Apple's Mac market share slipped during Dec. quarter - report

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Citing preliminary data from market research firm IDC, an analyst for PiperJaffray said Thursday that Apple's worldwide share of the personal computer market fell to 2.4 percent during the three-month period ending December, down from a 2.8 percent share two quarters earlier.



"While Apple gained share year-over-year (from 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent), it lost share sequentially," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "Mac market share is generally higher in September quarters, due to strong education-related sales."



The analyst said he expects Apple's market share will "bounce back" following the release of Adobe Creative Suite 3.0 in the April timeframe. "We estimate 15 percent of Apple's installed base are pro Adobe users, waiting for CS3 to be released before buying a new Mac," he told clients.



Munster, in his note, went on to say that a Mac unit sensitivity analysis suggests that if Mac market share averages 3.5 percent throughout the 2007 calendar year, his fiscal 2007 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate of $2.59 would be $0.44 or 14 percent too low.



As a result, the analyst increased his fiscal 2007 EPS estimate to $3.03 and also upped his price target on shares of Apple to $124 from $99.



"The Mac number was respectable, profitability is at record levels, and the iPod number increased Apple's footprint by 29 percent," he said of the company's fiscal first quarter results released Wednesday. "More iPod users result in future sales of related products including Mac, iPhone, and AppleTV."
«13456710

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 198
    Apple has officially become a media/infotainment company with computers on the side, folks! Maybe the claim that "people are switching in droves" is a bit of drinking of one's own kool-aid.
  • Reply 2 of 198
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,523member
    I know analysts will continue to do these Mac v PC market share statistics from now till Hell freezes over... However, I think it is time Mac sales were simply seen as numbers that stand on there own.



    To compare the number of Macs to the number of boxes that can run anything but OS X is a mathematical waste of time these days. If China was to start turning out cheap PCs for every kid in China next week the percentage of Macs out there would be 0.1% overnight (OK, I am making these numbers up of course but you get my point).



    Many years ago I watched Steve Jobs on stage refer to BMW as a role model. He said something along these lines ... Does BMW worry how many Fords are out there and measure its success as a percentage market share relative to Ford sales? I think not. They make a great product at a higher margin and have a loyal following and sell more each year and increase profits. That's what counts.



    Plus the market saturation level is very low for all things Mac (maybe not iPod) so the opportunities are almost endless. What's not to be optimistic about?
  • Reply 3 of 198
    [email protected] BMW analogy again.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I know analysts will continue to do these Mac v PC market share statistics from now till Hell freezes over... However, I think it is time Mac sales were simply seen as numbers that stand on there own.



    To compare the number of Macs to the number of boxes that can run anything but OS X is a mathematical waste of time these days. If China was to start turning out cheap PCs for every kid in China next week the percentage of Macs out there would be 0.1% overnight (OK, I am making these numbers up of course but you get my point).



    Many years ago I watched Steve Jobs on stage refer to BMW as a role model. He said something along these lines ... Does BMW worry how many Fords are out there and measure its success as a percentage market share relative to Ford sales? I think not. They make a great product at a higher margin and have a loyal following and sell more each year and increase profits. That's what counts.



    Plus the market saturation level is very low for all things Mac (maybe not iPod) so the opportunities are almost endless. What's not to be optimistic about?



  • Reply 4 of 198
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,523member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Apple has officially become a media/infotainment company with computers on the side, folks! Maybe the claim that "people are switching in droves" is a bit of drinking of one's own kool-aid.



    OK, so this is your mental picture is it...?



    Scene: Apple HQ :



    Steve: "Bad news guys, the millions of people who had PCs before but recently bought a MacBook or a MacBook Pro just vaporized. No trace. The profits from the sales just got erased from our bank account and they have no memory of ever owning a Mac and realizing how much better than a PC with Windows they were"



    Phill: "How can that be Steve?"



