'iPhone 5G' in late 2020 will drive 200 million sales for Apple, says Ming-Chi Kuo

Posted:
in iPhone edited April 22
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has thrown his hat into the ring in regards to iPhone 5G predictions, and also suspects that it will be released in the second half of 2020, and it will have a big impact on sales.

Qualcomm 4G modem in iPhone
Qualcomm 4G modem in iPhone


"We believe the uncertainty has been removed after Apple and Qualcomm's end of patent dispute and entrance into a six-year licensing deal, and Intel's announcement that it will exit the 5G baseband chip business," writes Kuo in a note to investors, seen by AppleInsider.

Samsung is expected to provide sub-6GHz modem parts, with Qualcomm providing modems mmWave markets. Intel has exited the 5G smartphone modem market entirely, and Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

Kuo expects that the modem addition will grow iPhone sales from between 188 million and 192 million in 2019, to 195 million to 200 million by 2020. Between 70 million and 75 million of those sales in 2020 are predicted to be in the second half of 2020, following the iPhone 5G release.

Even with the increase from 2019 to 2020, that still falls short of the heyday of iPhone sales in 2015, with the company selling 231.2 million iPhones in that year. The company sold 211.8 million, 216.8 million, and 217.7 million iPhones in fiscal years 2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively.

In regards to the "iPhone 5G," TSMC has also developed a 5-nanometer design infrastructure, which can be employed for future chip designs and could land in the 2020 refresh. Earlier speculation suggested it could be used in the "A14" chips for the 2020 iPhones, and depending on the fortunes of N6, could still be a possibility.

Other rumors have pegged the entire 2020 line to use OLED screens, versus OLED in two models, and LCD in the iPhone XR at present. Samsung is expected to be the main supplier of OLED screens, but LG Display and Japan Display aren't presently expected to garner any orders.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 39
    Wait, I thought Apple was doomed ?!?
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,154member
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    curtis hannah
  • Reply 3 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,154member
    Actually, I would think that, after waiting till September of 2020 to release a phone with current technology in it, the biggest increase in sales would be from those who held off buying a phone till Apple released one with 5G.   Unfortunately, many would have already given up and moved to Samsung or Huawei phones -- or any of the others that have modern modems in them.

    The arguments that
    1)  "You can't use it today -- and I get a new phone every year"
    2)  "It doesn't apply to me because I live in a remote, rural area."
    Are basically bogus.   Countries, telecoms and mobile equipment manufacturers aren't sinking billions into it because it has no value.

    Yes, the U.S. is behind in rolling out 5G (even though Verizon plans to have it in 30 cities before 2020).   But, that is because of politics.  Other countries, like China, are rolling it out with the full support of their manufacturers and national & local governments.  But, for Apple, China is rapidly becoming their major market -- they wouldn't want to set themselves even further back by participating in political gamesmanship.
    edited April 22 jahbladecanukstorm
  • Reply 4 of 39
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,417member
    Sounds like those locations currently testing 5G are having technical problems. Expect the rollout across the US to be very slow.
    jahbladecurtis hannahchasmMplsPwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 39
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,012member
    Intel has exited the 5G smartphone modem market entirely or just 5G smartphone modem business where requirements are stringent. Intel web site still promoting Intel on 5G tech. https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/wireless-network/5g-technology-overview.html



  • Reply 6 of 39
    thttht Posts: 3,252member
    Skeptical of 200m sales a year. Phone ownership of 2017, 2018 models is going to be what, 4 years on average? Just don’t see the upgrade rates picking up, and only see them slowing down.

    i don’t see any feature that will entice people to upgrade from an existing phone faster. It’s not going to be faster bandwidth. It’s not going to be folding phones. It’s not going to be OLED, miniLED or microLED. 

