When Will Supply Meet Demand?

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Just curious as we don't see many predictions. I have been unable to buy a 3G since launch. When do you think there will be the following conditions? (U.S. only).



1. Stock to meet AT&T backorders/pre-orders

2. Stock to meet Apple store demand, if only barely (meaning if I get there when it opens, I can buy one).

3. Consistent stock with no shortages (multiple units of each model always in stock).





My thoughts are a good 30 days for #1 and #2. I'd guess closer to 60-90 days for #3.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 18
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Apple's Delivery Man ran into some complications in escorting the next few dropshipments of teh iPhone 3G... Please hold.

    (It's them darn Axis-of-countries-with-no-iPhone3G up to no good again!!!)



  • Reply 2 of 18
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    Just curious as we don't see many predictions. I have been unable to buy a 3G since launch. When do you think there will be the following conditions? (U.S. only).



    1. Stock to meet AT&T backorders/pre-orders

    2. Stock to meet Apple store demand, if only barely (meaning if I get there when it opens, I can buy one).

    3. Consistent stock with no shortages (multiple units of each model always in stock).





    My thoughts are a good 30 days for #1 and #2. I'd guess closer to 60-90 days for #3.



    Probably when people actually demand it? Just sayin'
  • Reply 3 of 18
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,421member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justflybob View Post


    Probably when people actually demand it? Just sayin'



    I don't know if that was supposed to be funny, or not.



    As I posted in the other thread, I went to the Apple Store King of Prussia, PA today as the website said they had all three models in stock. There were 100 people in line 75 minutes before the store opened. I have never seen such craziness in my lifetime. Then again, no other Philly area store has them, so that's a lot of it.



    Guess I'm waiting.
  • Reply 4 of 18
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    I don't know if that was supposed to be funny, or not.



    As I posted in the other thread, I went to the Apple Store King of Prussia, PA today as the website said they had all three models in stock. There were 100 people in line 75 minutes before the store opened. I have never seen such craziness in my lifetime. Then again, no other Philly area store has them, so that's a lot of it.



    Guess I'm waiting.



    What I am saying should be obvious. Supply will increase directly in proportion to orders in place, ie Demand.



    Now we could have pages of discussion regarding what Apple's plans are, but the bottom line is that if Apple is content to limit supply in order to feign Demand, then you may be in for a really long wait.



    On the other hand, this may have been a feint on Apple's part to distribute what was already in the channel prior to implementing software or hardware updates or fixes.



    Either way, only time will tell. What I did not mean to imply is the attitude of "I gots one and youse don't", as that, my friend, is really tacky.
  • Reply 5 of 18
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    I don't know if that was supposed to be funny, or not.



    As I posted in the other thread, I went to the Apple Store King of Prussia, PA today as the website said they had all three models in stock. There were 100 people in line 75 minutes before the store opened. I have never seen such craziness in my lifetime. Then again, no other Philly area store has them, so that's a lot of it.



    Guess I'm waiting.





    I can't believe people are still standing in lines.
  • Reply 6 of 18
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,421member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ThinkingDifferent View Post


    I can't believe people are still standing in lines.



    I'm not! I'm just going to wait it out.
  • Reply 7 of 18
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,421member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justflybob View Post


    What I am saying should be obvious. Supply will increase directly in proportion to orders in place, ie Demand.



    Uh...no. Supply meeting demand would mean people can buy a phone without waiting 21 days. It means Apple would be replenishing stock at a rate near that of what they are selling. It has nothing to do with how many orders they've gotten. They are currently unable to meet market demand. Hello?



    Quote:



    Now we could have pages of discussion regarding what Apple's plans are, but the bottom line is that if Apple is content to limit supply in order to feign Demand, then you may be in for a really long wait.



    Apple deliberately limiting supply? That's totally unsupported. They simply underestimated the response to the product. It's not as simple as you make it out to be...they can't just order up another 1,000,000 iphones for overnight delivery. If they only had 50,000 on hand, then you might have a point. But when a company sells 1m units in three days, it's likely not deliberate constraint.



    Quote:



    On the other hand, this may have been a feint on Apple's part to distribute what was already in the channel prior to implementing software or hardware updates or fixes.



    Distributing software is easy. It doesn't require clearing the channel. As for hardware, you mean to suggest that they made 1,000,000 defective phones and wanted to clear them out before making more? That's pure silliness too.



    Quote:



    Either way, only time will tell. What I did not mean to imply is the attitude of "I gots one and youse don't", as that, my friend, is really tacky.



