Morgan Stanley raises earnings estimates, lowers G5 sales estimates...

messiahtoshmessiahtosh
Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
iPod, iBook, Panther sales seen lifting Apple earnings

April 13, 2004 - 12:13 EDT__ Morgan Stanley has increased earning estimates for Apple, citing better-than-expected second quarter sales of iPods, iBooks and Mac OS X 10.3 (Panther). The firm raised estimates for the quarter to earnings of 10 cents per share on revenue of $1.82 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of 9 cents per share on revenue of $1.81 billion. Morgan Stanley raised fiscal 2004 earnings estimates to 49 cents per share on revenue of $7.69 billion, compared with an earlier estimate for earnings of 45 cents on revenue of $7.50 billion.





Morgan Stanley said, "Our only concern lies with the possibility of disappointing G5 sales in the period." The firm lowered its second quarter Power Mac G5 unit forecast to 181,000 units from 212,000 units. For the remainder of fiscal 2004, Morgan Stanley increased its iPod unit estimates to 3.7 million from 2.8 million.

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Would 181,000 be the lowest number of PowerMacs sold in a quarter for Apple, in the history of the PowerMac product line?

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 11
    brunobruinbrunobruin Posts: 552member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Messiahtosh

    Would 181,000 be the lowest number of PowerMacs sold in a quarter for Apple, in the history of the PowerMac product line?



    No. They sold only about 125,000 G4 Power Macs in the quarter that led up to the introduction of the G5.
  • Reply 2 of 11
    messiahtoshmessiahtosh Posts: 1,754member
    Wow, even so..the "boost" in sales is only about 60 thousand units, going from a G4 to a G5. Something is wrong and I bet it was Steve's 3 GHz proclaimation. It wss nice he was optomistic, but as a CEO he should know not to do such a thing with the touchy fan base he has.
  • Reply 3 of 11
    macsrgood4umacsrgood4u Posts: 3,007member
    Something that continues to be overlooked is the statement Fred Anderson made at the last conference call. He essentially said that G5 desktop sales would never reach the sales numbers that the pro desktops (the G3 and G4 PowerMacs) had in the past. The inference was that Powerbooks were eating into desktop sales. This is not just at Apple but a trend of latops taking sales away from desktops industry wide.
  • Reply 4 of 11
    brunobruinbrunobruin Posts: 552member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by MacsRGood4U

    This is not just at Apple but a trend of latops taking sales away from desktops industry wide.



    Agreed, and I mentioned this elsewhere as well. Fred said at the time they HOPED to get back above 200,000 units. The problem is, they lump ALL the pro lines - G5, G4 towers and Xserve - into one number, so it's hard to say exactly HOW many G5 desktops are moving.
  • Reply 5 of 11
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by BrunoBruin

    Agreed, and I mentioned this elsewhere as well. Fred said at the time they HOPED to get back above 200,000 units. The problem is, they lump ALL the pro lines - G5, G4 towers and Xserve - into one number, so it's hard to say exactly HOW many G5 desktops are moving.



    It's not that hard. Apple sold a few thousand Xserves last quarter (ending December) and something like 6,000 PMG4s. So the major contributor to that number, by an overwhelming margin, is the PMG5.



    The Xserve G5 might be an OK seller this quarter, but I don't expect sales to take off (to the extent that they will) until (Apple's) 4Q, when the platform has been out in the wild for 6 months or so. Server customers tend to be conservative.
  • Reply 6 of 11
    macsrgood4umacsrgood4u Posts: 3,007member
    We should get answers on G5/XServe sales tomorrow. One thing that hurts is that desktops are much more profitable then portables so Apple does lose revenue.
  • Reply 7 of 11
    messiahtoshmessiahtosh Posts: 1,754member
    Even with the PowerBook's being bought more now than ever before, the G5 was supposed to make a lot of people upgrade their old crap. It doesnt seem to have happened.
  • Reply 8 of 11
    msanttimsantti Posts: 1,377member
    Well, if PB sales eat into PM sales right now, I hate to see what a G5 PB would do to the G5 PM.



    Of course, a sale is a sale I guess but I would think margins are better on the PM's.



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  • Reply 9 of 11
    chinneychinney Posts: 1,019member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Messiahtosh



    [...]

    Something is wrong and I bet it was Steve's 3 GHz proclaimation. It wss nice he was optomistic, but as a CEO he should know not to do such a thing with the touchy fan base he has.



    I think that this is the problem. My own perception is that among the Apple faithful, the release of the current 'fast' G5 was seen as a brief interim step toward a truly blazing G5. People are waiting.
  • Reply 10 of 11
    haxz0r jim dugganhaxz0r jim duggan Posts: 24member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by MacsRGood4U

    We should get answers on G5/XServe sales tomorrow. One thing that hurts is that desktops are much more profitable then portables so Apple does lose revenue.



    yeah poor apple...

    weird how people buy more of what is the best value to consumers, not the best value to the producer
  • Reply 11 of 11
    twinbrook46636twinbrook46636 Posts: 432member
    I'll be listening for when someone asks about the G5 situation. I can't wait to hear what (if anything) they say. Wait for it... Wait for it... Here it comes...



    Q2 2004 Conference Call



    There it is!



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