The click wheel will not leave us any time soon. The iPod nanos should retain the scroll wheel for at least the 2007 holiday season, and if you ask me, the 2008 shopping season as well. The video iPod is the next click wheel to go multi-touch, but I don't know that will be this year either because Apple wants to make their iPhone more desirable for longer.
My guess right now is that the true video iPod will arrive September 2007 as part of the yearly hardware "refresh" of iPod models.
It will have the thickness of the current 80 GB 5.5G iPod, but offer a 16:9 aspect ratio display, touchscreen controls and display resolution about the same as the original Macintosh (around 512 x 342)! 8) It won't be cheap, though--I can guess about US$499 for the 80 GB model and US$599 for the 120 GB model.
The click wheel will not leave us any time soon. The iPod nanos should retain the scroll wheel for at least the 2007 holiday season, and if you ask me, the 2008 shopping season as well. The video iPod is the next click wheel to go multi-touch, but I don't know that will be this year either because Apple wants to make their iPhone more desirable for longer.
I think that's right. The Nano will continue to add capacity and functionality. Base model Nanos will continue to drop in price.
By this time next year I wouldn't be surprised to see 2GB shuffles selling for $49, 4GB Nanos at $99 and 8 and 16GB models available at $149 and $199 respectively. They'll become "the iPod classic" for all intents and purposes, retaining the simplicity of the click wheel and the focus of purpose. It's only a matter of a year or two before flash players move into the realm formally occupied by the smaller HDD models, at which point the old iPod paradigm is fully replicated by the Nano.
Meanwhile, the HDD based models will migrate to the new UI, add all kind of new functionality, and satisfy a somewhat different market than "music player". 100GB drives and up are overkill for the vast majority of people who want "just" an MP3 player, and that kind of capacity is clearly where the HDD models are headed. The new UI is just the thing for all that video and data and photo stuff you'll be carrying on your "Ultra Pod".
That will depend a lot on how much Apple believes that the 6Gen iPod will bleed sales from their iPhone in June. If the 6Gen iPod resembles the iPhone, I don't think that they will risk the loss in sales of a new product line, simply to introduce another iPod.
Just think about it: the iPod is already selling well, and will continue to do so for the next year even if Apple doesn't update it. One look at the iPhone and you know that Apple has a potential winner up their sleeves if they introduce it as an iPod.
But what happens if they introduce an iPod that is like the iPhone, only without the smartphone features? Will everyone and their dog just snap up that device immediately because, well, they don't really need the smart phone. In this case, June rolls around, and the people who had the patience to wait for the iPhone are rewarded, but the sales for that device are lower than they could have been because half of the potential customers decided that they didn't want to wait, or decided that they actually didn't need a smart phone. Then Cingular is pissed off because their margins are lower than expected, and they become less willing to work with Apple to make 2Gen iPhone a real knock-out punch!
If you think Apple is this stupid, well... This is why I say that, unless the 6Gen iPod is nothing like the iPhone, we will not see it until iPhone has had a few months to establish itself. There have been updates to iPods in late September / early October each of the last two years. This seems like a good time to introduce the 6Gen iPod.
I have to agree. Apple tends to protect the high margin product to the determint of the low end. The problem, as stated by Wil, is that the iPod can't afford to stand still with MS and the other cell companies trying to move up. Using the iPhone interface and some of its features coupled with the iPods lower price and higher storage would be a winner. Of course Apple being Apple they might force people to pay for the advancements.
I think that we will see a 100gig iPod with the iPhone interface within two months. Apple would be foolish to wait on this.
I kind of hope that they keep the physical clickwheel on the 30/40 gig models, as it is probably a lot easier to fiddle with the volume in bed in the dark with a physical clickwheel.
The click wheel will not leave us any time soon. The iPod nanos should retain the scroll wheel for at least the 2007 holiday season, and if you ask me, the 2008 shopping season as well. The video iPod is the next click wheel to go multi-touch, but I don't know that will be this year either because Apple wants to make their iPhone more desirable for longer.
