Apple Silicon Timeline (past and future)
Hi -- I'm creating this discussion thread so we can resurrect it every time Apple releases a new iteration of Apple silicon, updating the timeline and commenting on what we've learned from the new development(s). I've placed it under "Future Apple Hardware" because it's really about the future, even though its starting point is the past. This timeline doesn't follow every Apple-silicon product, just those I've chosen to illustrate the progression and to show how the consumer (= not "pro") devices fit into Apple's roadmap. Once I've introduced a device, I continue to follow it. The products for each generation of silicon are listed in the order they were released/refreshed, but I don't specify the dates. In M-series hardware, I continue to list the product where it was first introduced.
Here is the current timeline, to date. I have observations about what it means for the future, but I will save those for the comments...
Here is the current timeline, to date. I have observations about what it means for the future, but I will save those for the comments...
A4 (March 2010) iPad 1 :: iPhone 4
A5 (March 2011) iPad 2 :: iPhone 4S
A5X (March 2012) iPad 3
A6 (September 2012) iPhone 5
A6X (October 2012) iPad 4
A7 (September 2013) iPhone 5S :: iPad Air 1
A8 (September 2014) iPhone 6 [TSMC 20nm]
A8X (October 2014) iPad Air 2 [TSMC 20nm]
A9 (September 2015) iPhone 6S :: iPad 5 [TSMC 16nm]
A9X (November 2015) iPad Pro 1 [TSMC 16nm]
A10 (September 2016) iPhone 7 :: iPad 6 :: iPad 7 [TSMC 16nm]
A10X (June 2017) iPad Pro 2 [TSMC 10nm]
A11 (September 2017) iPhone 8, iPhone X [TSMC 10nm]
A12 (September 2018) iPhone XS :: iPad Air 3 :: iPad 8 [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]
A12X (October 2018) iPad Pro 3 [TSMC N7]
A12Z (March 2020) iPad Pro 4 :: Mini (Developer Transition Kit) [TSMC N7]
A13 (September 2019) iPhone 11 :: iPad 9 [TSMC 7nm gen2 "N7P"]
A14 (October 2020) iPhone 12 :: iPad Air 4 :: iPad 10 [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]
M1 (November 2020) Mini :: iMac :: iPad Pro 5 :: iPad Air 5 [TSMC N5]
M1 Pro/Max (October 2021) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5]
M1 Ultra (March 2022) Mac Studio (aslo M1 Max) [TSMC N5]
A15 (September 2021) iPhone 13 :: iPhone 14 [TSMC 5nm gen2 "N5P"]
M2 (June 2022) MacBook Air :: iPad Pro 6 :: Mini (also M2 Pro) [TSMC N5P]
M2 Pro/Max (January 2023) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5P]
M2 Ultra (June 2023) Mac Studio (also M2 Max) :: Mac Pro [TSMC N5P]
A16 (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen3 "N4"]
Comments
On my prediction of "Max+" and "Ultra+" -- sure, it could happen with M3. However, as I understand it based on what others have said, a die shrink is hard enough, and wildly expensive, without introducing major changes. So that's why I'm predicting the major GPU step forward in complexity will come with M4, not M3. But I'd be happy to be wrong, and I acknowledge that my forecast here is almost certainly so. Luckily, I'm not burdened by any sort of insider knowledge, let alone scientific knowledge, so I don't have anything to lose. Keep on Truckin' (Blind Boy Fuller, R. Crumb) ...
I'm a bit more optimistic about the M3 timeline as well. Earlier in 2024, perhaps. End of 2023 seems too optimistic... although we do know that Apple has booked to use all of TMSC's 3nm capacity in 2023. So either their capacity isn't too much, or Apple is expecting to sell a lot of new A17s (but the smartphone market has been softer the past few years), or it will be a combination of A17s and M3s.
I could see M3 (on TSMC N3) shipping with the Vision Pro in early 2024, adding to its allure, and the MacBook Air not getting it until June (on N3E instead of N3, per that rumor). I guess the iMac, iPad Pro, and iPad Air could all get it in October, but that still feels like a long shot.
Marvin, in the thread on Malcolm's front-page article about what can be surmised about M3 (as of July 2023), identified some new information: A16 is now thought to be TSMC N4P (5nm fourth generation), and not N4 (5nm third generation) as was thought at the time it was introduced. The underlying source is TechInsights: https://www.techinsights.com/products/dfr-2209-801
That site specializes in "reverse-engineering." I'm not quite sure what that means in this context -- they examine the silicon used in shipping products. Thus, the final line of my initial post should read:
A16 (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen4 "N4P"]
I think I would rate this as "likely, but not confirmed" -- it's information from a single source. But it's not surprising Apple would get production from this process before anyone else, and before anyone on the outside even knew it was ready to produce.
We do know that Imagination (now owned by China, but still a British company) signed a new licensing deal with Apple in 2020, but that might have just been about ongoing or past use of their IP, and not future implementations.
A10 Fusion was the first to have a label, as it was the first A-series SoC to have two types of cores, combining two high-performance cores with two energy-efficiency cores. Thus, "Fusion."
A11 continued this but also introduced the Neural Engine, so the label was changed to "Bionic." This continued until the A17, which introduced the change to "Pro" yesterday. It will be interesting to see what they do when the M3 comes out. I've updated my list to include the A17 Pro and these labels:
Probably it's just so in the future it's clear which devices have that (hardware raytracing) capability.