Tim Cook sees Apple as 'fundamentally strong' in face of coronavirus threat

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited February 2020
The coronavirus is only a "temporary condition" to deal with, Apple CEO Tim Cook suggests, but while he is uncertain about how it will affect the quarter's finances, he still believes Apple is "fundamentally strong" and will weather the storm.

Tim Cook being interviewed by FOX Business Network's Susan Li
Tim Cook being interviewed by Fox Business Network's Susan Li


In an interview recorded on Thursday during his visit to Birmingham, Alabama, where he helped launch the Ed Farm education initiative, Apple CEO Tim Cook covered a range of topics, from the global impact of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic and its effect on Apple, to education.

Speaking to Fox Business Network's Susan Li, an except of Cook's interview dealing with the coronavirus was released on Thursday, where he said China was "getting the Coronavirus under control." In the excerpt, Cook brought up how factories are starting to reopen in the country, with production being in the "third phase in getting back to normal" as well as being "in phase three of the ramp mode."

In terms of recovery, Apple has reopened most of its retail outlets in China, albeit with restrictions, while suppliers like Foxconn are paying workers extra to get back to the plants and to work, in a bid to regain lost production time.

In the extended interview, Cook's coronavirus commentary turned to how long to expect the effects of the virus to be felt by the iPhone maker. "Things are going pretty much like they thought they would go there in terms of bringing things back," said Cook, "and so it'll take some time, but by and large we think this is a temporary condition, not a long-term kind of thing. Apple is fundamentally strong, and that's how I see it."

When asked if he anticipates disruption into the second quarter, Cook replied by saying the company's currently in its second quarter, but he doesn't know the answer to that yet. "We're still in February, and there's reason for optimism, but we'll see," he suggests.

The second quarter query is important, as Apple warned it had revised downward the forecast due to the impact of the coronavirus, its second-such revenue warning in two years.

"I think the focus in the last few days has turned off of China onto Korea and Italy, so I think it's very important to see what happens there, and whether something new comes out of that," he proposed. "Our supply chain is relatively more important in China, but we have great businesses in Korea, we have suppliers in Korea, suppliers in Italy, and a great business there as well. So we need to see as that unfolds."

The Stock Market

Moving to the stock market's volatility of recent days, Cook admitted he doesn't "really focus on the short term gyrations of the market," and that he works with a long-term view.

"I see no long term difference between what was happening four weeks ago versus what's happening today," Cook advised. "And so the market takes time to recognize that and so forth, and it'll do what it's going to do. And I'm the last person to be able to predict it. But I would -- you know, for me I look through that, look through the noise and -- and concentrate on the future. And the future looks very bright."

The share repurchase plan was suggested by the interviewer, which Cook picked up on, admitting "everybody knows that we're buying" despite not wishing to announce anything on air.

China's Supply Chain

Asked about bringing elements of the supply chain to the United States or more out of China, Cook was keen to point out Apple products are "truly global products," with some elements produced in the US that are served to the world.

"so what will happen to the supply chain as we look back on this, I wouldn't want to say at this point, because the question for us always is what kind of resilience did the supply chain have" the architect of Apple's current supply chain states. "It's not was there a problem, because there will always be unpredictable things that come up, but as you know from following us, we've worked through earthquakes, tornados, fires, floods, tsunamis, SARS."

The operational teem is "very deep at working through these" according to Cook, and so the question is always whether there is resilience to the events or not, and if changes need to be made. "My perspective sitting here today is that if there are changes, you're talking about adjusting some knobs, not some sort of wholesale fundamental change."

Pressed on potentially moving to lower-cost countries such as Vietnam or Cambodia, Cook defends the use of China and the charge that "China's not cheap anymore" by suggesting there used to be that perspective, "but it hasn't been for a long time."

Cost is only one factor to Apple. "We're also fixated on quality. And we're focused on time to market, and the speed, and the depth of engineering in the different places. And so somebody would have to meet all of those in order for us to do something."

