What is the next big thing?
I don't mean G6, G7. I am thinking more about the application of the technology. The next technological quantum leap is less important than what it will enable. For better or worse, the desktop computer changed the way we write. Word processing, and as an extension, DTP was revolutionary. It put a great deal of power to perform a very useful task into the hands of the common person that otherwise, was not possible.
The Internet changed everything again. Suddenly, information was freely available. It gave us instant access to information that, before, would have taken days or weeks at a library and in front of our televisions watching 24 hour cable news to learn. We now have access to a whole new community of people with unique ideas and perspectives. Because of the Net, we can be smarter, better informed shoppers. We can be better students, business people, you name it. Information at our fingertips in an instant. Wow!
Now, it seems that digital content is king. Now that everyone has a computer, we are looking for ways to integrate them into our lives. Rather, we are looking for ways to integrate our lives into our computer. The iLife suite is Apple's way of expressing this idea. Digitize your precious photos and put them into your computer. Make your own prints or share them over the Web. Digitize your home movies and share them on DVD. Digitize your music collection and enjoy them on still other digital devices. Make your own music and digitize it in GB. Microsoft wants us to digitize our television. (Not a bad idea, by the way.) All of these things are related to entertainment. It is all very enabling, but not particularly important. Digitizing your life just does not seem to have the same impact or have the same level of life changing importance as word processing or the Internet. In fact, this digital revolution feels more like an attempt to justify the current technology rather than an underlying purpose for it. There really does not seem to be an underlying purpose for it.
So we come to my question. What is computing technology going to do for us next? What paradigm shifting application will come along next? What will it allow us to do that is currently beyond our reach? Will it in fact require new technology, or is the technology already in place? Have we reached the point where we already have enough technological wizardry for the foreseeable future? Do we now just need visionaries who can tell what to do with it?
Here is what I would like to see. I want the next big step in computing to be something other than a computer. I believe that the desktop and even the laptop has just about run their course. I would like to see advances in miniaturization so that computing power can be applied to our lives away from our desk. I want to be able to place uncooked food into a microwave or oven, press a button and have the oven know what's inside and cook it according to my preferences that it already has stored in memory. I want a refrigerator with multi-temperature zones to recognize what's in it and cool food accordingly. The same goes for the freezer. I want a bed and pillow that automatically adjusts themselves to my pressure points, size, weight, etc. I want headphones that can not only cancel noise, but adjust the volume, tone, and balance to compensate for outside noise, thus keeping the sound subjectively the same for the listener no matter the outside conditions. I want a handheld or wearable device that can take dictation, automatically make grammatical and punctuation corrections, and format appropriately for any occasion. I would then be able to walk up to any smart printer and tell it to print out my resume'. That document would automatically update itself based on my current employment. I want to be able to take a photo with a smart camera and have the camera know what the lighting conditions are. It will know the right exposure to use and adjust itself based on its surrounding environment. After taking the perfect picture, I just tell the camera to send that photo to my mom the next time it detects a wireless network (which would be ubiquitous). It might them, automatically print out on my mom's smart printer. I don't want to have to sit at a desk to access the internet. I want my pocket device to have uninterrupted, broadband access to the computer. I want to be able to just ask it for any information and have it collect the data for me.
Well, you see where I'm going. Almost everything I just mentioned can probably be done already with existing technology. It just isn't being done. Size and bandwidth are probably bigger issues than processing power at this point. Right now, computers ARE the end use. I want to see the day come when computers become invisible enablers of something more important than the underlying technology.
What are your thoughts. What is the next big thing?
The Internet changed everything again. Suddenly, information was freely available. It gave us instant access to information that, before, would have taken days or weeks at a library and in front of our televisions watching 24 hour cable news to learn. We now have access to a whole new community of people with unique ideas and perspectives. Because of the Net, we can be smarter, better informed shoppers. We can be better students, business people, you name it. Information at our fingertips in an instant. Wow!
