when will we reach a Universal Standard in computers?

spiers69spiers69
Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
hey all,

recently i was talking about computers with my father. He was complaining about how quickly the technology moves on (a few years back he invested in a 450Mhz G3 tower, just before the G4 was released). Complaining that older computers were outdated so quickly (he's still running OS 9).... etc, etc



And he asked me, hypothetically, "when will it get to the point where they stop evolving?"

being a teenager i wasn't paying too much attention to him (afterall, i'd heard these complaints pretty often before), and simply replied "never".



He more or less said, "No, they will. Look at the car...." and then he got me thinking... he's right. The car: sure, every year new technology is poured into it, but it more-or-less stays the same....



so when will computers reach this point? The point where the average home-based computer ISN'T outdated in a few years, but can be easily tuned and upgraded so that it stays up-to-date.



Admittedly, big business will always want the latest and greatest, and this is understandable. But surely we'll reach the point where home-users won't need major upgrades.



Part of me says that im just talking rubbish, but maybe it could happen. In a decade the average home computer on the market will probably be atleast half as good as today's Super Computers.....



Anyway, i have little to no knowledge on how computers work, this is all purely speculation. But your comments are welcome.



-My 2¢

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 7
    midgcoolmidgcool Posts: 19member
    Probably never, about the car, youve got the fuel cell out in a few years, so that is a pretty major development. As long as money and capitalism exist companies will always strive to make the best product, and therefore new technology and advances would be made to beat their competitors.
  • Reply 2 of 7
    cybermonkeycybermonkey Posts: 604member
    The PC market has/had been at that point for a while now hence the need for dual core CPU's to keep things moving along. Tell your dad things will settle down when apple goes intel next year, though being apple you can bet they'll still keep the product line fresh
  • Reply 3 of 7
    skatmanskatman Posts: 609member
    To say that all cars these days are the same is the same as saying that all computers today are the same. It's a very large oversimplification.
  • Reply 4 of 7
    cosmonutcosmonut Posts: 4,872member
    I'd say we'll reach that point when someone develops a system on a chip that is low power and uses real-time processing for all data. No render times. No waiting for something to download. You want it now, it's done now.



    That's a long way off...or is it?
  • Reply 5 of 7
    splinemodelsplinemodel Posts: 7,311member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by spiers69

    And he asked me, hypothetically, "when will it get to the point where they stop evolving?"



    Not in his lifetime. Probably not in your lifetime either. It wasn't until computer controls hit the mainstream in the late 80's, I'd argue, that the gasoline/petrol car really plateaued. Before that, everyone was flirting with all sorts of proprietary technologies.



    What's more of concern is the date when computers get sufficiently capable that you'll only need to replace them at the same interval as you replace a car, without losing much functionality. I'd argue that milestone is around the corner. I think the laptop will become the dominant form factor within the next ten years, and that the industry as a whole will become more like the consumer electronics industry.



    The other big milestone (that has already happened) is that it's clear that it's impossible to compete in the OS market without an open source platform. I think the fact that Microsoft can't put Longhorn together is the perfect example here. It might not be obvious, but OS X is something special: it's a living culmination of 30 years of theoretical computer science in an easy to configure package. Linux is also "living" (i.e. new technologies are easy to integrate), but it's a pain in the ass to deal with.



    These are undeniably good things for Apple. Buy Apple stock.
  • Reply 6 of 7
    hirohiro Posts: 2,663member
    Computers have plateaued as much as cars have.



    More Mhz, more HP.



    More RAM and HD capacity, bigger fuel tanks, trunks, interior space, etc.



    More low power components, more fuel efficient.



    Better busses and motherboards, better tires.



    Need I go on?



    Your fathers analogy is plain wrong when you look inside the box. If you only look at the steering wheels pedals shifter and dash, thats just a user interface; mice etc? Those are relatively stable but not reasons to avoid having to buy another car or computer. "Son, even though this 1978 pickup can't go over 25MPH anymore, it belches great amounts of oil, and the suspension can't handle any load in the bed, I won't buy a new one because the steeing wheel on this one is still good. And I think I will stay with command line DOS on the 1982 IBM PC because I can use ..."
  • Reply 7 of 7
    cybermonkeycybermonkey Posts: 604member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Hiro





    Your fathers analogy is plain wrong when you look inside the box. If you only look at the steering wheels pedals shifter and dash, thats just a user interface; mice etc? Those are relatively stable but not reasons to avoid having to buy another car or computer. "Son, even though this 1978 pickup can't go over 25MPH anymore, it belches great amounts of oil, and the suspension can't handle any load in the bed, I won't buy a new one because the steeing wheel on this one is still good. And I think I will stay with command line DOS on the 1982 IBM PC because I can use ..."



    Do you know my dad?



    What gets me is these people that go out and buy those expensives CPU upgrades for there macs when you could have a nice newer budget mac instead
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