The iPhone Question: Regular Cell Phone Carrier (i.e. Cingular) or MVNO?
OK, we're all hoping for the iPhone/whatever to be announced at MWSF... but the big question remains: will Apple team up with a major established cell phone carrier to offer it, or will Apple go the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) route?
Personally, I see Apple going with a major, well-known carrier (probably Cingular or T-Mobile). Apple wants to put this device into the hands of as many people as possible, even if it means working with the likes of Cingy. Although Apple would have full control over the user experience if they went the MVNO route (something Steve loves), no postpaid/contract MVNO has worked... ever. Remember ESPN Mobile? Everyone was predicting that Disney would have a touchdown with this one given ESPN's brand loyalty, but the results were about as good as a typical season for the Cincinnati Bengals, so Disney pulled the plug fast (and rumor has it that they're going to dump their family-oriented Disney Mobile soon, too). Helio isn't doing that hot despite the MySpace Mobile feature, either. Prepaid MVNOs like Virgin Mobile, Boost Mobile, and Tracfone work... but people have minimal expectations with prepaid anything.
All in all, I'm hoping that if an iPhone is introduced, that Verizon Wireless will get it in the near future after the initial launch exculsivity. Verizon has the best coverage by far here (plus they're the only carrier with EV-DO here in Fort Wayne),a nd I wouldn't want to switch carriers just to get an Apple phone, but get poor coverage as a result. Given that they have the most loyal customers, Verizon doesn't want subscriber defections like Sprint had... during the period when Sprint refused carry the Motorola RAZR, Sprint lost a ton of customers to Cingular, Verizon, T-Mobile, and even regional carriers like Alltel. All in all, Verizon might get "Sprinted" if they push VCAST Music over adding the Apple product.
Personally, I see Apple going with a major, well-known carrier (probably Cingular or T-Mobile). Apple wants to put this device into the hands of as many people as possible, even if it means working with the likes of Cingy. Although Apple would have full control over the user experience if they went the MVNO route (something Steve loves), no postpaid/contract MVNO has worked... ever. Remember ESPN Mobile? Everyone was predicting that Disney would have a touchdown with this one given ESPN's brand loyalty, but the results were about as good as a typical season for the Cincinnati Bengals, so Disney pulled the plug fast (and rumor has it that they're going to dump their family-oriented Disney Mobile soon, too). Helio isn't doing that hot despite the MySpace Mobile feature, either. Prepaid MVNOs like Virgin Mobile, Boost Mobile, and Tracfone work... but people have minimal expectations with prepaid anything.
All in all, I'm hoping that if an iPhone is introduced, that Verizon Wireless will get it in the near future after the initial launch exculsivity. Verizon has the best coverage by far here (plus they're the only carrier with EV-DO here in Fort Wayne),a nd I wouldn't want to switch carriers just to get an Apple phone, but get poor coverage as a result. Given that they have the most loyal customers, Verizon doesn't want subscriber defections like Sprint had... during the period when Sprint refused carry the Motorola RAZR, Sprint lost a ton of customers to Cingular, Verizon, T-Mobile, and even regional carriers like Alltel. All in all, Verizon might get "Sprinted" if they push VCAST Music over adding the Apple product.
Comments
now if apple could tap into 10/20% of THAT alone! i think they would go Pre-paid if the needed to, dont you?
I personally am not at all interested in a situation where a company knows they have me locked in for 24 months (or whatever). As long as I don't enter a lock-in contract I can dump their ass the second they start giving bad customer service or fail to match a competitor's significantly better offers. Paradoxically, as they know I can do this, they will play nice and I won't have to switch or think about the whole thing, just sit and watch them improve their prices and service without prompting.
I'm not familiar with the US market. Do the big carriers not sell contracts separate from phones?
Typically, they do not. In the case of GSM-based providers (Cingular, T-Mobile), you can, but it's a very small niche market. Most Americans get 2 year contracts with a carrier or go the prepaid route. Either way, they get a new phone each time.
Most Americans get 2 year contracts with a carrier or go the prepaid route. Either way, they get a new phone each time.
Then I don't know what you mean by "prepaid". Here it means buying SIM cards from food/tobacco stands that have their own number and a certain amount of money such as 50? preloaded. You then use that number as long as there's money left, then throw away the SIM card. User groups include people in financial trouble (can't get real cell contract), children (this way the parents know the kid cannot exceed certain money limit under any circumstances) and criminals.
