Apple upgraded by Credit Suisse on stellar MacBook sales
Following a recent trip to Asia, analysts at Credit Suisse equity research are raising estimates for Apple Computer based on stronger than expected sales of its 13-inch MacBook consumer notebooks.
In a research note released to clients on Monday, analyst Robert Semple said his channel checks indicate overall MacBook shipments are tracking at approximately 200,000 units ahead of his initial estimate of 580,000 for the company's fourth fiscal quarter of 2006, which ends later this month.
"Specifically, we estimate total shipments will reach at least 775,000 with a blended average selling price of of $1,100, driving upside of $215 million to our original $4.6 billion revenue estimate," he wrote. "We are also raising our fiscal year 2006 revenue estimate to $22.65 billion from $22.03 billion."
Semple said the MacBook is resonating well at both educational institutions and with students shopping for the back-to-school season. He believes the product?s $1,099 price point addresses approximately 50 percent of the notebook market, which compares favorably to the iMac, which addresses 12 percent of the desktop market following last week's price cut to $999. "Please note the iMac comparison is unfair as it includes a panel, whereas other desktop vendors sell panels separately," he added.
The analyst estimates Apple's gross margin on MacBook sales is consistent with the corporate average. However, he believes the company derives significant operating leverage when it sells more units than planned because the incremental operating expense associated with manufacturing additional MacBooks is marginal.
As a result of his checks in the Far East, Semple raised his fourth quarter earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate to 52 cents from 49 cents. He also increased his fiscal 2007 EPS estimate to $2.64 from $2.44, "underscoring the inherent operating leverage in the Mac business."
Looking near term, the analyst said Apple is poised for a busy week with its "Showtime" event on Tuesday likely to bear a new iPod nano along with a new video based iPod designed for feature length films. "At this stage, we are leaving our fourth quarter iPod estimate of 9 million (+40 percent year-over-year) unchanged until we receive more clarity into the new products," he wrote.
Semple reiterated an "Outperform" rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $90.
In a research note released to clients on Monday, analyst Robert Semple said his channel checks indicate overall MacBook shipments are tracking at approximately 200,000 units ahead of his initial estimate of 580,000 for the company's fourth fiscal quarter of 2006, which ends later this month.
"Specifically, we estimate total shipments will reach at least 775,000 with a blended average selling price of of $1,100, driving upside of $215 million to our original $4.6 billion revenue estimate," he wrote. "We are also raising our fiscal year 2006 revenue estimate to $22.65 billion from $22.03 billion."
Semple said the MacBook is resonating well at both educational institutions and with students shopping for the back-to-school season. He believes the product?s $1,099 price point addresses approximately 50 percent of the notebook market, which compares favorably to the iMac, which addresses 12 percent of the desktop market following last week's price cut to $999. "Please note the iMac comparison is unfair as it includes a panel, whereas other desktop vendors sell panels separately," he added.
The analyst estimates Apple's gross margin on MacBook sales is consistent with the corporate average. However, he believes the company derives significant operating leverage when it sells more units than planned because the incremental operating expense associated with manufacturing additional MacBooks is marginal.
As a result of his checks in the Far East, Semple raised his fourth quarter earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate to 52 cents from 49 cents. He also increased his fiscal 2007 EPS estimate to $2.64 from $2.44, "underscoring the inherent operating leverage in the Mac business."
Looking near term, the analyst said Apple is poised for a busy week with its "Showtime" event on Tuesday likely to bear a new iPod nano along with a new video based iPod designed for feature length films. "At this stage, we are leaving our fourth quarter iPod estimate of 9 million (+40 percent year-over-year) unchanged until we receive more clarity into the new products," he wrote.
Semple reiterated an "Outperform" rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $90.
Comments
Even if Apple cannot hit the 2M Mac unit sales this quarter, the next one is looking like a sure bet, especially with the almost certain MacBook Pro upgrades and a potential new mid-range machine on the way...
We've now entered the period where analysts begin to move way beyond Apple's own estimates based on their industry/sales checks, which is great news for today (but likely to be bad news on reporting day in Oct. as it will have been factored in the stock price by then). And this estimate doesn't yet include the boost from new iPods and other devices.
So go AAPL!
Sales numbers for Mac Pros should also be very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if Mac Pro sales don't pass the 2xx,000 unit sales number achieved shortly after the introduction of the PowerMac G5. I know a few businesses that bought Mac Pros to use exclusively as WinXP Pro workstations...
