Dark clouds on Apple's horizon?

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Hi,



just read this Business Week Article. It deals with some of the Apple execs selling their shares.



Quote:

...does the cashing in mean these execs believe Apple's stock has peaked? A look at past insider selling gives cause for concern. The last time Apple execs sold shares in big numbers was in April and May of 2002, when nine officials sold 3.7 million shares. Over the eight months that followed, the stock tumbled from the mid-$20s to $14. "We can only guess why [the execs] are selling now and whether they know something we don't," says Kevin Conway, an analyst with Thomson Financial.



Could the real situation with the G5 CPUs be worse than Apple would like us to know? Perhaps bad enough to cause Apples shares to tumble down if it becomes public? Or could it be something else that's bad for Apple?



Whatcha think?

durandal

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    pscatespscates Posts: 5,847member
    I don't live my life by - and I make it a point to completely ignore - two types of people: Spec Whores and financial/analyst types (sometimes they're one in the same).



    When it comes to Apple and Macs (and my enjoyment, appreciation and ownership of them), they're never right about anything. Ever.



    And they don't influence my feelings and outlook on the platform, one way or the other.



    I don't know, and don't care. Neither should anyone else.







    So some execs sold some stock? My PowerBook is beautiful and I make money with it. And I like my iPod and iTMS. All is fine in Paul World.



    But I'm a self-centered, worry-free and easily-pleased sonofabitch, so other opinions may vary.



  • Reply 2 of 20
    hardheadhardhead Posts: 644member
    I would have worded it differently, but I agree wholeheartedly with pscates...
  • Reply 3 of 20
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Analysts don't seem capable of understanding that stock options are how Apple pays executives, in large part. The last time they sold off a bunch, the stock tumbled because everyone read it as a bailout before the ship sunk, and then... well, the ship kept sailing right along. Duh.



    If you're paid with options, you have to cash them in at some point. Generally, you want to exercize them when it would be profitable to. If their financial advice is that now is a good time, then it's a good time for anyone with options to cash in. That's about all there is to that.



    And, frankly, how anyone can speculate that a delay in one CPU could sink the entire company at a time when it has more significant sources of revenue than at any other time in the last decade - at least - is beyond me.



    On the other hand, looking at those numbers, you can sure see why Apple doesn't want to expense stock options.
  • Reply 4 of 20
    aquaticaquatic Posts: 5,602member
  • Reply 5 of 20
    crusadercrusader Posts: 1,129member
    Man, if I was an exec with an a$$load of stock options, I cash em out one in a while. Maybe I'd buy a new car and take a nice trip to Italy or something. If your an exec, ya have to sell the shares sometime.



    So no, Apple will be fine, unless they are not, then the won't
  • Reply 6 of 20
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,268member
    Amorph why don't you moonlight as a Analyst? We need to get rid of the chicken little ones currently dominating the Internet with their pessimism.



    If I had stock options I'd be looking to liquidate them into cash when Apple's stock was high. Hell seeing as Wallstreet is prone to such kneejerk responses regarding Apple it might be financially prudent to sell a bunch of stock and then snapp up a few more shares once the stock takes a temporary dip due to ANALysts "hand wringing"
  • Reply 7 of 20
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by hmurchison

    Amorph why don't you moonlight as a Analyst? We need to get rid of the chicken little ones currently dominating the Internet with their pessimism.



    Even if I did decide to stoop that low, no-one would call me.



    Chicken littles sell copy.
  • Reply 8 of 20
    buonrottobuonrotto Posts: 6,368member
    These execs would be setting themselves up for some visits from the PO-lees if they were trying to bail early. Not saying that this discounts the rumors, just that it makes it more unlikely. If they really wanted to bail, they might be wise to be more surreptitious about it.
  • Reply 9 of 20
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member
    BEHOLD!!! THE NEXT ENRON!!!! eccept this time the big wigs are democrats

    </causing trouble>
  • Reply 10 of 20
    the cool gutthe cool gut Posts: 1,714member
    Over the past 6 months, the stock has had a VERY good run, and is trading quite high considering how much Apple is making. If I had that many shares, I would have sold to.