    My 6S Plus is still running really strong, after battery changeout and iOS 12. Love it. I can use it for another year without issue I think. Whatever glass formulation Apple uses for the 6S Plus, it’s been magic with the micro-scratches, ie, preventing them. 
    curtis hannahcanukstormwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 39
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,896administrator
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    What, that it isn't supplying modems to Apple? The chairman of Huawei's board says that they haven't talked to Apple.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/04/16/huawei-chairman-says-apple-has-not-discussed-buying-its-5g-modems-for-iphone
    edited April 22 SolichiachasmMplsPbestkeptsecretwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 39
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,896administrator
    wood1208 said:
    Intel has exited the 5G smartphone modem market entirely or just 5G smartphone modem business where requirements are stringent. Intel web site still promoting Intel on 5G tech. https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/wireless-network/5g-technology-overview.html



    The smartphone modem market in its entirety. The company is still investigating backbone and enterprise gear.
    edited April 22 caladanianchiachasm
  • Reply 9 of 39
    Yes, the U.S. is behind in rolling out 5G (even though Verizon plans to have it in 30 cities before 2020).   But, that is because of politics. 
    30 Cities is likely cities that all have great coverage of 4g already, I wouldn’t consider it a decent rollout until it’s at 100 cities. Also almost all goals have been missed this far, so I wouldn’t bet on that claim.

    Politics is an influence since at least on the T-Mobile/ Sprint side they are waiting on the status of the pending merger before they rollout their network(s). I don’t think there is anything in particular holding back AT&T and Verizon beyond bad experience from customers thus far.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 39
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 8,588member
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    Again, the six US intelligence agencies that briefed congress are not an arm of the administration, the same administration they have also spoken out against -- like when they said Russia meddled in the election to his benefit, and that he was full of it when rejecting their position that the Saudi Crown Prince killed US resident Jamal Khashoggi. If you believed them in those cases, you have no logical reason to not believe them now.

    https://www.fastcompany.com/40530898/six-u-s-intelligence-agencies-warn-against-using-huawei-phones

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/14/17011246/huawei-phones-safe-us-intelligence-chief-fears

    You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts. Problematic, I know.
    edited April 22 tmayMplsPwatto_cobraAppleDumpling
  • Reply 11 of 39
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,716member
    For a second, I thought it read a "growth of 200 MM iPhones". That would be amazing but 0% chance of happening. 200 MM in a year is doable. 
    edited April 22 watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 39
    I was surprised that iPhone XS sales were so high given the high cost as it offered few real tangible benefits to most customers but I think many are on a 2-year phone contract (very common in the UK at least). 

    I wonder what Apple can offer users to entice them to upgrade to a new iPhone in 2019 knowing that a 5G iPhone will arrive in 2020. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 39
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,012member
    It is common sense that next desirable tech jump in wireless mobile smartphone is WiFi 6 and 5G. So, anticipating 2020 iPhone with 5G will attract many to upgrade and by that time not lots of 5G coverage but enough to justify to buy 5G phone.
  • Reply 14 of 39
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,012member
    wood1208 said:
    Intel has exited the 5G smartphone modem market entirely or just 5G smartphone modem business where requirements are stringent. Intel web site still promoting Intel on 5G tech. https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/wireless-network/5g-technology-overview.html



    The smartphone modem market in its entirety. The company is still investigating backbone and enterprise gear.
    Intel already have developed 5G tech than why not put to use in areas other than smartphone. Never know someday, Intel might come back with smartphone 5G modem business..
  • Reply 15 of 39
    seankillseankill Posts: 489member
    iPhone 7 will need to make it to 4 years. 
    bookra50
  • Reply 16 of 39
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,959member
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    Again, the six US intelligence agencies that briefed congress are not an arm of the administration, the same administration they have also spoken out against -- like when they said Russia meddled in the election to his benefit, and that he was full of it when rejecting their position that the Saudi Crown Prince killed US resident Jamal Khashoggi. If you believed them in those cases, you have no logical reason to not believe them now.

    https://www.fastcompany.com/40530898/six-u-s-intelligence-agencies-warn-against-using-huawei-phones

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/14/17011246/huawei-phones-safe-us-intelligence-chief-fears

    You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts. Problematic, I know.
    Ruh oh!

