Apple Silicon Timeline (past and future)

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware
Hi -- I'm creating this discussion thread so we can resurrect it every time Apple releases a new iteration of Apple silicon, updating the timeline and commenting on what we've learned from the new development(s). I've placed it under "Future Apple Hardware" because it's really about the future, even though its starting point is the past. This timeline doesn't follow every Apple-silicon product, just those I've chosen to illustrate the progression and to show how the consumer (= not "pro") devices fit into Apple's roadmap. Once I've introduced a device, I continue to follow it. The products for each generation of silicon are listed in the order they were released/refreshed, but I don't specify the dates. In M-series hardware, I continue to list the product where it was first introduced.

Here is the current timeline, to date. I have observations about what it means for the future, but I will save those for the comments...

A4 (March 2010) iPad 1 :: iPhone 4

A5 (March 2011) iPad 2 :: iPhone 4S
A5X (March 2012) iPad 3 

A6 (September 2012) iPhone 5
A6X (October 2012) iPad 4

A7 (September 2013) iPhone 5S :: iPad Air 1

A8 (September 2014) iPhone 6 [TSMC 20nm]
A8X (October 2014) iPad Air 2 [TSMC 20nm]

A9 (September 2015) iPhone 6S :: iPad 5 [TSMC 16nm]
A9X (November 2015) iPad Pro 1 [TSMC 16nm]

A10 (September 2016) iPhone 7 :: iPad 6 :: iPad 7 [TSMC 16nm]
A10X (June 2017) iPad Pro 2 [TSMC 10nm]

A11 (September 2017) iPhone 8, iPhone X [TSMC 10nm]

A12 (September 2018) iPhone XS :: iPad Air 3 :: iPad 8 [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]
A12X (October 2018) iPad Pro 3 [TSMC N7]
A12Z (March 2020) iPad Pro 4 :: Mini (Developer Transition Kit) [TSMC N7]

A13 (September 2019) iPhone 11 :: iPad 9 [TSMC 7nm gen2 "N7P"]

A14 (October 2020) iPhone 12 :: iPad Air 4 :: iPad 10 [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]
M1 (November 2020) Mini :: iMac :: iPad Pro 5 :: iPad Air 5 [TSMC N5]
M1 Pro/Max (October 2021) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5]
M1 Ultra (March 2022) Mac Studio (aslo M1 Max)  [TSMC N5]

A15 (September 2021) iPhone 13 :: iPhone 14 [TSMC 5nm gen2 "N5P"]
M2 (June 2022) MacBook Air :: iPad Pro 6 :: Mini (also M2 Pro) [TSMC N5P]
M2 Pro/Max (January 2023) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5P]
M2 Ultra (June 2023) Mac Studio (also M2 Max) :: Mac Pro [TSMC N5P]

A16 (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen3 "N4"]

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 9
    A4 (March 2010) iPad 1 :: iPhone 4

    A5 (March 2011) iPad 2 :: iPhone 4S
    A5X (March 2012) iPad 3 

    A6 (September 2012) iPhone 5
    A6X (October 2012) iPad 4

    A7 (September 2013) iPhone 5S :: iPad Air 1

    A8 (September 2014) iPhone 6 [TSMC 20nm]
    A8X (October 2014) iPad Air 2 [TSMC 20nm]

    A9 (September 2015) iPhone 6S :: iPad 5 [TSMC 16nm]
    A9X (November 2015) iPad Pro 1 [TSMC 16nm]

    A10 (September 2016) iPhone 7 :: iPad 6 :: iPad 7 [TSMC 16nm]
    A10X (June 2017) iPad Pro 2 [TSMC 10nm]

    A11 (September 2017) iPhone 8, iPhone X [TSMC 10nm]

    A12 (September 2018) iPhone XS :: iPad Air 3 :: iPad 8 [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]
    A12X (October 2018) iPad Pro 3 [TSMC N7]
    A12Z (March 2020) iPad Pro 4 :: Mini (Developer Transition Kit) [TSMC N7]

    A13 (September 2019) iPhone 11 :: iPad 9 [TSMC 7nm gen2 "N7P"]

    A14 (October 2020) iPhone 12 :: iPad Air 4 :: iPad 10 [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]
    M1 (November 2020) Mini :: iMac :: iPad Pro 5 :: iPad Air 5 [TSMC N5]
    M1 Pro/Max (October 2021) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5]
    M1 Ultra (March 2022) Mac Studio (aslo M1 Max)  [TSMC N5]

    A15 (September 2021) iPhone 13 :: iPhone 14 [TSMC 5nm gen2 "N5P"]
    M2 (June 2022) MacBook Air :: iPad Pro 6 :: Mini (also M2 Pro) [TSMC N5P]
    M2 Pro/Max (January 2023) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5P]
    M2 Ultra (June 2023) Mac Studio (also M2 Max) :: Mac Pro [TSMC N5P]

    A16 (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen3 "N4"]
    At this point, Apple and TSMC have played enough of their hand(s) that we can draw some tentative conclusions:

    Each generation of the M-series will use the same process node throughout. A14, M1, M1 Pro/Max, and M1 Ultra are all N5. A15, M2, M2 Pro/Max, and M2 Ultra are all N5P. So the A17, M3, M3 Pro/Max, and M3 Ultra/+ will all be on the same process node.

