this graphic is not worth being on AppleInsider. Please show also a graphic of the previous 10 years..
The point to the chart was not to show that this would actually happen, but to illustrate the changing fortunes of the two companies.
At one time, MS was growing much faster than it is now. right now, it it pacing indusrty growth.
Apple has now outraced that growth for some time.
If Apple can continue to do that, then they will bypass MS at some point.
I've felt, for at least the past two years, that Apple would outgrow MS.
The reason why MS has gotten itself into other areas, such as the XBOX, and online gaming, is because it knows that as industry growth flattens out, their sales will as well, and their outragiously high profits will do so as well.
Apple had luck with the iPod when it first came out, but was able to take advantage of it. Now, Apple has a brand that they are using to move into other places. This is smart.
If they can leverage their name, they can grow significantly over the next few years.
They are still small enough that continued 25% annualized growth for the next few years is not out of the question. But, it may require them to move into other lines of goods after that.
We may see them moving where we don't expect them to.
So you're basically arguing in favor if it happening, though you don't know it. What you're saying is that it's likely for MS to stagnate due to its size. Apple however has 1/3 to 1/2 the revenue though, so they have room.
Exactly!
Hp was a small company once. Now they are one of the largest. Those of us who knew them in the mid-late '60's would never have predicted this.
But, when Hp said that they intended to become one of the largest computer suppliers, we had the chance to believe. That was 30 years ago. At the time, they had almost nothing. now, their sales are around $100 billion.
"Microsoft?s revenues have grown approximately 60 percent from just under $30B in 2002 to over $44B in 2006".
Is my calculator wrong? How is growth from "just under" 30 to "over" 44, an increase of 60%?
Even if you went extreme and took "just under" 30 as meaning 29, and "over" 44 meaning 45, that's still only an increase of 55.17% (or "just over").
If you get slightly more realistic and took "just under" 30 to be 29.5 and "over" 44 to be 44.5, then your increase is "just under" 51%. There's no 60% about it, mister.
Oh, and look, if I type 58008 and then turn the calculator upside-down...
What i've NEVER understood is this. Why do non-stock holders get so excited when their favorite company is making record breaking profits? Doesn't that directly say that these people are charging too much for something?
It just seems that people forget that they are consumers. And as consumers then we should be upset that we're overpaying for products rather than praising a company for their ability to mark up a product and con their loyal followers.
No. It means that people are happy that the company is strong.
30% margins, and Net profits of 12% are good, but not unusual for a successful company. Look at Cisco, or others. You will see double the profit.
Don't look at companies who are skating the razor thin margins of profitability as the hoped for norm. When Apple was doing that, their ability to innovate was severely compromised. When Jobs came back, he dropped several of Apple's most profitable lines, scanners, printers, and crt monitors, because Apple couldn't afford the high overhead of R&D they required to maintain their place.
Instead, they had to focus.
Now, Apple can afford to experiment with several technologies, and enhance their patent portfolio, which they weren't able to do during the dry spell.
So, what would you like to see? Products that are 5% cheaper, with Apple barely making a profit?
....Microsoft went from 0% of the MP3 player market to 2% in just one year. Following this trend, in only 50 years Microsoft will own 100% of the MP3 player market!
Its not angry responses its just people are actually realistic and the curve on that graph is insane. It would be nice if it was true not because im a MS fan or a Apple fan but compitition breeds innovation and it also breeds pricing that is far more competitive.
However I believe ipods have peaked and can do nothing but drop in sales, the Mac/Intel craze is over any news is no big deal anymore, the iphone will fail badly and so will itv.
2006 is about as good as Apple will ever see. My prediction which isnt worth any more than anyone elses. Three years from now for all we know both could be out of business.
Your assertions are utterly unsupported and with the exception of the iTV, highly unlikely.
1. "The iPod has peaked" Uhh...they were saying that when they were selling 6 million a quarter. Now they're selling 20 million a quarter. It hasn't peaked...it's only getting bigger. Exponential growth may slow, but sales will continue to increase at a high rate. At least, that's what the professional analysts say.
2. Apple is making progress with the Mactel combination. There has been a lot of news about them being successful in switching windows users over. all of a sudden we have no more performance gap, no more stupid bakeoffs and one less reason to use Windows. The only reason you posted that statement was because after a year you don't read it on MacNN anymore.
3. What is the basis for your predictions of failure for the iPhone and iTV? I have to disagree with you on at least the first. My feeling is that it will be an ridiculous success due to the potential Cingular service deal. And really, we've seen expensive iPods sell, so I don't think it's overpriced. The thing is that it's interface is amazing compared to what's out there. And unlike when the Newton was introduced, Apple now has the brand recognition, retail presence and business sense to pull it off.
I do wonder about the iTV. I think it's at a good price point, but I just question whether or not people are ready to make that leap, especially for what, right now, are movies and TV shows that aren't in HD.
That said, I think your predictions are, sorry, worth far far less than anyone else's. You can't just make crap up and call it an opinion.