Then I don't know what you mean by "prepaid". Here it means buying SIM cards from food/tobacco stands that have their own number and a certain amount of money such as 50? preloaded. You then use that number as long as there's money left, then throw away the SIM card. User groups include people in financial trouble (can't get real cell contract), children (this way the parents know the kid cannot exceed certain money limit under any circumstances) and criminals.
By prepaid he means you buy the phone and SIM card and then buy additional phone cards to pay for usage every month.
SIM cards in North America usually have to be activated and don't come with time on them.
Canada works like the US too. Except we get phones even after the US. Sigh.
By prepaid he means you buy the phone and SIM card and then buy additional phone cards to pay for usage every month.
SIM cards in North America usually have to be activated and don't come with time on them.
You could say the same about Finland as the cards I call "prepaid" are extremely rare for anyone to use as they force you to change phone number as frequently as some people change socks. It doesn't matter for the kids who are only going to be called by their parents - and in fact they can use the number indefinitely if they don't place calls and just receive them - and obviously changing SIM cards and numbers all the time can be a bonus for drug dealers.
For those who don't subscribe to WSJ:-) Here's main news..
Apple, Cingular Set to Team Up on Cellphone
By LI YUAN and NICK WINGFIELD
January 8, 2007 8:42 p.m.
Cingular Wireless is expected to provide wireless service for a new
Apple Computer Inc. cellphone, people familiar with the situation say.
The launch of the new phone and service is expected to be announced as
early as Tuesday, these people say.
The new product could give Apple access to the huge wireless business,
in which nearly a billion handsets are shipped every year, dwarfing the
nearly 70 million iPods Apple has sold over the past five years.
Several recent analyst reports forecast that Apple would sell millions
of phones within a few years, bringing in billions of dollars in
revenue. Some analysts go even further, predicting the impact of an
Apple cellphone on wireless carriers, chip makers and other parts
suppliers.
likely and seemingly correct.. in strategy insight.. and the ultimate
domination of the world!
"The First 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007."
So, here goes....
How do the iTV and the Apple Phone relate?
well, to start out with, they haven't been released yet, but aside from
that..
Once upon a time, Napster To-Go was created and the subscription music
service was born..
but, that flopped right?
right, but for the simple reason that it wouldn't work on iPods that
people already owned, and the mp3 players on the market still sucked.
a short time later, speculation surfaces that Apple was interested in
creating a subscription service
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=950
Fast Forward
Apple begins selling TV shows and Movies in the newly renamed "iTunes
Store"
Fast Forward some more tot Today
Apple has the largest online music library.
Apple has the largest online TV Show library, with over 56 networks.
Apple has the most popular Movie Store, and with the success of the TV
Shows, is sure to add more studios.
Apple is now KING of the Content...
but, there is anouther King of Content...
Enter Google
http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2006/...29173747.shtml
So, what does this mean for 2007?
The answer lies in iTV and the Apple Phone.
iTV
well, we already know a ton about the iTV...
but, quite your crying, The iTV has, and will never have, a DVR or TiVo
like interface...
why?
TiVo is dead.
The iTV will NOT include now or in the future a DVD or Blu-Ray player..
why?
DVD is dead
Blu-Ray is dead
HD-DVD is dead
(I can hear everyone crying)
I'm sorry, but the simple fact of the matter is, is that the iTV's
greatest feature is in Apple's Subscription Service
The service would be similar to Napster To-Go or Rhapsody, but on the
iTV everything would be streamed (with the option of saving after
download, similar to QuickTime).
For a low price, make one up (i like $24.99), you would get unlimited
Music, TV Shows, and Movies streamed to your computer or iTV device.
Of course, the iTV will funcion as a simple media streamer if you
opt-out of the service, so in reality, if you want one right now, and
you dont want the service, this dosn't change anything...
You would still have the ability to make playlists of streamed content,
or you could simply download it and listen/watch it offline or on your
iPod.
TV shows would be added immediately after broadcast.
The interface would be similar to Front Row's use of Movie Trailers,
but it would be much more powerful and be fully integrated in a
spotlight like search.
You would have the option of scheduling shows and movies to download
when they become available, you would have a list of shows to watch,
just like you do on your TiVo, but you wouldn't have to fast forward
through the commercials...
Certain networks such as CNN and ESPN would provide a live feed of
their networks with commercials..
the downloaded shows and movies would remain at their current
resolution for a while, but over time increase to 480p, then 720p, then
1080p (just like the Apple movie trailers). this makes blu-ray
pointless with it's expensive equipment and even more expensive movies.
For the price of a blockbuster subscirption (in my hapyy world), I get
everything
and of course, viral content would be provided by Google....
