Investment banks stand behind Apple's move to cage its cat

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Several investment banks are throwing their weight behind Apple's decision Thursday to delay its Leopard operating system in favor of pushing its eagerly sought iPhone device into the market on time.



"Although the push out of Leopard is not ideal, we view iPhone as the driver of the next leg to the Apple growth story and this announcement should abate recent concerns about any potential delay in the launch, which we believe is more important to the stock," said David Bailey, the lead analyst covering the Cupertino-based Mac maker for Goldman Sachs.



Ben Reitzes, an analyst at UBS, offered similar comments to his clients on Friday. While acknowledging Leopard's slip as a bit of a setback for Apple, he said news that the iPhone is on track to ship in June is a positive given there have been some recent concerns of delays or push outs in build plans for the revolutionary device.



"We continue to view the iPhone as a significant opportunity for Apple and while initial unit shipment volumes may be small (we estimate 250,000 in fiscal 3Q07) ? we believe units could reach 2.7 million by fiscal 4Q08," Reitzes wrote. "We believe the iPhone trade-off (shipping it on time, rather than Leopard) is much more important to Apple?s top and bottom line long-term."



Given the 4-month delay of Leopard, the UBS analyst lowered his fiscal 2007 estimates while raising his fiscal 2008 estimates to reflect the push-out of software sales from the June and September 2007 quarters into Apple's 2008 fiscal year. Over at Goldman, Bailey recognized similar actions, saying "Apple has pushed $25-50 million in revenue out of the June quarter, and roughly $100 million out of the September quarter." He added that while the Mac maker "should be able to fully recover the software revenue in the December and March quarters, the delay could also push out some Mac sales as well."



Concerns over a pause in Mac sales following the Leopard delay were also a topic of conversation in a JMP Securities research note released Friday morning. There, analyst Ingrid Ebeling similarly addressed the delay by reducing her 2007 third and fourth fiscal quarter estimates for Apple while increasing her estimates for the first fiscal quarter of 2008.



Like analysts over at AmTech and PiperJaffray, Ebeling also expressed suspicion over Apple's stated cause for the Leopard delay, suggesting that a more truthful explanation may lie in rumors that the company is working on an embedded version of Boot Camp that will offer true Windows Vista virtualization under the new OS.



"The current version of the operating system, Tiger, is already considered steps ahead of Vista, and we have seen only positive traction in market share gain with Apple," she told clients. "The success of its ad campaigns and retail strategy, among other things, are all contributing to market share gains. We have even heard the delay could be due to waiting until Vista is fully supported on an integrated version of Boot Camp, which could prove even more positive for Mac adoption."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 30
    mydomydo Posts: 1,888member
    It actually shows good business sense and project management at a high level. For the OS X product manager, the iPhone software product manager and their bosses to all agree that one thing should be pushed off for the other shows that everyone understands what is and is not possible. Rather than some VP in charge of something s/he doesn't understanding thinking it can all be done (go team work nights and weekends) at stated deadlines.



    We need some of that where I work.
  • Reply 2 of 30
    crebcreb Posts: 276member
    And who truly trusts investment banks?
  • Reply 3 of 30
    macvaultmacvault Posts: 323member
    Is this suppose suppose to make me feel all warm and fuzzy? HaH! Banks are evil and want one thing - $$$$$$ - even if they have to rid the world of us humans. In addition to the Leopard delay, banks are also in favor of wars, junk food, diseases, etc.



    The Leopard delay SUCKS! No 2 ways about it
  • Reply 4 of 30
    It sucks for the diehard fans, but as a self-proclaimed fanboy, I am quite okay with it. I'de rather it be perfect.



  • Reply 5 of 30
    johnnykrzjohnnykrz Posts: 152member
    Quote:

    Investment banks stand behind Apple's move to cage its cat



    I'm sorry, the title is so corny that I can't help laughing hysterically.
  • Reply 6 of 30
    josa92josa92 Posts: 193member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by josephwinters View Post


    It sucks for the diehard fans, but as a self-proclaimed fanboy, I am quite okay with it. I'de rather it be perfect.







    I agree wholeheartedly that i needs to be perfect, not early. And the title is very cool. (Cage its cat...who came up with that? )
  • Reply 7 of 30
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Macvault View Post


    The Leopard delay SUCKS! No 2 ways about it



    Getting into this kind of a frenzy is only setting yourself up to be disappointed that Leopard doesn't have feature X or feature Y that you are hoping for.



