Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

Posted:
in General Discussion
Apple's suppliers are reportedly in the process of making 75 million of the September 2019 'iPhone 11' range, which is approximately the same as orders for the 2018 models.




That 75 million production order is approximately the same as it was for the 2018 family that included the iPhone XR, iPhone XS, and iPhone XS Max at launch. Apple is apparently anticipating that demand will remain steady, at least in the first few months, despite an overall fall in smartphone demand and the ongoing trade disputes between the US and China.

According to Bloomberg, suppliers in Asia are planning for 75 million devices, and to have the capacity to go to 80 million if required. The figures, from unnamed sources in the supply chain, are for all three of the expected new iPhone models.

Foxconn, in particular, is reported to be increasing its workforce in Shenzen. It is also believed to be paying staff around 10% more this year in order to ensure having enough people to make the devices.

That's despite Foxconn's founder urging Apple to move its iPhone production away from China over both rising labor costs and the US/China trade tensions.

The 75 million would only be for the launch period of the device, spanning September, October, and some of November. Apple provides estimated order quantities up front to device manufacturers, and adjusts them as device demand peaks and wanes, as well as tailoring them for consumer demand of a particular model.

That will be in part because of how sales of the iPhone have declined and also because of persistent rumors that the 2020 iPhones will feature major updates including 5G and possibly an iPad-style ProMotion display.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 22
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,180member
    All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

    A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

    There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

    On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

    https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

    For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
    muthuk_vanalingamchemengin1llama
  • Reply 2 of 22
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
    avon b7 said:
    All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

    A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

    There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

    On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

    https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

    For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
    "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

    Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

    Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

    This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

    "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
    Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
      Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
      The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
      racerhomie3AppleExposedBart Ymuthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobrajony0
    • Reply 3 of 22
      avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,180member
      tmay said:
      avon b7 said:
      All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

      A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

      There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

      On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

      https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

      For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
      "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

      Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

      Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

      https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

      This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

      "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
      Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
        Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
        The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
        Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

        'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

        Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
        chemengin1AppleExposed
      • Reply 4 of 22
        tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
        avon b7 said:
        tmay said:
        avon b7 said:
        All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

        A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

        There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

        On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

        https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

        For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
        "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

        Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

        Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

        https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

        This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

        "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
        Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
          Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
          The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
          Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

          'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

          Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
          Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

          Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
          racerhomie3AppleExposedwatto_cobra
        • Reply 5 of 22
          avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,180member
          tmay said:
          avon b7 said:
          tmay said:
          avon b7 said:
          All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

          A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

          There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

          On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

          https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

          For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
          "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

          Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

          Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

          https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

          This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

          "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
          Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
            Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
            The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
            Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

            'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

            Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
            Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

            Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
            But why bring that aspect into this story?

            It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

            Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
            chemengin1muthuk_vanalingam
          • Reply 6 of 22
            StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 8,541member
            Headline states it as fact, despite no release or confirmation of these rumors, which are reported by (ahem) Bloomberg. The source AI is re-running a story on the front page about how unreliable they are. 

            In the name of accuracy, it should be "Bloomberg: Apple expects..."
            edited July 25 tmayAppleExposedwatto_cobra
          • Reply 7 of 22
            MplsPMplsP Posts: 1,647member
            This report is probably about as accurate as any of the others and is pretty typical. Apple (and pretty much all manufacturers) are typically quiet about such numbers, leading people to try and glean information from supply chain info, etc. 

            I suspect Avon was right. With any given hardware release, there is a certain amount of 'guaranteed' initial sales - hardware reviewers, people who upgrade every year, etc. The real question is the number of sustained sales. Depending what the features are, those could well continue to be lackluster, for the same reasons smartphone sales have been rather cool in general the last couple of years. 5G anticipation could keep things down a bit, too. Of course, that's making plans based on rumors based on promises of an un-proven technology with extremely limited availability. But hey, that's what people do, right?
            muthuk_vanalingam
          • Reply 8 of 22
            tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
            MplsP said:
            This report is probably about as accurate as any of the others and is pretty typical. Apple (and pretty much all manufacturers) are typically quiet about such numbers, leading people to try and glean information from supply chain info, etc. 