    Steve: "Well Phil, journalists just calculated our over all market percentage fell by a whole half a percentage point, that's millions of users, so they must have ... right?"
  • Reply 5 of 198
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I know analysts will continue to do these Mac v PC market share statistics from now till Hell freezes over... However, I think it is time Mac sales were simply seen as numbers that stand on there own.



    To compare the number of Macs to the number of boxes that can run anything but OS X is a mathematical waste of time these days. If China was to start turning out cheap PCs for every kid in China next week the percentage of Macs out there would be 0.1% overnight (OK, I am making these numbers up of course but you get my point).



    Many years ago I watched Steve Jobs on stage refer to BMW as a role model. He said something along these lines ... Does BMW worry how many Fords are out there and measure its success as a percentage market share relative to Ford sales? I think not. They make a great product at a higher margin and have a loyal following and sell more each year and increase profits. That's what counts.



    Plus the market saturation level is very low for all things Mac (maybe not iPod) so the opportunities are almost endless. What's not to be optimistic about?





    'cept there are some dumb developers out there that look at relative numbers as opposed to absolute numbers. Instead of going "Hey, we'd be developing in a fairly competition-free market for about 30 million rich bastards", they go "No way, man - no way we're developing for 0.1% of the market" without even considering that this 0.1% probably have the money *and* the interest of buying compared to the "Chinese kids" that grab the least expensive PC out there and proceed to pirate the software they need. They *think* they're grabbing 99.9% of the market but in reality the numbers are divided 4-5 times because of competition and again because a lot of PCs out there belong to emerging countries full of people that aren't likely to buy any software.



    Then again, those dumb developers probably should stay away from our platform. And not everyone can be smart...there's gotta be a balance between smart and dumb, right?
  • Reply 6 of 198
    The keywords are: preliminary data, Piper Jaffrey, analyst. Who cares about that kind of stuff? ("Our research has shown 17,5 million ipods in the first quarter." )
  • Reply 7 of 198
    iqatedoiqatedo Posts: 1,762member
    So now it's 2.4% of the market that has a clue!



    I very much doubt the value or accuracy of these market share claims given the lifetime of Mac systems. My 4 year old (at least) Mac is running 10.4.8 and is very happy doing so.



    By the way, I recently toured a renowned lab in the US and noted two pieces of (high-tech) hardware being driven by Apple II computers, one of which was still using a monitor of the same generation.



    It's interesting (to me at least) that we now have Apple Inc and Apple Corps, Apple and Apple with less distinction between names now that one of them has dropped the 'Computer' word. They must have patched things up!
  • Reply 8 of 198
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I know analysts will continue to do these Mac v PC market share statistics from now till Hell freezes over... However, I think it is time Mac sales were simply seen as numbers that stand on there own.



    To compare the number of Macs to the number of boxes that can run anything but OS X is a mathematical waste of time these days. If China was to start turning out cheap PCs for every kid in China next week the percentage of Macs out there would be 0.1% overnight (OK, I am making these numbers up of course but you get my point).



    Many years ago I watched Steve Jobs on stage refer to BMW as a role model. He said something along these lines ... Does BMW worry how many Fords are out there and measure its success as a percentage market share relative to Ford sales? I think not. They make a great product at a higher margin and have a loyal following and sell more each year and increase profits. That's what counts.



    Plus the market saturation level is very low for all things Mac (maybe not iPod) so the opportunities are almost endless. What's not to be optimistic about?



    I know that some people refuse to admit that marketshare is important. But it is.



    Computers are NOT cars, and I wish those stupid analogs would stop.



    Computers need software, and software depends on computer platform. Developers, unless they work on a platform because of a preference, which most don't do, will go for marketshare.



    It isn't just a matter of numbers, it's also a matter of percentage, and costs.



    The costs for developing, supporting, and marketing to 5% of the possible user base can cost almost as much as doing the same for the other 90+%.



    While some programs are used much more on Macs per capita, it may not make up for those costs.