    Take a deep breath, look at your Mac, swoosh Expose on and off a bit and just feel good about it all.



    I can't believe some of the whining going on around these rumour forums. Everyone seems to be forgetting something crucial about the iPhone. Unlike the iPod (which one could perhaps - in some limited sense - criticise as a gadgetery distraction for Apple), the iPhone does actually run OS X. All those people who are moaning about Apple "forgetting about the Mac" seem to be missing the fact that the iPhone is itself a Mac.



    Keeping the phone on track is essential for Apple. As a strategic move, the iPhone is a masterstroke - a trojan horse driving right into the middle of the PC-using iPod world.



    Which leads me to a question: given that the iPhone will be running OS X, what kind of clever trickery are they devising for it to be able to interface with Windows files? I'm presuming that there won't be a "Windows format" option on the phone like there is with the iPod. What kind of outside-the-box development is being required to make an OS X-powered device play nice with something running WIndows?



    Does this question have relevance for the nature of possible Windows integration into Leopard on Macs?
  • Reply 8 of 30
    tofinotofino Posts: 697member
    ... if the BANKS are for it, who are we to argue?
  • Reply 9 of 30
    desarcdesarc Posts: 642member
    "Getting into this kind of a frenzy is only setting yourself up to be disappointed that Leopard doesn't have feature X or feature Y that you are hoping for."



    i agree completely.

    for every intelligent post in ANY mac forum there are 10 posts complaining about anything and everything.



    do i wish Leopard were coming out sooner? sure. do i think apple is making a mistake? nope.



    you don't even have to look at it financially... apple should push back an UPDATE in order to release a NEW PRODUCT. Period. it doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.
  • Reply 10 of 30
    meelashmeelash Posts: 1,045member
    This story made it to the front page of Google news. Congrats AppleInsider staff!
  • Reply 11 of 30
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lonepilgrim View Post


    Which leads me to a question: given that the iPhone will be running OS X, what kind of clever trickery are they devising for it to be able to interface with Windows files? I'm presuming that there won't be a "Windows format" option on the phone like there is with the iPod. What kind of outside-the-box development is being required to make an OS X-powered device play nice with something running WIndows?



    Well, there's only three possibilities that I can see:

    A) Apple makes the iPhone's OS X bootable off FAT32.

    B) Apple implements an HFS+ driver for Windows, as an NT IFS (installable file system)

    C) Apple integrates such a driver straight and exclusively into iTunes.



    I think A is easiest to implement and also most likely. C is another possibility, and still more likely than B. B would be nicest, however, as Boot Camp users would also benefit from this, but this would anger Mediafour (MacDrive) quite a bit; not that that would necessarily stop Apple.



    Quote:

    Does this question have relevance for the nature of possible Windows integration into Leopard on Macs?



    Nah.
  • Reply 12 of 30
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,410member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by meelash View Post


    This story made it to the front page of Google news. Congrats AppleInsider staff!



    Must've been the snappy headline...



    Although, technically speaking, the iPhone is an 'evolutionary' product, not a revolutionary one. Revolutionary would be completely leapfrogging current developments or inventing a new product category. I don't believe they've actually achieved that.
  • Reply 13 of 30
    Yeah, Apple needs to get a good product out. At this point in time they are still ahead of VISTA so they can't make their next product better than VISTA in bugs, that would be the opposite of what Apple needs.
  • Reply 14 of 30
    bwikbwik Posts: 562member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Must've been the snappy headline...



    Although, technically speaking, the iPhone is an 'evolutionary' product, not a revolutionary one. Revolutionary would be completely leapfrogging current developments or inventing a new product category. I don't believe they've actually achieved that.







    That's like saying the iPod was not a revolutionary product. It came years after the first Mp3 players hit the market. Yet, overall I would say it was revolutionary -- in that it "caused a revolution" in the way people use that kind of product.



    The iPhone could do the same -- or if not, some OTHER company will design a BETTER iPhone with nicer design, features and tie-ins. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen, at all. Apple is being handed the smart phone category on a silver platter (brand recognition). It is theirs to lose. I do not think they will screw it up.
  • Reply 15 of 30
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,410member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bwik View Post


    That's like saying the iPod was not a revolutionary product. It came years after the first Mp3 players hit the market. Yet, overall I would say it was revolutionary -- in that it "caused a revolution" in the way people use that kind of product.



    The iPhone could do the same -- or if not, some OTHER company will design a BETTER iPhone with nicer design, features and tie-ins. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen, at all. Apple is being handed the smart phone category on a silver platter (brand recognition). It is theirs to lose. I do not think they will screw it up.