Even if Apple cannot hit the 2M Mac unit sales this quarter, the next one is looking like a sure bet, especially with the almost certain MacBook Pro upgrades and a potential new mid-range machine on the way...
I certainly don't expect Apple to sell through 2M units this quarter, though, if they play their cards right, they could come close for the holiday quarter coming up.
From Apple's conservative forecast: ?Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006, we expect revenue of about $4.5 to $4.6 billion. We expect GAAP earnings per diluted share of about $.46 to $.48, ...?
We've now entered the period where analysts begin to move way beyond Apple's own estimates based on their industry/sales checks, which is great news for today (but likely to be bad news on reporting day in Oct. as it will have been factored in the stock price by then). And this estimate doesn't yet include the boost from new iPods and other devices.
So go AAPL!
That's right. As the quarter closes down, estimates begin to make more sense. We'll have to see just how much of an impact these new iMacs, Mini, and the Mac Pro have, if any.
Well, I've been asked by quite a number of colleagues and friends about Mac Books - they seem to be really popular
and with good reason. they are beautiful. the black macbook makes me want to lick it.
i wish i needed new hardware though but my powerbook g4 is still decent.
My mind has thus been blown.
Quick, upgrade the stock!
So, Apple announced a transition to Intel hardware, and PPC notebook sales slow to a crawl. Then Intel hardware is released and Apple's notebook sales jump.
My mind has thus been blown.
Quick, upgrade the stock!
They have.
Maybe they are fixing all the shutdown problems, and the video card issues. Everybody I talk to says the macbook is a lemon.
I hope this is the reason for the delay, then I hope they sell 2 million of these biotches.
I wish my Macbook would just come in. I'm happy their busy, but they said 5-6 days for shipping and I'm still waiting for a month come Saturday.
Maybe they are fixing all the shutdown problems, and the video card issues. Everybody I talk to says the macbook is a lemon.
I hope this is the reason for the delay, then I hope they sell 2 million of these biotches.
I have a MacBook, none of these problems.
and with good reason. they are beautiful. the black macbook makes me want to lick it.
And with the new Licorice-flavored paint, it even tastes great!
I have a MacBook, none of these problems.
Really? 3 friends, who talked me into ordering my macbook all had to send theirs back for repairs. They all recieved boxes with shipping labels in the mail and were asked to return their macbook. The turn around time was less than 48 hours, which I thought was cool.
One guy said his never had a problem with shutting down for no reason (but returned it anyway), the other two guys had one incident while working, and never thought anything of it.
Of the three, one of them told me about every 10 times he has to reset his graphics card or something with an interesting combination of keys. He said if he doesn't, it just gets stuck on the gray screen.
Nobody else has had these problems? Wow, I just assumed that was what the delay was with my macbook. I hope to god they are planning an upgrade or something, that would make it worth the wait.
Over the years I've owned a vast collection of Apple hardware (everything from a IIe through to a Newton (yes, I was the one that bought it!)) and I can tell you in one sentence all of the issues I've had:
I bought an iPod mini, kept it for 6 months then sold it - two weeks later the hard drive stopped working.
And that's the only problem I've ever had with Apple hardware. Now, either I'm insanely lucky or people with problems (and I'm sure there ARE problems out there) complain long and loud and are therefore misrepresented in forums and blogs etc.
Currently I own:
1 X 17 Inch iMac
1 X Mac Mini (and associated external drives etc)
1 X 23" Screen
1 X Macbook (2Ghz, White - I'm not into paying good money just for a colour)
1 X 15" G4 Powerbook
1 X Airport Express
1 X 30 GB Gen 5 iPod
1 X 2 GB iPod Nano
1 X Apple Hi-Fi
Currently I have on order:
1 X Mac Pro
1 X 30" Screen
And I'm thinking about the iMac 24".
So, that's a fair list of hardware NOT to have any problems with.
Food for thought perhaps?
Really? 3 friends, who talked me into ordering my macbook all had to send theirs back for repairs. They all recieved boxes with shipping labels in the mail and were asked to return their macbook. The turn around time was less than 48 hours, which I thought was cool.
One guy said his never had a problem with shutting down for no reason (but returned it anyway), the other two guys had one incident while working, and never thought anything of it.
Of the three, one of them told me about every 10 times he has to reset his graphics card or something with an interesting combination of keys. He said if he doesn't, it just gets stuck on the gray screen.
