Entry-level iPhone could boost sales to 25m in 2008

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Although everyone's eyes are on the launch of a top-tier 3G iPhone next week, the release of a lower-cost entry phone could push Apple to ship more than twice as many phones as originally forecast this year, says RBC Capital Markets.



In a research note to investors, analyst Mike Abramsky of RBC estimates that either a secondary, entry iPhone model or an unusually low price for the near-certain 3G model could accelerate Apple's sales growth between 50 to 100 percent -- enough to boost the financial institution's earlier forecasts of 14 million units in calendar 2008 to between 20 and 25 million, doubling again in 2009 to as many as 40 to 50 million phones.



Such a climb could lead to between $2.7 billion and $5.4 billion in extra revenue for Apple over its fiscal 2009, Abramsky says.



In exchange, however, Apple also presents a short-term risk to investors, particularly if the Cupertino, Calif.-based company doesn't release expected products or disappoints its audience with high pricing or a lengthy delay between announcements and actual ship dates.



These concerns are softened by Apple's skill at maintaining demand, according to the analyst. North American demand for a new iPhone is particularly high, with roughly 70 percent of those in an RBC poll who are interested in the device describing themselves as potential first-time buyers rather than existing users.



Apple chief Steve Jobs is also expected to play a significant role by himself: rather than simply announce an updated iPhone, the company co-founder is predicted to fully flesh out iPhone 2.0's new features in his WWDC keynote speech, which Abramsky speculates could include video chat, GPS navigation, and browsing enhancements made possible through the faster 3G Internet connection of the touchscreen device.



The combined attention should also contribute to Mac marketshare outside of North America, the analyst says, as additional iPhone demand should further aid the "halo effect" created by exposure to Apple's lineup.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 33
    I really must look for a job in which I can state the obvious and get paid for it.
  • Reply 2 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,569member
    Now Spam, what did I tell you? You remember when I said 27M? I wasn't actually joking!
  • Reply 3 of 33
    merdheadmerdhead Posts: 587member
    Here's how it works: release a premium product with a premium price tag so that its fixed in the mind of the consumer that's its premium. Later lower the price and release cheaper versions, while maintaining a premium version.



    Also, someone should hit AI with a clue stick. They state things that a certain and 'near certain' and things that will never happen as 'certain'. The 3G phone has been confirmed by the fact that Japan is getting it, they only do 3G. Likewise, no Atom processor in Apple's handheld products.
  • Reply 4 of 33
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,752member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by merdhead View Post


    Here's how it works:... They state things that a certain and 'near certain' and things that will never happen as 'certain'.



    Here is how it works: My brain slows down Friday in the PM and I can't make sense of what I read...
  • Reply 5 of 33
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 30,994member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    Now Spam, what did I tell you? You remember when I said 27M? I wasn't actually joking!







    I look forward to the market being disappointed at whatever the news is, the stock dropping like a rock, and everyone buying more AAPL when it does... and of course we'll all buy whatever Steve tells us to buy.
  • Reply 6 of 33
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 30,994member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    Here is how it works: My brain slows down Friday in the PM and I can't make sense of what I read...



    My brain's been doing that daily for years.
  • Reply 7 of 33
    boogabooga Posts: 1,077member
    In summary, Apple could release expensive or cheap phones and might sell many or not that many, and they might be released immediately or after awhile. Brilliant analysis!
  • Reply 8 of 33
    How about:



    2.8 inch screen 8Gig basic phone no GPS 2.5G No Web no apps



    3.2 inch screen 16Gig revamp of the current 2.5G version (slimmer)



    4 inch screen 16&32G 3G GPS a bit chunkier screen is longer not much wider...
  • Reply 9 of 33
    icfireballicfireball Posts: 2,594member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RogerMostad View Post


    How about:



    2.8 inch screen 8Gig basic phone no GPS 2.5G No Web no apps



    3.2 inch screen 16Gig revamp of the current 2.5G version (slimmer)



    4 inch screen 16&32G 3G GPS a bit chunkier screen is longer not much wider...



    No web? That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. What the hell is the point of a mobil platform with out the internet?



    4 inch screen would probably be too big for comfort.
  • Reply 10 of 33
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,752member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by icfireball View Post


    No web? That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. What the hell is the point of a mobil platform with out the internet?



