Raymond James upgrades Apple stock to $250 on 2020 iPhone promise

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited July 18
Apple's use of a 5G modem in the 2020 iPhone could trigger high sales for the smartphone generation, Raymond James suggested while upgrading their rating of Apple shares, but the firm is still concerned the 2019 cycle will be "the weakest in years."




On Thursday, Raymond James advised to investors it has upgraded Apple's shares from "market perform" to "outperform," as well as setting a price target of $250 for the iPhone maker. The decision was largely driven by the potential of the 2020 iPhone, which is set to include a 5G modem.

Analysts at the company have "increased conviction in the impact of a 5G iPhone product cycle in 2020," reports CNBC, in part due to the settlement between Apple and Qualcomm that will allow the use of the latter's modems.

"Our more recent checks suggest that Apple plans to bring 5G to a wider range of iPhone models, which is different from their plan when they had intended to use Intel's modem," the firm believes.

Raymond James does temper the expectations, warning "Our call may well be early - we expect this year's iPhone cycle to be the weakest in years, and today may not be the right time to buy ahead of that weakness. But since the near-term moves are being driven by macro conditions as much as fundamentals, we've decided to upgrade now and let our clients decide the best time to execute on our idea."

Du to the introduction of 5G across many carriers around the world, and the slow influx of 5G devices, analysts are generally predicting poor sales of the 2019 iPhones, which are not expected to have 5G. It is thought consumers may wait until Apple ships models using the cellular standard before upgrading, which may affect 2019 sales.

Apple is thought to be working on its own 5G modem, but an iPhone using it may not be released until 2022 or 2023.

Aside from 5G, the 2020 iPhone is thought to include three OLED models instead of two OLED and one LCD, and is also tipped to include a smaller notch at the top of the display.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 45
    williamhwilliamh Posts: 667member
    Will people care much about 5G in 2019 or even 2020? Most of us won’t have 5G service available for some time still. 
    StrangeDaysrazorpit
  • Reply 2 of 45
    I'm not sure I care about 5G yet but I am very much waiting to get QC modems back instead of the Intel junk. 
    Soli
  • Reply 3 of 45
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 4,939member
    williamh said:
    Will people care much about 5G in 2019 or even 2020? Most of us won’t have 5G service available for some time still. 
    That feeling ("If I can't use it today, then it is worthless") is only relevant to those who only keep their phones a year -- or two at the longest.
    For the real world, they want a phone that won't obsolete itself a third or quarter of the way through its life-span.
  • Reply 4 of 45
    mubailimubaili Posts: 393member
    You would use all your data allocation is 1 hour under 5G. Apple need to become a carrier. 
    macplusplusAppleExposed
  • Reply 5 of 45
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 4,939member

    Du to the introduction of 5G across many carriers around the world, and the slow influx of 5G devices, analysts are generally predicting poor sales of the 2019 iPhones, which are not expected to have 5G. It is thought consumers may wait until Apple ships models using the cellular standard before upgrading, which may affect 2019 sales.


    Anybody planning on keeping their phone more than a year or two will, or should, fall into this category.

    On the other hand, while it is clear that Apple will not be able to include a 5G capable modem in the phones it rolls out in 2 months, there is not much basis to assume that Apple will delay that roll-out for  another 14 months -- simply to stick to some preordained schedule.

    Currently, the only technical reason for not having a 5G capable phone is being able to incorporate Qualcomm's 5G capable modem into one or more of their phones.  But that limitation is minor and short lived.   After that, the only road blocks will be administrative and marketing policies -- and Apple, historically, has trampled all over that nonsense.

    Essentially, there is NO reason, no good reason, to wait till the end of 2020 for a 2020 phone.  Apple should release a 5G capable phone in the first half of next year -- possibly the first quarter.   Meanwhile, I agree:  Their 2019 phones will take a major hit simply because they aren't going to offer much in comparison to the 2018 phones -- so why "upgrade" if the upgrade is merely in name only?   (American auto manufacturers pulled that "new and improved" scam for decades till the Japanese crushed them).
    randominternetperson
  • Reply 6 of 45
    yuck9yuck9 Posts: 73member
    mubaili said:
    You would use all your data allocation is 1 hour under 5G. Apple need to become a carrier. 
    And if Apple should become a carrier then what ? You won't be able to use your data allocation in 1 hour with 5G ? 

