Apple seen launching new iPod, iTV and iPhone at Macworld
New Apple product announcements at next week's Macworld Expo in San Francisco could include iTV, a new iPod, and the iPhone, according to a Macworld Rumor Roundup issued by research and investment firm PiperJaffray on Thursday.
"Despite all of the talk regarding new product announcements, or lack thereof, at Macworld, we continue to believe that the announcement of an iPhone would be positive for Apple shares and no sign of this product would be a negative," analyst Gene Munster told clients in the report.
The analyst went on to say that it's his belief that Apple has not missed the boat in the music-enabled handset market. "Apple waited several years to enter the MP3 market, we believe the company is well-positioned to enter the phone market now that early music-enabled handsets have tested the waters," he explained. "Apple will differentiate itself by offering iTunes integration on Macs and PCs, and by leveraging its expertise in software engineering for media playing devices."
Munster also offered his take on several Apple product rumors, including a ranking of certainty and some expected release dates. His analysis on each of the rumors is being published in full for reader appreciation:
Almost Certain (in the next 2-6 months):
1. iPhone entering production phase of 12m units (Certainty rank: 9 out of 10). In Nov-06 two separate reports came from Asian news sources indicating that Taiwanese manufacturer Hon Hai's subsidiary Foxconn had received a 12m unit contract for the iPhone. According to Commercial Time the manufacturer signed the contract with Apple to produce 12m units for a scheduled release in 1H07. Additionally, China Times reported that the manufacturer will produce between 500,000-600,000 units per month starting in early CY07.
2. iTV ($299) release at Macworld with some improvements from September debut (10 out of 10). At a Sep-06 event, Apple introduced the iTV, a wireless media streaming device to view iTunes content on a TV. At the show, the device was simply streaming media (but did not store it locally); we believe Apple could release an improved model with an internal hard disk drive. Downloadable movies average about 1.5GB each on iTunes and one way that Apple can ease capacity restrictions is to add hard drive space to the iTV. We believe Apple will eventually improve on the iTV shown in September, but the improvements may not come until after the initial release.
Likely (in the next 6-12 months):
3. iPhone with candy-bar form factor (9 out of 10). Given the fact that the iPhone will be Apple's first dip into the mobile handset pool, it is likely that the phone will come in a candy-bar form factor. Clamshell devices are often more prone to bugs and glitches, so when Apple releases its first phone, it will probably be a candy-bar style with limited moving parts and simpler software engineering.
4. Widescreen iPod with touch-sensitivity and wireless features (7 out of 10). According to several Apple patents, along with word from component suppliers, Apple is working on a 6th generation widescreen iPod that could feature touch-screen capability. We believe that the new iPod will be a significant improvement to the 5th generation iPod, as the device becomes more video-centric. As such, the iPod line would feature small music-centric and "wearable" players as well as a larger music player with more video-centric features. Eventually, Apple will also likely add wireless syncing technology to the player, but battery drain remains a critical concern before such a feature is added.
5. Second smartphone iPhone model with integrated keyboard (7 out of 10). Indications from component suppliers point to the possibility of a second iPhone model featuring an integrated keyboard. We believe the initial iPhone release will include a single model, but Apple will likely expand the iPhone line to include a smartphone device for instant messaging and emailing at some point.
6. iSight camera, 4GB or 8GB storage on the iPhone (7 out of 10). Recent rumors point to an initial release of two iPhone models: a 4GB version for $249 and an 8GB model for $449. Both models are rumored to feature two separate batteries in the handset, one for the phone and one for the music player. Also, Apple has successfully branded the iSight cameras on the MacBook and MacBook Pro portables and it is likely that they will eventually extend the brand to the iPhone line. With music, photos, and video from iTunes, the iPhone will be a media-rich device and an iSight camera would add to the eco-system of media/communications on the device.
7. Multiple carriers as iPhone providers (vs. Cingular only or MVNO (6 out of 10). We believe Apple will target as broad an audience as possible with the iPhone. Accordingly, the company will likely sell the handset through most or all of the top wireless service providers (Verizon, Sprint, Cingular and T-Mobile in the U.S.). That said it is possible that Cingular could obtain exclusive vending rights for a limited time. Early CY07 could be the ideal time for the release of the iPhone through Cingular. January and February 2007 will include the Macworld keynote on January 9, CES from January 8-11, and key marketing opportunities during the Cingular-sponsored American Idol Premier on January 16 &17 and the Super Bowl on February 4. This may be the "perfect storm" for the release of the iPhone, especially as a Cingular exclusive. An additional option would be for Apple to use a MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) system. We have not seen any hard evidence that indicates whether Apple will choose to go with an exclusive provider, several providers, or the route of an MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator).