Now, it seems that digital content is king. Now that everyone has a computer, we are looking for ways to integrate them into our lives. Rather, we are looking for ways to integrate our lives into our computer. The iLife suite is Apple's way of expressing this idea. Digitize your precious photos and put them into your computer. Make your own prints or share them over the Web. Digitize your home movies and share them on DVD. Digitize your music collection and enjoy them on still other digital devices. Make your own music and digitize it in GB. Microsoft wants us to digitize our television. (Not a bad idea, by the way.) All of these things are related to entertainment. It is all very enabling, but not particularly important. Digitizing your life just does not seem to have the same impact or have the same level of life changing importance as word processing or the Internet. In fact, this digital revolution feels more like an attempt to justify the current technology rather than an underlying purpose for it. There really does not seem to be an underlying purpose for it.
So we come to my question. What is computing technology going to do for us next? What paradigm shifting application will come along next? What will it allow us to do that is currently beyond our reach? Will it in fact require new technology, or is the technology already in place? Have we reached the point where we already have enough technological wizardry for the foreseeable future? Do we now just need visionaries who can tell what to do with it?
Here is what I would like to see. I want the next big step in computing to be something other than a computer. I believe that the desktop and even the laptop has just about run their course. I would like to see advances in miniaturization so that computing power can be applied to our lives away from our desk. I want to be able to place uncooked food into a microwave or oven, press a button and have the oven know what's inside and cook it according to my preferences that it already has stored in memory. I want a refrigerator with multi-temperature zones to recognize what's in it and cool food accordingly. The same goes for the freezer. I want a bed and pillow that automatically adjusts themselves to my pressure points, size, weight, etc. I want headphones that can not only cancel noise, but adjust the volume, tone, and balance to compensate for outside noise, thus keeping the sound subjectively the same for the listener no matter the outside conditions. I want a handheld or wearable device that can take dictation, automatically make grammatical and punctuation corrections, and format appropriately for any occasion. I would then be able to walk up to any smart printer and tell it to print out my resume'. That document would automatically update itself based on my current employment. I want to be able to take a photo with a smart camera and have the camera know what the lighting conditions are. It will know the right exposure to use and adjust itself based on its surrounding environment. After taking the perfect picture, I just tell the camera to send that photo to my mom the next time it detects a wireless network (which would be ubiquitous). It might them, automatically print out on my mom's smart printer. I don't want to have to sit at a desk to access the internet. I want my pocket device to have uninterrupted, broadband access to the computer. I want to be able to just ask it for any information and have it collect the data for me.
Well, you see where I'm going. Almost everything I just mentioned can probably be done already with existing technology. It just isn't being done. Size and bandwidth are probably bigger issues than processing power at this point. Right now, computers ARE the end use. I want to see the day come when computers become invisible enablers of something more important than the underlying technology.
What are your thoughts. What is the next big thing?
Comments
and if anyone disagrees with me, i'm right. it may not happen anytime soon, but it will happen.
I've become cynical and grouch lately
To that end, miniturization and invisible connectivity are major factors, but the application of said technologies is what's key -- and it's one of the big reasons I switched from a Win32 platform to OS X (apologies in advance for the evangelical tone of this message!).
From the simplest thing: clicking on the "Sherlock" icon and having instant access to a wonderfully comprehensive dictionary (to verify the spelling of "ubiquity" and "evangelical", no less
It's nowhere near perfect yet, though.
When I'm in A&B Sound browsing CDs, why can't I initiate an allmusic.com search for a tune I can't quite remember?
When I'm in the market for a tangible product, why can't I simply find out what stores have the product I'm looking for at the price I'm comfortable paying? For that matter, why can't I simply verbalize a question ("Where can I buy a 256MB CF card for under $70 within 10 minutes of where I'm currently located?") as I'm driving around and be given an address and driving directions?
When I buy yet another piece of crap at a yard sale, why do I have to pay with cash? Why not a simple, secure and trusted electronic method?
Here's a simple one: If I missed an episode of "The Apprentice" (ok, bad example, maybe!), why can't I simply ask to watch it when I'm ready? Yes, TiVo does some of this, but I don't want to have to remember to program the damn thing; I just want to initiate a request. Oh - and I want to be able to do this at 37,000 feet, half-way between Calgary and Frankfurt.
Something with more significant social ramifications? Ok -- MRI's and CAT scans are pretty cool, but why can't something tell me when something's wrong? HP & Cisco have been advertising proactive diagnosis systems for large-scale networks for some time; I want the same thing made available for humans.