    5G will require a unlimited plan. The carriers know this. 
  • Reply 7 of 45
    ciacia Posts: 81member
    Not sure where this article is getting it's information, I already have a 5G iPhone. Says so up in the corner of the screen. "5Ge". Why buy another new iPhone when I already have the latest and greatest? The author is mis-informed. /s
    edited July 18 mobirdhammeroftruthGeorgeBMacrazorpit
  • Reply 8 of 45
    2old4fun2old4fun Posts: 224member
    mubaili said:
    You would use all your data allocation is 1 hour under 5G. Apple need to become a carrier. 
    Why do you say that? If it takes you all month to use your data now, it will take you all month to use the same data on 5G. But each download will be faster - not more!
    lkrupprare commentGeorgeBMacmuthuk_vanalingamseanj
  • Reply 9 of 45
    mobirdmobird Posts: 219member
    cia said:
    Not sure where this article is getting it's information, I already have a 5G iPhone. Says so up in the corner of the screen. "5Ge". Why buy another new iPhone when I already have the latest and greatest? The author is mis-informed. /s
    I'm with you there... ;)

    razorpit
  • Reply 10 of 45
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,162member
    yuck9 said:
    mubaili said:
    You would use all your data allocation is 1 hour under 5G. Apple need to become a carrier. 
    And if Apple should become a carrier then what ? You won't be able to use your data allocation in 1 hour with 5G ? 

    5G will require a unlimited plan. The carriers know this. 
    Not at all. Speed does not equate to consumption. Downloading a movie takes the same amount of data no matter the speed of the download.
    edited July 18 rare commentseanj
  • Reply 11 of 45
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,301member
    I personally know of no one who is clamoring for 5G.
    lkrupppscooter63StrangeDaysmacplusplus
  • Reply 12 of 45
    The outsized impact of 5G is going to be on home broadband.  It will be another nice upgrade for mobile but LTE speeds are already pretty good (especially with forced downresolution of movies, etc.).  Speed problems are more about signal strength than theoretic transmission speeds.  5G is not going to be meaningfully better on signal strength.

    On the other hand, for home broadband in areas not well served by hardwires, 5G could be a gamechanger.  If people are willing to install rooftop antennae (probably no big deal for many as witnessed by the huge number of directTV antennae one sees), they could finally get real broadband (50+) and the infrastructure builds are far easier than laying cable.  They move lose signal in the rain, etc. but to get real broadband even part of the time is better than none.

    Most of the problems of 5G (big chipsets, awkward antenna requirements, power consumption) fall away in a fixed installation setting.  Recall that 22% of US broadband users rely on DSL and that there are an additional 20% of homes without even DSL as "broadband".  We could see US broadband penetration grow by 10-20% once 5G is built out, with attendant growth for broadband reliant services (netflix, etc.).
  • Reply 13 of 45

    Du to the introduction of 5G across many carriers around the world, and the slow influx of 5G devices, analysts are generally predicting poor sales of the 2019 iPhones, which are not expected to have 5G. It is thought consumers may wait until Apple ships models using the cellular standard before upgrading, which may affect 2019 sales.


    Anybody planning on keeping their phone more than a year or two will, or should, fall into this category.

    On the other hand, while it is clear that Apple will not be able to include a 5G capable modem in the phones it rolls out in 2 months, there is not much basis to assume that Apple will delay that roll-out for  another 14 months -- simply to stick to some preordained schedule.

    Currently, the only technical reason for not having a 5G capable phone is being able to incorporate Qualcomm's 5G capable modem into one or more of their phones.  But that limitation is minor and short lived.   After that, the only road blocks will be administrative and marketing policies -- and Apple, historically, has trampled all over that nonsense.

    Essentially, there is NO reason, no good reason, to wait till the end of 2020 for a 2020 phone.  Apple should release a 5G capable phone in the first half of next year -- possibly the first quarter.   Meanwhile, I agree:  Their 2019 phones will take a major hit simply because they aren't going to offer much in comparison to the 2018 phones -- so why "upgrade" if the upgrade is merely in name only?   (American auto manufacturers pulled that "new and improved" scam for decades till the Japanese crushed them).
    I don’t believe that you will have a full nationwide rollout of 5G by mid year next year. 

    Apple was never first to new cellular technology.

    Remember when pundits said the iphone 4S was going to be a disappointment because it didn’t support 4G LTE and in the first 3 days of its release sold 4 million phones. 

    Another advantage of not being first is a better position for customers not paying for the privilege of being early adopters of new wireless technology. 

    With the hesitation of using Chinese based companies that make the 5G network equipment, I believe that the rollout is going to take even longer than before. 
    pscooter63StrangeDaysSpamSandwichAppleExposed
  • Reply 14 of 45
    SoliSoli Posts: 9,176member
    mubaili said:
    You would use all your data allocation is 1 hour under 5G. Apple need to become a carrier. 
    The same thing gets said with every marketable cellular generation change and yet most are doing just fine with a few a handful of GiB per month. If that happened with 4G and there is a theoretical max of 300 Mbips, I think that would be over 94,000 GiB per month.

