Macworld == Lots of Disappointed Geeks
The rumor mill is really on overdrive this year, and I think it's because there's no good leads on what's coming out on Tuesday.
The Apple blogosphere has become bigger than the speed of rumor, so a random guess by some guy on some random board quickly becomes a sure thing after it's hoped from blogger to blogger a few times, and it's resulted in a situation where Apple's stock price is being directly affected by the credibility of the rumors.
It's crazy.
Let's run down a few of the rumors.
The iPhone: I seriously doubt it. The phone market is one huge cockup, with the carriers making unreasonable demands on the manufacturers. Special interfaces, disabled features, carrier branding, etc. The list of concessions is long and preposterous, and I doubt Apple is going to want to play those reindeer games. Sure, they could sell GSM phones, but the GSM service in the US mostly sucks, with T-Mobile and Cingular doing everything they can to not upgrade their network. And unless they're going to offer a subsidy themselves, Apple is going to end up pricing a phone upwards of $400, which is not going to excite many users.
Displays with iSight built in: no way. It sounds like a kludgy solution and doesn't offer any real benefit. Unless they're going to add iSight to all their displays and use it as a justification to charge more than Dell and Gateway for something that's becoming a commodity, I just don't see it happening. What benefit will this give over a separate webcam? Fewer positioning options?
MacBookMini: I would love to see Apple come out with the equivalent of the ultralight Wintel machines, but I don't think Jobs is ever going to let a Mac get released that doesn't have an optical drive. I think that's a huge mistake, but Steve is persnickety about things like this.
new iMac: No. Just no. It's already a laptop in a desktop enclosure, and unless components get radically smaller, or they decide to sell a 30" version, it's just not going to change much over the next few years.
Early Leopard Release: No. The developer versions we've been seeing out in the wild are not ready for primetime. It's going to be near the end of Q2 before we see this hit stores.
30th Anniversary Mac: No. If they were going to release one, they would have done it last year. Steve doesn't seem to like having a gazillion different products on the market, and I just don't see them releasing a special edition computer that is obviously going away after a year.
True Video iPod: No. Most people aren't going to want to take the tradeoffs inherent in a Video iPod, especially if the only benefit is that they get to watch videos on a larger screen. Unless you take public transportation, you probably don't have time to watch movies on your iPod on a regular basis. Having a huge, delicate screen on a device device that scratches every time you breath on it, and that would be priced at $599? That isn't going to appeal to anyone.
No, I think that what's probably going to happen is that the iTV device is going to be talked about, and probably released, there will be an iLife update, and lots of talk about Leopard, but that's it. We'll get a lot of warm, fuzzy, talk to keep up the RDF, and Steve will talk about how this is going to be a great year, with great products, and he's really excited, and... see you at WWDC.
There's going to be lots of pissed-off nerds on Tuesday. Just you wait.
-B
The Apple blogosphere has become bigger than the speed of rumor, so a random guess by some guy on some random board quickly becomes a sure thing after it's hoped from blogger to blogger a few times, and it's resulted in a situation where Apple's stock price is being directly affected by the credibility of the rumors.
It's crazy.
Let's run down a few of the rumors.
The iPhone: I seriously doubt it. The phone market is one huge cockup, with the carriers making unreasonable demands on the manufacturers. Special interfaces, disabled features, carrier branding, etc. The list of concessions is long and preposterous, and I doubt Apple is going to want to play those reindeer games. Sure, they could sell GSM phones, but the GSM service in the US mostly sucks, with T-Mobile and Cingular doing everything they can to not upgrade their network. And unless they're going to offer a subsidy themselves, Apple is going to end up pricing a phone upwards of $400, which is not going to excite many users.
Displays with iSight built in: no way. It sounds like a kludgy solution and doesn't offer any real benefit. Unless they're going to add iSight to all their displays and use it as a justification to charge more than Dell and Gateway for something that's becoming a commodity, I just don't see it happening. What benefit will this give over a separate webcam? Fewer positioning options?
MacBookMini: I would love to see Apple come out with the equivalent of the ultralight Wintel machines, but I don't think Jobs is ever going to let a Mac get released that doesn't have an optical drive. I think that's a huge mistake, but Steve is persnickety about things like this.
new iMac: No. Just no. It's already a laptop in a desktop enclosure, and unless components get radically smaller, or they decide to sell a 30" version, it's just not going to change much over the next few years.
Early Leopard Release: No. The developer versions we've been seeing out in the wild are not ready for primetime. It's going to be near the end of Q2 before we see this hit stores.
30th Anniversary Mac: No. If they were going to release one, they would have done it last year. Steve doesn't seem to like having a gazillion different products on the market, and I just don't see them releasing a special edition computer that is obviously going away after a year.
True Video iPod: No. Most people aren't going to want to take the tradeoffs inherent in a Video iPod, especially if the only benefit is that they get to watch videos on a larger screen. Unless you take public transportation, you probably don't have time to watch movies on your iPod on a regular basis. Having a huge, delicate screen on a device device that scratches every time you breath on it, and that would be priced at $599? That isn't going to appeal to anyone.
No, I think that what's probably going to happen is that the iTV device is going to be talked about, and probably released, there will be an iLife update, and lots of talk about Leopard, but that's it. We'll get a lot of warm, fuzzy, talk to keep up the RDF, and Steve will talk about how this is going to be a great year, with great products, and he's really excited, and... see you at WWDC.
There's going to be lots of pissed-off nerds on Tuesday. Just you wait.