            I suspect Avon was right. With any given hardware release, there is a certain amount of 'guaranteed' initial sales - hardware reviewers, people who upgrade every year, etc. The real question is the number of sustained sales. Depending what the features are, those could well continue to be lackluster, for the same reasons smartphone sales have been rather cool in general the last couple of years. 5G anticipation could keep things down a bit, too. Of course, that's making plans based on rumors based on promises of an un-proven technology with extremely limited availability. But hey, that's what people do, right?

            "I've already read many investor notes on this subject and yes, iPhone sales will remain static in the 190-210 million range annually for the foreseeable future. But the upside for services as a large revenue contributor continues to get missed by most analysts."

            https://twitter.com/BenBajarin

            He has a pretty good track record on Apple.
            Bart Ywatto_cobra
          • Reply 9 of 22
            rain22rain22 Posts: 43member
            Prices need to come down. Software augmentation isn’t going to be enough of a draw to justify $2000 phones going forward. In general, people mostly want a good camera, long battery, and good price for quality. Now that Apple can’t throttle people’s phones to persuade upgrades - expect them to cut lifespan of OS upgrades as a mechanism - like they are doing with the 6’s. This is going to grow old fast on the consumer and make people think twice about the cost. People don’t buy new computers every 2 years - and Apple is charging computer prices for phones now.
            chemengin1muthuk_vanalingam
          • Reply 10 of 22
            tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
            avon b7 said:
            tmay said:
            avon b7 said:
            tmay said:
            avon b7 said:
            All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

            A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

            There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

            On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

            https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

            For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
            "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

            Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

            Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

            https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

            This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

            "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
            Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
              Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
              The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
              Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

              'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

              Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
              Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

              Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
              But why bring that aspect into this story?

              It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

              Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
              I'll post another, more general "political" link;

              https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

              "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

              He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

              watto_cobra
            • Reply 11 of 22
              avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,180member
              tmay said:
              avon b7 said:
              tmay said:
              avon b7 said:
              tmay said:
              avon b7 said:
              All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

              A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

              There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

              On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

              https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

              For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
              "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

              Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

              Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

              https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

              This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

              "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
              Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
                Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
                The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
                Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

                'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

                Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
                Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

                Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
                But why bring that aspect into this story?

                It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

                Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
                I'll post another, more general "political" link;

                https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

                "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

                He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

                Why insist? It's still irrelevant to the thread. 

                Tell me if you think the so called 'peak iPhone' has come and gone or if there is still room for a big shift upwards. Are these supposed iPhone goals conservative or unreasonably high? Tell me if you think prices will be adjusted downwards this September? Tell me if Samsung and Huawei have kept iPhone sales from increasing? Tell me if you think the lack of 5G will have a negative impact on sales. Tell me if you think potential upgraders with enough disposable income (especially iPhone X users on a two year cycle) could skip the 2019 phones. Tell me if you think those who struggle to reach iPhone price points and have little option but to go for older models, resent the fact that they don't have access to 'new' iPhones with their corresponding new designs.

                If want to unnecessarily plunk politics somewhere, better in an appropriate thread. I'll be the first to admit that Trump, China and Huawei are all tangled up and sometimes it isn't possible to avoid touching on the political side but I can't see much justification in this particular thread.
                chemengin1muthuk_vanalingam
              • Reply 12 of 22
                tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
                avon b7 said:
                tmay said:
                avon b7 said:
                tmay said:
                avon b7 said:
                tmay said:
                avon b7 said:
                All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

                A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

                There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

                On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

                https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

                For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
                "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

                Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

                Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

                https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

                This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

                "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
                Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
                  Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
                  The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
                  Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

                  'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

                  Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
                  Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

                  Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
                  But why bring that aspect into this story?

                  It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

                  Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
                  I'll post another, more general "political" link;

                  https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

                  "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

                  He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

                  Why insist? It's still irrelevant to the thread. 

                  Tell me if you think the so called 'peak iPhone' has come and gone or if there is still room for a big shift upwards. Are these supposed iPhone goals conservative or unreasonably high? Tell me if you think prices will be adjusted downwards this September? Tell me if Samsung and Huawei have kept iPhone sales from increasing? Tell me if you think the lack of 5G will have a negative impact on sales. Tell me if you think potential upgraders with enough disposable income (especially iPhone X users on a two year cycle) could skip the 2019 phones. Tell me if you think those who struggle to reach iPhone price points and have little option but to go for older models, resent the fact that they don't have access to 'new' iPhones with their corresponding new designs.

