Yager @ InfoWorld: Apple Controls Its Own Destiny Now
Yager's the chief IT guy for InfoWorld, and he's been steadily and completely converted over to Macs. He waxes rhapsodic about the way they simply refuse to break, no matter what he tries to throw at them.
So, while it's not surprising to see a positive review of Apple with his byline on top, the article is perceptive, and definitely worth reading:
MacWorld analysis.
The guts of the article are that Apple, like Pixar, is now autonomous under Jobs. Any restrictions on where they can go and what they can do are effectively transient. And anyone who they decide is in their way should be very scared. His parsing of the exchange with Sony's president is interesting, and it refines my own impression of the appearance. Mr. Ando was definitely nervous about what Apple is planning to do in the HD space.
I think he's right on the money. Apple is no longer carefully justifying what they do as "focus," no longer carefully organizing things into grids. They release what they want, for their reasons, and they know they're good enough now that Steve can claim to want to own a given space, and instead of jeering, there's trembling.
This is the tension point where, historically, Apple gets arrogant and screws up royally. But I don't see that arrogance now. Not yet. I do see arrogance on the part of some of the companies that are, or could be, in Apple's way. The next couple of years promise to be incredibly interesting. Right now, Apple is successful, growing at an astonishing rate, and fearless. The companies that are quaking in their boots should be.
And the most beautiful thing about the Yager article is that the first reason he gives for Apple's success—the lead justification—is precisely the most damning criticism that was levelled at Apple by the mainstream press for years. Their approach has, at long last, been vindicated.
So, while it's not surprising to see a positive review of Apple with his byline on top, the article is perceptive, and definitely worth reading:
MacWorld analysis.
The guts of the article are that Apple, like Pixar, is now autonomous under Jobs. Any restrictions on where they can go and what they can do are effectively transient. And anyone who they decide is in their way should be very scared. His parsing of the exchange with Sony's president is interesting, and it refines my own impression of the appearance. Mr. Ando was definitely nervous about what Apple is planning to do in the HD space.
I think he's right on the money. Apple is no longer carefully justifying what they do as "focus," no longer carefully organizing things into grids. They release what they want, for their reasons, and they know they're good enough now that Steve can claim to want to own a given space, and instead of jeering, there's trembling.
This is the tension point where, historically, Apple gets arrogant and screws up royally. But I don't see that arrogance now. Not yet. I do see arrogance on the part of some of the companies that are, or could be, in Apple's way. The next couple of years promise to be incredibly interesting. Right now, Apple is successful, growing at an astonishing rate, and fearless. The companies that are quaking in their boots should be.
And the most beautiful thing about the Yager article is that the first reason he gives for Apple's success—the lead justification—is precisely the most damning criticism that was levelled at Apple by the mainstream press for years. Their approach has, at long last, been vindicated.
Comments
But as far as I can tell, Mac market share is still barely holding, if not declining. Their PowerMac and even PowerBook sales have dropped through the floor, even after the long awaited PowerMac G5. I'm still not convinced that, 1) Windows users will switch, and 2) over a period of a few years, Windows Media-based music stores and players won't become dominant. If it turns out that Windows users just don't want to bother with switching to Mac, and over the long haul would rather stick with the Windows Media format for whatever clever reasons MS comes up with and makes an integral part of Windows, then this nice run won't last very long.
Apple lost the PC war because MS realized that it wasn't who controlled the hardware, but who controlled the OS that truly ruled. Apple is poised to win the media war because they realized that it isn't who owns the OS, it's who controls the formats... and that open formats are much more palatable in this time when many are feeling burned by MS. Instead of trying to shove it down everyone's throats, ala MS, they've been quietly building support from the grassroots level (content production), and making it transparent and simple to migrate that content to any level of detail or bandwidth. Only now, after much of the support has been built, are we seeing the public deployment on the consumer end. I mean jeez, how many years ago was it that MPEG-4's file format was decided to be based heavily on (read as: almost identical to) the QuickTime .mov file format? Those were the seeds. It's been a long strategic road.
But I have to admit that in the threads a year or so ago about the iPod and iTMS, I would have predicted that, by now, MS would have somehow been able to leverage their OS monopoly into this digital music segment. Although that certainly hasn't happened yet, it may, and I still am not convinced that Apple can get more people to use Macs. If there's a good strategy to do it, though, this is it: iTMS/iPod -> Apple is cool -> Mac mini.
Originally posted by BRussell
So is there revenue for Apple with this mpeg-4 and h.264? My understanding is that Apple is a licensee, so they're paying like everyone else, rather than collecting.
Yes they are. Remember how the held back QickTime 6 (?) because the MPEG-LA offered them really bad licensing contracts?
They make money with their content creation software (Final Cut et al.).
Originally posted by BRussell
But I have to admit that in the threads a year or so ago about the iPod and iTMS, I would have predicted that, by now, MS would have somehow been able to leverage their OS monopoly into this digital music segment. Although that certainly hasn't happened yet, it may, and I still am not convinced that Apple can get more people to use Macs. If there's a good strategy to do it, though, this is it: iTMS/iPod -> Apple is cool -> Mac mini.
The thing that that analysis misses is that the one area where Windows never unseated the Mac is content creation. Now, the next great thing revolves around all that content, and the companies involved have two decades of trust in Apple, and they've seen enough of MS' tactics not to trust them at all. The company that coined the word "multimedia" held on to that one crucial area just long enough for the digital media revolution to start, and now they're in a position of advantage. If Apple proposes a file format, it's assumed to be offered in good faith; if MS does, there are people looking for strings.
That's why MS wanted Apple to "knife the baby" (QuickTime) ten years ago, and why Apple refused.
I can see an MPEG-4/H.264 video offering with FairPlay over the top, but that's a slim little sliver of a proprietary layer over an open offering, as opposed to an MS solution which they'd own from top to bottom. Avoid the DRM, and you're still their bitch. Avoid FairPlay, and you are in the realm of any software you choose. Big difference.
Also, as a content creator, you can choose whatever platform or tools you want, push it out as H.264, and then place it on Apple's hypothetical video store. Or... use MS tools on an MS OS, and push it to MS's hypothetical video store. Again, big difference.
Part of the big win for Apple is simply: MS doesn't win the format war. If they ever do, they lock in for the foreseeable future the content creation/distribution/viewing from beginning to end, and they will close it up completely. Apple, by pushing open standards, is simply preventing MS from doing so. That alone will ensure Apple's survival. Without it, they'd be utterly screwed. Note this means that doesn't mean that *Apple* will be able to lock it all up tight, only that they'll have the opportunity to make some serious cash with their top notch offerings.
greedy M$ is doomed in the long run.
Gooood.
Originally posted by Vox Barbara
I instantly thought after that great read:
greedy M$ is doomed in the long run.
You must be thinking in really long time spans...
Way over-stated! The mac marketshare is consistantly shrinking. Even the much vaunted life saviing imac couldn't reverse this trend.
Originally posted by Kung Fu Guy
Way over-stated! The mac marketshare is consistantly shrinking. Even the much vaunted life saviing imac couldn't reverse this trend.
Last quarter—the first quarter in which it was available for all three months—it did exactly that.
Originally posted by Smircle
You must be thinking in really long time spans...
No, from quarter to quarter...