Will DVD's go the way of LaserDiscs?
I'm sure there are many who had invested heavily into LD's, only to see that format die.
I realize DVD movies are more mainstream, akin to VHS, rather than LD's which really catered to videophiles. Today, DVD reigns. But now there's a Super DVD format making it's way into stores.
And since the medium is all digital, is it a matter of delivery rather than the format? With the adaptation of high speed delivery in more households, will we see the day where DVD's become obselete?
I realize DVD movies are more mainstream, akin to VHS, rather than LD's which really catered to videophiles. Today, DVD reigns. But now there's a Super DVD format making it's way into stores.
And since the medium is all digital, is it a matter of delivery rather than the format? With the adaptation of high speed delivery in more households, will we see the day where DVD's become obselete?
Comments
How fast will new digital media and formats come out and turn over? People have pointed out how Apple's release of 4 major revisions of its OS in the past 3 years is placing a strain on Apple customers, at least in their heads. How will the pace be set for releasing these new formats, and how do you get maximum saturation and momentum behind each new format?
Will users be able to upgrade their already purchased media into newer media and formats, and how difficult and expensive will that option be? This along with licensing issues will drive the adoption of certain technology over others, and trumps any issue about quality of a particular format over another. I suspect that these companies have no interesting helping customers in this respect. The record companies loved how people repurchased all those LPs and cassettes when CDs came out. They miss those days. However, if the formats change at a greater pace, and they expect people to repurchase their stuff each time, I think consumers will say enough is enough. Either it will spawn a huge market for the conversion technology to upgrade their existing stuff to the newer formats, or the prices for these items (music, movies, etc.) will have to go through the floor to make it worthwhile to consumers.
Will software formats and DRM models become more closely tied to hardware and vertical business models? In other words, will everyone try to be an Apple but will some try to completely close the platform in the attempt to protect itself from a more fickle user base? It's more likely this will happen once a player has a sizable chunk of the market: work with an open standard format, then cut off the user base from it. With broadband networks and software-only delivery methods and formats, how will users be able to protect their property? How will companies protect their property? What will the DRM systems allow? How will hardware for delivery, playback and backup dovetail with these networks? Who comes out with the winning formula, and/or will there be several models for buying, renting, etc.?
Originally posted by satchmo
I'm sure there are many who had invested heavily into LD's, only to see that format die.
I realize DVD movies are more mainstream, akin to VHS, rather than LD's which really catered to videophiles. Today, DVD reigns. But now there's a Super DVD format making it's way into stores.
And since the medium is all digital, is it a matter of delivery rather than the format? With the adaptation of high speed delivery in more households, will we see the day where DVD's become obselete?
The CD/DVD size discs have become a defacto standard. That size disc will be popular for a long time. Future revisions of disc based movies will be backwards compatible with the current discs.
The future of the CD sized disc looks good.
And since the medium is all digital, is it a matter of delivery rather than the format? With the adaptation of high speed delivery in more households, will we see the day where DVD's become obselete?
Well a few things could happen. I believe the most likely will be this.
DVD-SD (Standard Definition) may eventually be replace or at the very least augmented by VoD(Video on Demand) using something like H.264 compression(the HD-DVD standard). This would shrink the data enough to stream or download.
HD-DVD- Will uses H.264 and allow for 4 hrs of HiDef video on a 30GB disc the same size as todays current DVDs. Of course Sony has Blu-Ray which holds up to 50GB but they're shackling it with MPEG2 which means the extra space it offers is negated by the compression format. Ideally we'd love to have Blu-Ray and H.264. Imagine 6hrs of HiDef video!!! <drool>
DVDs however will be here for a while. Even when HD-DVDs come I'm only going to upgrade my favorite movies like LotR Starwars, Matrix and others. For most everything else DVD upsampled will be fine.
That said, of course formats will change over time. I'm happy with my library of 400+ DVDs and I don't see the format going away any time soon. I also think that any coming DVD formats will certainly be implemented with backward compatible players. But hell, I don't think that most large-screen monitors have come along in quality yet to fully take advantage of what current DVD standards have to offer.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Well a few things could happen. I believe the most likely will be this.
DVD-SD (Standard Definition) may eventually be replace or at the very least augmented by VoD(Video on Demand) using something like H.264 compression(the HD-DVD standard). This would shrink the data enough to stream or download.
HD-DVD- Will uses H.264 and allow for 4 hrs of HiDef video on a 30GB disc the same size as todays current DVDs. Of course Sony has Blu-Ray which holds up to 50GB but they're shackling it with MPEG2 which means the extra space it offers is negated by the compression format. Ideally we'd love to have Blu-Ray and H.264. Imagine 6hrs of HiDef video!!! <drool>
DVDs however will be here for a while. Even when HD-DVDs come I'm only going to upgrade my favorite movies like LotR Starwars, Matrix and others. For most everything else DVD upsampled will be fine.
I just want the very best high-definition video quality with an absolute minimum compression artifacts. Will any of these formats deliver near-uncompressed video quality? I doubt it -- not at those data rates. The only real videophile format will offer D-VHS D-Theater quality on a regular disc. I'm not sure we're there yet.
