Howard Dean - nominee?
Has Howard Dean peaked too early? Or is he on a clear track to win the Democratic nomnation in 2004?
He is clearly the frontrunner and has the most momentum. After raising the most money in the second quarter, he is on track to be the top fundraiser again this quarter mostly from contributions under $100.
He is also leading in key polls. He is currently polling first in New Hampshire, 21% ahead of Kerry. A new poll of Iowa also now shows him leading by a statistical margin next to Gephardt.
Dean also has one of the best favorable/unfavorable polled ratio of all the nine candidates and many pundits are now proclaiming him the nominee-to-be. But some say he has peaked too early and will soon lose momentum.
He is clearly the frontrunner and has the most momentum. After raising the most money in the second quarter, he is on track to be the top fundraiser again this quarter mostly from contributions under $100.
He is also leading in key polls. He is currently polling first in New Hampshire, 21% ahead of Kerry. A new poll of Iowa also now shows him leading by a statistical margin next to Gephardt.
Dean also has one of the best favorable/unfavorable polled ratio of all the nine candidates and many pundits are now proclaiming him the nominee-to-be. But some say he has peaked too early and will soon lose momentum.
Comments
Shudder and Fear for the very soul of the Democratic Party if that should happen whether you're a Centrist, Moderate, Progressive, Limousine or Loony Left.
I like Dean and I like McCain. Maybe I just like grouchy guys.
Screed -- Independent (read: non affiliated)
Washington will always be divisive but it would turn into 'Lord of the Flies' with another Clinton in the Oval Office.
Screed
Mark my words, Dean will NOT get the nomination. The Democrats would be absolutely insane to run him against Bush. It won't be because of him "peaking". It's because he's too LEFT. You guys can argue all you want about me being wrong, but if the Dems nominate Dean, Karl Rove and company will have a FIELD DAY with him.
As it stands, the best chance for the Dems are Kerry and perhaps Gephardt. The only other serious contender could be Wesley Clark.
And BTW, if Hillary runs she won't have a chance. Either way, my money is on Kerry for the nomination.
Originally posted by SDW2001
Mark my words, Dean will NOT get the nomination. The Democrats would be absolutely insane to run him against Bush. It won't be because of him "peaking". It's because he's too LEFT.
Lean left in the primary, then centrist for the election. It's how things work.
Originally posted by SDW2001
What's really funny are the choices you gave. It's either he'll get the nomination or he won't.... because he "peaked too early". You've missed the ball on this one. I'm starting to look forward to your threads with the same anticipation as sammi jo's.
Mark my words, Dean will NOT get the nomination. The Democrats would be absolutely insane to run him against Bush. It won't be because of him "peaking". It's because he's too LEFT. You guys can argue all you want about me being wrong, but if the Dems nominate Dean, Karl Rove and company will have a FIELD DAY with him.
As it stands, the best chance for the Dems are Kerry and perhaps Gephardt. The only other serious contender could be Wesley Clark.
And BTW, if Hillary runs she won't have a chance. Either way, my money is on Kerry for the nomination.
You mean too left for you.
Originally posted by SDW2001
What's really funny are the choices you gave. It's either he'll get the nomination or he won't.... because he "peaked too early". You've missed the ball on this one. I'm starting to look forward to your threads with the same anticipation as sammi jo's.
Mark my words, Dean will NOT get the nomination. The Democrats would be absolutely insane to run him against Bush. It won't be because of him "peaking". It's because he's too LEFT. You guys can argue all you want about me being wrong, but if the Dems nominate Dean, Karl Rove and company will have a FIELD DAY with him.
As it stands, the best chance for the Dems are Kerry and perhaps Gephardt. The only other serious contender could be Wesley Clark.
And BTW, if Hillary runs she won't have a chance. Either way, my money is on Kerry for the nomination.
