J.P. Morgan trims Apple stock target to $230 citing iPhone & Services weaknesses
J.P. Morgan has lowered its Apple stock price target, warning that iPhone demand may be slowing down after a wave of early purchases and weaker interest in the upcoming models.
The iPhone 16 product family
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, J.P. Morgan has lowered its price target for Apple from $240 to $230. The new price target reflects tempered expectations for revenue and earnings over the next 18 months.
The firm pointed to softer demand projections for the upcoming iPhone 17 lineup. Also noted is broader economic pressures that could weigh on consumer spending.
iPhone 17 demand expected to slow
JP Morgan now expects a lull in iPhone sales following earlier demand pull-forwards. Customers bought new devices sooner than usual to avoid expected price hikes from Trump administration tariffs.
The surge in earlier buying activity, along with limited hardware changes in the iPhone 17, is expected to result in slower adoption when the new models arrive.
Production forecasts for iPhone 17 models are tracking below 2024's levels, with estimated builds about 9% lower than those for iPhone 16. For 2025, Apple is projected to ship roughly the same number of iPhones as in 2024, despite a weaker second half of the year.
J.P. Morgan's updated forecast also shows reduced growth for Apple's Services segment, which has been a key driver of margin expansion in recent years.
Tariffs and supply chain shifts
Apple's supply chain shift from China to India reduces exposure to U.S. tariffs and protecting its margins. However, that isn't enough to offset expected volume loss due to higher prices.
These structural changes may benefit the company long-term, but they currently contribute to the forecast moderation.
The revised price target indicates a shift in sentiment as analysts adjust expectations for Apple's hardware growth. While the iPhone remains central to the company, incremental updates may lead to decreased consumer enthusiasm.
Future growth tied to Apple Intelligence
Looking further ahead, J.P. Morgan sees stronger momentum returning with the iPhone 18. That cycle is expected to include a foldable model and more advanced AI capabilities.
These two updates could drive renewed interest and support a faster pace of revenue growth in fiscal 2027. Meanwhile, the firm's 2025 earnings forecast remains largely unchanged.
There is a slight boost in near-term iPhone revenue expectations and a trim in Services and gross margin estimates. Forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027 reflect weaker unit growth, potential price elasticity from future increases, and tariff-related cost pressures.
Investors are strangely focused on AI innovation, despite low accuracy and user uptake. Apple is more cautious about AI roll-outs and feature expansions than competitors.
The upgraded Siri probably won't arrive until 2026
Apple's long-term strategy appears increasingly focused on 2026 as a turning point for platform-level innovation. The full Siri overhaul built on on-device language models is not expected until early 2026, likely with iOS 26.4.
That upgrade is set to bring deeper contextual awareness and more advanced interactions, marking a major shift in Apple's approach to AI.
A foldable iPhone is also rumored for that timeframe. Some reports claim production could begin in the second half of 2025 with a possible launch in late 2026. Others anticipate a delay into 2027.
Until then, Apple relies on its Services revenue and margin control to maintain investor confidence. While its fundamentals remain strong, J.P. Morgan's revision suggests near-term growth may be constrained unless Apple delivers a more compelling hardware refresh.
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Comments
Their iPhones get uglier with 17 series.
Apple fails to convince consumers why they should upgrade their phones regularly. Their Apple Watch series have no major improvements. It is really a huge disappointment that Apple Watch X did not get any huge improvements for the 10th anniversay.
Siri is a fail. I bet Siri will not be ready next spring.
Apple Intelligence is rather Apple Incomeptence with Genmoji bulls*its.
In any departments, you get news about delays.
Tim Cook... Sure that he is still the right guy? His mismanagement needs to be punished.
I would not be surprised if AMZN and GOOG(L) surpasses AAPL sooner or later in terms of the market cap.
AAPL investors must be frustrated while NVDA, META, MSFT heading to ATH.
Tim Cook needs to step down. He makes Apple just.... rotten Apple.
NVDA does not sell chips, but super computer (HW + SW called CUDA).
MSFT is selling cloud AI infrastructure.
META is basically the "Super App" in the social media world, which can´t be replaced by Snapchat, Pinetrest or even TikTok.
Apple´s EPS gets higher due to buybacks, but there is exactly no fundamental base behind when it comes to Apple´s EPS.
Apple is rotten. Tim Cook needs to step down. His day is counted.
As for Tim Cook. He failed to diversify Apple and to see AI. MSFT: 93% in 3 years. Apple: 44% (the difference looking at 10 years is even more).
Apple need to get a product person, stop the legal battles, penny-pinching, and infinite iterations. And to go somewhere new and disrupt. Personal health, cars - do something!
So original.
MacRumors is calling, why not answer?
The whole management team feels old and slow. They are getting outpaced by META for God’s sake.
When was the last time Apple announced big new initiatives in Education, Business, or Health? When was the last time they had a product event - October? They have spent more time on the F1 movie than anything else over the last year
They need to wake the F up
John Ternus is the youngest executive at his age 50 LOL...
People may agree or disagree, but this is the sentiment right now that the market compares their performance to each other.
AAPL investors may have NVDA, META, MSFT, NFLX or others, but if AAPL was bullish with others together, their portfolio would be richer.
The stock performance reflects the current company situation. The market may be wrong, but is the market wrong RIGHT NOW?
I think people deserve to complain on Apple's current strategy.
In stead of delivering their product, Apple keeps yelling why they are late with Siri etc. All these bulls*its sound like an excuse.
When I told my 64 years mom (using iPhone 13 Pro Max) that she may need another phone, she asked me what´s her benefit by going from 13 to 16.
I thought about it. But actually, I don´t have any valid points why she should upgrade it.
In stead of that, I bought her an iPad NOT because she needs an upgrade, but because she did not have one before.
But now, she does not need to upgrade an iPad for next 5 years because I probably think that Apple will not bring out some major upgrades for iPad.
Their AI features are useless and craps. But in stead of showing their effort how to fix it, executive m*rons rather hang out with F1 movie stars while other peers do spend their times with AI talents for the future (If it will be a major success or not, it is another question).
I don´t blame on failed car project, because Apple showed at least that they tried something. But now, Apple wants to be a healthcare company (althought they lost against lawsuits because they abused others´ patents), Apple wants to be a media company (F1 with Warner Bros.. Dying dinosaurs) etc.
But there was a leak that Apple intended a full autonomous driving experience controlled and steered by Siri.
As an automotive engineer, I see no use case from Apple what Apple could do better and unique with their Apple Car in comparison to other OEMs.
And a full autonomous driving level is far away from the reality.
Therefore, I am glad that Apple stopped this project.
Nevertheless, I scratch myself what Apple really did with Siri if it is true that Siri should have been the brain of Apple Car.