    4 inch screen would probably be too big for comfort.



    Well, some people don't give a hoot about "mobil platform," they don't see the need for the internet in their pocket. I know people who would like to be able to combine their phone with their iPod. And they want to be able to do it cheep. Being able to double as a picture holder and video viewer would make it more apealing. Visual voicemail would be an added bonus. And games wouldn't hurt. All this could be done without a direct internet connection, and it might be just what satisfies a segment of the market.

    Incidentally, it would also be good for the up-sell. People who would never consider a $200+ phone might come in for a $179 base model and get hooked on the true "mobile platform" when in the store...
  • Reply 11 of 33
    ktappektappe Posts: 759member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    Well, some people don't give a hoot about "mobil platform," they don't see the need for the internet in their pocket.



    Then why on earth would they get an iPhone?
  • Reply 12 of 33
    eagerdragoneagerdragon Posts: 318member
    could, could could.

    Not going to happen, they are releasing a GSM phone and all the could is not going to make Apple go in a different direction.

    Geee.
  • Reply 13 of 33
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,752member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ktappe View Post


    Then why on earth would they get an iPhone?



    Did you read any of the rest of my post?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    I know people who would like to be able to combine their phone with their iPod. And they want to be able to do it cheep. Being able to double as a picture holder and video viewer would make it more apealing. Visual voicemail would be an added bonus. And games wouldn't hurt. All this could be done without a direct internet connection, and it might be just what satisfies a segment of the market.



    I'm not saying it is what I want or what you would want, but I believe that there are many people would be happy with this (if it was sufficiently cheep).
  • Reply 14 of 33
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,946member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    Now Spam, what did I tell you? You remember when I said 27M? I wasn't actually joking!



    Maybe he did a search, found your numbers and ran with it.
  • Reply 15 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,569member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RogerMostad View Post


    How about:



    2.8 inch screen 8Gig basic phone no GPS 2.5G No Web no apps



    No Apps? You have taken this too far!!! A phone app would be handy no?
  • Reply 16 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,569member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    Maybe he did a search, found your numbers and ran with it.



    Unlikely cause the search here is too much work
  • Reply 17 of 33
    winterspanwinterspan Posts: 605member
    It's a *MUCH* better idea for Apple to let carriers subsidize the damn thing. They should launch the lowest iPhone 3G for $399 but have the carrier subsidize $200 off with a 2-year contract, so final price would be $199. Then in 3-5 months down the road, they can lower the price and get it down to $99. That would make the iphone go like crazy! Why make a smaller model when you can have the carriers pay for difference?
  • Reply 18 of 33
    dunksdunks Posts: 1,240member
    Is anyone really surprised by this?



    No doubt some Apps will be offered free and some will be offered at a cost. The App store gives every application an equal footing to be marketed to a consumer of the device which means consumers will choose one app over another mainly based on functionality and price. I'm sure the relevant market forces will sort the rest out.



    I wonder if app upgrades will be handled as a new purchase or if they can be downloaded at a reduced rate by owners of the existing app.



    I hope we see some super creative applications on the iPhone. It's going great to have a company like Apple responsible for quality control. It will certainly take the angst out of installing applications onto a device as intimately coupled personal details as the iPhone. You only have to look at Facebook's application retard rodeo to see what extent companies will go to farm your personal information.
  • Reply 19 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RogerMostad View Post


    How about:



    2.8 inch screen 8Gig basic phone no GPS 2.5G No Web no apps



    and everyone will complain about how underpowered/crap it is



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RogerMostad View Post


    3.2 inch screen 16Gig revamp of the current 2.5G version (slimmer)



    and everyone will complain about how it isnt REALLY an improvement (smaller screen and "still only 16GB")



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RogerMostad View Post


    4 inch screen 16&32G 3G GPS a bit chunkier screen is longer not much wider...



    and everyone will complain how EXPENSIVE it is.





    get ready for the wave of moaning unimpressed whingers, steve will show a new iPhone, and they will come
  • Reply 20 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    Maybe he did a search, found your numbers and ran with it.



    you REALLY think an analyst would do something, SO obvious??????????



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