LaserDiscs never caught on here except with Asian households, it seemed like. They were very popular as Karaoke (Kah-rah-okay) machines.
Originally posted by sunrein
These new formats that provide relatively incremental change in fidelity will be much harder to push.
This is true if you haven't invested in a high-definition television/monitor. However, once you've seen Monday Night Football or any primetime sitcoms and dramas in HD, you'll see how bad DVDs really are. You're comparing roughly 6 Mbps 480p to 15 Mbps 720p or 20 Mbps 1080i.
Originally posted by DMBand0026
Yeah, HDTV is pretty sweet. Although I don't think the quality of a DVD is bad, HD is just impossible to beat. Any HD DVD player I buy has to be compatible with older DVDs though. I think the DVD will be replaced by the HD DVD, but it will take longer to catch on due to the fact that not everyone knows and understands the benefits of HD.
You mean until they see HDTV running on a decent sized screen
I feel like Eugene. When you see HDTV it almost makes you mad that you've had to endure NTSC(Never The Same Color) Televisions for so long. Bring on my HD-DVD! I'll be ready in a couple of years with a 55" DLP monitor.
Originally posted by hmurchison
You mean until they see HDTV running on a decent sized screen
I feel like Eugene. When you see HDTV it almost makes you mad that you've had to endure NTSC(Never The Same Color) Televisions for so long. Bring on my HD-DVD! I'll be ready in a couple of years with a 55" DLP monitor.
I know, but even than, they just don't get it.
I love what HD is, the quality is awesome, but I'm a little short on the cash at the time, so I'm stuck with regular old NTSC.
With HDTV slowly becoming more popular, it will be interesting to see what happens with DVDs. I'm so spoiled by hdtv now that dvds look blury. However, it remains to be seen if hollywood will kill emerging formats in the same way that the RIAA has ruined higher-def audio. If so, then hd-dvds will likely be as popular as SACD and DVDA. In other words, the MPAA might limit hd-dvd players in such a way that hd dvds never catch on.
If regular DVD's now pale to what HDTV offers, I'm not so sure I want to continue going down that purchasing path.
Imagine forking big bucks for boxed sets like LOTR, only to see a "new and improved" HDTV version out within a couple of years.
Aren't blue-ray discs enclosed in plastic cases?
HDTV is cool, but how many stations are available in this format?
Look, Dolby Digital 5.1 has been around for some time now, yet not that many stations broadcast their shows in 5.1.
Another thing which is always slowing adoption of new technology is variety of different standards, look at dvd-r/+r, or even better screen ratios. why can't we have letterbox and ONE widescreen ??
There are few HDTV standards as well,.....
Originally posted by piwozniak
As long as you will be able to playback DVD disc on new enhanced dvd players, this technology may succeed, otherwise people won't be 2 happy to spend $$ on yet another player.
Good points. A couple of things to add.
Backward compatible discs aren't quite enough. There have been higher fidelity audio formats available for a while but all failed misserably as consumer standards. The RIAA made it so that you had to use 6 analog RCA cables instead of a single digital cable. Manufactures were contractually prohobited from outputting the higher resolution digital signals. If the same thing happens with hd-dvd, we can expect it to fail as well.
There are interesting battles unfolding now with regards to high def video interfaces. The battles are over how to limit quality over things like firewire, dvi*, and analog component.
It seems that digital-media standards now compete on how well they limit consumer use rather than with how desirable the formats are for consumers.
*sigh*
The RIAA made it so that you had to use 6 analog RCA cables instead of a single digital cable
Do you mean SACD?
I didn't know that, i know however that for example Sony is making SACD player with FireWire (ooops i mean iLink)
And BTW, thanks for all your help with my HT questions while ago, i just completed wiring and putting it all together.
THANK YOU!
Originally posted by Nebagakid
I would love to see a machine that would let me put in a Xserve-style HD which had all the Simpsons episodes on it and let me navigate as if it were a giant DVD.
That's the reason behind higher capacity DVDs :-)
Originally posted by piwozniak
Do you mean SACD?
I didn't know that, i know however that for example Sony is making SACD player with FireWire (ooops i mean iLink)
Yes, but also DVD-audio.
DVD audio players are prohibited from outputing high-resolution PCM signals. Only analog output is allowed.
Most people are astounded when they hear this. But yes, it really is that bad. The recording industry has purposely crippled all of their next generation formats and interfaces.
Will hollywood follow suit?
The DVD format/quality is currently a bit too large to easily pirate. If they stay ahead of the curve with respect to fidelity (file size) then perhaps they can avoid the same fate as the record industry.
Currently, the difference between a downloaded mp3 and a store bought disc is negligable to many consumers. There is little incentive to purchase the real product. However, DVDs are significantly higher res than formats suitable for internet based piracy. DVDs also offer interactive menuing systems which are harder to compress into a piratable size.
If there are smart people in hollywood, they will realize that this is why DVD sales have skyrocketed while CD sales slumped. If they realize this, then perhaps they will move quickly on developing new, but backward compatible standards... and the DVD will be here to stay.
In our lifetime, we'll see standardization upon media which offers more resolution than visible at normal viewing distances. At that point, there will be a sense of finality, no more worrying if our media will be outdated. I think we're about 4 standards-generations away.