Apple estimates raised at ThinkEquity ahead of Leopard launch
ThinkEquity Partners LCC on Monday joined a chorus of Wall Street firms predicting that Apple Inc. will be ready to deliver its next-generation Leopard operating system to market "in the next few weeks."
"With the Leopard launch (Mac OS X v 10.5) just around the corner, we have revisited our Apple revenue and earnings power estimates in light of the ever-larger Mac OS X user base," analyst Jonathan Hoopes wrote in a note to clients.
Hoopes, who believes the software will "hit the market sometime in the next few weeks," raised his fiscal 2007 estimates on the Cupertino-based company as a result. He's now forecasting the Mac maker to earn $3.24 per share on sales of 24.4 billion (up from $3.06 and $23.6 billion), representing 43 percent earnings growth and 26.3 percent sales growth year-over-year.
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users, and we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds, the release of Leopard, and a CS3 pro catalyst," the analyst told clients. "Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
Like other analysts who've weighed in on the subject in recent weeks, Hoopes said it's his belief that Adobe's Creative Suite 3.0 software suites will hit the market around the same time as Leopard. He estimates Apple's creative professional user base to be approximately 4 to 5 million strong, many of which may be awaiting the software roll-out before upgrading their Mac hardware systems.
"We believe many creative professionals prefer waiting to waitlisting when it comes to upgrading their business-critical systems," the analyst wrote. "Moreover, the release of CS3 should help unlock pent-up demand among this user group."
Shares of Apple were trading up $0.05 to $88.02 in early morning trading on the Nasdaq stock market.
"With the Leopard launch (Mac OS X v 10.5) just around the corner, we have revisited our Apple revenue and earnings power estimates in light of the ever-larger Mac OS X user base," analyst Jonathan Hoopes wrote in a note to clients.
Hoopes, who believes the software will "hit the market sometime in the next few weeks," raised his fiscal 2007 estimates on the Cupertino-based company as a result. He's now forecasting the Mac maker to earn $3.24 per share on sales of 24.4 billion (up from $3.06 and $23.6 billion), representing 43 percent earnings growth and 26.3 percent sales growth year-over-year.
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users, and we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds, the release of Leopard, and a CS3 pro catalyst," the analyst told clients. "Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
Like other analysts who've weighed in on the subject in recent weeks, Hoopes said it's his belief that Adobe's Creative Suite 3.0 software suites will hit the market around the same time as Leopard. He estimates Apple's creative professional user base to be approximately 4 to 5 million strong, many of which may be awaiting the software roll-out before upgrading their Mac hardware systems.
"We believe many creative professionals prefer waiting to waitlisting when it comes to upgrading their business-critical systems," the analyst wrote. "Moreover, the release of CS3 should help unlock pent-up demand among this user group."
Shares of Apple were trading up $0.05 to $88.02 in early morning trading on the Nasdaq stock market.
Comments
ThinkEquity Partners LCC on Monday joined a chorus of Wall Street firms predicting that Apple Inc. will be ready to deliver its next-generation Leopard operating system to market "in the next few weeks."
Obviously they've not visited this forum.
I've seen estimates of up to, and even exceeding, $30 billion, though that would be extreme.
just personally, i hope for a somewhat early release. my computer fund is finally grown enough to warrent a purchase and i would be happy to spend it in june or so. but, i would not want a leapard that is just out in june or may. if we could get it out early and to many people, the bugs that are inevitable will be more quickly ironed-out. these sort of words have me encouraged, but... i am sure that my high spirits are unwarranted in the highest...
I'm not looking forward to an early release.
This release is too important to Apple. With the lack of progress so far that we are seeing, an early release will have to be buggy.
If this release is buggy, a lot of negative publicity will follow, because of its juxtaposition to Vista, that it hasn't gotten before.
Apple must attempt to release 10.5 in as pristine a fashion as possible. I would much rather wait until the Dev Conf.
I don't understand the eagerness. What's a couple of months going to do to someone's life? Whoever buys this will have it for two more years.
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users, and we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds, the release of Leopard, and a CS3 pro catalyst," the analyst told clients. "Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
Wow! An analyst who actually sees the big picture.
We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users
more like
We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade requirement' among PC users
With the lack of progress so far that we are seeing, an early release will have to be buggy.
We, the general public and such rumor sites, I believe don't have the full picture of what Apple is up to. My thought is Apple will deliver when it is ready, not when analysts think or want it to be ready. I'm still sticking with WWDC as being the date, though I wouldn't put it past Apple to have an event prior to WWDC (mid/late-April) debuting Leopard.
more like
But only for some. Though, even with the Mac, many people wait to upgrade their machines. When a new OS version comes out, then they do it.