A Stretch (possibly in the next 12-18 months):
8. Ultra-portable 12" MacBook Pro (4 out of 10). With the Intel transition successfully completed, Apple is ready to innovate the product line with the possible addition of an ultra-portable addition to the MacBook family. With the release of the 15" and 17" MacBook Pros, Apple decided not to carry the 12" PowerBook model into the MacBook Pro lineup. If a 12" MacBook Pro is released, we believe the product will address the need for extreme portability; not simply a smaller MacBook Pro. Another possibility is that of a touch-screen tablet Mac. Rather than marketing the tablet computer to business users (like tablet PCs), we believe that a tablet Mac would be targeted at home users desiring to wirelessly control media content. Again, this rumor is 'a stretch' because we have not seen any hard evidence, other than several patent applications, that point to the release of a tablet Mac.
9. Radio-transparent material used for iPhone casing (3 out of 10). Since current iPod casings would serve as poor mobile phone casings, Apple is looking into new casing materials. Specifically, the material must enable radio-waves to penetrate the device's exterior. In a Nov-06 patent application Apple describes a computing device with radio-transparent material like zirconia used as the casing. We see this patent application as evidence that the iPhone is coming, but we hesitate to draw conclusions on the specifics of the device based on such patents.
10. iPhone to feature 'iChat Mobile' video and instant messaging (2 out of 10). Again, we believe that the iPhone will be a media-centric communications device and messaging features would work nicely with such an ecosystem. While it is unlikely that the first iPhone will feature video conferencing, this is certainly a feature the company could add to future models, including a possible smartphone model.
11. OSX 10.5 Leopard release at Macworld (3 out of 10). While Microsoft has delayed the consumer launch of Windows Vista to January 30, 2007, Apple announced plans to release OSX 10.5, Leopard, in "spring 2007." These releases are not necessarily a race to the finish line, but we believe that Apple will work hard to ship Leopard close to the release of Vista.
"Despite all of the talk regarding new product announcements, or lack thereof, at Macworld, we continue to believe that the announcement of an iPhone would be positive for Apple shares and no sign of this product would be a negative," analyst Gene Munster told clients in the report.
The analyst went on to say that it's his belief that Apple has not missed the boat in the music-enabled handset market. "Apple waited several years to enter the MP3 market, we believe the company is well-positioned to enter the phone market now that early music-enabled handsets have tested the waters," he explained. "Apple will differentiate itself by offering iTunes integration on Macs and PCs, and by leveraging its expertise in software engineering for media playing devices."
Munster also offered his take on several Apple product rumors, including a ranking of certainty and some expected release dates. His analysis on each of the rumors is being published in full for reader appreciation:
Almost Certain (in the next 2-6 months):
1. iPhone entering production phase of 12m units (Certainty rank: 9 out of 10). In Nov-06 two separate reports came from Asian news sources indicating that Taiwanese manufacturer Hon Hai's subsidiary Foxconn had received a 12m unit contract for the iPhone. According to Commercial Time the manufacturer signed the contract with Apple to produce 12m units for a scheduled release in 1H07. Additionally, China Times reported that the manufacturer will produce between 500,000-600,000 units per month starting in early CY07.
2. iTV ($299) release at Macworld with some improvements from September debut (10 out of 10). At a Sep-06 event, Apple introduced the iTV, a wireless media streaming device to view iTunes content on a TV. At the show, the device was simply streaming media (but did not store it locally); we believe Apple could release an improved model with an internal hard disk drive. Downloadable movies average about 1.5GB each on iTunes and one way that Apple can ease capacity restrictions is to add hard drive space to the iTV. We believe Apple will eventually improve on the iTV shown in September, but the improvements may not come until after the initial release.
Likely (in the next 6-12 months):
3. iPhone with candy-bar form factor (9 out of 10). Given the fact that the iPhone will be Apple's first dip into the mobile handset pool, it is likely that the phone will come in a candy-bar form factor. Clamshell devices are often more prone to bugs and glitches, so when Apple releases its first phone, it will probably be a candy-bar style with limited moving parts and simpler software engineering.
4. Widescreen iPod with touch-sensitivity and wireless features (7 out of 10). According to several Apple patents, along with word from component suppliers, Apple is working on a 6th generation widescreen iPod that could feature touch-screen capability. We believe that the new iPod will be a significant improvement to the 5th generation iPod, as the device becomes more video-centric. As such, the iPod line would feature small music-centric and "wearable" players as well as a larger music player with more video-centric features. Eventually, Apple will also likely add wireless syncing technology to the player, but battery drain remains a critical concern before such a feature is added.