India Retail

The interview briefly touched on Apple's first India retail outlet, which will open by the year 2021.

I'm excited about that, because I see India as a huge opportunity for us. For years we could not enter there unless we entered there with a partner, into retail, and we did not want to do that, you know? We want to maintain control over our brand and so forth.

But the administration worked on this with the Indian government, and that change has been made. And so we are very, very positive about entering in there on online this year and retail next year.

US Workforce and Policy

Turning the attention to Cook's working relationship with President Donald Trump, the interviewer highlighted the differences between the two men, but asked how the relationship works.

"Well there are differences, there's no doubt about that," Cook admits, "but you look for intersections. And I care a lot about creating jobs, and I think the president does as well. I care a lot about training the workforce for the future, and the administration is really focused on this as well."

Training the workforce is a "major challenge" for the US to solve. Cook continued "we have to make sure our education is preparing people for the disruption and the creation. And I think if we do that we can flourish in this environment, but if we don't, we leave a lot of people behind. And that should be unacceptable for all of us."

The creation of jobs and education "should be non-partisan," with Apple "very focused on policy, not politics, that probably helps." Cook suggests Apple is "probably the most nonpolitical company out there. We don't give to political campaigns, candidate campaigns, and so forth. But we do focus on policy, because we want to be a contributing citizen of the United States and to help the country every way we can."

Speaking about criticism from trying to engage with the White House, Cook has the perspective that engagement is always best.

"Because just simply standing on the sideline and yelling doesn't accomplish anything but polarization," spoke Cook. "And so I want to suit up and play a role, and if I disagree on something, I want to try to influence it. If I agree on something, I want to try to amplify and figure out a way that I can help in some way and be a great citizen of the country."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 22
    One great CEO.
    cwingravradarthekatDogpersonlolliverBart Yjony0
  • Reply 2 of 22
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,823moderator
    And a great human.  His approach is always from
    a positive perspective.  How can we make this better?  Not, what’s wrong and who can we blame.   For a few years I worked under a CEO with the same attributes; Ed Mallon, until his and my retirement.  
    DogpersonGeorgeBMaclolliverBart Yjony0
  • Reply 3 of 22
    ivanhivanh Posts: 597member
    Underestimating the coronavirus threat, like many other great leaders in the world, may put many people at very high and unnecessary risk which is life threatening.

    Recent evidence found that the virus may stay for 47 (45?) days on metal.  How much time is needed to pass an iPhone from a Foxconn assembly factory in China to the hand of a consumer? The iPhone logistic could be a big risk spreading the virus to millions of people in the world unnoticed. Is Tim prepared to take up this health & safety responsibility?
    edited February 2020
  • Reply 4 of 22
    ivanh said:
    Underestimating the coronavirus threat, like many other great leaders in the world, may put many people at very high and unnecessary risk which is life threatening.

    Recent evidence found that the virus may stay for 47 (45?) days on metal.  How much time is needed to pass an iPhone from a Foxconn assembly factory in China to the hand of a consumer? The iPhone logistic could be a big risk spreading the virus to millions of people in the world unnoticed. Is Tim prepared to take up this health & safety responsibility?
    You have any sources on that? I just read about a study published the other day on 22 other similar coronaviruses and all of them only lived on surfaces for 9 days at room temperature. We obviously don't know enough about coronavirus yet, but I think it's extremely unlikely it can live on any surface for 40 plus days. 
    lolliver
  • Reply 5 of 22
    ivanh said:
    Underestimating the coronavirus threat, like many other great leaders in the world, may put many people at very high and unnecessary risk which is life threatening.