    On the 18-month rumor (that a new generation of the M-series would be introduced every 18 months, similar to the 12-month cycle for the A-series), I think that was a misunderstanding. Apple's plan is for all of its hardware to be refreshed over a period of 18 months. Not the M-series itself, which appears to be on a two-year cycle. The M2 was released two years after Apple Silicon was announced. The M3 will be released two years after the M2. There was one year between M2 and M2 Ultra. There will be one year between the M3 and the M3 Ultra.

    So, if I'm right, that means this Fall the iMac and the iPad Air will get M2, 18 months after the M2 was introduced, and the M2 hardware refresh cycle will be complete. There will be a lot of gnashing of teeth and rending of garments as the dream of A17 and M3 both being introduced at the same time is shown to be unrealistic. The M1 being released only a month after the A14 doesn't reflect Apple and TSMC's actual timeline for moving from the A14 to M1 to M1 Pro/Max to M1 Ultra, whereas the A15 to M2 to M2 Pro/Max to M2 Ultra timeline does.
  • Reply 2 of 9
    Here's my prediction for the Apple Silicon timeline going forward:
    A17 (September 2023) [TSMC 3nm gen1 "N3"]
    M3 (June 2024) [TSMC N3]
    M3 Pro/Max (October 2024) [TSMC N3]
    M3 Ultra (June 2025) [TSMC N3]

    A18 (September 2024) [TSMC 3nm gen2 "N3P"]

    A19 (September 2025) [TSMC 3nm gen3 "N2"]
    M4 (June 2026) [TSMC N2]
    M4 Pro/Max/Max+ (October 2026) [TSMC N2] (Pro = 1 CPU + 1 GPU; Max = 1 CPU + 2 GPU; Max+ = 1 CPU + 4 GPU)
    M4 Ultra/Ultra+ (June 2027) [TSMC N2] (Ultra = 2x Max; Ultra+ = 2x Max+)
    The rumored A17 move from N3 (a.k.a. N3B) to N3E doesn't change this. The A17, M3, M3 Pro/Max, and M3 Ultra will all be on the same process node, N3. TSMC 3nm is more than just a die shrink. It's more flexible, resulting in the N3/N3E refinement. TSMC is also changing from FinFET transistors to "Nanosheet" (a.k.a. GAAFET) transistors. That shift is due for N2 (which we can guess will still be 3nm, much like N4 is still 5nm). N3/N3E and N3P are the last FinFET. N2 and N2P are the first GAAFET.

    On my prediction of "Max+" and "Ultra+" -- sure, it could happen with M3. However, as I understand it based on what others have said, a die shrink is hard enough, and wildly expensive, without introducing major changes. So that's why I'm predicting the major GPU step forward in complexity will come with M4, not M3. But I'd be happy to be wrong, and I acknowledge that my forecast here is almost certainly so. Luckily, I'm not burdened by any sort of insider knowledge, let alone scientific knowledge, so I don't have anything to lose. Keep on Truckin' (Blind Boy Fuller, R. Crumb) ...


    edited July 5
  • Reply 3 of 9
    programmerprogrammer Posts: 3,445member
    I think the odds of a significant GPU revision are more likely in M3 than you think, primarily because it was initially aimed to happen in the M2 generation but wasn't ready in time.  They've had quite a long time to work on it, and there is a lot of market pressure to get it into product.

    I'm a bit more optimistic about the M3 timeline as well.  Earlier in 2024, perhaps.  End of 2023 seems too optimistic... although we do know that Apple has booked to use all of TMSC's 3nm capacity in 2023.  So either their capacity isn't too much, or Apple is expecting to sell a lot of new A17s (but the smartphone market has been softer the past few years), or it will be a combination of A17s and M3s.
    tenthousandthings
  • Reply 4 of 9
    I think the odds of a significant GPU revision are more likely in M3 than you think, primarily because it was initially aimed to happen in the M2 generation but wasn't ready in time.  They've had quite a long time to work on it, and there is a lot of market pressure to get it into product.

    I'm a bit more optimistic about the M3 timeline as well.  Earlier in 2024, perhaps.  End of 2023 seems too optimistic... although we do know that Apple has booked to use all of TMSC's 3nm capacity in 2023.  So either their capacity isn't too much, or Apple is expecting to sell a lot of new A17s (but the smartphone market has been softer the past few years), or it will be a combination of A17s and M3s.
    For me, it's about the choice they made for M2. The A15 came out in September 2021, but they waited until June 2022 to launch the M2. My theory is that was always the plan. I'm surely reading too much into a single decision, but I'm okay with that. The point is that for Apple it's about products, and the MacBook Air reigns supreme. A two-year refresh cycle for the flagship allows for some flexibility with regard to introducing new products, like they did with the 15" MacBook Air.