5. Second smartphone iPhone model with integrated keyboard (7 out of 10). Indications from component suppliers point to the possibility of a second iPhone model featuring an integrated keyboard. We believe the initial iPhone release will include a single model, but Apple will likely expand the iPhone line to include a smartphone device for instant messaging and emailing at some point.
6. iSight camera, 4GB or 8GB storage on the iPhone (7 out of 10). Recent rumors point to an initial release of two iPhone models: a 4GB version for $249 and an 8GB model for $449. Both models are rumored to feature two separate batteries in the handset, one for the phone and one for the music player. Also, Apple has successfully branded the iSight cameras on the MacBook and MacBook Pro portables and it is likely that they will eventually extend the brand to the iPhone line. With music, photos, and video from iTunes, the iPhone will be a media-rich device and an iSight camera would add to the eco-system of media/communications on the device.
7. Multiple carriers as iPhone providers (vs. Cingular only or MVNO (6 out of 10). We believe Apple will target as broad an audience as possible with the iPhone. Accordingly, the company will likely sell the handset through most or all of the top wireless service providers (Verizon, Sprint, Cingular and T-Mobile in the U.S.). That said it is possible that Cingular could obtain exclusive vending rights for a limited time. Early CY07 could be the ideal time for the release of the iPhone through Cingular. January and February 2007 will include the Macworld keynote on January 9, CES from January 8-11, and key marketing opportunities during the Cingular-sponsored American Idol Premier on January 16 &17 and the Super Bowl on February 4. This may be the "perfect storm" for the release of the iPhone, especially as a Cingular exclusive. An additional option would be for Apple to use a MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) system. We have not seen any hard evidence that indicates whether Apple will choose to go with an exclusive provider, several providers, or the route of an MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator).
A Stretch (possibly in the next 12-18 months):
8. Ultra-portable 12" MacBook Pro (4 out of 10). With the Intel transition successfully completed, Apple is ready to innovate the product line with the possible addition of an ultra-portable addition to the MacBook family. With the release of the 15" and 17" MacBook Pros, Apple decided not to carry the 12" PowerBook model into the MacBook Pro lineup. If a 12" MacBook Pro is released, we believe the product will address the need for extreme portability; not simply a smaller MacBook Pro. Another possibility is that of a touch-screen tablet Mac. Rather than marketing the tablet computer to business users (like tablet PCs), we believe that a tablet Mac would be targeted at home users desiring to wirelessly control media content. Again, this rumor is 'a stretch' because we have not seen any hard evidence, other than several patent applications, that point to the release of a tablet Mac.
9. Radio-transparent material used for iPhone casing (3 out of 10). Since current iPod casings would serve as poor mobile phone casings, Apple is looking into new casing materials. Specifically, the material must enable radio-waves to penetrate the device's exterior. In a Nov-06 patent application Apple describes a computing device with radio-transparent material like zirconia used as the casing. We see this patent application as evidence that the iPhone is coming, but we hesitate to draw conclusions on the specifics of the device based on such patents.
10. iPhone to feature 'iChat Mobile' video and instant messaging (2 out of 10). Again, we believe that the iPhone will be a media-centric communications device and messaging features would work nicely with such an ecosystem. While it is unlikely that the first iPhone will feature video conferencing, this is certainly a feature the company could add to future models, including a possible smartphone model.
11. OSX 10.5 Leopard release at Macworld (3 out of 10). While Microsoft has delayed the consumer launch of Windows Vista to January 30, 2007, Apple announced plans to release OSX 10.5, Leopard, in "spring 2007." These releases are not necessarily a race to the finish line, but we believe that Apple will work hard to ship Leopard close to the release of Vista.
Comments
New Apple product announcements at next week's Macworld Expo in San Francisco could include iTV, a new iPod, and the iPhone...
no sign of [the iPhone] would be a negative,
Negative? Apple never mentioned anything about a phone. Now, if the iTV wasn't mentioned at all then yes, I could see that as being a negative.
1- iWork '07, now free on all Mac pros! Introducing "Options", an easy to use tool that has been thoroughly tested (26,500 person-hours) by forensic accountants.
2- iLife '07: introducing Cover Flow into iPhoto (this is gonna make me really happy
3- a rebranded .mac with a free entry level membership (250MB), making it easier to share your iLife goodies with a community of like minded buddies.
4- a new 20", 24" and 30" Cinema Display with built in speakers!