We, the general public and such rumor sites, I believe don't have the full picture of what Apple is up to. My thought is Apple will deliver when it is ready, not when analysts think or want it to be ready. I'm still sticking with WWDC as being the date, though I wouldn't put it past Apple to have an event prior to WWDC (mid/late-April) debuting Leopard.
Sometimes I wonder if Apple has the big picture!
I also think that the release will be during, or at most, just a bit before, the conference.
Unless Apple is suddenly making amazing progress, I think that an April date is out, unless it's at the very end of the month, and that's optimistic, if that's the word.
It takes over a week, and as much as two to get from a golden master to a shipping product, plus time to get it to the retailers. That can be three weeks.
If Apple releases it at the end of April, it will have to be finished by the first week of the month. That gives Apple no more than three and a half weeks. I don't see how they can do it without dropping features, as MS has done, and as they did with 10.4. Unless those features are completely modular, and as long as other features that must be released don't depend upon them, it can be done. But, otherwise, no.
With all the bugs we are seeing, and without all of the features operational, I just don't see how Apple can get it out the door so fast.
Some here have "suggested" that Apple has external and internal tracks for the OS, with the internal one having all of the features working, and most of the bugs quashed, but that's hardly credible.
Developers are under NDA, and even if a bit of info slips out, they have to see what to expect in advance of its release. At least the larger ones do. I wouldn't be surprised if the MS MBU has the same releases that Apple has.
There is another possibility... What if the builds released to outside developers are buggy because Apple is removing these secret features and handing out only the core functionality to outside developers to ensure their code doesn't break? It's unstable not because it is not yet ready. It's unstable because Apple is hacking it for public developers' consumption, and the final build wasn't reallly meant to be distibuted that way
Oh, please!
"Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
Several of my friends have made the switch in the past few months - another one this past weekend, actually. 8)
Also saw Vista for the first time last week. Looks and feels a lot more like XP than I expected. I'm amazed at how MS thinks they can wow the general public with the slightest improvements that are years behind OS X.
Oh, please!
Out of curiosity, why would this not be possible? Apple seems overly paranoid about this release and its features.
My own feelings about Apple's 2007's sales is that they will be higher than that. I can't see less than $26 billion. If Apple comes out with new machines in the not too distant future, with iPods selling at almost 50% higher levels than last year, with the ATv about to appear, decent sales of the iPhone, and good sales of hopefully upgraded software, we might see sales at even higher levels.
I've been pondering a switch (back) to Mac for about two years. Apple already lost me on the desktop but I'd still love a MacBook. I'll also get the iPhone not because I need a new cell phone or iPod, but because it's the sexiest gadget ever. So count me as one PC user willing to spend ~ US$2000 on Apple hardware this year.
I don't buy the 'external', 'internal' builds arguement either. Vista is out and isn't going to change for some time if ever. Why would Apple need to have two builds?
Let me retort with this then... What could be holding back development for so long? OS X is robust and mature and has been for years. What could they be doing to the OS that would cause it to be so unstable? Are the time machine plus the graphic engine changes so complex that they have destabilzed the OS for much longer than expected? Did Apple change course midway through development like MS did? Something fishy is going on here
There is one person on this board that knows the approx. date for the Leopard release and he is the same cat that foretold the Intel swap many months before the release of Intel Macs on this very board.
As far as I know, that guy has been quite so Leopard coming out by the end of April would be a welcomed surprise for me because I like new. But I doubt it will happen.
So, does .9 come out with Leopard?
There is another possibility... What if the builds released to outside developers are buggy because Apple is removing these secret features and handing out only the core functionality to outside developers to ensure their code doesn't break? It's unstable not because it is not yet ready. It's unstable because Apple is hacking it for public developers' consumption, and the final build wasn't reallly meant to be distibuted that way
I think they probably have this much figured out. If they decided to keep something out of the build, they would make sure that doing so was not breaking anything else. The bugs that are being reported are within the released feature set and not of the type "Error component not found".
Out of curiosity, why would this not be possible? Apple seems overly paranoid about this release and its features.
It is in Apple's best interest to delay Leopard than it is to release crap software. There is no valid reason for them to do and every reason for them not to do it.
. What could be holding back development for so long?
Features we don't know about. Bugs. Software features that are dependent on new hardware features that may not be ready or need additional testing (see hmurchison thread). There are plenty of things that can be holding up the release. Remeber how long Vista took to get to market with the vast resources at MS's disposal?