I do hope the wheel will stay permanently with all iPods, save for the iTouch of course. I'm reminded of its retro flavour when I twirl my finger on my shirt pocket for Volume.
Also, the click buttons are easily located blind besides, the Bose Soundock's 'Redifussion' look just blends with the click-wheel and oblong screen. You can't go wrong with a wheel design in any era, don't you think?
I do hope the wheel will stay permanently with all iPods, save for the iTouch of course. I'm reminded of its retro flavour when I twirl my finger on my shirt pocket for Volume.
Also, the click buttons are easily located blind besides, the Bose Soundock's 'Redifussion' look just blends with the click-wheel and oblong screen. You can't go wrong with a wheel design in any era, don't you think?
Don't start calling it the iTouch - that was a hoax, and the name sux.
My guess right now is that the true video iPod will arrive September 2007 as part of the yearly hardware "refresh" of iPod models.
It will have the thickness of the current 80 GB 5.5G iPod, but offer a 16:9 aspect ratio display, touchscreen controls and display resolution about the same as the original Macintosh (around 512 x 342)! 8) It won't be cheap, though--I can guess about US$499 for the 80 GB model and US$599 for the 120 GB model.
I think the Video iPod will use the exact same screen as the iPhone but will be a slightly smaller device not having all the cell phone/wireless stuff in it. It will be thicker due to the 60GB and 100GB hard drives though. It should have many of the iPhone features such as photo viewing, coverflow, etc. Don't forget games. That was not mentioned during the keynote but I'm sure the iPhone will have them too. The interface can mimick various game controllers. I'm thinking $399 and $499.
I think that we will see a 100gig iPod with the iPhone interface within two months. Apple would be foolish to wait on this.
I kind of hope that they keep the physical clickwheel on the 30/40 gig models, as it is probably a lot easier to fiddle with the volume in bed in the dark with a physical clickwheel.
Apple must consider this. The iPod video as opposed to the iPhone is about minimal handling. On the move it?s designed to be hung down there with your finger twirling the wheel blind on volume and selection. The wheel is old school I know, but that?s the attraction of the whole iPod range. Therefore, should the next iPod embrace the touch interface, you can say goodbye to old school tactile, besides the thing will look like another phone with Nokia and Motorola waiting in the wings to copy the iPhone interface.
Comments
It will have the thickness of the current 80 GB 5.5G iPod, but offer a 16:9 aspect ratio display, touchscreen controls and display resolution about the same as the original Macintosh (around 512 x 342)! 8) It won't be cheap, though--I can guess about US$499 for the 80 GB model and US$599 for the 120 GB model.
The click wheel will not leave us any time soon. The iPod nanos should retain the scroll wheel for at least the 2007 holiday season, and if you ask me, the 2008 shopping season as well. The video iPod is the next click wheel to go multi-touch, but I don't know that will be this year either because Apple wants to make their iPhone more desirable for longer.
I think that's right. The Nano will continue to add capacity and functionality. Base model Nanos will continue to drop in price.
By this time next year I wouldn't be surprised to see 2GB shuffles selling for $49, 4GB Nanos at $99 and 8 and 16GB models available at $149 and $199 respectively. They'll become "the iPod classic" for all intents and purposes, retaining the simplicity of the click wheel and the focus of purpose. It's only a matter of a year or two before flash players move into the realm formally occupied by the smaller HDD models, at which point the old iPod paradigm is fully replicated by the Nano.
Meanwhile, the HDD based models will migrate to the new UI, add all kind of new functionality, and satisfy a somewhat different market than "music player". 100GB drives and up are overkill for the vast majority of people who want "just" an MP3 player, and that kind of capacity is clearly where the HDD models are headed. The new UI is just the thing for all that video and data and photo stuff you'll be carrying on your "Ultra Pod".