    Uh...OK.
  • Reply 8 of 18
    tulkastulkas Posts: 3,756member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    Uh...no. Supply meeting demand would mean people can buy a phone without waiting 21 days. It means Apple would be replenishing stock at a rate near that of what they are selling. It has nothing to do with how many orders they've gotten. They are currently unable to meet market demand. Hello?



    Apple deliberately limiting supply? That's totally unsupported. They simply underestimated the response to the product. It's not as simple as you make it out to be...they can't just order up another 1,000,000 iphones for overnight delivery. If they only had 50,000 on hand, then you might have a point. But when a company sells 1m units in three days, it's likely not deliberate constraint.



    Distributing software is easy. It doesn't require clearing the channel. As for hardware, you mean to suggest that they made 1,000,000 defective phones and wanted to clear them out before making more? That's pure silliness too.



    Uh...OK.



    I'd agreed that I don't believe that Apple is faking the shortage to increase the perception of demand. They may have underestimated the demand or they may have anticipated it and could not meet it. I am sure they have factories all over China going 24/7 pushing them out, but trying to get them all shipped to 21 countries at the same time must be challenging.



    I have seen references on other forums that in Canada Rogers/Fido was expecting stock replenishments this week (past) and other comments that their next full delivery was expected Aug 1. Since comments came from staff and customers that had spoken to reps, it is up in the air as to which it actually is. Are they getting continually replenished or are they out till Aug 1 or some other date.
  • Reply 9 of 18
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    Uh...no. Supply meeting demand would mean people can buy a phone without waiting 21 days. It means Apple would be replenishing stock at a rate near that of what they are selling. It has nothing to do with how many orders they've gotten. They are currently unable to meet market demand. Hello?







    Apple deliberately limiting supply? That's totally unsupported. They simply underestimated the response to the product. It's not as simple as you make it out to be...they can't just order up another 1,000,000 iphones for overnight delivery. If they only had 50,000 on hand, then you might have a point. But when a company sells 1m units in three days, it's likely not deliberate constraint.







    Distributing software is easy. It doesn't require clearing the channel. As for hardware, you mean to suggest that they made 1,000,000 defective phones and wanted to clear them out before making more? That's pure silliness too.







    Uh...OK.



    Oh, OK. I clearly understand now.



    But let me ask you this...



    Which one of us was an Apple Developer for many years and saw this type of manipulation and more when it came to "supply and demand." You are sounding more and more like the Stanford MBA's that crowd Apple's Cupertino halls. Not a lick of real world experience - just a lot of paper chasing. I spent far too many meetings with those idiots not to believe that this shortage is caused by 1) You get more press when people wait in long lines 2) Someone really screwed the pooch on one or more of the critical parts needed to build the phones 3) They didn't know about the defects until after they shipped. 4) All of the above (provided the person in charge is a Stanford MBA).



    Apple, like every other manufacturer, has had a few times where faulty gear was shipped anyway. Remember the IIFX? The Mac Cube? The original iPod? Several display models?



    They have had plenty of time for the ramp up and to work out the bugs. They also had every possible reason to believe that demand was incredibly high. So please tell me why you can't buy an iPhone today?



    BTW, mine works just fine.
  • Reply 10 of 18
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,421member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justflybob View Post


    Oh, OK. I clearly understand now.



    But let me ask you this...



    Which one of us was an Apple Developer for many years and saw this type of manipulation and more when it came to "supply and demand."



    First, being an Apple Developer? doesn't mean you have knowledge of Apple's supply chain. But assuming for some reason you did, what specifically do you mean?



    Quote:

    You are sounding more and more like the Stanford MBA's that crowd Apple's Cupertino halls. Not a lick of real world experience - just a lot of paper chasing. I spent far too many meetings with those idiots not to believe that this shortage is caused by 1) You get more press when people wait in long lines 2) Someone really screwed the pooch on one or more of the critical parts needed to build the phones 3) They didn't know about the defects until after they shipped. 4) All of the above (provided the person in charge is a Stanford MBA).



    I really don't think you have a clue as to what you're talking about. Stanford MBAs? That is hardly Apple's culture. As for your causes, they are purely unsupported. Apple shipped one million phones in three days. They simply need time to catch up, as would any manufacturer. Can you think of another product that has sold like that? The number is staggering.



    Quote:



    Apple, like every other manufacturer, has had a few times where faulty gear was shipped anyway. Remember the IIFX? The Mac Cube? The original iPod? Several display models?