    Recent evidence found that the virus may stay for 47 (45?) days on metal.  How much time is needed to pass an iPhone from a Foxconn assembly factory in China to the hand of a consumer? The iPhone logistic could be a big risk spreading the virus to millions of people in the world unnoticed. Is Tim prepared to take up this health & safety responsibility?
    You have any sources on that? I just read about a study published the other day on 22 other similar coronaviruses and all of them only lived on surfaces for 9 days at room temperature. We obviously don't know enough about coronavirus yet, but I think it's extremely unlikely it can live on any surface for 40 plus days. 
    All they need to do is expose the finished devices to UV sterilization to kill the virus. What’s more deadly is the public place you go to get your device. That is where you can be exposed to healthy carriers and not know it. 
    lolliverBart Yjony0
  • Reply 6 of 22
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.
    lolliverBart Y
  • Reply 7 of 22
    lukeilukei Posts: 379member
    ivanh said:
    Underestimating the coronavirus threat, like many other great leaders in the world, may put many people at very high and unnecessary risk which is life threatening.

    Recent evidence found that the virus may stay for 47 (45?) days on metal.  How much time is needed to pass an iPhone from a Foxconn assembly factory in China to the hand of a consumer? The iPhone logistic could be a big risk spreading the virus to millions of people in the world unnoticed. Is Tim prepared to take up this health & safety responsibility?
    Panic!!!!
  • Reply 8 of 22
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    And a great human.  His approach is always from
    a positive perspective.  How can we make this better?  Not, what’s wrong and who can we blame.   For a few years I worked under a CEO with the same attributes; Ed Mallon, until his and my retirement.  

    I was fortunate to work for an IT company that did both:   they asked "what went wrong" as well as "how can it be done better".
    But still, it maintained your main point that it wasn't playing the blame game or finger pointing.   Instead, it was done impartially to improve the overall performance of the organization.  They did it after every major project and called it a "post mortem".

    Actually, they had an informal but highly effective method of discouraging finger pointing:   If a person pointed their finger to criticize the performance of another employee they were often given that employee's job to do -- without any decrease in their own responsibilities or increase in pay or job rank.    It was more like:  "OK, if you think you can do it better, go ahead.   It's yours"  At which point they would go get themselves a cup of coffee leaving the complainer to wonder why it was that he had complained.  It worked well.  Very well.
    Bart Yjony0
  • Reply 9 of 22
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    edited February 2020
  • Reply 10 of 22
    red oakred oak Posts: 1,077member
    That was a very insightful interview, including Tim's tone.   I encourage everyone to watch it.  10 mins long 

    He seems very centered and confident about the situation 
    lolliverBart Y
  • Reply 11 of 22
    geekmeegeekmee Posts: 629member
    This shall pass too... And I would be confident too about returning to a 98% customer satisfaction rating.
    edited March 2020
  • Reply 12 of 22
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,243member
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?

    China has lost 1/3 or more of its manufacturing output in the last 6 weeks from shutdowns, and while there is some movement to reopen factories, it is ramping slowly. Work at home isn't going to solve that. Given that the World now sees that putting all of your eggs is one basket is a failed strategy, most foreign companies in China will be looking to disperse at least some of their current production to other countries.

    I would also note that many Chinese consumers have not been working for those six weeks, and likely won't for many weeks beyond that, given reports are that there are up to 700 million people are in a containment of some kind. That doesn't bode well for consumer consumption, so expect that all consumer electronic sales in China will be down massively for the next 6 months and beyond.

    Education at home for a child whose parents have to work isn't the panacea that you make it out to be. Even closing the schools for a few weeks due to an epidemic containment strategy creates the necessity that parents may have to find expensive childcare, if they in fact they are still working at that point.

    Another risk from an epidemic of COVID-19 beyond hospitalization and victim fatalities  is that many people in the U.S. live paycheck to paycheck and don't have the savings or credit ability to financially survive any containment strategy without working, nor do many of these same workers have good healthcare, to cover the costs if they do have to be treated for COVID-19. 

    From an economic standpoint, a COVID-19 epidemic could be a precursor to a recession, yet another disruption to our lives.
  • Reply 13 of 22
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...