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3685669

    New Huawei P30 Pro found to be querying servers in China


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 39
    thttht Posts: 3,252member
    wood1208 said:
    It is common sense that next desirable tech jump in wireless mobile smartphone is WiFi 6 and 5G. So, anticipating 2020 iPhone with 5G will attract many to upgrade and by that time not lots of 5G coverage but enough to justify to buy 5G phone.
    Totally disagree. Nobody wants WiFi 6 or 5G. As a feature, it won’t get enough people to upgrade and shorten ownership cycles.

    If there was actual demand for more gigabit per second bandwidths, landline fiber rollouts would be going a lot faster, and ownership cycles for cell phones would be shorter. WiFi has long outrun cable modem or fiber service, and not many people are clamoring for that either.

    I think people are happy with regular 50 megabit per second LTE as long as they can get it. LTE-A which can get up to 250 to 500 megabit per second hasn’t been enough to get people to upgrade and keep phone cycles short. What’s 5G going to to do?

    If 5G came with unlimited data plans, actual unlimited, maybe that’ll get people to upgrade, but people aren’t upgrading for 5G in this scenario. They are upgrading for unlimited data.
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,154member
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    What, that it isn't supplying modems to Apple? The chairman of Huawei's board says that they haven't talked to Apple.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/04/16/huawei-chairman-says-apple-has-not-discussed-buying-its-5g-modems-for-iphone
    "That it isn't supplying modems to Apple"?   LOL... No, of course not.  
    Rather I was challenging the article's allegation that it's chairman's offer to sell/license its modems to Apple (and only Apple) was as the the article put it " a loud PR move" rather than a legitimate, honest offer to a U.S. company in trouble.   And, yes. their CEO did clarify the offer the next day saying that it was strictly an offer -- that they were not in talks with Apple.   If it was purely a " a loud PR move".as the article alleges, they would not have had the honesty and decency to clarify it without any prompting.






    avon b7muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 19 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,154member
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    Again, the six US intelligence agencies that briefed congress are not an arm of the administration, the same administration they have also spoken out against -- like when they said Russia meddled in the election to his benefit, and that he was full of it when rejecting their position that the Saudi Crown Prince killed US resident Jamal Khashoggi. If you believed them in those cases, you have no logical reason to not believe them now.

    https://www.fastcompany.com/40530898/six-u-s-intelligence-agencies-warn-against-using-huawei-phones

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/14/17011246/huawei-phones-safe-us-intelligence-chief-fears

    You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts. Problematic, I know.
    There is a difference between "might, maybe, possibly someitme in the future" by a handful of agencies (compounded with a smear campaign) and irrefutable fact from all agencies and repeatidly verified of a Russian attack on our country.  But, nice try at the false equivalency game.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 20 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,154member
    tmay said:
    ... Huawei saying that it would supply a modem to Apple is likely just a loud PR move by the company.

    ....
    Is there any factual basis for that statement -- other than Trump's smear campaign?
    Again, the six US intelligence agencies that briefed congress are not an arm of the administration, the same administration they have also spoken out against -- like when they said Russia meddled in the election to his benefit, and that he was full of it when rejecting their position that the Saudi Crown Prince killed US resident Jamal Khashoggi. If you believed them in those cases, you have no logical reason to not believe them now.

    https://www.fastcompany.com/40530898/six-u-s-intelligence-agencies-warn-against-using-huawei-phones

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/14/17011246/huawei-phones-safe-us-intelligence-chief-fears

    You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts. Problematic, I know.
    Ruh oh!

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3685669

    New Huawei P30 Pro found to be querying servers in China


    Even WORSE!   There's a rumor that iPhones are "querying servers in the" U.S.  !!!!   Do you believe it?  
    avon b7muthuk_vanalingam
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