                  If want to unnecessarily plunk politics somewhere, better in an appropriate thread. I'll be the first to admit that Trump, China and Huawei are all tangled up and sometimes it isn't possible to avoid touching on the political side but I can't see much justification in this particular thread.
                  ASP has relevance to your questions, as much as you are in denial of that.

                  Whether Apple lowers its margins or creates a lower entry price point, I can't know, and I doubt that lack of 5G will lower sales this year below 180 Million, but if it does, one would expect a commensurate increase next year. I have stated that I expect 120 million of the new model in sales for next year, starting this September, based on the data I have seen for past model sales breakdown, ie, about 2/3 of iPhone unit sales are the current years models.

                  Apple's iPhone user base continues to grow, and while Samsung and Huawei sell more phones, they do so at a at much lower ASP, and Apple continues to generate much more revenue and profit from its iPhone lineup than all of the Android OS devices makers combined. Sure, it isn't in the 90% range, like it was in the past, but for a mature product line, I'm not seeing any crisis from Apple not competing in the mid and low range. 

                  As for the politics, I am just pointing out that Huawei isn't likely to get the reprieve from Trump and the U.S. Government that you seem to be expecting, and I have not problem seeing this as relevant to the story.
                  edited July 25 watto_cobra
                • Reply 13 of 22
                  kkqd1337kkqd1337 Posts: 218member
                  the iPhone will obviously continue to sell well for the foreseeable future.

                  but the 11 does seem more like an XS+.

                  One of the least interesting updates in a while. 
                • Reply 14 of 22
                  WLeeWLee Posts: 16unconfirmed, member
                  The phones for this year are not looking great. They are the same phone for the third year and the back is not going down well with...anyone really. There is a way to turn this in apples favour - drop the prices! Take $100 off each phone and push them into more competitive spaces. This will make them a far better option for people considering upgrading as they will ‘feel’ like more value and a good option (even though all these prices for flagships are absurd). This won’t hurt Apple much as it will sell more and they won’t have to deal with more coverage of dropping sales (potentially). 
                • Reply 15 of 22
                  AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,498unconfirmed, member
                  iPhone XS didn't sell good so Apple is doomed next year!!!!!!!!!!123

                  /s
                  watto_cobra
                • Reply 16 of 22
                  AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,498unconfirmed, member
                  kkqd1337 said:

                  but the 11 does seem more like an XS+.

                  One of the least interesting updates in a while. 
                  It always blows my mind how many AI posters have working units of unannounced iPhones.

                  No wonder this site is called AppleINSIDER!

                  tmay said:
                  avon b7 said:
                  tmay said:
                  avon b7 said:
                  tmay said:
                  avon b7 said:
                  tmay said:
                  avon b7 said:
                  All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

                  A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

                  There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

                  On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

                  https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

                  For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
                  "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

                  Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

                  Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

                  https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

                  This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

                  "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
                  Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
                    Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
                    The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
                    Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

                    'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

                    Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
                    Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

                    Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
                    But why bring that aspect into this story?

                    It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

                    Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
                    I'll post another, more general "political" link;

                    https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

                    "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

                    He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

                    Why insist? It's still irrelevant to the thread. 

                    Tell me if you think the so called 'peak iPhone' has come and gone or if there is still room for a big shift upwards. Are these supposed iPhone goals conservative or unreasonably high? Tell me if you think prices will be adjusted downwards this September? Tell me if Samsung and Huawei have kept iPhone sales from increasing? Tell me if you think the lack of 5G will have a negative impact on sales. Tell me if you think potential upgraders with enough disposable income (especially iPhone X users on a two year cycle) could skip the 2019 phones. Tell me if you think those who struggle to reach iPhone price points and have little option but to go for older models, resent the fact that they don't have access to 'new' iPhones with their corresponding new designs.