    I still don't agree. Revolutionary means causing a complete or dramatic change (among other definitions). Now, iPods and iTunes together might be considered revolutionary to CD manufacturers and distributors, but MP3s were already out there taking away their livelihood.



    iPhone evolves the idea of what a phone and a portable computer can be. Again, whole industries have not been (and will not be) destroyed or swept away... On the other hand, if Apple designed a phone that Google then supported with free phone service supported by ads... THAT would be a revolution in telephony.
  • Reply 16 of 30
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Macvault View Post


    HaH! Banks are evil and want one thing - $$$$$$ - even if they have to rid the world of us humans.



    And what do you think Apple wants? Pixie dust?



    "...rid the world of us humans?" Whoa, you need to get out a bit......



  • Reply 17 of 30
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by EruIthildur View Post


    Yeah, Apple needs to get a good product out. At this point in time they are still ahead of VISTA so they can't make their next product better than VISTA in bugs, that would be the opposite of what Apple needs.



    Yup, Apple was ready to pull the trigger and fire out Leopard should Vista rise to dominate the lands. Luckily (or, expectedly)... Vista is a POS so Leopard can be pushed back to the end of the year.



    That's how rubbish Vista is. 10.4.9 and (OMFG for the first time in a long while) 10.4.10 and 10.4.11 will still be holding Vista's head over the toilet bowl.
  • Reply 18 of 30
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CREB View Post


    And who truly trusts investment banks?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Macvault View Post


    Is this suppose suppose to make me feel all warm and fuzzy? HaH! Banks are evil and want one thing - $$$$$$ - even if they have to rid the world of us humans. In addition to the Leopard delay, banks are also in favor of wars, junk food, diseases, etc.



    The Leopard delay SUCKS! No 2 ways about it



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tofino View Post


    ... if the BANKS are for it, who are we to argue?



    Look, here's the 411. All the investment banks have planned for AAPL to rise to $100 by middle of the year, and $120 by end of the year... roughly.



    They are freaking out now because of the Leopard delay may cause some panic, or some sell-off.



    So, lo and behold, very easy, release a lot of "analysis" that says, NO WAIT THIS IS A GOOD THING!!, and divert attention to OMFG THIS MEANS THE iPHONE IS GOING TO TOTALLY ROCK!! to cover their asses. It's all about Ass Covering 101.
  • Reply 19 of 30
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lonepilgrim View Post


    ...Take a deep breath, look at your Mac, swoosh Expose on and off a bit and just feel good about it all...



    Mmmm.... yes it worked for me!
  • Reply 20 of 30
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by josephwinters View Post


    It sucks for the diehard fans, but as a self-proclaimed fanboy, I am quite okay with it. I'de rather it be perfect.







    Quote:
    Originally Posted by josa92 View Post


    I agree wholeheartedly that i needs to be perfect, not early. And the title is very cool. (Cage its cat...who came up with that? )



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by desarc View Post


    "Getting into this kind of a frenzy is only setting yourself up to be disappointed that Leopard doesn't have feature X or feature Y that you are hoping for."



    i agree completely.

    for every intelligent post in ANY mac forum there are 10 posts complaining about anything and everything.



    do i wish Leopard were coming out sooner? sure. do i think apple is making a mistake? nope.



    you don't even have to look at it financially... apple should push back an UPDATE in order to release a NEW PRODUCT. Period. it doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.





    Agreed. Now also all the whiners have no reason not to get into a Macintel by the middle of the year, with FinalCutStudio 6 released most likely this Sunday (NAB announcement Las Vegas), and Adobe CS3 on the rollout. Ok to be fair I'd rather these whiners... umm... I mean, valued Mac consumer/ enthusiast/ prosumer/ pro users... get onto these Pro apps and MacIntel, etc... on a pretty solid 10.4.9+



    Then look at Leopard as upgrade option and new fandangled stuff alongside AdobeCS3 updates, FinalCutStudio updates, etc... synergise in 2008 with MSOffice2008 as well.



    My parent's 3+ year old iBook G4 933mhz is doing fine for them on 10.3.9. I can wait until the end of the year before putting them onto Leopard 10.5.2 or so... They can certainly wait until the end of the year... ...It has 640mb RAM and I hack/mod-ed in a 5400rpm drive (Western Dig Scorpio, excellent, after a Seagate Momentus, IMHO...)...
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