Too left
Field day
Gephardt
Have any of you even bothered to look into this man's record? Have any of you even taken a second out of your precious time to see what he has done while Governor? Because it doesn't sound like it. What it sounds like is a blind, sheep like, echo chamber in here. Dean's a centrist Democrat proven by fact and record. No amount of finger pointing and labeling is going to change that.
Look, I have no idea who's ultimately going to win the Democratic nomination. And I'm not going to be so presumptive as to proclaim any one candidate the nominee. It's just way too early to tell. Heck, if you ask some of the trollers around here they'll say any Dem is shooting gallery fodder. So why bother nominating anyone at all? Sh*t, might as well save the country the hassel and expense of re-election and give Bush four more warring years. Since we're taking out countries with mass-graves now, looks like we're going after N Korea, Iran and Syria (of which I'm sure there are numerous mass-graves and human attrocities on par with Hussein) next anyway and who'd want to put a stop to that, right?
These people really think we're morons. The stupidity is amazing!
Originally posted by SDW2001
You guys can argue all you want about me being wrong, but if the Dems nominate Dean, Karl Rove and company will have a FIELD DAY with him.
As it stands, the best chance for the Dems are Kerry and perhaps Gephardt.
In other words: CONFIRMED. Dean is your next president.
I just love watching you guys froth at the mouth and shudder with anticipation at the thought that Bush might lose.
And of course, what thread would be complete without someone labeling SDW as a blatantly, blindly polarized, non-thinking partisan?
Northgate:
ANY Democratic nominee will automatically and systematically be bombarded with GOP marketing lies, un-truths, fabrications and distortions of which Fox News will repeat, ad nauseam, every day during the campaign. ANY Democratic nominee will be labeled a "leftist limousine liberal" (my personal favorite) and then written-off as wrong for America.
And the Left Wing media will continue its assault on conservatives....
And BTW, Leftist Limousine Liberals do exist. We have at least one running. Oh, and I must ask you: Are you telling me all the GOP ads wil contain "lies, un-truths and fabrications", while the Democratic ones will spread the good word for the poor hard working people? Fight the power, man!
These people really think we're morons. The stupidity is amazing!
First, that's my signature. Second, who are "these people"?
Listening to you guys talk about Dean is like witnessing some sort of manic depression . First, you are forlorn at the probability that Bush will be reelected. Then, you go into a state of illogical mania when you see Dean's numbers. BTW, the average number of Democrats polled that believe Bush will likely be reelected is arround 65%.
Originally posted by SDW2001
BTW, the average number of Democrats polled that believe Bush will likely be reelected is arround 65%.
That will just drive more of them to the polls.
Originally posted by SDW2001
Go ahead. Keep mocking. Dean leans too Left for the general election.
I just love watching you guys froth at the mouth and shudder with anticipation at the thought that Bush might lose.
And of course, what thread would be complete without someone labeling SDW as a blatantly, blindly polarized, non-thinking partisan?
Northgate:
And the Left Wing media will continue its assault on conservatives....
And BTW, Leftist Limousine Liberals do exist. We have at least one running. Oh, and I must ask you: Are you telling me all the GOP ads wil contain "lies, un-truths and fabrications", while the Democratic ones will spread the good word for the poor hard working people? Fight the power, man!
First, that's my signature. Second, who are "these people"?
Listening to you guys talk about Dean is like witnessing some sort of manic depression . First, you are forlorn at the probability that Bush will be reelected. Then, you go into a state of illogical mania when you see Dean's numbers. BTW, the average number of Democrats polled that believe Bush will likely be reelected is arround 65%.
Fortunately you come from an alternate universe which is where you get your " Facts " from. The simple truth is that Bush is going down. When this happens I imagine we won't hear from you for awhile.
By the way. Where's that big economic turn around you were promising?
What? No WOMD found?
People are unhappy with our president.
Bush is going down.
Get used to it.