    I could see M3 (on TSMC N3) shipping with the Vision Pro in early 2024, adding to its allure, and the MacBook Air not getting it until June (on N3E instead of N3, per that rumor). I guess the iMac, iPad Pro, and iPad Air could all get it in October, but that still feels like a long shot.
  • Reply 5 of 9
    CORRECTION

    Marvin, in the thread on Malcolm's front-page article about what can be surmised about M3 (as of July 2023), identified some new information: A16 is now thought to be TSMC N4P (5nm fourth generation), and not N4 (5nm third generation) as was thought at the time it was introduced. The underlying source is TechInsights: https://www.techinsights.com/products/dfr-2209-801

    That site specializes in "reverse-engineering." I'm not quite sure what that means in this context -- they examine the silicon used in shipping products. Thus, the final line of my initial post should read:

    A16 (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen4 "N4P"]

    I think I would rate this as "likely, but not confirmed" -- it's information from a single source. But it's not surprising Apple would get production from this process before anyone else, and before anyone on the outside even knew it was ready to 
    produce.
    edited July 30
  • Reply 6 of 9
    I think the odds of a significant GPU revision are more likely in M3 than you think, primarily because it was initially aimed to happen in the M2 generation but wasn't ready in time.  They've had quite a long time to work on it, and there is a lot of market pressure to get it into product.
    Someone (Mjtomlin) proposed in the M3 thread that the delay was caused by problems integrating Imagination Technologies' tile-based rendering designs into the GPU. I believe it was you who first pointed out the importance of tile-based rendering here with regard to what Apple is doing in its silicon, in contrast to most other GPU architectures.

    We do know that Imagination (now owned by China, but still a British company) signed a new licensing deal with Apple in 2020, but that might have just been about ongoing or past use of their IP, and not future implementations.
    programmer
  • Reply 7 of 9
    A note on the Fusion, Bionic, and now Pro labels for the A-series.

    A10 Fusion was the first to have a label, as it was the first A-series SoC to have two types of cores, combining two high-performance cores with two energy-efficiency cores. Thus, "Fusion."

    A11 continued this but also introduced the Neural Engine, so the label was changed to "Bionic." This continued until the A17, which introduced the change to "Pro" yesterday. It will be interesting to see what they do when the M3 comes out. I've updated my list to include the A17 Pro and these labels:

    A4 (March 2010) iPad 1 :: iPhone 4

    A5 (March 2011) iPad 2 :: iPhone 4S
    A5X (March 2012) iPad 3 

    A6 (September 2012) iPhone 5
    A6X (October 2012) iPad 4

    A7 (September 2013) iPhone 5S :: iPad Air 1

    A8 (September 2014) iPhone 6 [TSMC 20nm]
    A8X (October 2014) iPad Air 2 [TSMC 20nm]

    A9 (September 2015) iPhone 6S :: iPad 5 [TSMC 16nm]
    A9X (November 2015) iPad Pro 1 [TSMC 16nm]

    A10 Fusion (September 2016) iPhone 7 :: iPad 6 :: iPad 7 [TSMC 16nm]
    A10X Fusion (June 2017) iPad Pro 2 [TSMC 10nm]

    A11 Bionic (September 2017) iPhone 8, iPhone X [TSMC 10nm]

    A12 Bionic (September 2018) iPhone XS :: iPad Air 3 :: iPad 8 [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]
    A12X Bionic (October 2018) iPad Pro 3 [TSMC N7] (7-core GPU)
    A12Z Bionic (March 2020) iPad Pro 4 :: Mini (Developer Transition Kit) [TSMC N7] (8-core GPU)

    A13 Bionic (September 2019) iPhone 11 :: iPad 9 [TSMC 7nm gen2 "N7P"]

    A14 Bionic (October 2020) iPhone 12 :: iPad Air 4 :: iPad 10 [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]
    M1 (November 2020) Mini :: iMac :: iPad Pro 5 :: iPad Air 5 [TSMC N5]
    M1 Pro/Max (October 2021) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5]
    M1 Ultra (March 2022) Mac Studio (also M1 Max) [TSMC N5]

    A15 Bionic (September 2021) iPhone 13 :: iPhone 14 [TSMC 5nm gen2 "N5P"]
    M2 (June 2022) MacBook Air :: iPad Pro 6 :: Mini (also M2 Pro) [TSMC N5P]
    M2 Pro/Max (January 2023) MacBook Pro [TSMC N5P]
    M2 Ultra (June 2023) Mac Studio (also M2 Max) :: Mac Pro [TSMC N5P]

    A16 Bionic (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen4 "N4P"]

    A17 Pro (September 2023) [TSMC 3nm gen1 "N3"]
  • Reply 8 of 9
    The A17 includes the new GPU w/ hardware raytracing capabilities.  That will be in the M3 series of chips.
    tenthousandthings
  • Reply 9 of 9
    The A17 includes the new GPU w/ hardware raytracing capabilities.  That will be in the M3 series of chips.
    Yes, I saw that! Thus the "Pro" moniker. It seems like an odd choice of name, unless they release a plain A17 next year without it, thereby mirroring the approach to Mac silicon. So "Pro" A-series silicon would be exclusive to the iPhone Pro line and iPad Pro. That seems unlikely, but you never know.

    Probably it's just so in the future it's clear which devices have that (hardware raytracing) capability.
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