....Microsoft went from 0% of the MP3 player market to 2% in just one year. Following this trend, in only 50 years Microsoft will own 100% of the MP3 player market!
exactly what I'm pointing out.. It's guessing, or wishful thinking, but not worth to be on AppleInsider.. more like ThinkSecret
This is a very probable prediction, though not based on his mathematics. One word: iPhone.
iPhone will not only bring new revenue, it will also create an "halo" effect much like the iPod but with a much, much bigger sphere of influence, thus increasing Apple's user base, hence more products sold.
And let's not forget the the obvious, MS has nowhere to grow and Apple does.
What i've NEVER understood is this. Why do non-stock holders get so excited when their favorite company is making record breaking profits? Doesn't that directly say that these people are charging too much for something?
It just seems that people forget that they are consumers. And as consumers then we should be upset that we're overpaying for products rather than praising a company for their ability to mark up a product and con their loyal followers.
What a great point! (Spoken as both a consumer and stockholder, struggling wth the cosmic question: do I want a piece of the 'consumer surplus' or would I rather get it in the form of 'producer surplus?').
What i've NEVER understood is this. Why do non-stock holders get so excited when their favorite company is making record breaking profits? Doesn't that directly say that these people are charging too much for something?
How does "record breaking profits" equate to "charging too much"? Is it possible that they could be selling more products hence having record breaking profits?
this graphic is not worth being on AppleInsider. Please show also a graphic of the previous 10 years..
Enjoy ...Not 10 years, but historical factual data. Previously posted, but may be useful to reflect again. Sorry about the 1x10^x notation, it was the only way to make the curves sit next to each other.
.
This is MY EXTRAPOLATION previously posted. In this case for stock value. Of course, I was conservative and extrapolated linear not exponential growth 8)
Revenue is not *that* important, it's profits!! I predict by 2010 we'll have so many mac fanbois and fangirrls that they'll voluntarily work for next to peanuts in China just to try out all the latest gear, AND to stop being endlessly tormented by new product rumors. This will send Apple's profit margins sky high!!
The new slaves: Diehard Fans of Apple,Inc. Will work for just a chance to touch a new Mac or to touch one of the black turtlenecks Steve has used in a keynote.
Comments
could just readjust my calculations for the price of a new Mac Pro using their creative stats, I would
order one immediately. Now don't go off the deep end. I am pro Apple and would like to see them
not only corner the market, but put Microsoft in its place. Apple has the superior product compared to
Microsoft. With that in mind, let's stay with reality and keep a good thing going by continuing to
produce superior products. The numbers will fall where they will, but not in the time frame outlined.
If I'm wrong, I'll gladly recant my opinion.
this graphic is not worth being on AppleInsider. Please show also a graphic of the previous 10 years..
The point to the chart was not to show that this would actually happen, but to illustrate the changing fortunes of the two companies.
At one time, MS was growing much faster than it is now. right now, it it pacing indusrty growth.
Apple has now outraced that growth for some time.
If Apple can continue to do that, then they will bypass MS at some point.
I've felt, for at least the past two years, that Apple would outgrow MS.
The reason why MS has gotten itself into other areas, such as the XBOX, and online gaming, is because it knows that as industry growth flattens out, their sales will as well, and their outragiously high profits will do so as well.
Apple had luck with the iPod when it first came out, but was able to take advantage of it. Now, Apple has a brand that they are using to move into other places. This is smart.
If they can leverage their name, they can grow significantly over the next few years.
They are still small enough that continued 25% annualized growth for the next few years is not out of the question. But, it may require them to move into other lines of goods after that.
We may see them moving where we don't expect them to.
So you're basically arguing in favor if it happening, though you don't know it. What you're saying is that it's likely for MS to stagnate due to its size. Apple however has 1/3 to 1/2 the revenue though, so they have room.
Exactly!
Hp was a small company once. Now they are one of the largest. Those of us who knew them in the mid-late '60's would never have predicted this.
But, when Hp said that they intended to become one of the largest computer suppliers, we had the chance to believe. That was 30 years ago. At the time, they had almost nothing. now, their sales are around $100 billion.
Is my calculator wrong? How is growth from "just under" 30 to "over" 44, an increase of 60%?
Even if you went extreme and took "just under" 30 as meaning 29, and "over" 44 meaning 45, that's still only an increase of 55.17% (or "just over").
If you get slightly more realistic and took "just under" 30 to be 29.5 and "over" 44 to be 44.5, then your increase is "just under" 51%. There's no 60% about it, mister.
Oh, and look, if I type 58008 and then turn the calculator upside-down...
What i've NEVER understood is this. Why do non-stock holders get so excited when their favorite company is making record breaking profits? Doesn't that directly say that these people are charging too much for something?
It just seems that people forget that they are consumers. And as consumers then we should be upset that we're overpaying for products rather than praising a company for their ability to mark up a product and con their loyal followers.