HE HAS IT
MONEY IS THE MOTHER'S MILK OF POLITICS
he can outspend his opponant, bill c did it royally
GOLDEN RULE--HE WHO HAS THE MOST GOLD RULES
Originally posted by NOFEER
MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY
HE HAS IT
MONEY IS THE MOTHER'S MILK OF POLITICS
he can outspend his opponant, bill c did it royally
GOLDEN RULE--HE WHO HAS THE MOST GOLD RULES
I believe Clinton was elected because of people being tired of what we are experiencing again right now. A tired economy that isn't really going anywhere and a leader who only cares for one small segment of the population.
One of my largest problems with Democrats as a whole is that their whole "plan" for most items seems to consist of basically pointing out that anyone against them is "the devil."
The people here supporting Dean say he is a centrist while others claim he is a leftist. Exactly what sort of changes is he proposing beside "Bush bad" that we should elect him for?
Just to be clear I have heard this complaint about Dean not only from the right, but from the left as well. Good at bashing Bush, bad at articulating plan for change.
So if someone could tell me what things he stands for, I would be happy to know. I already know that he doesn't sit well with many Dems because he is pretty pro-second amendment with regard to gun control.
Nick
The people here supporting Dean say he is a centrist while others claim he is a leftist. Exactly what sort of changes is he proposing beside "Bush bad" that we should elect him for?
Actually, all of the Democratic candidates are saying more than "Bush bad". I've seen enough of them up here in New Hampshire to know that.
As for Rove having a 'field day' with Dean or any other Democratic candidate, we have to remember that it will be Bush that will have to debate the nominee, not Rove.
We'll have to wait and see if Bush agrees to more than 2 or 3 debates this time around. Gore definitely had the advantage in the debates but came across as 'boring' and not very enthusiastic.
But remember that it is still way too early to pick a winner of a primary, especially up here in New Hampshire. 25% of us haven't chosen who we will vote for yet, and the majority of the population is registered as 'independent'. When people come to vote at the local polling place, there is a table where you can register for a political party, and after you drop your ballot in the box, there's a table where you can switch back to an independent.
As a result, many conservatives will vote in the Democratic primary, especially with no Republicans running against Bush.
So you have 25% of Democrats undecided in New Hampshire and that number is still short because of the 'independent factor'.
I feel Dean is in the lead in New Hampshire because he spends so much time in the state. He spends much more time here then any other candidate I've seen, including John Kerry.
But it is still early. There are people who have campaign offices set up in NH that aren't even in the race yet, including Wesley Clark. The other big name being dropped around is Al Gore's. There is major speculation that he will get into the race sometime in September. Beyond that is cutting it close though. If Gore gets into the race, he wins NH hands down.
Fortunately you come from an alternate universe which is where you get your " Facts " from. The simple truth is that Bush is going down. When this happens I imagine we won't hear from you for awhile.
By the way. Where's that big economic turn around you were promising?
What? No WOMD found?
People are unhappy with our president.
Bush is going down.
Get used to it.
And it's ME who's living in an alternate universe? Are you shitting me? It's one thing to WANT Bush to lose...even to HOPE, PRAY, etc. for him to lose. But, it's a a whole other thing to actually believe it's likely.
Fran441:
First, I usually enjoy debating you because you don't resort to slime ball tactics. I understand what you're saying, but:
Actually, all of the Democratic candidates are saying more than "Bush bad". I've seen enough of them up here in New Hampshire to know that.
Two points: 1) What speciffically are they saying? 2) It doesn't matter if you know what they are saying...what matters is if the majority of people do. They don't.
As for Rove having a 'field day' with Dean or any other Democratic candidate, we have to remember that it will be Bush that will have to debate the nominee, not Rove.
I'm sort of suprised you'd say that. The implication is that Bush cannot debate well and is, of course stupid. If Bush is so incompetent, how is it that he held his own three years ago against Gore? By the way, most pundits put Bush AHEAD after the third debate. How did that happen? Are you telling me Gore was that bad? Bush will be more prepared as well.
