guessing only similar wastes of skin...
    leavingthebiggd_2watto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 54
    You could believe this crap, or you know, wait for Apple to announce their earnings.
    edited October 19 d_2chasmStrangeDaysclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 54
    I think Apple has consistently proven that a relatively high percentage of their customers are willing to pay a premium for the absolute best, especially the kind of customer who waits to buy a new iPhone on the first day of pre-orders. I think the XR will do fine, but given how much iPhone owners tend to use their devices, many are willing to pay a few hundred bucks extra for a better daily experience. The X outsold the 8 and 8 Plus, and I expect the XS and XS Max to be similarly popular too. I think having the XR come out a few weeks later serves multiple purposes—allowing Apple to focus on making and selling the more profitable high-end models before releasing the less profitable one, and giving more of a media blitz boost to the more profitable models. It’s also kind of in-between in terms of size, which might be to its detriment—lovers of big screens will prefer the Max, lovers of one-handed operation will prefer the XS. 

    But it I do agree with Munster that it’s “a XR” not “an XR.” An-ten-R-gate!
    edited October 19 radarthekatclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 54
    Of course they made far more XRs……………nearly as functional as the far more expensive X or XS! I have faith that Apple has better control over their supply chain than in previous years. Surprised that they don’t have the same crystal ball as all the sad-aϟϟ’d talking heads? Kinda makes you wonder how they got to their current evaluation - huh!
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 54
    Haha. Bollocks. No one but apple knows the demand and supply. At my local carrier in Canada, I can only pre-order Black or White in all storage capacities. What does that mean?

    To clarify the other colours are just not available for pre-order. Black and white are the only options.  Is this bc of supply issues or demand issues? Know one knows. 
    edited October 19 watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 54
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 1,903member
    Or they’re not supply constrained... 

    The iPhone XR could potentially force ASP numbers down, but Apple may be counting on better shipments to make up the difference.
    How? Yes, I read the link but it makes zero sense to me. It suggests the XR pulls sales away from the higher priced XS, but the base XR is more expensive than the 8 was last year. If you figure most people are buying XR/XS this year in numbers comparable to 8/X last year, the ASP would go way up.  I know it’s not an apples to apples comparison but I don’t see the logic here. To me, it looks like one of Tim’s famous “nice problems to have”.
    edited October 19 bb-15StrangeDayswilliamlondon
  • Reply 11 of 54
    I’m thinking a lot of people are waiting to see all the new colors in person before buying. Combine that with a larger supply and the fact that super-diehard Apple fans probably already got the Xs or Xs Max. It looks like an amazing phone for the price! The phone is going to sell like hotcakes.
    euler
  • Reply 12 of 54
    XR 64GB was available thru my company for $149 (with 2-yr service commitment).  Got it.
    claire1
  • Reply 13 of 54
    Perhaps the XR could have launched at the same time as the XS and XS Max, but Apple held onto it to maximize XS/XS Max sales? In the meantime, they built up plenty of inventory for the XR. I almost waited for the XR, since I skipped the X last year and still had my seven, but did the BOGO $700 off deal at AT&T and opted to get an XS for me and an XS Max for my wife since I was getting it at a discount. I think the XR is going to do great business.
  • Reply 14 of 54
    chasmchasm Posts: 951member
    Sorry, Mr. Munster, but the lack of a complete sellout suggests no such thing whatsoever. Apple had plenty of extra time to make more, because of course they anticipated that a $250 cheaper iPhone with 95 percent of the same features (and a bit bigger) than the iPhone X was going to be ... surprise! Popular! So ... they stockpiled, and are doing a slow rollout worldwide! Shock!

    This is a perfect example of why people make fun of analysts, and why they don't deserve whatever they're being paid. It won't be the end of this quarter, but Munster is bound to get proven wrong (as usual) yet again during some future results call.

    Yes, Apple harvested the can't-wait, can-afford crowd for the XS Max -- bu those people weren't going to buy the XR anyway. The XR hits the sweet spot for anyone who isn't under subsidies anymore, and is a real improvement in both size and features to the iPhone X, which normally would be the second best-selling iPhone now as last year's now-discounted model.

    I wish there were some published guidelines on how incompetent you have to be at your job before you get fired as a tech sector analyst, because I'm pretty sure Rob Enderle and Gene Munster would be panhandlers today if there were such guidelines.
    StrangeDaysclaire1fastasleep
  • Reply 15 of 54
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 1,613member
    Chilled! until people walk into store to have hands on experience, you will see all kind of retarded news. At the end, iPhone XR is winner. I am upgrading 5 iPhones in my family with XRRRR..
    edited October 19 claire1
  • Reply 16 of 54
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 688member
    Clearly, Apple is going to go bankrupt since the Xr is such a dismal failure. 

    Wait - marketing actually got their numbers right, so they ordered the right number of phones ahead of time. Everything's OK!

    Or maybe, the LCDs are easier to make and less supply constrained than the OLED displays for the Xs.

    No - it's the fact that people ordering the Xs are the ones who have to have the latest and best whereas the Xr crowd is willing to wait a bit and see the reviews first before ordering. 

    Or maybe, some analyst just needs to get a report out before he buys/sells his stock...
    crossladbb-15robjnfastasleep
  • Reply 17 of 54
    512ke512ke Posts: 774member
    jgreg728 said:
    Not entirely shocking when you consider the 5c.
    Apple's single iPhone 5c model was one of the top most successful smartphone designs created and sold in 2013.

    Apple's iPhone XR will be one of the top most successful smartphone designs created and sold in 2018.
    claire1robjnfastasleep
  • Reply 18 of 54
    Or it could be that people like myself who logged on to buy the XR today saw a new and better incentive from their carrier and the ordered an XS instead. 🤷‍♂️
    williamlondon
  • Reply 19 of 54
    Ps- I find it ironic this site couldn’t handle my Apple emoji.
  • Reply 20 of 54
    So when a product is sold out it’s because Apple is artificially constraining supply to create demand but when a product isn’t sold out it’s not because Apple has sufficiently ramped up supply but because the demand isn’t there?
    bb-15StrangeDayswilliamlondonclaire1muthuk_vanalingamrobjnchasm
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