Pakistan's stability in forseeable future...
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf himself is a high priority target for Muslim extremists. They almost got him not to long ago.
This begs the question, what happens to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if his western "friendly" government falls. Osama and crew will find themselves with a bag full of retribution that they won't be afraid to use! Perish the thought, but we have to be realistic. Musharraf has a lot of AQ sympathizers in his military.
We have a couple of hard choices. We need to "buy out" Pakistan's nuclear weapons "if" possible. Of course I realize how unlikely the possibility. India would somehow have to be convinced to give up the Kashmir region that is the biggest bone of contention between them. Agan, highly unlikely.
If Musharraf's goverment falls, of which part of the blame will fall on Bush's (and previous presidents, including Clinton...) foreign policies, the US and India will be forced to initiate a preemptive nuclear attack on Pakistan! I know that sounds crazy... Look at the facts. If AQ get their hands on Pakistans arsenal, they WILL use them. When you have Allah, or God on your side, you can justifiably do anything...
This is the kind of crap to make one lose a little bit of sleep...
This begs the question, what happens to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if his western "friendly" government falls. Osama and crew will find themselves with a bag full of retribution that they won't be afraid to use! Perish the thought, but we have to be realistic. Musharraf has a lot of AQ sympathizers in his military.
We have a couple of hard choices. We need to "buy out" Pakistan's nuclear weapons "if" possible. Of course I realize how unlikely the possibility. India would somehow have to be convinced to give up the Kashmir region that is the biggest bone of contention between them. Agan, highly unlikely.
If Musharraf's goverment falls, of which part of the blame will fall on Bush's (and previous presidents, including Clinton...) foreign policies, the US and India will be forced to initiate a preemptive nuclear attack on Pakistan! I know that sounds crazy... Look at the facts. If AQ get their hands on Pakistans arsenal, they WILL use them. When you have Allah, or God on your side, you can justifiably do anything...
This is the kind of crap to make one lose a little bit of sleep...
Comments
So now Mr. Shariff was hoping the Boeing would just crash somewhere.
Upon hearing of this, the army took over in one short, almost bloodless coup, allowed the plane to land, and handed power to Musharraf on a plate upon arrival. Note that Mr. Shariff was not summarily dispatched by Gen. Musharraf to Allah's garden of delights as is customary in those parts (and as was done in a previous coup to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto by general Zia ul-Haq).
Musharraf himself is both a representative of the old, as he's one of those British-trained officers, rather than the Islamist batch of military men who became numerous under Zia and onward; he's also a representative of the new, as he's not form the Punjabi élites, but a muhajir, that is: a ?new Pakistani?, who fled in the late nineteen-fourties from what is now the Indian republic (he was born in Delhi as Pervez Musharrafuddin, son of a civil servant). The muhajir community is often at odds with ?old Pakistani? communities, often resulting in wholesale massacres which the locals like to call ?communal riots?; among the muhajiroon are also found most native speakers of Pakistan's national language: Urdu.
From the moment he took over, Musharraf has been attempting to steer Pakistan to a more secular direction, which is not an easy job since the country had been sinking into chaos in the years of the corrupt governments of both Mr. Shariff and Mrs. Bhutto (note it was under Mrs. Bhotto's rule that Pakistan stated supporting the Taliban), although it seems to me the seeds of present chaos had been planted in the time of Zia, who turned the country into an ?Islamic republic? and re-oriented it in the direction of Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf.
Sicne its inception, Paksitan was fraught with instability. The disagreements over where the line of partition would go promted a muderous war in 1947/8 during which millions were slaghtered, and when Hindus and Sikhs fled to India while Muslims fled to Pakistan (the abovementioned muhajiroon), note that there are still more Muslims in India than in Pakistan.
Pakistan was then a state physically divided in two parts: Western Pakistan on the Indus valley, Sindh and the Western Punjab, Baluchistan, Pakhtoonkhwa (still euphemistically called the ?North-West Frontier Province?), and the Pakistani-held part of Kashmir (dubbed ?Azad-Kashmir?), and more than thousand kilometres across hostile India territory, Eastern Pakistan, on the eastern part of Bengal where the deltas of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra merge in a huge, disaster-prone delta.
The clumsy centralism and authoritarianims form the Western Pakistan was exasperating those in Eastern Pakistan, who rebelled in the early nineteen seventies to form the present country of Bangladesh. Shortly after, the Pakistani army was to face another uprising which it met which eqyal cruelty, but successfully; it was in Baluchistan, the western barren lands between Iran and Afghanistan, which will be later rewarded by becoming the testing grounds for the ?Islamic bomb?.
