Apple Stock Prediction
I'm thinking that once Panther comes out and impresses the hell out of everybody, it will be right around the time that the bulk of Apple's G5 orders will have been filled. We all know its going to be a killer, so my suggestion is get in while its still low. I have a feeling its going to jump through the roof in the next month.
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Even with the G5, I don't see it doing any roof-jumping any time soon.
Originally posted by Airweasel45
I'm thinking that once Panther comes out and impresses the hell out of everybody, it will be right around the time that the bulk of Apple's G5 orders will have been filled. We all know its going to be a killer, so my suggestion is get in while its still low. I have a feeling its going to jump through the roof in the next month.
This is wishful thinking. But I've been around long enough to know that theres little correlation between the merit of products and their market penetration... Theres even less correlation between product merit and stock value.
Go back 2 years, and the range has been 15-25. So 20 is about average for the stock. Overall, it's a fairly consistent stock, and unless Apple makes some fairly significant gains in market share, the stock isn't going to sky rocket but on the other hand, it's not going to tank unless they make some terrible business decisions.
The biggest problem Apple has to overcome, in my opinion, is not the 'megahertz gap', or the fact that machines are 'overpriced'. Instead, I see Apple's biggest problem as being able to deliver new machines in a timely manner.
With a gaming console, you want to hype your products before releasing them, but with computers, you want to hype your products and also have them available for purchase immediately. Launching a computer in June and not delivering them until September or October is horrible, and all it does is lead to lost sales and lost customers.
If Apple can start delivering machines immediately after announcing them, they will be in *much* better shape. Imagine Apple launching a Dual or Quad Processor 3 GHz G5 and being able to actually sell them at their stores *immediately* following the announcement?
Get people into the stores, have them watch the keynote, and as soon as the machines are announced, have employees roll them out from the back rooms.
Ok, I got off track, but I think you get my general message.
Originally posted by Fran441
The biggest problem Apple has to overcome, in my opinion, is not the 'megahertz gap', or the fact that machines are 'overpriced'. Instead, I see Apple's biggest problem as being able to deliver new machines in a timely manner.
While timely delivery is an obvious problem, I think the pricing issue is the greater one.
It boils down to how investors feel about Apple's position and influence on the industry. With a mere 3% marketshare, it doesn't even register. So Apple needs to sell more units. And how do you sell more? Lower the cost of it's products (notably the iMac). Until Apple can command 10% of the market, it will be seen (and rightly so) as nothing more than a niche player.
Originally posted by satchmo
While timely delivery is an obvious problem, I think the pricing issue is the greater one.
It boils down to how investors feel about Apple's position and influence on the industry. With a mere 3% marketshare, it doesn't even register. So Apple needs to sell more units. And how do you sell more? Lower the cost of it's products (notably the iMac). Until Apple can command 10% of the market, it will be seen (and rightly so) as nothing more than a niche player.
The problem with that is that somethings got to give. Lower the price and you have to sacrifice something. When you do that you risk alienating your existing user base...
Originally posted by Jukebox Hero
When you do that you risk alienating your existing user base...
Alienating your existing user base? How?
No, the sacrifice is that you risk losing revenue by cutting into the profit margin and thereby decreasing profit overall. If Apple was confident enough about gaining market share, there would be no hesitation in cutting prices. Apple would sell enough more units to make up for the lowered margin.
Yet, Apple's not in that position yet.
People can fight until Apple's dead about whether or not lowering prices would increase market share. Fred Anderson and company probably have a bit more experience dealing with businesses and economics than we do. Price isn't the only variable holding Apple's market share down. There's the general public's knowledge (or rather lack of) about the products and the widespread reliance on Windows-only software. Let's not forget Apple's stigmatic image as a yuppie, upper-middle class man's "toy" computer that doesn't do any "real" work except for graphics. Add on top of that how the IT industry has invested so much money in getting Microsoft-certified that technicians will refuse to use anything else.
Anyhow, back to the subject, I must agree that the stock will never have a strong and steady rise until Apple can vastly increase its market penetration and share.
Originally posted by Brad
Let's not forget Apple's stigmatic image as a yuppie, upper-middle class man's "toy" computer that doesn't do any "real" work except for graphics.
There's alot of truth to this statement. The platform supports few enterprise applications... Blame IBM for that, they don't have DB2 for Mac, nor Websphere, nor MQSeries. If IBM embraces you, then industry does.