-B
Comments
The rumor mill is really on overdrive this year, and I think it's because there's no good leads on what's coming out on Tuesday.
The Apple blogosphere has become bigger than the speed of rumor, so a random guess by some guy on some random board quickly becomes a sure thing after it's hoped from blogger to blogger a few times, and it's resulted in a situation where Apple's stock price is being directly affected by the credibility of the rumors.
It's crazy.
I totally agree. This thing is totally out of control. I can even read full posts or make sensible posts myself.
With regard to your comment on the "MacBookMini", I think that you are off base. We aren't asking for something the size of a Sony TX (11" screen, etc). We are asking for something the size of a Sony SZ, with a 13" screen and weight around 4lbs and still includes all the appropriate drives. It can be done relatively easily, as virtually every other maker has one on the market. Other then that, I tend to agree with your assessment.
I'm in total agreement, but I still don't think Steve is going to release something like this.
The main reason is that it would have to be different enough from the MacBook to not cause confusion in their product line. This points to a device that has a 12" or smaller screen, and weighs between 3 and 4 pounds.
This is a size that is well-represented in the Windows world, but the tradeoffs are severe and the prices tend to be very high for what you get. Also, I don't think that many people are actually going to buy a device like this. The main market for ultraportables is businessmen who travel a lot and hard-core computer nerds. Apple isn't really interested in competing for the business market, since it's a market that doesn't care about the advantages Apple has, and the population of computer nerds, while vocal, is very small.
I would be the first in line to buy a MacBook Mini, but I just don't see Apple coming out with one.
-B
FTW!!! SPQR!!! NATO!!! W.o.O.h.P.!!!
iLife '07
iWork '07
Bit more info re Leopard
Sales info & back slapping
iTV
? updated Mac Mini
There may be one other thing but probably more on the direction of travel?
Wonder if there is to be an iPhone if it will be released at a seperate event?
Would love an updated ipod but again - not sure there will be though
Lots of diasppointments post keynote
^^^ not a likely scenario... considering the website banner for the last week on apple.com and the matching banners at Moscone, something big is going to happen. Your predictions of everything not happening is just as informed at everyone elses uninformed guessing. Whether its a phone, new ipod, itv it doesn't matter... there is something extremely large afoot and not many people know what. Apple has the media and a number of others dangling by a string in anticipation, this doesn't happen with any other tech company on such a frequent basis.
Ever heard of a PSP? 200 bucks, huge screen, runs linux.
Ever heard of Aivx? 200 bucks, small, uses 80GB hd, runs a media browser via remote, plays MPEG-4 out of HD Component jacks at 480i/p 720p and 1080i.
http://www.coolgear.com/productdetai...61,174,175,176
If the iTV is announced alongside with already more than likely Movie sales from the iTMS... there is no way Apple will not have a portable solution for this content. People already watch movies on their iPod and PSP gets some major releases put out on PSP mini discs. The only thing lacking from Apple is the hardware, the customer base and desired usage is already there.
iLife '07
iWork '07
Bit more info re Leopard
Sales info & back slapping
iTV
? updated Mac Mini
I agree almost 100%
iWork 07
iLife 07
Some on leopard (release date may)
Sales info
iTunes movie store announcement (more studios)
iTV demo (ships end of February)
One more thing...
some neat little item we all have no idea of and don't need or want (like the iPod Hi-Fi).
I know better than to be an idiot about rumors. I know what's comng once it's here.
iTunes movie store announcement (more studios)
I hope that this is coming to europe/UK aswell....
SNIP
^^^ not a likely scenario... considering the website banner for the last week on apple.com and the matching banners at Moscone, something big is going to happen. Your predictions of everything not happening is just as informed at everyone elses uninformed guessing. Whether its a phone, new ipod, itv it doesn't matter... there is something extremely large afoot and not many people know what. Apple has the media and a number of others dangling by a string in anticipation, this doesn't happen with any other tech company on such a frequent basis.
SNIP
Sometimes a banner is just a banner.
Apple could be trying to keep spirits high by pointing to product releases later in the year. The anticipation and excitement is entirely generated by the rumor sites and isn't actually supported by any clear evidence.
We haven't seen any credible rumors in quite a while, which could mean that Apple has just gotten much much much better about security, but which could just as easily mean that there's nothing coming out to spark the rumors in the first place.
When was the last time Apple released a totally ground-breaking device? Maybe the iPod, but it wasn't really acclaimed when it came out. The most recent iMac is a sweet machine, but it wasn't a huge leap from the last model; it was really just a result of incremental improvements. I'd say maybe the original Powerbook.
Last year was a big year for Apple. They transitioned their entire line of computers to a new processor architecture, and they did it in the most seamless and painless manner I could imagine. I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear that the MWSF Keynote is going to be a software-only event this year, with only incremental versions getting released.
-B
I know better than to be an idiot about rumors. I know what's comng once it's here.
I agree with you.
I can almost feel it.
Apple will unviel something big.
Im talking something in between rofl the Mac Pro and the iMac.
A Mid-Sized tower of Prosumers.
Dont say that-
you have made me 33% more hyped now !
I dont know what to do with myself...
INSANITY !!
...
...
...
I WANT A xMAC ! 8)
Omg-
you people in the US are getting the keynote sooner than us in London !
I have to wait until about 5-6pm
games could run on a directX enabled sandbox.
ok, that's bs
well unless they DONT update the mini im clearly not a geek then!
now quit with the negitive "this wont happen that wont happen " CRAP
theres only 30 odd hours left to go... let us indulge in the madness!