Admittedly, I'm no Nick Negroponte; some of the above might be downright stupid, but I think you can see what I'm getting at: ubiquity. Make it easy, make it seamless and make it instant.
My $0.02,
-John
Originally posted by ipodandimac
media players such as the ipod will merge with cell phones, and firewireless will become reliable.
I'm actually waiting till apple combines the iPod with a phone....
I'm a long time user of Nokia's 6x10 phones.
After a 6110 and 6210 I'm now using a 6310i.
Nice phone, but it won't work with iSync and it's starting to fall apart.
I reckon, if anyone can make cellphones better than Nokia it's Apple.
Also, I'd love to own an iPod, especially as a car jukebox.
but I'm not gonna walk around with two personal devices, it's annoying enough to have to cary around one such device...
so when a future generation iPod includes a phone, I'll be seriously considering one....
We currently have applications to manipulate multiple kinds of data: pictures, video, text, e-mail, instant messaging.
The manipulation applications stay. But ones like iPhoto, iTunes, Mail and iCal that are used to organize data must meld together.
It becomes possible to ask an easy question: What did I work on on a certain day last year?
You'll see the messages you sent, messages you received, photos you shot, pictures from your webcam that show how you looked that day, and the documents you worked on. You can see the playlist that was playing that day.
You can find all that your computer holds about a certain person. You can even use image recognition to find all your media with imagery of that person.
Microsoft is working on the technological underpinnings to this. It's called WinFS. Apple should better have an equally good system set up in about two years, otherwise Microsoft will (maybe for the first time ever?) have an unquestionable lead in technology. There is no hope that the Free Software community can make something like this "just work" - in two years they will still be catching up in graphical interfaces.
I started this thread because I feel a little bored with current computing. I bought my current computer, an iBook, because I was writing a book and I wanted portable word processing that could also handle the other basic tasks. The iBook just made the most sense at the time. It has not disappointed. Understand, though, the iBook is at the bottom of the range of modern computing. I will be purchasing another computer this year and I will carefully consider my needs. I will probable buy something like a fifteen inch PB. The things is, it will not enable me to do anything new. It will just allow me to do everything faster. I doubt I will even notice the difference. When at home. I work off of a 19" CRT so the monitor is not much of a factor except when I am out and about. What I am trying to say is that my next computer will be nothing more than a maintenance purchase. It won't be an enabling purchase. In fact, all I see in the foreseeable future are maintenance purchases. Slightly better performance doing the same old things. It is a little depressing for a technophile like me.
Originally posted by bangstudios
Here's a simple one: If I missed an episode of "The Apprentice" (ok, bad example, maybe!), why can't I simply ask to watch it when I'm ready? Yes, TiVo does some of this, but I don't want to have to remember to program the damn thing; I just want to initiate a request. Oh - and I want to be able to do this at 37,000 feet, half-way between Calgary and Frankfurt.
Interesting points. Maybe I could add: TiVo does *most* of this. A season pass negates the need to remember to record each episode of a show. It can be set from anywhere that has web access - and isn't that now available on some flights?
I am such a big fan of TiVo - because I watch just a little TV, not a lot. My wife's boss got it for us as a wedding present, and I thought i'd be 'meh - who cares'. Not so; it has made my TV watching an order of magnitude more enjoyable.
</unpaid promotion!>
Originally posted by jouster
Interesting points. Maybe I could add: TiVo does *most* of this. A season pass negates the need to remember to record each episode of a show. It can be set from anywhere that has web access - and isn't that now available on some flights?
I am such a big fan of TiVo - because I watch just a little TV, not a lot. My wife's boss got it for us as a wedding present, and I thought i'd be 'meh - who cares'. Not so; it has made my TV watching an order of magnitude more enjoyable.
</unpaid promotion!>
That's pretty cool -- and a step in the right direction (I must admit that I'm not famililar with everything that TiVo is capable of; we don't have the service up here in the Great White North).
I still can't watch the show while struggling to get my 6'6" frame comfortable in an Lufthansa "gulag" seat, but one can see where it's heading towards.
I do like Mac Voyer's enhancement to the idea: "Show me the 'Star Trek' episode where Picard becomes a Borg". Or in my case, "Show me the 'Apprentice' episode where Trump has good hair".