    So what? That has nothing to do with this situation. You're just throwing shit at a wall and hoping it sticks. You have no evidence. None.



    Quote:



    They have had plenty of time for the ramp up and to work out the bugs.



    That's highly subjective. They ramped up significantly, but getting more than a million out? Not likely.



    Quote:

    They also had every possible reason to believe that demand was incredibly high. So please tell me why you can't buy an iPhone today?



    BTW, mine works just fine.



    High, perhaps. But what about "insane?" They sold five times as many in three days as with the 1.0 model. That's more than high.
  • Reply 11 of 18
    not fsjnot fsj Posts: 12member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    First, being an Apple Developer? doesn't mean you have knowledge of Apple's supply chain. But assuming for some reason you did, what specifically do you mean?







    I really don't think you have a clue as to what you're talking about. Stanford MBAs? That is hardly Apple's culture. As for your causes, they are purely unsupported. Apple shipped one million phones in three days. They simply need time to catch up, as would any manufacturer. Can you think of another product that has sold like that? The number is staggering.







    So what? That has nothing to do with this situation. You're just throwing shit at a wall and hoping it sticks. You have no evidence. None.







    That's highly subjective. They ramped up significantly, but getting more than a million out? Not likely











    High, perhaps. But what about "insane?" They sold five times as many in three days as with the 1.0 model. That's more than high.







    Our partners are asking their employees to proceed with all due speed without compromising quality. They are for the most part young women and deserve to be treated with dignity. We respect their abilities and recognize the need for a quality life. If that means some customers will have to wait a little extra time so be it. The short delay will be more than worth it.
  • Reply 12 of 18
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Not FSJ View Post


    Our partners are asking their employees to proceed with all due speed without compromising quality. They are for the most part young women and deserve to be treated with dignity. We respect their abilities and recognize the need for a quality life. If that means some customers will have to wait a little extra time so be it. The short delay will be more than worth it.



    Agreed, but my comments regarding my own experiences with the Apple Corporate Culture remain. The "Stanford MBA" slam was toward the culture that existed during my time, where "street sense" or real world knowledge" was ignored. For example, going into a meeting with channel members (those with clout that would determine our first build to order numbers) the question would always be asked "Well, how many of these things do you expect to sell in the (insert time period here)". The answer was always "Well gosh, it IS an Apple product" or words to that effect. It was ridiculous! And it was probably the primary reason I choose to leave that life.



    As for the supple chain. I'm sorry, but I just don't get the issue there. I spent many a year in the bowels of asian factories while ramping up and placing orders. I will say it again and again. At the low build cost of this product, they should have seen this coming. And of course I'm speculating on why there are shortages and delays, but then so are you. After all, I'm neither RSJ or FSJ for that matter. But that doesn't mean the design and product teams get a free pass just because they are with Apple.



    BTW: Mine works just fine still.
  • Reply 13 of 18
    joedrcjoedrc Posts: 86member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justflybob View Post




    Either way, only time will tell. What I did not mean to imply is the attitude of "I gots one and youse don't", as that, my friend, is really tacky.



    Your just jealous
  • Reply 14 of 18
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JoeDRC View Post


    Your just jealous



    WTF?



    Dude, I own a new iPhone 3G 16GB Black.



    And like everyone else, I love how fast it is on my Wifi at home or my office.



    Also like everyone else, I have experienced horrific 3G connectivity anywhere else (ironically, even inside the local Apple Store).



    So, what exactly am I jealous of? Brad Pitt's love life?
  • Reply 15 of 18
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,949member
    What I did last Saturday afternoon was place an order at an AT&T store while I was out on errands. They said 5-7 business days and it came in Friday evening. That way, you don't have to do any hunting, line camping or stand around for hours for a chance to get one.
  • Reply 16 of 18
    iphone91iphone91 Posts: 98member
    I have no idea when the shortage will pass, but I hope its soon. I took the time to analyze the iPhone Availability list for all stores in the U.S. Of the 187 stores in the U.S., 20 of them have at least one model of the iPhone available, but only 1 has all three available for tomorrow, July 20th. This is amazing, because it shows just how many iPhones Apple has sold.

    Maybe this means the shortage will last longer than we think, but I don't really know.



    Steve
  • Reply 17 of 18
    sammicksammick Posts: 416member
    I just did the same yesterday-Put my order in at the ATT store--I was told 7 to 10 days---



    We'll see---I don't want to stand in line
  • Reply 18 of 18
    gordygordy Posts: 1,004member
    When you have a hot product, supply will never meet demand. That's the game.
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