Nobody else has had these problems? Wow, I just assumed that was what the delay was with my macbook. I hope to god they are planning an upgrade or something, that would make it worth the wait.
Donlphi,
Over the years I've owned a vast collection of Apple hardware (everything from a IIe through to a Newton (yes, I was the one that bought it!)) and I can tell you in one sentence all of the issues I've had:
I bought an iPod mini, kept it for 6 months then sold it - two weeks later the hard drive stopped working.
And that's the only problem I've ever had with Apple hardware. Now, either I'm insanely lucky or people with problems (and I'm sure there ARE problems out there) complain long and loud and are therefore misrepresented in forums and blogs etc.
Currently I own:
1 X 17 Inch iMac
1 X Mac Mini (and associated external drives etc)
1 X 23" Screen
1 X Macbook (2Ghz, White - I'm not into paying good money just for a colour)
1 X 15" G4 Powerbook
1 X Airport Express
1 X 30 GB Gen 5 iPod
1 X 2 GB iPod Nano
1 X Apple Hi-Fi
Currently I have on order:
1 X Mac Pro
1 X 30" Screen
And I'm thinking about the iMac 24".
So, that's a fair list of hardware NOT to have any problems with.
Food for thought perhaps?
Don't get me wrong. Nobody can tell me apple does wrong. Hell, I'm looking at what looks like a PORT WINE stain on my 7 month old Apple 23" Cinema Display, and I still love it. I need to take it in I suppose and have them replace it if at all possible.
not the point... The first computer that I ever purchased (with my own money) was in 1998, it was a beige Apple PowerMac G3 (266mhz) ran perfectly until I moved from Chicago to Seattle where the moving people dropped the box it was in on it's corner destroying the motherboard. Luckily, the hard drive was fine, as it currently resides in my G4 Quicksilver, which I purchased in 2001. For the most part it works fine. I had to get a different graphics card which for some reason doesn't allow me to use iMOVIE completely.
I also purchased my first iPOD last year the day they released the new video iPOD.
I am certainly not anti-Apple, and I agree with you. The small percentage of people that have problems with their mac are usually complaining because it took so much convincing from you and I.
My problem isn't buying a mac, it's waiting for that "RIGHT TIME" It seems as though I have in the past always been a late adopter of technology. My family upgraded to a Commodore 64 from a Vic 20 a week before the Commodore 128 came out.
I'm a little shocked you bought that Hi-Fi thing... not the greatest device. I had it for a week and brought it back. It wasn't that it didn't work or do what it said it was supposed to do. i just thought why get that when I could spend a little more and get a great bose surround sound. Okay... it was a lot more than a hi-fi, but well worth the money.
I'm well off the subject by now. I just want the macbook to show up.
and
I love apple
I'm a little shocked you bought that Hi-Fi thing... not the greatest device. I had it for a week and brought it back. It wasn't that it didn't work or do what it said it was supposed to do. i just thought why get that when I could spend a little more and get a great bose surround sound. Okay... it was a lot more than a hi-fi, but well worth the money.
You are one rare person who decided he didn't like it after purchasing one. Perhaps you were expecting too much.
You are one rare person who decided he didn't like it after purchasing one. Perhaps you were expecting too much.
I think the only thing I didn't like about it was the fact that the iPOD sits upright with no option to lay down flat. I just invisioned bringing it to the beach (as they describe in the writeup) and everybody having a great time, until somebody walks along and catches the top of it with a beach towel and cracks the iPOD off.
I think it's an OKAY portable speaker system, I just wouldn't be tellinging everybody I payed that much money on a plastic box with mediocre speakers and the apple seal of approval.
That's all.
I'm convinced some people on this site and macrumors would buy anything apple put out, just to say they were the first to get it.
The new Apple LOG, it burns twice as long as the other brands, but also connects to your iPOD and Bluetooth Cell Phone.
90 people would be posting about how great it was and how they modified it to check their e-mail, calculate their monthly bills, etc.
I am into the hype, but you don't see me getting all excited about installing OS X on my orginal Macintosh or buying a newton.
Whatever... I'm happy about Credit Suisse and their opinion about mac. I love Apple, hate microsoft, but know the difference between a BOSE stereo system and an upgraded Toshiba Lunchbox with an iPOD Dock. I'm done with this thread.
I'm very excited about today!