Hurricane Season 2006

rokrok
Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
well, i'm not on the gulf coast anymore, but i've got major interest in weather down there, having been through such bad seasons the past three years, and i am sure that everyone in louisiana is now watching the first real threat intently, even if it is a long way out. Trop Storm Chris, with a projected path that is about as bad as possible.







a friend of ours in louisiana works the rigs in the gulf, and he said back in MARCH the water was already 80 degrees. if that storm hits the gulf with it being this friggin' hot, well, it may be the earliest cat5 ever in a season (just my vague knowledge on that).



fingers crossed it decides to just dissipate into gentle showers, or gets some power sucked out of it by the islands across the caribbean before it can get terribly bad. and then we get to wait for the next one, and the next, and the next...

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 9
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    Is there a place that shows temperature gradients of the oceans and Caribbean? The weather channel page used to have it, but no longer - and it would be pretty useful when trying to figure out how strong a storm is likely to get.
  • Reply 2 of 9
    I don't think anyone in New Orleans is worried about that. It is way too far out. Besides, we're not even close to Cat 3+ season yet and the oceans are several degrees cooler than they were last summer at this point.
  • Reply 3 of 9
    playmakerplaymaker Posts: 511member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by rok

    well, i'm not on the gulf coast anymore, but i've got major interest in weather down there, having been through such bad seasons the past three years, and i am sure that everyone in louisiana is now watching the first real threat intently, even if it is a long way out. Trop Storm Chris, with a projected path that is about as bad as possible.







    a friend of ours in louisiana works the rigs in the gulf, and he said back in MARCH the water was already 80 degrees. if that storm hits the gulf with it being this friggin' hot, well, it may be the earliest cat5 ever in a season (just my vague knowledge on that).



    fingers crossed it decides to just dissipate into gentle showers, or gets some power sucked out of it by the islands across the caribbean before it can get terribly bad. and then we get to wait for the next one, and the next, and the next...




    Hey Rok! sad to hear you moved out of the area but understandable. I as well as my entire family still live here and I can assure you that any storm that forms has everyones attention regardless of what anyone tells you. I think it's a long way out but my wife and I are taking daily notice. Take care brother.
  • Reply 4 of 9
    ppp1182ppp1182 Posts: 19member
    Be careful when you say everyone, because I am not talking out my ____. I live in the CBD of New Orleans.
  • Reply 5 of 9
    rokrok Posts: 3,519member
    first of all, doh! i meant for this to be in appleoutsider. mods, if you have nothing better to do, please move...



    p.s. playmaker, believe me when i say the hurricanes had nothing to do with our move. my wife got a swank new job in ottawa, an offer we'd have to be morons to have her turn down. it does mean i have to, once again, uprroot and make do with whatever "point b" has to offer, but we were ready and able to do the long haul on the gulf coast.
  • Reply 6 of 9
    rokrok Posts: 3,519member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by ppp1182

    I don't think anyone in New Orleans is worried about that. It is way too far out. Besides, we're not even close to Cat 3+ season yet and the oceans are several degrees cooler than they were last summer at this point.



    man, the oceans have nothing to do with it. it's the gulf, pure and simple, and wether it hits a front hard enough while over the gulf to take some shear force off its winds (like a buzzsaw hitting a nail in soft wood). just like katrina was nothing until it hit the west side of florida and went "well, this is GREAT!", and it went from cat1 off florida to cat3 OVERNIGHT with no signs of slowing down, and the rest is history. my concern is, of course, it shooting the gap between florida and cuba on this projected path, meaning no slowdowns due to land mass interference. also, new orleans and mississippi are in no condition to weather ANYthing right now. remember last year, how Cindy "loosened up" everything a few weeks before katrina? and that was just on the cusp of a tropical storm/category1 and all of bucktowm, gentilly and down elysian fields were a wreck (that's where i worked, near UNO).



    the real pisser about tropical storms and hurricanesevery year is that they're always gonna hit SOMEwhere in the gulf every year. it's just a matter of frequency, intensiity, and people unfortunate enough to be unable to get out of the way in time (that inevitable game of "chicken" where you are waiting to see if the weather front ou hope will bounce it away will either hit it, or weaken, and also dictate which direction you and your loved ones evac to (just ask anyone who guessed wrong last year and evacuated EAST from new orleans to mississippi).
  • Reply 7 of 9
    I live in Florida so I likewise have an interest in the annual hurricane season. This link might find interesting to some of y'all. My former roommate at school was in the meterology department and one of his profs put it together. It's a few of the more popular simulation systems in an animated loop. Most of the sims have this current storm heading right smack into the gulf but not really intensifiying too much. You can tell the intensity by the pressure, lower the pressure the stronger the storm.
  • Reply 8 of 9
    rokrok Posts: 3,519member
    well, it seems that Chris will do us all a favor and fizzle (it's been downgraded to a depression and its track now has it crashing into cuba first at strong-but-not-crazy-strong wind levels) and land somewhere near the texas/mexico border (from the last track i saw from nola.com, new orleans' newspaper/news site).



    guess i'm a little gunshy now on behalf of the gulf coast... probably will be for, oh, until retirement.
  • Reply 9 of 9
    splinemodelsplinemodel Posts: 7,311member
    Chris isn't supposed to amount to anything, which I assume you all know by now.



    It's also worth mentioning that there have only been three named storm do far this year, and none have been hurricanes. By this time last year, there had already been a few hurricanes, and we were way further down the alphabet. In 2004 the storms hit Florida in mid August (Charley), Labor Day weekend (Frances), and early October (Jeanne). Ivan was somewhere in there too, but I don't remember it so well because it didn't come near Melbourne.



    So there's plenty of reason to still be cautious.
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