Before you shake your head and say "no way"....
consider the fact that the Movie Studios and TV Networks PREFER the
subscription model and are only "selling" them in iTunes because it's
so popular, but, in the case of the movie studios..that has yet to be
seen...
Now, for the main event...
Apple Phone
some people have wondered if Apple will even make a Phone, but the
simple answer to the question is...
They have too.
I took a class with this guy who asked the class if there was anyone
who wanted to buy his iPod..
I asked him why he was selling it, and he said that he recently got a
new phone that plays music, when he got it he thought he would still
use his iPod, but after a while, he used it less and less favoring his
phone, which he had on him all the time anyway.
most people don't purchase a phone with the intention of ditching their
iPod. The ditching happens over time, because people get used to the
convince of having their music with them all the time...
I always have my phone in my pocket, I don't have my iPod in my pocket
all the time...
iPod is dying....
The phone will be UMTS/HSDPA Only. No GSM. (shock and Aww)
If you don't belive that...why the hell did Apple put ONLY an Express
Card/34 slot on the MacBook Pro when you couldn't buy an cards for the
slot?
One of my friends works as a Cingular sales rep and Cingular recently
sent out a memo that 3G (UMTS/HSDPA) coverage was now in every market
with a population over 100,000 people. In another memo shortly after
that Cingular instructed sales reps to sell 3G phones, becasue the GSM
network will be phased out in the future like the TDMA network.
Cingular is going to shift it's services to a Packet Data voice
service....in other words VOIP.
For the simple reason.....it's cheaper.....and that means....more moeny
for us!
So....what's Apple to do?
Create an MVNO...but with a little class.....
I recently read about how much phone manufactures hate carriers,
because of their specific demands.
Plus, if it were to be on Cingular, like ThinkSecret has suggested, it
would break Cingular Music offering, which is based upon Windows Media
file format.
MVNO is simply the best option for Apple, because it lets them do
whatever they want. Steve & Co. cannot stand being out of control (a la
iTunes fixed pricing)
There has been a ton of speculation over whether the MVNO will be
though Cingular or Tmobile...
but, sit back for this...
how about both of them?
why not?
The phone would simply use whichever network was availible, and if both
were available it would use which ever was cheaper for Apple.
and since this phone is packet data only (UMTS/HSDPA), the prices will
actually be a lot cheaper than what people think...
(in my perfect world, and all things apple simple....$59 a mouth, the
wireless sweet spot, for Unlimited Voice, Data, and Text)
actually, its not outside of the realm of possibility, considering that
Cingular offers unlimited Data on a laptop card for $79 ($59 with a
voice plan) and since I can pay a bit extra on skype or vonage and make
unlimited calls on my laptop....whats the difference?
Oh yeah...and Apple isn't going to do the silly contract subsidizing
thing...if people will pay $299 for an iPod, they will pay $299 for a
phone....
You will actually be able to just "buy the damn phone", and nothing is
really required...this way you can buy it as a gift or just for
yourself...
The phone will be unlocked when purchased, but, you will be encouraged
heavily to sign up for Apple's MVNO. If you live in the USA, it's
really the best choice, because going with either Tmobile or Cingular,
will gain you LESS coverage.
So, why is Apple going to create an MVNO?
to tie it in with their media service that your getting on your iTV...
the service wouldn't even be an extra charge, it would simply be
included in the wireless mouthly fee (my perfect world $59 a mouth)....
This phone wouldn't even be similar to an iPod, it'd be so much
better....
Imagine having Apple's ENTIRE library of Music, Movie, and TV Shows
with you EVERYWHERE.
Anything could be sent Over-The -Air directly to your phone.
of course, if you really wanted to keep the song (or if you weren't
using Apple's MVNO), you could purchase it over the Air, just like
iTunes.
The Phone would have a limited amount of storage, but it really
wouldn't matter, because, you would be getting all of your content
immediately over the air. You could even make streaming playlists
similar to Rhapsody.
Is this such a streatch? Sprit already offers full length tv show
streaming to people's phones. Verizon offers over the air music
purchases....whats one more step?
The way this can be accomplished is by making the phone UMTS/HSDPA
only, because this will keep the cost very low for Apple.
but, they dont intend to make much moeny off of the service
anyway....because the SERVICE (a la iTunes) attracts people to buy THE
PHONE!
well, thats all I can think of for now....will it hit at MacWorld?
depends on a lot of factors...but, I would say sometime in 2007...
Thanks...talk it up!