Wait ... maybe any technology has its limits!
-John
http://www.cbronline.com/currentnews...256e470038604c
Long article...
What it might mean is more technology down at a level where we won't interact with it, but never-the-less it will be there. So your fridge could reference the RFID tags of the contents. It won't be able to tell if your milk is almost empty, but it can tell you when it'll expire and offer coupons.
Your wallpaper's main function will still be to look pretty, but with digital paper technology when want to change it you just upload a new pattern.
Closer to the desktop/entertainment arena: video on demand. That's not new you say. Understood, but realize that there are vast hours of television that aren't available and aren't played in any syndication venue. With current offerings deteriorating in quality and profit, this huge backlog is a potential savior to the big networks. The BBC has already begun (using Microsoft's DRM, unfortunately) and US networks are sure to follow. Imagine CBS, NBC, ABC and so on firing a lot of production staff and turning into giant server farms.
Screed
Originally posted by sCreeD
We're on the cusp of what is called 'pervasive computing.' No this does not mean browsing the Web from your fridge or your wallpaper crunching SETI@Home stats.
What it might mean is more technology down at a level where we won't interact with it, but never-the-less it will be there. So your fridge could reference the RFID tags of the contents. It won't be able to tell if your milk is almost empty, but it can tell you when it'll expire and offer coupons.
Your wallpaper's main function will still be to look pretty, but with digital paper technology when want to change it you just upload a new pattern.
Closer to the desktop/entertainment arena: video on demand. That's not new you say. Understood, but realize that there are vast hours of television that aren't available and aren't played in any syndication venue. With current offerings deteriorating in quality and profit, this huge backlog is a potential savior to the big networks. The BBC has already begun (using Microsoft's DRM, unfortunately) and US networks are sure to follow. Imagine CBS, NBC, ABC and so on firing a lot of production staff and turning into giant server farms.
Screed
Yes, that is what I want, I want to order up a show, The network will know my basics (35 yo male) and commercials will be added to the program that are specifically targeted to me, by advertisers. Advertisers will not have to guess as to which show to endorse, but they could say we don't want to endorse specific shows. So no matter what I watch, commercials will be always specifically targeted to me. Or my wife if she should decide to pick a show, or maybe the entire family dynamic is taken into effect. Their would still be channels for new shows, that would not take these stats into effect, I.E. set programming. You would never want a state where channel surfing was eliminated. Advertisers would get their worth, becasue they would know exactly how many people saw their commercials, because if you switched channels during the commercials, the feed would pause till you came back to it. You would also have the option of how the commercials where presented to you, like one big block in the middle, or you could have tiered commercials, if you wanted less of them or shorter breaks, they would have Advertisers set for each level. An advertiser with less budget would be inserted in one position, while Big money advertisers would be able to take advantage of people who wanted fewer commercials by paying more per view.
Wow, did I just type all that, sorry for the ramble, ramble, ramble, but it was a stream of thought I wanted to share.
Originally posted by sCreeD
Closer to the desktop/entertainment arena: video on demand. That's not new you say. Understood, but realize that there are vast hours of television that aren't available and aren't played in any syndication venue. With current offerings deteriorating in quality and profit, this huge backlog is a potential savior to the big networks. The BBC has already begun (using Microsoft's DRM, unfortunately) and US networks are sure to follow. Imagine CBS, NBC, ABC and so on firing a lot of production staff and turning into giant server farms.
Actually, I see a different trend for this content: ABC, CBS, etc. all fading away or refocusing. In the on-demand world, there is no need for a broadcaster, a production company (remember, NBC doesn't "make" friends, they buy it from a production company and broadcast it) could simply make its shows available to paying customers. Advertising can be used to offset end user costs by having interactive media (which QuickTime currently has). In other words, you are watching the aforementioned Friends, you like the sweater someone is wearing, so, you click it during the video, the video pauses, and you are taken to a website to buy said sweater.
Back to the main point, I think the broadcasters have little value in the on-demand world as the production companies can maximize their profits by going straight to the users. If few people buy a show, it gets canceled. Forget the antiquated and moronic Nielson ratings, just keep/drop a show based on economics.
To the end-user, it is a wonder: buy a season pass to a given show and you have access to all of the episodes already released. When a new episode is released, watch it at your leisure.