We'll have to wait and see if Bush agrees to more than 2 or 3 debates this time around. Gore definitely had the advantage in the debates but came across as 'boring' and not very enthusiastic.
There you go again. Gore's advantage was slim in the first one, they tied the second, and Bush won the third. According to most, anyway. I agree with the boring part, but I'd also add "haughty" , "arrogant" and "rude". Oh, and I forgot: He lied like a dog.
But remember that it is still way too early to pick a winner of a primary, especially up here in New Hampshire. 25% of us haven't chosen who we will vote for yet, and the majority of the population is registered as 'independent'. When people come to vote at the local polling place, there is a table where you can register for a political party, and after you drop your ballot in the box, there's a table where you can switch back to an independent.
As a result, many conservatives will vote in the Democratic primary, especially with no Republicans running against Bush.
So you have 25% of Democrats undecided in New Hampshire and that number is still short because of the 'independent factor'.
I didn't know that. Interesting.
I feel Dean is in the lead in New Hampshire because he spends so much time in the state. He spends much more time here then any other candidate I've seen, including John Kerry.
But it is still early. There are people who have campaign offices set up in NH that aren't even in the race yet, including Wesley Clark. The other big name being dropped around is Al Gore's. There is major speculation that he will get into the race sometime in September. Beyond that is cutting it close though. If Gore gets into the race, he wins NH hands down.
Fair enough. I would actaully LOVE to see Gore run again. I think he might as well.
Originally posted by jimmac
I believe Clinton was elected because of people being tired of what we are experiencing again right now. A tired economy that isn't really going anywhere and a leader who only cares for one small segment of the population.
LOL.
In part you are right. But, it was also Bush 41's total lack of acknowledgement we were in a recession. He took no real action. He also broke his tax pledge and ran a lousy campaign.
Bush 43 has not and will not do those things. There is no Clinton, who was runnning a much more centered campaign than Dean is now. There is no Perot. The economy IS improving, and it's now getting really entertaining to hear you claim that it isn't.
Originally posted by SDW2001
And of course, what thread would be complete without someone labeling SDW as a blatantly, blindly polarized, non-thinking partisan?
SDW, read some of your recent posts. It's not that hard to get the impression that you are a blatantly and blindly polarized partisan. Non-thinking in the sense that you lean pro-Bush no matter what, although you most likely have the ability to think clearly in other respects.
You ask if Dean is peaking early and you go off topic on a pro-Bush rant. That's what you always do.
Is Dean peaking early? There are two different races he has to run. Peaking early in a primary can be good because it gets your name out in front of the others while the others are all giving a similar message (because they're all Democrats.) He'll lean more centrist for the election (if he's nominated) and that's that.
Originally posted by trumptman
I will ask this instead of arguing who will win the next election.
One of my largest problems with Democrats as a whole is that their whole "plan" for most items seems to consist of basically pointing out that anyone against them is "the devil."
The people here supporting Dean say he is a centrist while others claim he is a leftist. Exactly what sort of changes is he proposing beside "Bush bad" that we should elect him for?
Just to be clear I have heard this complaint about Dean not only from the right, but from the left as well. Good at bashing Bush, bad at articulating plan for change.
So if someone could tell me what things he stands for, I would be happy to know. I already know that he doesn't sit well with many Dems because he is pretty pro-second amendment with regard to gun control.
Nick
It is strategic for Republicans to rhetorically minimize the differences between its candidate and the Democratic candidate-- then Republicans can win on wedge issues like abortion. It is also nothing but strategy for one side to claim the other "doesn't have a plan"--
About Dean- he's indeed "centrist" with regard to the whole of his political ideology, but he energizes the anti-Bush, progressive grassroots of the left. That's significant. The only real voter-mobilization problem with Dean is that he lacks real support from traditionally Democratic-voting minorities. That's not to say they won't vote for him-- it's only that he needs to reach out to them- eventually.