That will depend a lot on how much Apple believes that the 6Gen iPod will bleed sales from their iPhone in June. If the 6Gen iPod resembles the iPhone, I don't think that they will risk the loss in sales of a new product line, simply to introduce another iPod.
Just think about it: the iPod is already selling well, and will continue to do so for the next year even if Apple doesn't update it. One look at the iPhone and you know that Apple has a potential winner up their sleeves if they introduce it as an iPod.
But what happens if they introduce an iPod that is like the iPhone, only without the smartphone features? Will everyone and their dog just snap up that device immediately because, well, they don't really need the smart phone. In this case, June rolls around, and the people who had the patience to wait for the iPhone are rewarded, but the sales for that device are lower than they could have been because half of the potential customers decided that they didn't want to wait, or decided that they actually didn't need a smart phone. Then Cingular is pissed off because their margins are lower than expected, and they become less willing to work with Apple to make 2Gen iPhone a real knock-out punch!
If you think Apple is this stupid, well... This is why I say that, unless the 6Gen iPod is nothing like the iPhone, we will not see it until iPhone has had a few months to establish itself. There have been updates to iPods in late September / early October each of the last two years. This seems like a good time to introduce the 6Gen iPod.
I have to agree. Apple tends to protect the high margin product to the determint of the low end. The problem, as stated by Wil, is that the iPod can't afford to stand still with MS and the other cell companies trying to move up. Using the iPhone interface and some of its features coupled with the iPods lower price and higher storage would be a winner. Of course Apple being Apple they might force people to pay for the advancements.
I kind of hope that they keep the physical clickwheel on the 30/40 gig models, as it is probably a lot easier to fiddle with the volume in bed in the dark with a physical clickwheel.
The click wheel will not leave us any time soon. The iPod nanos should retain the scroll wheel for at least the 2007 holiday season, and if you ask me, the 2008 shopping season as well. The video iPod is the next click wheel to go multi-touch, but I don't know that will be this year either because Apple wants to make their iPhone more desirable for longer.
I do hope the wheel will stay permanently with all iPods, save for the iTouch of course. I'm reminded of its retro flavour when I twirl my finger on my shirt pocket for Volume.
Also, the click buttons are easily located blind
I do hope the wheel will stay permanently with all iPods, save for the iTouch of course. I'm reminded of its retro flavour when I twirl my finger on my shirt pocket for Volume.
Also, the click buttons are easily located blind
Don't start calling it the iTouch - that was a hoax, and the name sux.
Don't start calling it the iTouch - that was a hoax, and the name sux.
It does suck I agree - Huh, I thought no one would notice - but if Cisco declines the waltz
My guess right now is that the true video iPod will arrive September 2007 as part of the yearly hardware "refresh" of iPod models.
It will have the thickness of the current 80 GB 5.5G iPod, but offer a 16:9 aspect ratio display, touchscreen controls and display resolution about the same as the original Macintosh (around 512 x 342)! 8) It won't be cheap, though--I can guess about US$499 for the 80 GB model and US$599 for the 120 GB model.
I think the Video iPod will use the exact same screen as the iPhone but will be a slightly smaller device not having all the cell phone/wireless stuff in it. It will be thicker due to the 60GB and 100GB hard drives though. It should have many of the iPhone features such as photo viewing, coverflow, etc. Don't forget games. That was not mentioned during the keynote but I'm sure the iPhone will have them too. The interface can mimick various game controllers. I'm thinking $399 and $499.
I think that we will see a 100gig iPod with the iPhone interface within two months. Apple would be foolish to wait on this.
I kind of hope that they keep the physical clickwheel on the 30/40 gig models, as it is probably a lot easier to fiddle with the volume in bed in the dark with a physical clickwheel.
Apple must consider this. The iPod video as opposed to the iPhone is about minimal handling. On the move it?s designed to be hung down there with your finger twirling the wheel blind on volume and selection. The wheel is old school