    It just doesn't look very good coming off the heals of an announcement from IBM having problems scaling the 90nm G5.
  • Reply 11 of 20
    neoneo Posts: 271member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by a_greer

    BEHOLD!!! THE NEXT ENRON!!!! eccept this time the big wigs are democrats

    </causing trouble>








    -Neø
  • Reply 12 of 20
    dmband0026dmband0026 Posts: 2,345member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Aquatic

    http://www.macobserver.com/appledeathknell/index.shtml



    +1



    Someone tell them!




    That's the first thing I thought of.



    Yet another person saying Apple will be dead within the month.



    Welcome to 20 years ago. Call me when you have some real news.



    <yawns>
  • Reply 13 of 20
    gorebuggorebug Posts: 52member
    it's an informational issue. The fact insiders are selling their shares, tells the informed public that they think the stock is overvalued, or at the very least that it is certainly not undervalued.



    Buy low sell high right. here you have guys who know lots about the firm deciding that it is a good time to sell. None of them need to sell, lots of other income to cover their expenses. And if they knew that some whiz-bang product was going to come out shortly they would hold on and sell then.



    So, while this does not necessarily mean the stock is going to tank, it certainly leads one to believe that there won't be much upside in the near future.



    (All these finance courses are finally starting to have some value to me)
  • Reply 14 of 20
    pscatespscates Posts: 5,847member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by hardhead I would have worded it differently,



    Most people would



    Quote:

    but I agree wholeheartedly with pscates...



    Most people do
  • Reply 15 of 20
    I know. They're selling this shit to get the soon to be IPO Google shit.



    /hasnoclueaboutthestockmarket



  • Reply 16 of 20
    placeboplacebo Posts: 5,767member
    I really wonder whether there will even be a 2.5 GHz G5. Apple made no announcement to that regard, only stating that there would be a 3.0 GHz G5 by August. So it might be incorrect for us to assume that there will be an interim, and it seems a bit late anyway. I mean, who would buy a 2.5GHz in late May, when there's a 3.0GHz in August?
  • Reply 17 of 20
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Placebo

    I really wonder whether there will even be a 2.5 GHz G5. Apple made no announcement to that regard, only stating that there would be a 3.0 GHz G5 by August. So it might be incorrect for us to assume that there will be an interim, and it seems a bit late anyway. I mean, who would buy a 2.5GHz in late May, when there's a 3.0GHz in August?



    Umm...some coolaid drinkers that hang out at AI
  • Reply 18 of 20
    messiahtoshmessiahtosh Posts: 1,754member
    The one thing to remember, is that company employees that hold stock options in their own company, are only given a specific window of time to exercise their options.



    If Apple executives sold outside of this timeframe, then there is trouble. It is almost 100% certain that they did not do this, as it would be easily investigated and prosecuted. To me, this whole occurance is nothing more than a routine executive options exercise, it happens about once a year and is nothing to be concerned about. Executives sell in their allowed timeframe, especially when the stock price is high, which could be why a lot more was sold than usual.



    ALSO---As ATAT pointed out, Fred Anderson is retiring, and he adds up to 23% of the options sold. 23% equals about 12 million dollars he just cashed in on. Obviously it is a good time to sell if you are Fred.



    Just my 2¢.





    And this my friends, is why I want to work for Apple someday.
  • Reply 19 of 20
    placeboplacebo Posts: 5,767member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by a_greer

    Umm...some coolaid drinkers that hang out at AI



    You have a point.



    And they prolly won't ship till Christmas, again.
  • Reply 20 of 20
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Placebo

    You have a point.



    And they prolly won't ship till Christmas, again.




    or valentines if VT wants to do another super computer build up
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