    Limited software limits computer sales, and the circle goes round and round.



    As marketshare rises, so does available software (and hardware).



    If the computer sales rise, but do so at the same speed as the larger market, the overall balance remains the same.



    If, as had happened for too many years for Apple until recently, sales dropped slightly over the years, or remained about the same, while the rest of the market expanded, the marketshare dropped, from about 12% to 3%. We lost developers at an alarming rate.
  • Reply 9 of 198
    It would appear to be correct analysis but with a caveat.



    If the PC market as a whole has grown in the last quarter, then Apple's market share will have decreased because unit sales of Macs dipped slightly from 1,610,000 in Q4 to 1,606,000 in Q1 2007.



    The Q4 figures were exceptionally high due to two sales of 50,000 Macs apparently as was noted in the results. If you take a longer term look at market share, over the year, or discount those exceptional sales, you get a much different picture.



    I did a graph over in the other thread...



    http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...4&postcount=73



    As you can see, sales have been ramping up quickly but flattened out in Q4/Q1. I don't have quarterly figures for the entire PC industry but they certainly haven't been ramping up like that.
  • Reply 10 of 198
    rickagrickag Posts: 1,626member
    Time for the xMac.



    Who said that, ducks head runs for cover
  • Reply 11 of 198
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Apple has officially become a media/infotainment company with computers on the side, folks!



    From the standpoint of both revenue and earnings, you're just plain wrong.



    From AppleInsider's story earlier this week on the earnings conference call:



    "Apple shipped a total of 1.606 million Macs during the quarter, representing 43 percent of the company's total revenue. This included sales of 969,000 notebooks and 637,000 desktop systems."



    Apple is definitely plunging deeper in the consumer electronics business, and Apple's percentages of revenue and earnings from Mac sales will probably slide as the other areas grow faster, but don't confuse sizzle with steak.
  • Reply 12 of 198
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    The costs for developing, supporting, and marketing to 5% of the possible user base can cost almost as much as doing the same for the other 90+%.



    But that's user base, not marketshare. Market share is based on how many NEW computers have been sold, not how many people are using them.



    If you've two products and one has a lifespan of 2 years before it falls apart and another 4 years then it's quite possible the longer living product has a larger user base but less market share.



    It's also possible that user base isn't growing if you're not selling to new customers.



    I'd guess that 2007 will see the PC market share increasing quite a lot as users are forced to upgrade to newer computers to just run Vista. That doesn't mean the user base will grow.



    Apple on the other hand is at pains to point out that over half of it's sales go to new Mac users, so in the last quarter, the user base grew by 800,000 new Mac users by Apple's reckoning. I'd imagine many of those came from Windows so there's potential there for the Windows user base to actually be falling at a time when it's market share is much higher than the Mac. Then again, without Windows sales figures at hand, I'd guess the Windows user base is still increasing as 800,000 switchers would probably barely make a dent in it's growth.



    Anyone got Windows sales figures? I wonder how many switchers it'd need to make the Windows user base decline.
  • Reply 13 of 198
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,523member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post


    Anyone got Windows sales figures? I wonder how many switchers it'd need to make the Windows user base decline.



    Who cares?



    So long as Mac base grows
  • Reply 14 of 198
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,523member
    OK a bit of humor here ... Let's try this ... only compare Mac sales to those of PCs with legal OS and that ... wait for it, works flawlessly. That should even up the numbers.



    Or another ... again just being silly here .. (well the stats are), how about the number of Mac users that 'love' their Mac v PC users that really 'love' their PC?
  • Reply 15 of 198
    pt123pt123 Posts: 696member
    The iPod works with the PC and is USB only, no more firewire. Appletv works with the PC. iTunes works on the PC. The marketshare numbers just isn't that important anymore, especially sice the Intel Macs run Windows via Parallels or boot camp.
  • Reply 16 of 198
    The comment about China is spot on -- where worldwide market share of anything is concerned. Their middle-class is exploding at a time when ours is rapidly contracting.