No. It means that people are happy that the company is strong.
30% margins, and Net profits of 12% are good, but not unusual for a successful company. Look at Cisco, or others. You will see double the profit.
Don't look at companies who are skating the razor thin margins of profitability as the hoped for norm. When Apple was doing that, their ability to innovate was severely compromised. When Jobs came back, he dropped several of Apple's most profitable lines, scanners, printers, and crt monitors, because Apple couldn't afford the high overhead of R&D they required to maintain their place.
Instead, they had to focus.
Now, Apple can afford to experiment with several technologies, and enhance their patent portfolio, which they weren't able to do during the dry spell.
So, what would you like to see? Products that are 5% cheaper, with Apple barely making a profit?
I think this is true. Why? I don't know, I just want to believe.
It is true. It has to be. I read it on the inter-web.
Its not angry responses its just people are actually realistic and the curve on that graph is insane. It would be nice if it was true not because im a MS fan or a Apple fan but compitition breeds innovation and it also breeds pricing that is far more competitive.
However I believe ipods have peaked and can do nothing but drop in sales, the Mac/Intel craze is over any news is no big deal anymore, the iphone will fail badly and so will itv.
2006 is about as good as Apple will ever see. My prediction which isnt worth any more than anyone elses. Three years from now for all we know both could be out of business.
Your assertions are utterly unsupported and with the exception of the iTV, highly unlikely.
1. "The iPod has peaked" Uhh...they were saying that when they were selling 6 million a quarter. Now they're selling 20 million a quarter. It hasn't peaked...it's only getting bigger. Exponential growth may slow, but sales will continue to increase at a high rate. At least, that's what the professional analysts say.
2. Apple is making progress with the Mactel combination. There has been a lot of news about them being successful in switching windows users over. all of a sudden we have no more performance gap, no more stupid bakeoffs and one less reason to use Windows. The only reason you posted that statement was because after a year you don't read it on MacNN anymore.
3. What is the basis for your predictions of failure for the iPhone and iTV? I have to disagree with you on at least the first. My feeling is that it will be an ridiculous success due to the potential Cingular service deal. And really, we've seen expensive iPods sell, so I don't think it's overpriced. The thing is that it's interface is amazing compared to what's out there. And unlike when the Newton was introduced, Apple now has the brand recognition, retail presence and business sense to pull it off.
I do wonder about the iTV. I think it's at a good price point, but I just question whether or not people are ready to make that leap, especially for what, right now, are movies and TV shows that aren't in HD.
That said, I think your predictions are, sorry, worth far far less than anyone else's. You can't just make crap up and call it an opinion.
....Microsoft went from 0% of the MP3 player market to 2% in just one year. Following this trend, in only 50 years Microsoft will own 100% of the MP3 player market!
exactly what I'm pointing out.. It's guessing, or wishful thinking, but not worth to be on AppleInsider.. more like ThinkSecret
iPhone will not only bring new revenue, it will also create an "halo" effect much like the iPod but with a much, much bigger sphere of influence, thus increasing Apple's user base, hence more products sold.
And let's not forget the the obvious, MS has nowhere to grow and Apple does.
He said 2009 which hasn't even gotten here yet. Sarcasm......
Since I myself am from the future, I didn't catch that.
What i've NEVER understood is this. Why do non-stock holders get so excited when their favorite company is making record breaking profits? Doesn't that directly say that these people are charging too much for something?
It just seems that people forget that they are consumers. And as consumers then we should be upset that we're overpaying for products rather than praising a company for their ability to mark up a product and con their loyal followers.
What a great point! (Spoken as both a consumer and stockholder, struggling wth the cosmic question: do I want a piece of the 'consumer surplus' or would I rather get it in the form of 'producer surplus?').
Since I myself am from the future, I didn't catch that.
Ah! Now, that explains a lot.
What i've NEVER understood is this. Why do non-stock holders get so excited when their favorite company is making record breaking profits? Doesn't that directly say that these people are charging too much for something?
How does "record breaking profits" equate to "charging too much"? Is it possible that they could be selling more products hence having record breaking profits?
Lepoard - $130, Vista - $100-$680, http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech...hives/915.html Priceless!!!!
Leopard Server will be more than $130.
Leopard Server will be more than $130.
No, not really. The $499 version includes, I think, 10 seats, that's $50 a seat.
The $999 version has unlimited seats.
Compare that to MS's server product, and even Linux from Red Hat. Both far more expensive.
Since I myself am from the future, I didn't catch that.
So how is AppleTV doing in the future?
this graphic is not worth being on AppleInsider. Please show also a graphic of the previous 10 years..
Enjoy
.
This is MY EXTRAPOLATION previously posted. In this case for stock value. Of course, I was conservative and extrapolated linear not exponential growth 8)
The new slaves: Diehard Fans of Apple,Inc. Will work for just a chance to touch a new Mac or to touch one of the black turtlenecks Steve has used in a keynote.