In order to succeed, Musharraf would have to re-establish odrder, to dismantle the various Saudi-propped fanatical groups (manyof them armed) which have been allowed to grow since Zia's time, and to build a strong demoicratic civil society able to dismiss him and resist any other military dictator like him. Quite a goddamn afully ingrate job to be sure, but even if he intend to make it (and I wouldn't know), given the present situation he'd be successful if makes it in remaining in power and die of natural causes.
Alas, Pakistan is a classic case of a ?failed state?, particulary when compared to neighbouring India.
So it is in everybody's interest Musharraf keeps the reins of the country, which is why the U.S. keeps propping[up that country infested with fundam,neta;ists, often linked to groups within the state security apparatus, which Musharraf is far from having fully neutralised.
While Mr. Musharraf seems keen on handling the day-to-day running of the country, steering it toward stability seems beyond his ability or anyone else's for that matter, in the forseeable future. That dies not preclude some pious nutters getting hold of some nuclear device, but if they oid, I highly doubt the U.S. or India could know of it in time to ?pre-empt? it. Should Musharraf be violently removed by some Al-Qa?eda-like outfit and Pakistan go down the drain t full, chaos, a coordinated invasion would be necessary to restore order, and would require the cooperation of the U.S., India, Russia, Iran, China, and the Europeans, which given recent events is unlikely to occur. So let's hope it won't be needed
Originally posted by hardhead
When you have Allah, or God on your side?
Just as a side note, ?Allah? (ﷲ) is the Arabic translation of the word ?God? in the same way the words ?Dios? or ?Gott? are, furthermore it is not exclusive to Islam and actually predates it; when Arabic-speaking Christians talk of their deity of choice, ?Allah? is the word they use.
I fervently believe that Pakistan's arsenal in the hands of AQ would need to be dealt with immediately? Getting emergency international cooperation would be a tough biscuit.
I think it's a topic worthy of discussion. However,I wish one of the more popular AI'ers had posted this as my political posts don't usually garner much attention.
or that pakistan is democratic
i was born in india & lived thru quite a few wars
in all this time i have yet to see india attack or start
a war anywhere.
i think the people in kashmir would much rather be part
of a secular democracy than wind up in a nation ruled
by militant nutcases
i find it amusing that people are arrogant enough to presume
they can convince other nations to do their bidding
that musharaf started the kargil war against india
& refused to take back the bodies of his own soldiers
who were killed in combat.
did any of you guys ever live in the subcontinent
for any period of time before making these statements ?
Originally posted by hardhead
Excellent in depth information Immanuel. I don't think the average "westerner" realizes how important it is that the General retain power here.
I fervently believe that Pakistan's arsenal in the hands of AQ would need to be dealt with immediately? Getting emergency international cooperation would be a tough biscuit.
I think it's a topic worthy of discussion. However,I wish one of the more popular AI'ers had posted this as my political posts don't usually garner much attention.
Yes it is a balance of keeping the domestic population of Pakistan at bay. Just look at the 2 hour speech the General gave in his military garb saying AQ Kahn was a national hero of Pakistan.
Fellowship
Thank goodness. This is quite unexpected and as far as I'm concerned great news. Not that the Congress party haven't been corrupt, and Sonia Ghandi has no political experience, but I'm a little less nervous now that the BJP are weakened. Hopefully we'll have a little less mosque-burning and Christian-harassing now.
This should be good for India/ Pakistan. Less fundamentalist zealotry, please.
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
Vajpayee resigns.
Thank goodness. This is quite unexpected and as far as I'm concerned great news. Not that the Congress party haven't been corrupt, and Sonia Ghandi has no political experience, but I'm a little less nervous now that the BJP are weakened. Hopefully we'll have a little less mosque-burning and Christian-harassing now.
This should be good for India/ Pakistan. Less fundamentalist zealotry, please.
you can thank vajpayee for being a great pm
& opening up the economy
sections of the bjp are nutcases but overall he
was a moderate & a superb diplomat
the congress has been directly responsible for some
of the worst atrocities in the country
mass killing of sikhs in 1984
emergency imposed in 1976 & people were jailed without
due process
forced sterlization of women in 76 etc etc
btw i lived thru each & every one of these events
i'm not happy that a non-indian bimbo airhead
will be the pm of the worlds largest democracy
listen to her speak she's more empty headed than bush
hssan, have you ever been or lived in india ?
it is a huge country & painting it with a broad brush
is like saying everyone here is a redneck
my 2 cents
Originally posted by Fellowship
Yes it is a balance of keeping the domestic population of Pakistan at bay. Just look at the 2 hour speech the General gave in his military garb saying AQ Kahn was a national hero of Pakistan.
Fellowship
i think you meant the mullahs
the avg pakistani is quite moderate...
infact 2 of my closest friends here in san diego
are from pakistan
...and no contrary to popular belief we havent come to
blows yet