    As far as this report goes, I liken it to those who bitch because Apple didn't put a potato peeler or a blowtorch port on the newest model, which sends Apple investors running for the doors... for about five minutes.



    It was not too far back in my memory banks that Apple was only shipping about .6-.7M computers each quarter. I'd say their growth is phenomenal.
  • Reply 17 of 198
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,523member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jcatma61 View Post


    The comment about China is spot on -- where worldwide market share of anything is concerned. Their middle-class is exploding at a time when ours is rapidly contracting.



    As far as this report goes, I liken it to those who bitch because Apple didn't put a potato peeler or a blowtorch port on the newest model, which sends Apple investors running for the doors... for about five minutes.



    It was not too far back in my memory banks that Apple was only shipping about .6-.7M computers each quarter. I'd say their growth is phenomenal.



    Right on! I have a load od AAPL and bought at $32. I am holding for many years to come too. You ain't seen nothing yet! 8)
  • Reply 18 of 198
    dm3dm3 Posts: 168member
    I don't understand all the conflicting reports.



    Apple says they grew at 28%, 3x the industry. That means that they grew marketshare, plane and simple. If they're growing faster than the industry they're gaining marketshare. How can an analyst say something different?



    In the US is was much stronger, Apple said they grew 30+% in the US and the US market grew at 3%. That would be a huge market share gain.



    I read another report this morning that said Apple market share was up to 4.7%. I don't remember the qualifiers. It was probably in the US market.



    Still, any of these numbers contradict the notion that Apple is losing marketshare. Is this from the same people that said iTunes sales are down?
  • Reply 19 of 198
    dm3dm3 Posts: 168member
    I don't understand all the conflicting reports.



    Apple says they grew at 28%, 3x the industry. That means that they grew marketshare, plain and simple. If they're growing faster than the industry they're gaining marketshare. How can an analyst say something different?



    In the US it was much stronger, Apple said they grew 30+% in the US and the US market grew at 3%. That would be a huge market share gain.



    I read another report this morning that said Apple market share was up to 4.7%. I don't remember the qualifiers. It was probably in the US market.



    Still, any of these numbers contradict the notion that Apple is losing marketshare. Is this from the same people that said iTunes sales are down?
  • Reply 20 of 198
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post


    But that's user base, not marketshare. Market share is based on how many NEW computers have been sold, not how many people are using them.



    If you've two products and one has a lifespan of 2 years before it falls apart and another 4 years then it's quite possible the longer living product has a larger user base but less market share.



    It's also possible that user base isn't growing if you're not selling to new customers.



    I'd guess that 2007 will see the PC market share increasing quite a lot as users are forced to upgrade to newer computers to just run Vista. That doesn't mean the user base will grow.



    Apple on the other hand is at pains to point out that over half of it's sales go to new Mac users, so in the last quarter, the user base grew by 800,000 new Mac users by Apple's reckoning. I'd imagine many of those came from Windows so there's potential there for the Windows user base to actually be falling at a time when it's market share is much higher than the Mac. Then again, without Windows sales figures at hand, I'd guess the Windows user base is still increasing as 800,000 switchers would probably barely make a dent in it's growth.



    Anyone got Windows sales figures? I wonder how many switchers it'd need to make the Windows user base decline.



    I know, we've gone through this before.



    But, we still look to that 5 to 6%. If we had real evidence, rather than an assumption that Apple's actual userbase was significantly larger than the marketshare, the it would be different. But we don't.



    Also, it's true, though I don't have the studies at my fingertips to back it up, that people just buying a computer buy most of the software at full, not upgrade prices. And, as we know wery well, not everyone buys upgrades after they buy that new software.



    That's another reason why marketshare is so important, more so than userbase.



    It's why Jobs, in interviews, keeps talking about marketshare. He knows.
Sign In or Register to comment.