5- a rebranded iTv (as announced)
6- one more thing: not a phone
Biggest dissapointment (relief?): no phone
Biggest rumour (the day after): phone due in 2 months, ships have been spotted in China!
Apple is in no hurry. They will take their sweet time to get it right. I think the ship date will be sometime in March, maybe April.
Negative? Apple never mentioned anything about a phone. Now, if the iTV wasn't mentioned at all then yes, I could see that as being a negative.[/QUOTE]
It would be a negative because of the expectation that they will have one.
The stock has gone up when it was said they they would be coming out with one, and the stock dropped just because Cisco intro'd a VOIP phone named "iPhone".
Last year this time, the expectations whas that they would have bew iPods, when it was clear that they did not, the stock dropped.
It's all expectations. It has little to do with what Apple will actually do, just what people expect them to do.
It's Apple's own fault for not speaking on these matters.
What about:
4- a new 20", 24" and 30" Cinema Display with built in speakers!
No no! Never built-in speakers.
What about:
1- iWork '07, now free on all Mac pros! Introducing "Options", an easy to use tool that has been thoroughly tested (26,500 person-hours) by forensic accountants.
Select mega-encryption or secure file delete from the pull-down menu
The iTV will officially be called the "iPod TV" or maybe "iTunes TV". The "iTV" will not have a hard drive larger than a few GB, it's just plain cost prohibitive. See a recent thread on the iTV for more detailed predictions from me on this, but it doesn't need a big hard drive when it can pull all your content on-demand directly from the iTunes Store.
I predict we will get some nice demos of the iPhone, iTV and some more insight into Leopard. Only one of the devices will be available immediately and the other at the beginning of February.
No no! Never built-in speakers.
Hahaha, I agree!
Maybe Apple will team up with Harmon Kardon again to produce some elegant speakers... you remember the crystal globes that came with the G4 iMacs? Those were some nice little pieces of work. Needed more bass though... I blew mine out within a month.
-Clive
If I was a betting man I'd be putting down a lot of ? on there being a new iSight announced (so it can link to your iTV)
Well, if the iTV sticks with only having a USB port and the iSight continues to be FireWire, I'd say that is not a good bet. It's a good idea though.
There's absolutely no need and would complicate the equation indefinitely, especially concerning digital rights.
Let's assume Munster is right, though, that there IS a HDD in the TelePort and that it can act as a stand-alone media access point. The question remains, how would you be able to get media onto it? Either 1) it comes with some sort of operating system which allowed you to connect it to the iTS for content, or 2) it could be detected by a Mac or PC as a computer/HD over the network in order to drag-n-drop media.
Option 1, I think, is too far-fetched and risky. There would be substantial reliability issues using HDs that small to run an OS (unless the gossip about OS X LT is true, but we have no evidence of that yet). We've all heard many nightmare-ish stories about people trying to bring their home computer to work, booting via iPod, and within a couple months, the iPod's HDD dies. Not good.
Option 2, if this is the case, you already have a full-sized (i.e. reliable) HDD in your computer, which is connected to the internet, (i.e. iTS) for content. Why would you even need a HD in the TelePort box? Basically, Apple would be spending money on MicroDrives which don't have a reliable life-span and take up valuable space inside the box and for what? So that you can have an identical copy of a 1GB movie on both your Mac and your iTV box? As long as streaming works, there's no need. As long as streaming works, there's no need. As long as streaming works, there's no need!
PLUS, with iTunes DRM, you are limited to the number of copies you can make on devices you own. So an HD in the iTV would eat up one of those copies for any of the media you would choose to load onto it.
I do think, however, it might be likely to allow it to connect to .Mac, and *maybe* YouTube, although streaming from the net is slower than from within an internal network... and on top of that, I don't know many people who store full-length, full-quality movies in their .Mac storage. In fact, I don't know any.
So, that's why I think there will be no HDD in the TelePort.
-Clive
Well, if the iTV sticks with only having a USB port and the iSight continues to be FireWire, I'd say that is not a good bet. It's a good idea though.
Sadly, Apple is slowly but surely abandoning FireWire. Too few outside manufacturers use it. You're much more likely to find USB ports in media equipment than FireWire. TiVo has USB, also, I think.
-Clive
Since I'm having a hard time coming up with a predictable major Mac update, I'd say we should expect a BIG SURPRISE on the Mac front!
Then again, maybe they think the iTV and iPhone are more than enough to emphasize and minor updates to the Mac (with more Leopard preview) is all we'll see.
Why not killing everyone by giving road warriors an 11" mbp and hit the home market real hard with a....
-Clive