    But, despite month's of warning, we might get hit hard since we are totally unprepared with almost no testing kits or protective gear, no actual plans on quaratines and our CDC gutted.  But don't worry too much - Mike Pence, the anti-science guy, will invoke Jesus and make it all go away -- just as soon as the Fed lowers rates - again.

    Added:   I just read that Pence reports that "the kit's in the mail".    But he's only talking about 15,000.  China has gone through over 300,000 in the last several weeks.   Pence has a LOT of catching up to do.  There are only two ways to contain this virus:  either mass restrictions and quarantines or early testing to identify infected carriers.   We are doing neither.



    edited March 2020
  • Reply 14 of 22
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,243member
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.
    edited March 2020
  • Reply 15 of 22
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.

    As even your own figures show:
    China's GDP:  6+
    U.S. GDP:   Barely 2
    ...  That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.

    Yes, there was a brief dip -- the Shanghai dropped from 3100 to 2750 before popping back up to almost 3050.  But, now its starting to drop again to 3,000 as the world's economy faulters.

    As your Bloomberg figures show:  China is scheduled to over take the U.S. as the world's leading economy (and already has as the leading trading nation).   That's why Trump's primary goal in his battles with China was not jobs but Wall Street access to Chinese markets.  Once he got that he started defending China and, coincidentally, the HongKong riots died down too.   There are still some China haters on the far right beating the drums but they aren't getting a lot of love from Trump these days.   He got what he wanted and cricket chirping doesn't bother him.
    edited March 2020
  • Reply 16 of 22
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,243member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.

    As even your own figures show:
    China's GDP:  6+
    U.S. GDP:   Barely 2
    ...  That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.

    Yes, there was a brief dip -- the Shanghai dropped from 3100 to 2750 before popping back up to almost 3050.  But, now its starting to drop again to 3,000 as the world's economy faulters.

    As your Bloomberg figures show:  China is scheduled to over take the U.S. as the world's leading economy (and already has as the leading trading nation).   That's why Trump's primary goal in his battles with China was not jobs but Wall Street access to Chinese markets.  Once he got that he started defending China and, coincidentally, the HongKong riots died down too.   There are still some China haters on the far right beating the drums but they aren't getting a lot of love from Trump these days.   He got what he wanted and cricket chirping doesn't bother him.
    6+ is the supposed GDP growth rate, but no one believes it anymore as China's growth has been slowing down as it matures. GDP is how economies are measured and as I stated, the U.S. still leads. The outbreak of Coronavirus has slowed the manufacturing output by 1/3 and shipping to the U.S., as an example has dropped by at least 25%. China has taken an economic beating from the virus.

    China's Stock market isn't representative of the actual production losses that have happened, hence why I posted the NASA images showing Nitrous Oxide pollutants falling, an indicator that less fossil fuel is being burned.

    The Honk Kong riots weren't related to Trump; it was the population resisting the removal of their freedoms, and they are still ongoing, having only slowed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3053025/hong-kong-protests-riot-police-fire-tear-gas-pepper-spray

    Hong Kong police arrest 115 after biggest outbreak of protest violence since coronavirus crisis

    • Government warns resurgence of violence, with city in throes of public health crisis, poses major threat to the economy
    • Chaos erupts over the weekend in Kowloon as police and protesters trade tear gas, petrol bombs, while officer draws firearm
    Yet again, you are an apologist for the CCP.
  • Reply 17 of 22
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.

    As even your own figures show:
    China's GDP:  6+
    U.S. GDP:   Barely 2
    ...  That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.
    I'm guessing those numbers are for growth?  That's not how economies are measured, it's how growth and health of economies are measured, and is subject to caveats.  GDP or GDP per Capita are how economies are measured, and the USA is well ahead on both measures.
  • Reply 18 of 22
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.

    As even your own figures show:
    China's GDP:  6+
    U.S. GDP:   Barely 2
    ...  That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.

    Yes, there was a brief dip -- the Shanghai dropped from 3100 to 2750 before popping back up to almost 3050.  But, now its starting to drop again to 3,000 as the world's economy faulters.