The social impact is somewhat negative as television has become a "water cooler" discussion topic for people to share common experiences: "did you watch such-and-such last night?"
A good point made about viewer specific commercials. No more feminine hygiene or fiber tablet or Dell products for this 30-something male Mac user.
Screed
Originally posted by bangstudios
[B] (to verify the spelling of "ubiquity" and "evangelical", no less
Thanks for taking the time to do that. It makes posts so much more readable. WIsh more people wood.
I think the next big thing is the single-device do-it-all machine. I currently carry a Palm, an iPod, a cell phone, and a usb jump drive. Yea, I could use the iPod for data, but I cannot enter contacts into it nor call Bangladesh when I am over the Atlantic. I would like the iPod to grow into something that I can dangle whatever attachment I want off of... like a keyboard, a mouse, use a stylus, an iTrip, a voice recorder, etc. That would be modular and customizable for what each person wants to use it for. Think Konfabulator as a hardware device.
As usual, though, I think Apple will give us the items that we never knew we needed until we actually saw them. A surprise a minute. OS X is still wowing me these many years after adoption.
Once the screen resolution is there, home computers will move to the couch. Content creation tasks will always be better on a desk-top or notebook, but content consumption is going to happen around your TV.
I would think that one of the biggest things that will happen in the future will be truly portable computers, with speedy wireless internet at a low cost. Basically, network modernization, where hard disks wont even be needed in portables. Everything will be streamed.
The iPod, it wont need to continue to grow in internal storage, once there is the capability for the library to be searched and then have the song play across the airwaves...AWESOME.
Everything will recieve, it wont retain within a device...it will all report back to the main unit in everyone's house.
I predict a time where people take as much time planning out their in home tech specs as they do their floor plan, when building a home.
so my answer is, I think we've already seen the next "killer app", the next desktop publishing revolution...it's iChat a/v...sorta. I think that in ten+ years, people will look back at this decade+ and call it the "communication age". computers originally brought simple mathematics and data manipulation...then more applicable programming/productivity programs (automating accounting/payroll etc)...next apple brought the DTP revolution...and then the internet opened up limitless doors (but really without an immediate answer to anything). now that bandwidth and computers are becoming commoditized, becoming utilities, the next great age can come about... i agree that rich data management is essential, and convergence is buzzworthy, but what all these things allow for is the seemless flow of communications (read: not just data) through all aspects of life. more and more, new software and technology is/will be facilitating the open flow of rich, meaningful data. i think the poster child for the beginning of this age is/will be high quality, iChat A/V-like communications. As voice recognition is integrated into the "rich data" desktop, this will lead to seemless integration of meaningful data into our communications. suddenly, instead of being wowed by two-way comm. with audio AND video, we'll be commonly reliant on two-way audio, video, contextual data (think overlay of an upcomming birthday when your mom 'calls' you), and rich data.
ok, i could go on for hours, but i think this should be enough to continue discussions...
Originally posted by Mac Voyer
I don't mean G6, G7. I am thinking more about the application of the technology. The next technological quantum leap is less important than what it will enable. For better or worse, the desktop computer changed the way we write. Word processing, and as an extension, DTP was revolutionary. It put a great deal of power to perform a very useful task into the hands of the common person that otherwise, was not possible.
AAAAHHHHHHH!!!!! PET PEEVE ALERT!!! A quantum leap refers to a change in the quantum state of <insert favorite sub-atomic particle here>. It's a really tiny change. Outside of the lab it's rarely (if ever) even noticeable, let alone important. A quantum leap in computing would be maybe changing the brand of clear packing tape they use to tape the boxes shut.
Ok, I'm done now.
Originally posted by Whisper
AAAAHHHHHHH!!!!! PET PEEVE ALERT!!! A quantum leap refers to a change in the quantum state of <insert favorite sub-atomic particle here>. It's a really tiny change. Outside of the lab it's rarely (if ever) even noticeable, let alone important. A quantum leap in computing would be maybe changing the brand of clear packing tape they use to tape the boxes shut.
Ok, I'm done now.
Oh *YEAH* ? ? ?
I think concentricity is right... iChatAV is gonna become something awesome. Maybe we will finally get the in-home video phones we have been promised since decades ago?