    Personally, the only reason I'd want 5G is if the radios worked better over a longer range and through objects, as well as using less overall power by being able to grab data and then power down more quickly, but none of that seems to be the case.
    GeorgeBMacrazorpit
  • Reply 15 of 45
    2old4fun said:
    mubaili said:
    You would use all your data allocation is 1 hour under 5G. Apple need to become a carrier. 
    Why do you say that? If it takes you all month to use your data now, it will take you all month to use the same data on 5G. But each download will be faster - not more!
    @mubaili is probably saying that you would use your data allocation in 1 hour in reference to streaming.  He's referencing data use over time, not just a certain amount of data.  You are correct about a download, but that same sentiment does not apply to streaming.  Streaming is a big focus for a lot of companies these days.  Most people stream over WiFi so it shouldn't be that big of a deal.  But I'd bet good money we're going to get the stories of the 5G first adopter who "didn't realize" they'd burn through their data allotment while streaming using 5G.  "They just said the 5G was faster.  They didn't say I would use my data quicker." - most likely quote to be used by angry user relegated to 2G speeds for the rest of the month... with it only being the 3rd of the month. :D
    edited July 18 macplusplusmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 16 of 45
    Soli said: 
    Personally, the only reason I'd want 5G is if the radios worked better over a longer range and through objects, as well as using less overall power by being able to grab data and then power down more quickly, but none of that seems to be the case.
    Are you sure?  Everything I've read about 5G says the exact opposite.  5G depends on high frequency waves.  The higher the frequency, the shorter the wave and the more issues it has with obstructions like walls and trees.  It's one of the reasons more 5G cells have to be dispersed in a given environment.  Afaik, 5G radios do not work over long distances at all.  I'd love any info that says differently.

    edit: Completely misread your comment.  As JanNL pointed out, you were saying these are the things you'd like from 5G.  Apologies.
    edited July 18 Soli
  • Reply 17 of 45
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 8,244member
    williamh said:
    Will people care much about 5G in 2019 or even 2020? Most of us won’t have 5G service available for some time still. 
    That feeling ("If I can't use it today, then it is worthless") is only relevant to those who only keep their phones a year -- or two at the longest.
    For the real world, they want a phone that won't obsolete itself a third or quarter of the way through its life-span.
    They don’t become obsolete just because faster becomes available. That’s absurd. In that case lower resolution monitors are “obsolete” because 8k exists somewhere. Or slower CPUs since faster exist. Pfft. Nope. If they continue to do their job and are serviceable, they are not obsolete.

    Dictionary: “no longer produced or used”. Neither is true when there is simply more/faster/better available. 
    macpluspluslkruppAppleExposed
  • Reply 18 of 45
    JanNLJanNL Posts: 269member
    Soli said: 
    Personally, the only reason I'd want 5G is if the radios worked better over a longer range and through objects, as well as using less overall power by being able to grab data and then power down more quickly, but none of that seems to be the case.
    Are you sure?  Everything I've read about 5G says the exact opposite.  5G depends on high frequency waves.  The higher the frequency, the shorter the wave and the more issues it has with obstructions like walls and trees.  It's one of the reasons more 5G cells have to be dispersed in a given environment.  Afaik, 5G radios do not work over long distances at all.  I'd love any info that says differently.
    Look how Soli ends... "but none of that seems to be the case."
    edited July 18 Soli1STnTENDERBITS
  • Reply 19 of 45
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 8,244member


    Du to the introduction of 5G across many carriers around the world, and the slow influx of 5G devices, analysts are generally predicting poor sales of the 2019 iPhones, which are not expected to have 5G. It is thought consumers may wait until Apple ships models using the cellular standard before upgrading, which may affect 2019 sales.


    Essentially, there is NO reason, no good reason, to wait till the end of 2020 for a 2020 phone.  Apple should release a 5G capable phone in the first half of next year -- possibly the first quarter.   Meanwhile, I agree:  Their 2019 phones will take a major hit simply because they aren't going to offer much in comparison to the 2018 phones -- so why "upgrade" if the upgrade is merely in name only?   (American auto manufacturers pulled that "new and improved" scam for decades till the Japanese crushed them).
    Cant believe I have to still explain this to people... The delta of an annual improvement from the model of a year prior isn’t very important. Normals don’t upgrade phones every single year, as there is often little reason to. Techies and phone nerds like to, but that doesn’t represent normal. Normals upgrade when they need a new phone, and for that reason it’s important that the current-model do its job well. iPhone does that, every single year. It also gets incrementally better, which, over time, produces a dramatic delta compared to a much older model. 

    Gruber wrote about this almost a decade ago. Read up.


    ...iterative product development is the name of the game. It’s how we got from the original iPhone/Mac/Watch/whatever to the current versions, or iterations.

    Can’t believe some people still fail to grasp this. 

    More, you’re getting hung up on modems or shell design while ignoring the true annual improvements — the A-series processors. It is the device’s processing ability which enables iOS to take on more jobs to do, and do them very well. In the end it’s the UX and jobs to be done that normals need, and iPhone doesn’t fail to deliver, despite what the “speeds & feeds” spec worshippers claim.
    edited July 18 macplusplusrazorpit
  • Reply 20 of 45
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 8,244member

    I personally know of no one who is clamoring for 5G.
    Oh but it’s very big in Spain! lol
    macplusplus
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