    As your Bloomberg figures show:  China is scheduled to over take the U.S. as the world's leading economy (and already has as the leading trading nation).   That's why Trump's primary goal in his battles with China was not jobs but Wall Street access to Chinese markets.  Once he got that he started defending China and, coincidentally, the HongKong riots died down too.   There are still some China haters on the far right beating the drums but they aren't getting a lot of love from Trump these days.   He got what he wanted and cricket chirping doesn't bother him.
    6+ is the supposed GDP growth rate, but no one believes it anymore as China's growth has been slowing down as it matures. 
    ...
    That was your first sentence and the last one I read.  It said all I needed to know about your post which is basically:
    "I will believe anything that is negative about China, but facts that show them in a good light I will call lies".   It's the upside down world of both the far left and the far right.

    But you are right that it is slowing:   a few years back it was 10% and the rate has gradually and steadily been declining down to about 6%  because, as you point out, it is harder to grow a larger economy at the same rate.  But, at the same time, they have been shifting the drivers of the economy to shift it more towards services and internal consumption to provide a base that is more stable and less dependent on the whims and political winds blowing from other countries.

  • Reply 19 of 22
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.

    As even your own figures show:
    China's GDP:  6+
    U.S. GDP:   Barely 2
    ...  That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.
    I'm guessing those numbers are for growth?  That's not how economies are measured, it's how growth and health of economies are measured, and is subject to caveats.  GDP or GDP per Capita are how economies are measured, and the USA is well ahead on both measures.

    Only for political purposes.   Those looking at the economy and what it is doing look at GDP change rate.  
  • Reply 20 of 22
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,243member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    macseeker said:
    I'm not worried.  Apple has always had great strategic plannings.

    It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.

    Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.

    That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.:  We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.

    For example:
    My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district.   Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used.   The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.

    The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans.  Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation.   But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it).  Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.

    Simply put:  today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students.   In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school:  he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.

    While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way.  We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm.   If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
    Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
    ....
    Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
    No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.

    Here's one link that disproves what you stated;

    https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-images-show-coronavirus-shutdown-has-cleared-china-pollution-11946759

    That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity. 


    A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
    • The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

    Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.

    I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated. 

    Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.

    As even your own figures show:
    China's GDP:  6+
    U.S. GDP:   Barely 2
    ...  That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.

    Yes, there was a brief dip -- the Shanghai dropped from 3100 to 2750 before popping back up to almost 3050.  But, now its starting to drop again to 3,000 as the world's economy faulters.

    As your Bloomberg figures show:  China is scheduled to over take the U.S. as the world's leading economy (and already has as the leading trading nation).   That's why Trump's primary goal in his battles with China was not jobs but Wall Street access to Chinese markets.  Once he got that he started defending China and, coincidentally, the HongKong riots died down too.   There are still some China haters on the far right beating the drums but they aren't getting a lot of love from Trump these days.   He got what he wanted and cricket chirping doesn't bother him.
    6+ is the supposed GDP growth rate, but no one believes it anymore as China's growth has been slowing down as it matures. 
    ...
    That was your first sentence and the last one I read.  It said all I needed to know about your post which is basically:
    "I will believe anything that is negative about China, but facts that show them in a good light I will call lies".   It's the upside down world of both the far left and the far right.

    But you are right that it is slowing:   a few years back it was 10% and the rate has gradually and steadily been declining down to about 6%  because, as you point out, it is harder to grow a larger economy at the same rate.  But, at the same time, they have been shifting the drivers of the economy to shift it more towards services and internal consumption to provide a base that is more stable and less dependent on the whims and political winds blowing from other countries.

    If you are one of those people that take the Chinese Government's data at face value, then you of course would be upset by my statement. Still, thanks for admitting what I have been stating, that China's growth is slowing. Given the hit that China has taken since the first of the year, it's possible that they will not see any growth at all this year.
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