                    If want to unnecessarily plunk politics somewhere, better in an appropriate thread. I'll be the first to admit that Trump, China and Huawei are all tangled up and sometimes it isn't possible to avoid touching on the political side but I can't see much justification in this particular thread.
                    ASP has relevance to your questions, as much as you are in denial of that.

                    Whether Apple lowers its margins or creates a lower entry price point, I can't know, and I doubt that lack of 5G will lower sales this year below 180 Million, but if it does, one would expect a commensurate increase next year. I have stated that I expect 120 million of the new model in sales for next year, starting this September, based on the data I have seen for past model sales breakdown, ie, about 2/3 of iPhone unit sales are the current years models.

                    Apple's iPhone user base continues to grow, and while Samsung and Huawei sell more phones, they do so at a at much lower ASP, and Apple continues to generate much more revenue and profit from its iPhone lineup than all of the Android OS devices makers combined. Sure, it isn't in the 90% range, like it was in the past, but for a mature product line, I'm not seeing any crisis from Apple not competing in the mid and low range. 

                    As for the politics, I am just pointing out that Huawei isn't likely to get the reprieve from Trump and the U.S. Government that you seem to be expecting, and I have not problem seeing this as relevant to the story.


                    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures?

                    WLee said:
                    The phones for this year are not looking great. They are the same phone for the third year and the back is not going down well with...anyone really. There is a way to turn this in apples favour - drop the prices! Take $100 off each phone and push them into more competitive spaces. This will make them a far better option for people considering upgrading as they will ‘feel’ like more value and a good option (even though all these prices for flagships are absurd). This won’t hurt Apple much as it will sell more and they won’t have to deal with more coverage of dropping sales (potentially). 

                    Oh great. The "Apple releases the same phone every year!" meme returns.
                    watto_cobra
                  • Reply 17 of 22
                    tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
                    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
                    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

                    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



                    watto_cobra
                  • Reply 18 of 22
                    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,180member
                    tmay said:
                    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
                    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

                    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



                    Consolidation is already underway although Android device consolidation might not help Apple that much, especially as the two Android beneficiaries would see even more economies of scale on already vast portfolios. 
                    muthuk_vanalingam
                  • Reply 19 of 22
                    tmaytmay Posts: 3,935member
                    avon b7 said:
                    tmay said:
                    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
                    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

                    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



                    Consolidation is already underway although Android device consolidation might not help Apple that much, especially as the two Android beneficiaries would see even more economies of scale on already vast portfolios. 
                    ...and Apple will still be making the bulk of the profits with a mere three current models. Perhaps Apple has a better understanding of the benefits of economies of scale than Huawei.
                    watto_cobra
                  • Reply 20 of 22
                    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,180member
                    tmay said:
                    avon b7 said:
                    tmay said:
                    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
                    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

                    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



                    Consolidation is already underway although Android device consolidation might not help Apple that much, especially as the two Android beneficiaries would see even more economies of scale on already vast portfolios. 
                    ...and Apple will still be making the bulk of the profits with a mere three current models. Perhaps Apple has a better understanding of the benefits of economies of scale than Huawei.
                    If Apple is struggling today with competition from the likes of Huawei and Samsung, any large swing in favour of those two in terms of economies of scale will simply accentuate the problem.

                    If Apple does eventually decide to reduce pricing this year, obviously iPhone revenue per phone will drop. To maintain margins, Apple might have to reduce costs but what about economies of scale and other associated advantages? Component negotiations, etc. Their position will weaken. Obviously the reason for any price drop will be to stimulate sales, but what if that doesn't happen?

                    As for having the bulk of the profits, well you would have to define what you consider 'the bulk' because 51% wouldn't be saying much when I've already seen Apple at an estimated 60% (and those were better times). Also, if those profits were all that mattered, Apple wouldn't consider reducing prices. Especially as so many people here claim marketshare isn't an Apple goal.

                    Strange, as Apple still needs critical mass (a threshold of iPhone sales) to keep its economies of sale looking healthy. Without it, things like the A series SoCs become more expensive to produce, which in turn, would impact prices. Look no further at the financial impact of the Samsung display 'penalty'.

                    I'm generalising of course but the first paragraph of this post is undeniable.


                    muthuk_vanalingam
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